Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261629
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WET AND COOL
STORM SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT
TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&
.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO AND
SOUTHERN WYOMING THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IS BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE SNOW LEVEL THIS MORNING IS 6500-7000
FEET. SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. LAPES RATES AND LIFTED INDEX
LOOK TO BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON NORTH OF A PAGE TO ST JOHNS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /421 AM MST/...COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL AFFECT
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AS THE LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG WIND AND
SHOWERS MONDAY SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
ACROSS THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE WETTER THAN MONDAY`S AND JUST ABOUT AS COLD, THOUGH
THANKFULLY NOT NEARLY AS WINDY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS FALL TO
AROUND 7000 FEET WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ABOVE THE
7500-8000 FT LEVEL. CONTINUED COOL FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT IN HANDLING THE NEXT LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
STATE. THE 00Z RUN OF GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE WEAKER AND
FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW TRACK WHILE THE EURO RUN WAS
FARTHER WEST, BRINGING THE LOW CENTER RIGHT INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA.
FOR NOW, DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST, CONTINUING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS EAST AND NORTH
OF A SUPAI-KSEZ-KSJN LINE TO SEE ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
03Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WINDS WESTERLY 10-20 KTS GUSTS 20-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM TODAY. DRY AND
BREEZY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON VENTILATION WILL BE
VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT EACH DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEM WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS MAY FALL ON THURSDAY
ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES.

&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/JJ
AVIATION...DM
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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