Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 201652

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
952 AM MST Tue Jun 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Hot conditions will continue through the week.
Isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms with gusty winds
could develop this afternoon over the higher terrain, mainly from
Flagstaff southeastward. The hottest days this week are expected
Today and Wednesday. Temperatures will begin to trend downward
Thursday into the weekend.


.UPDATE...No major changes made to the short term forecast today.
Thunderstorm coverage should favor the White Mountains area with
strong outflow winds being the main concern. Temperatures will be
at least a degree or two hotter than yesterday with today and
Wednesday still slated to be the hottest days. Heat Warnings and
Advisories remain in effect for all of northern Arizona.


.PREV DISCUSSION /324 AM MST/... Hot and dry conditions are
expected for at least the next week as a ridge of high pressure
continues to build over the American Southwest. Heat Advisories
and Excessive heat warnings remain in place through the bulk of
the work week with slightly cooler but still near critical
temperature values expected through the weekend and into early
next week.

Some mid level moisture will remain in the area today...allowing
for thunderstorm and shower development in the late morning and
early afternoon hours over the higher terrain. The best chance
for dry showers and thunderstorms looks to be over the White
Mountains. While these storms are not expected to produce
significant amounts of moisture, dry gusty winds from any shower
or storm that does develop could reach speeds of around 50 mph.
Moisture looks to dissipate through the rest of the week limiting
chances for Wednesday onward.

Model guidance continues to point to today and Wednesday as the
hottest days of the heat wave with most locations nearing all
time high temperatures over the next 48 hours. Thursday onward
temperatures look to trend cooler each subsequent day. Have left
heat advisories and warnings similar to previous iterations due
the continued similarity between model runs. There is some hint
of a monsoonal moisture plume moving into arizona early next week,
however this is far enough into the future that confidence is not
high that this solution will come to pass.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions are expected for
the next 24 hours though isolated -SHRA/-TSRA may develop into the
early evening, mainly over the higher terrain. Expect gusty winds
near any storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms with little rainfall and
very strong wind gusts possible over the high terrain again today,
and to a lesser extent Wednesday. Temperatures will remain quite
hot, with generally low surface humidity.

Thursday through Saturday...The chances for thunderstorms are
expected to decrease through the end of the week. Daytime
temperatures slowly begin to decrease later this week as well.
Expect breezy southwest to west winds each afternoon.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MST Thursday
FOR AZZ004-007>017-039-040.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday FOR AZZ018-038.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday FOR AZZ005-006-037.




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