Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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242
FXUS65 KFGZ 041012
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
312 AM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS ARIZONA TODAY...BRINGING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. TODAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7...WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE.

ON THURSDAY...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
ARIZONA FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM 15-30 MPH AND
GUSTS FROM 25-45 MPH. THE FASTEST SPEEDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES....AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.  PROGS ALSO SUGGESTING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD ALONG THE AZ NM BORDER AND WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS FOR THIS AREA. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS TO
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES...WHERE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 35-50 MPH ARE
FORECAST. WINDS SPEEDS TO DECREASE BY EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC
AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO BASICALLY SIT OVER ARIZONA. SHOWERS CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
MAX TEMPS TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND VS
LAST. SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000 FEET.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MONDAY`S FORECAST HAS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES.
TUESDAY LOOKING DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10-20
KTS 16Z-02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TURN
STRONGER ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ARIZONA
BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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