Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

FXUS65 KFGZ 170407

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
905 PM MST Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will persist through Friday. Showers and
thunderstorms will gradually return late in the weekend and early
next week, as monsoon moisture returns.


.DISCUSSION...Dry westerly flow aloft will persist through the end
of the week. Despite some cooling aloft, the airmass is just too dry
to support convection, especially when coupled with our abnormally
dry boundary layer.

Low pressure will take residence off the west coast over the weekend
and into early next week. With high pressure over Texas and New
Mexico, southerly flow will strengthen during this time period. This
may open the door for moisture to return, but a full blown
monsoonal circulation is not expected. Grids/text products look
good and no updates are needed.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the
24 hour forecast period. SW winds 5-15kts from 18Z-01Z Thursday.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A break in monsoon storms will continue Thursday
and Friday. Expect lower than usual humidity for this time of year,
along with light southwest winds and near normal temperatures.

Saturday through Monday...Limited moisture return Saturday may bring
a slight chance of thunderstorms near the White Mountains. Moisture
is forecast to spread farther north and west by Sunday and Monday
with thunderstorm chances returning to most of northern Arizona.






For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.