Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 250959

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
259 AM MST SUN SEP 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and mild conditions to persist today, with
locally gusty northeast winds. Starting Monday, low pressure
moving in from Mexico will bring in more moisture resulting in a
chance for showers and thunderstorms for much of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Low pressure aloft was beginning to spin up over
northwest Mexico early this morning as per water vapor satellite
imagery. At the same time, high pressure was building in over
California and Nevada also evident in the water vapor imagery. The
overall setup with high pressure to the northwest and low pressure
to the south will result in dry conditions and locally gusty
northeast to east winds today and tonight, especially along the
Mogollon Rim and locations south. Otherwise, look for seasonable
temperatures and mainly clear skies.

From Monday onward...The weak low over northwest portions of Mexico
will slowly wobble to a position over the California/Arizona
border before being absorbed by the general flow and moving to
the northeast. In response to the position of the low locally
gusty east and then southeast winds will develop on Monday and
Tuesday becoming south to southwest starting Wednesday as the low
moves out of the area. The southeast flow from Monday night into
Tuesday will draw moisture across Arizona. The increasing moisture
will combine with weak upward motion forced by a passing jet
stream max to produce a decent shot at scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Moisture will then linger on Wednesday and for much
of the week with at least a slight chance of showers and storms
continuing. Otherwise, seasonable temperatures will remain under
partly to mostly cloudy skies.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions with mostly clear
skies through the 24hr TAF period. Locally gusty north to northeast
winds along and south of the Mogollon Rim this morning will spread
to all areas this afternoon. While some locations will turn calm
again tonight, many locations (especially along and south of the
Mogollon Rim) will continue to experience N-NE gusts through the
night. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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