Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 212212

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
312 PM MST Tue Mar 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A cooling trend will begin today as a storm system
approaches Arizona. Even cooler temperatures are expected on
Wednesday and Thursday along with good chance of showers. Dry
conditions are forecast Friday and most of Saturday with another
low pressure system possibly affecting the region Saturday night
into Sunday.


An active weather pattern will begin to impact the area and will
continue through the forecast period. Dry southwest flow will
continue over the area tonight with breezy winds diminishing after
sunset. Strong winds will increase again Wednesday with some
locations nearing wind advisory criteria. Moisture ahead of a
strong cold front associated with the upper level low will allow
for some shower development Wednesday ahead of the frontal passage
Wednesday afternoon.

By Wednesday evening and early Thursday morning, quick moving
cold front will drop snow levels to near 6500 feet. Subsequent
precipitation will have the potential to fall as snow across the
high country with 1-3 inches possible across the Mogollon Rim and
higher elevation through Thursday. Some locations may receive
higher amounts where banded precipitation develops and allows for
enhanced accumulations. Due to the warm antecedent conditions
some surfaces may see prolonged melting before accumulation

By late Thursday most moisture will have moved to the west with
clearing conditions developing Friday as a induced ridge develops
between the exiting system and the next shortwave that will impact
the area Saturday evening and Sunday. This quick moving system
will have the potential to bring a reinforcing shot of cooler air
to the region, along with some moisture, mainly to the Arizona-
Utah Border region. However confidence is decreased due to the
extended distance into the future. A third system is expected to
move into the area by the middle of next week, however confidence
over timing and location remains low.


For the 00Z Package...Breezy SW winds will decrease
after sunset tonight. Expect increasing clouds with lowering CIGS
Wednesday...though remaining mainly VFR through the daytime hours.
Surface winds SW 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts. Showers and some
thunderstorms will develop west of a KPGA-KPRC line late in the
afternoon with local MVFR possible. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.






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