Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 280422

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
920 PM MST Thu Apr 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect another round of gusty winds as a cold front
moves south through the state on Friday. This will bring colder
temperatures to the region with a chance of showers mainly across
eastern Arizona into Saturday. Dry weather with a strong warming
trend starts Sunday and continues through the middle of next week.


.Discussion...Winds have decrease some across the area and the
headlines for earlier this evening have been dropped. Did increase
POPs over northern zones this evening as radar was picking up light
echos over the Kaibab Plateau and Glen/Marble Canyon areas. Latest
guidance is showing higher POPS over Apache County on Friday and
will update forecast for this.


.Prev DISCUSSION /252 PM MST/...On Friday, a closed low will develop
near the Four Corners while a cold front moves southward across the
area. Conditions behind the front will be quite dry, but enough
moisture and instability will exist for showers, and few
thunderstorms, across Navajo and Apache Counties. The best chances
for showers will be in the White Mountains and Saint Johns areas.
Daytime temperatures on Friday will be noticeably cooler than today,
with high temperatures between 10 to 20 degrees below normal at most
places. In addition, a strong southwest wind will persist in the
White Mountains region, and another Wind Advisory has been issued
for this area from noon to 8 pm Friday.

Elsewhere, a dry and breezy northwest wind will set up, which is
expected to lead to critical fire weather conditions across
Yavapai County. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect in this area
from 1 pm to 8 pm Friday.

On Saturday, the closed low shifts eastward into New Mexico. As a
result, the best chances for showers will be limited to Apache
County, with only slight chances for showers in Navajo and
northern Gila Counties. A cold northerly wind will persist keeping
daytime temperatures well below normal

Dry weather and a warming trend are forecast from Sunday through
the middle of next week as a strong ridge of high pressure sets up
over the West Coast.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...southwest winds 10-20KTS
will decrease slowly through the night. Winds will increase again
Friday as a frontal boundary moves across Arizona. The strongest
winds are expected east of KFLG. ISOLD -SHRA and higher elevation -
SHSN tonight north of a KGCN-KINW line...increasing in coverage after
16Z mainly east of a KPAN-KINW-KPGA line. Aviation discussion not
updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER... A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Yavapai
County on Friday when northwest winds increase and combine with a
very dry airmass behind a cold front passage. Eastern Arizona will
see scattered showers and thunderstorms along the frontal zone

Saturday through Monday...Cool weather behind the front will remain
in the area through the weekend and into early next week with some
showers possible along the ArizonaNew Mexico line on Saturday.



Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MST Friday FOR AZZ108-137.

Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MST Friday FOR AZZ017.




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