Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261626
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
926 AM MST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A FEW RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FRI-SUN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE ANTICIAPATED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /350 AM MST/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH A FEW RECORDS POSSIBLY BEING TIED OR BROKEN.
SEE TABLE BELOW FOR FORECAST AND RECORD HIGHS FOR SELECTED SITES.

LOCATION   DATE  FORECAST   RECORD
                   HIGH    HIGH/YEAR

FLAGSTAFF  3/27     68      70/1986
           3/28     69      68/1971
           3/29     66      70/1934

WINSLOW    3/27     77      81/1971
           3/28     81      80/1943
           3/29     78      80/1917

PRESCOTT   3/27     76      79/1986
           3/28     78      77/1986
           3/29     75      78/1971

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE LATEST 00Z GFS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
MONDAY-TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLENDED APPROACH AND
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER
OCCASIONAL CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCALLY BREEZY N
TO NE SURFACE WINDS 10-20 KTS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/TM/PETERSON
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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