Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 142223

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
323 PM MST Mon Aug 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A few thunderstorms are expected the rest of this
afternoon and early evening along and east of a line from Payson
to Page, with dry conditions west of this line. A slight chance of
storms will linger Tuesday near the White Mountains, with much
drier and breezy conditions elsewhere. Dry weather will persist
through at least Friday, with a chance of storms gradually
returning for the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Drier air aloft is moving into the state this
afternoon and has shut off thunderstorm activity west of a Page to
Payson line. East of this line, enough low level moisture remains
for increased instability and scattered thunderstorms, some strong
or severe. The most active areas for the rest of the afternoon are
expected over portions of Apache County before dissipating this
evening. The drier air to our west will continue to filter in
Tuesday through the rest of the work week, with mostly sunny skies
and the only chance of storms being Tuesday afternoon near the
White Mountains. An upper trough moving through Tuesday will also
bring gusty southwest winds of 15-25 mph. The trough will keep
daytime temperatures a few degrees below normal, with overnight
lows several degrees below normal due to the dry air mass.

Models suggest a more favorable flow pattern for moisture return
developing during the weekend, as high pressure becomes centered
east of the state. We continue to advertise a slow increase in
thunderstorm chances for the weekend but confidence remains low at
this point.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect sct shra/tsra and isold
+tsra mainly east of a KRQE-KSJN line through 02Z. MVFR/IFR in the
stronger storms. Mainly VFR conditions elsewhere with SW sfc winds
10-20kts. VFR all areas aft 02Z. SW sfc winds 15-25kts after 18Z
Tuesday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry and breezy conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday. The only exception being a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday over the eastern White Mountains. Minimum
relative humidity values will fall considerably from what has been
seen the last few days.

Thursday through Saturday... Dry conditions continue through much of
this period, with lighter winds. Some moisture returns by Saturday,
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern







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