Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 282245
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 PM MST SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
WILL LEAD TO GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR TODAY...THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTHWESTWARD TO THE KAIBAB PLATEAU. A STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE FLAGSTAFF AREA WAS REPORTED TO
HAVE PRODUCED PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL, AS WELL AS ENOUGH RAIN TO
CAUSE VERY MINOR STREET FLOODING. THE STORMS THAT FORMED OVER THE
MOGOLLON RIM ARE MOVING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, SO IT LOOKS LIKE
YAVAPAI COUNTY MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
DECREASE OVER NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.

STORM COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA EACH
DAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING NEAR AND SE OF A KIGM-KFLG-KSJN LINE WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STORM MOTION IS WSW. STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCAL WINDS OF 45+ KTS. LOCAL MVFR IN MOD/HVY RAIN ALSO
POSSIBLE. AFTER 17-18Z MONDAY...SHRA/TSRA WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MOVE WESTWARD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS WITH GREATER COVERAGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF I-40
COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND. STRONG AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS AND
LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN CONCERNS NEAR ANY STORM ACTIVITY. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL INCREASE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA EACH AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THOSE
OBSERVED LAST WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...AT
FIRE WEATHER...AT


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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