Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 161138
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
438 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...For today, expect dry weather, above normal
temperatures and light southwest breezes. On Sunday, a passing
low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures, along with
chances for rain and snow showers primarily along the eastern
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Dry weather and a warming trend
are forecast from Monday through Wednesday. By Thursday, another
low pressure system may impact the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Current satellite and upper-air analysis reveals a
shortwave trough extending from Washington through northern
California. Ahead of the trough, extensive mid and upper level
cloud decks are moving into the state from the northwest. This
cloud cover, along with cooler low level air will keep daytime
high temperatures a few degrees cooler today than yesterday. In
addition, tightening low level pressure gradients will result in
light southwest breezes.

The trough is forecast to slide southeastward today, eventually
forming into a closed low late tonight over northern Baja. On
Sunday, the low tracks along Arizona`s southern border. The
trajectory of this system will keep the bulk of associated
precipitation over southern portions of the state. Model
forecasts over the last 24 hours have trended drier across
northern Arizona, with the greatest rain and snowfall amounts in
the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim. Only light
precipitation is forecast as far north as Flagstaff, with some
model solutions keeping areas along the north of Interstate 40
completely dry.

As a result, the snow forecast has decreased in some areas. In
general, snowfall is expected down to 6000-6500 feet, although
some light snow may survive a few hundred feet below that. The
current forecast calls for between 2 to 6 inches of snow in and
around the White Mountains, 1 to 2 inches of snow along the
eastern Mogollon Rim, and less than 1 inch near Flagstaff. Further
adjustments may be necessary. Please check
www.weather.gov/flagstaff for more specific details.

On Monday, the low moves eastward, with a zonal flow pattern
setting up across the area through Wednesday. A warming trend is
forecast during this timeframe, with a return to above normal
temperatures by Tuesday. On Thursday, another weather system may
impact the area brining increasing winds and decreasing
temperatures. However, confidence with regards to the timing and
impacts of this next system is low at this time.


&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions are expected
over the next 24 hours. Thick mid and upper level cloud decks will
overtake the area this morning with southwest winds between 10-20
kts developing after 18Z. An approaching weather system will
bring increasing chances for rain/snow showers after 06Z Sunday,
with the best chances along and south of the eastern Mogollon Rim
and White Mountains. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...For today, expect dry weather, above normal
temperatures and breezy southwest winds. A closed low will impact
the area late tonight through Sunday bringing chances for rain
and snow showers to the area, primarily in the vicinity of the
eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Snowfall is expected
down to 6000-6500 feet, although some light snow may survive a few
hundred feet below that. Temperatures will drop to between 5 to 10
degrees below normal.

Monday through Wednesday...Expect dry weather with above normal
temperatures returning by Tuesday. Light northerly winds are
forecast Monday and Tuesday, with breezy southwest winds
developing by Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


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