Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221635
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 AM MST FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING.
DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS LOW WILL FILTER INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL DOWN TURN IN STORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS JUST EAST OF FLAGSTAFF THIS MORNING. A BAND OF
SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF A PAGE-FLAGSTAFF-BLACK CANYON CITY. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LOW. MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...DAYTIME HEADING
WILL HELP GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS MOVING EAST THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /345 AM MST/...AT 3 AM...A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE
SHOWERS CONTINUED ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM WILLIAMS TO NORTH OF
WINSLOW...INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
HAVE BEEN 0.10-0.30 INCH IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THE SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER...WHICH IS NOW MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...TO NEAR THE 4-CORNERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTHEAST AZ IN THE VICINITY OF THE
UPPER LOW AND COOLEST MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL ACT TO STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM WEST TO EAST...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY BY
EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A
DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. BY TUESDAY...EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL SHOW THE
NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH DIPPING A BIT FARTHER INTO OUR REGION...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE POISED JUST TO OUR SOUTH TO MOVE BACK
INTO OUR AREA. OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH TOO FAR EAST FOR
THIS TO OCCUR...BUT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEAN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
EURO/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. DECIDED TO INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES FOR
TUESDAY...THEN TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY WED/THU. THERE IS STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY NEXT WEEK...SO STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS LIKELY TO BE WEAK/SUPPRESSED IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN ONE OF THESE SHOWERS...GREATEST AT KINW. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER 02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....MAS/JJ
AVIATION...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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