Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 282209
AFDFGZ

AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 PM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE UTAH BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM
SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY FOR ALL WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE SHOWING JUST FLAT CUMULUS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN NORTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTORMS ARE JUST NORTH OF THE AZ UT STATE LINE AND MAY DIP ACROSS THE
BORDER BY SUNSET. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RESUME
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY. ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS TO
CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND GAINING 1-3 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE LEVELING OFF. THIS DUE TO THE A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND.

WHILE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA...MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE APPROACHING AZ FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY
AND PUSHING INTO APACHE COUNTY ON SUNDAY. HIGHER PW AMOUNTS, MIXING
RATIOS AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY MOVE INTO THE MOGOLLON RIM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THUS WE HAVE ADDED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS TIME FRAME
THAT RANGE FROM 10 PERCENT AROUND FLAGSTAFF TO 40 PERCENT IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

STARTING MONDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
OUR REGION...BUT DAYTIME SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN 15-25 MPH RANGE
AND HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST NEAR THE UTAH AND NEW MEXICO BORDERS...PRIMARILY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY...A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE
UTAH AND NEW MEXICO BORDERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...41
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...KD



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