Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 150350

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
850 PM MST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A Pacific storm system will bring unsettled weather to
northern Arizona through Monday. Precipitation chances increase
across the area into tonight, then slowly decrease from west to
east through Monday. Fair weather should return on Tuesday, with
an active pattern returning for the end of the week.


No significant changes to the forecast as moisture continues to
stream northward into the high country. Snow showers are expected
to continue around the 6500 - 7000 feet. Some snow accumulations
are expected but will hold off on extending the winter weather
advisory at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION /410 PM MST/...We have a challenging scenario for
this evening. During the afternoon today, snow levels from the rim
country through Flagstaff and up toward the Utah state line have
in places been an estimated 1000 feet lower than numerical models
have forecast it, but not consistently so. For one thing,
convective processes have locally allowed some accumulating snow
beneath convective cells where rain was falling all around them.
Where persistent moderate precipitation has fallen, snow levels
have also been able to lower. All this to say, much of the
elevation range between 6500-7500 feet has observed rain or a
rain/snow mix through the day today (including Bellemont), but a
few locations have observed accumulating snow of 1-2" or so, with
a couple of locations such as just west of Clints Well observing
snow accumulations up to 4".

Regarding this evening, we expect similar conditions to those
observed during the day today, but with snow levels gradually
falling as the low center moves over Sonora and heights decrease.
Snow amounts at any one location in the 6500-7500 foot range are
quite uncertain given the variability in snow levels, but at least
an inch or two of accumulation is expected from the Mogollon Rim
into the White Mountains above 6500-7000 feet. Please prepare for
winter driving conditions in the high country through tonight.
Greater amounts are forecast in the White Mountains, Chuska
Mountains, San Francisco Peaks, and Kaibab Plateau above about
8000 feet. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the
White Mountains through Sunday night.

Sunday, the closed low is forecast to move into far west Texas.
Primarily daytime rain and snow showers are forecast, with light
amounts on average though a few locations could see an additional
2-4". Below average temperatures continue. Additional rain and
snow showers are forecast on Monday, primarily along the eastern
Mogollon Rim and over the White Mountains.

A break in the action is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday as
heights rise in association with a short wave ridge. Mainly clear
conditions are expected with temperatures near to slightly above
average. By Thursday, medium range models agree that the pattern
becomes active again with multiple troughs beginning to affect
northern Arizona. The first is forecast to move through on
Thursday night, with the next expected sometime in the Friday-
Saturday time frame. Plentiful moisture will be associated with
these disturbances, as well as successively colder temperatures.
Late next week is a time period to watch closely.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect scattered to numerous rain
and mountain snow showers over the next 24 hrs producing areas of
MVFR to IFR conditions. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Monday FOR AZZ017.




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