Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 171705

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1005 AM MST Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Look for warm temperatures and dry conditions again
today with just a few higher level clouds sneaking across
northern Arizona. For Wednesday and Thursday a weak weather
disturbance will combine with increased moisture for partly to
mostly cloudy skies along with a few sprinkles over the higher
terrain. Another passing disturbance will produce breezy
conditions and cooler temperatures on Friday and Saturday.


.UPDATE...Another warm and quiet day across northern Arizona ahead
of a weak disturbance moving through the area Wednesday. The
current forecast looks good with no morning updates needed.


.PREV DISCUSSION /257 AM MST/...Unsettled weather ahead through
Saturday. Nothing major, just a pair of weather disturbances
along the way to bring a slight chance of showers, cooler
temperatures and windy conditions at various times.

For today...High pressure centered over northern Mexico will
continue to dominate the weather across northern Arizona. Look
for high temperatures ranging from 10 to 15 degrees above normal
with dry conditions. A few high levels clouds will sneak across
northern Arizona, especially later in the day.

On Wednesday and Thursday...A weak weather disturbance will move
across Arizona. Moisture, just off the California coast in this
morning`s infrared imagery, will move across Arizona. This in
combination with weak upward motion associated with the
disturbance will produce a few sprinkles Wednesday afternoon and
evening. The air mass could even become a bit unstable by
Thursday with a slight chance of thunderstorms over eastern
Arizona. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies with slightly
cooler daytime temperatures.

From Friday onward...A stronger disturbance will move across
Arizona on Friday and Saturday. A drier air mass will accompany
this second disturbance with the threat for any showers ending.
However, gusty southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph gusting to around
40 mph are likely to develop, especially from the Mogollon Rim
northward. A cooler air mass will allow temperatures to dip to
near seasonal normals. High pressure could return by Sunday with
a return of warmer temperatures.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions through 18z
Weds, with increasing cirrus cloud cover. Expect a mid deck to start
moving into the KPRC/KGCN area by 18Z Wednesday. Winds generally
less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and very dry conditions will continue
today, with 20 foot and mixing layer winds at less than 10 mph.
Starting Wednesday, increasing mid and high level moisture will
bring cloud cover to all and a slight chance of rain showers to
western Arizona. Wetting precip amounts are not expected.

Thursday through Saturday.  Southwest flow overhead to slowly
strengthen starting Thursday, with improving 20 foot and mixing
layer winds speeds. Very gusty southwest winds are expected Friday
as a cold front moves through the Great Basin. Surface high pressure
building over the Great Basin to bring north northwest flow on






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