Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 160412

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
912 PM MST Sun Oct 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions, light winds, and above normal
temperatures will continue through Thursday. Friday into Saturday,
breezy conditions and a chance of showers are expected near the
Arizona/Utah border. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures
should develop by Sunday, October 22.


.UPDATE...An extremely dry air mass covers northern Arizona this
evening with surface dewpoints below zero along/north of the
Mogollon Rim and single digits/teens to the south. Precipitable
water measured by the 00Z sounding at Bellemont was 0.07" which
was actually up from 0.03" recorded this morning! Northeasterly
gradients have weakened a bit from 24 hrs ago, so winds at most
locations will be light overnight, leading to cold overnight lows
once again. No forecast updates needed this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION /314 PM MST/...Persistent mid-level ridging
centered over Baja California will keep dry conditions, light
winds, and above normal temperatures over northern Arizona
through Wednesday.

The upper ridge begins to flatten out Thursday ahead of an upper
trough approaching from the Pacific Northwest. The latest GFS now
progs a leading weak wave generating showers over the region
Thursday. However, the latest ECMWF keeps the forecast dry. Given
the run to run consistency of the ECMWF, will maintain a dry
forecast for Thursday.

Friday through Saturday, the latest medium range models prog the
aforementioned approaching trough axis to pivot through the
southwestern U.S. The latest GFS and ECMWF now keep the precip out
of Arizona and in Utah and New Mexico. As a result, trimmed POPS
for the Friday into Saturday period.

By Sunday, high pressure is expected to rebuild with temperatures
again likely climbing above normal.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
northern Arizona through the TAF period. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and very dry conditions will continue through
Tuesday. Expect easterly winds along and downstream of higher
terrain features from the Mogollon Rim southwestward through this
evening. Winds light and variable by tonight into Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Warm and dry conditions will persist
through Thursday. Breezy southwesterly winds will develop Friday
with a chance of showers near the Arizona/Utah border.






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