Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 142244
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 PM MST SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. A
STRONGER MOISTURE SURGE IS FORECAST STARING WEDNESDAY THUS LOOK FOR
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM ABOVE 6000 FEET. THERE IS STILL TIME THIS AFTERNOON FOR
HEATING AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE PAYSON
AND VERDE VALLEY AREAS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
END BY MID EVENING WITH FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE SIMILAR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BELOW H5) DUE TO LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INSTABILITY AS SEEN THIS WEEKEND...AND THUS
EXPECT SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS IN THIS AREA. AREAS NORTH OF THE
RIM SHOULD HAVE ISOLATED DAY STORM COVERAGE. WIND FLOW ABOVE H5 TO
REMAIN DRY AND WESTERLY.

ON WEDNESDAY...PROGS CONTINUE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE
INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA AND MOVE IT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK THERE IS A MOISTURE
GRADIENT WITH HIGHEST PW VALUES ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. THERE MAY BE AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN AZ. FORECAST POPS ARE INTO THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE FOR YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES DUE TO THIS
FEATURE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SAT...DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. REMNANTS MOISTURE FROM ODILE MAY
INTERACT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST IN
THE FRIDAY /SATURDAY TIME FRAME. STILL A BIT TO FAR OUT TO BE MORE
SPECIFIC.

IN SUMMARY...SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE SURGE INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AZ WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. FOR
FRIDAY...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING ON THE PATH OF ODILES`
LEFTOVER CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE AND ANY INTERACTION WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT DECREASING SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY AFT 03Z THIS EVENING. SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AFT 18Z MON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KGCN/KFLG/KSOW. STRONGEST STORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE WIND GUSTS TO 32KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF















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