Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280016
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
516 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT MOISTURE AND SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE STATE.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING PATCHY FOG FROM THE GRAND
CANYON TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FOR TONIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED SLOWLY DEEPEN
AND HEAD EASTWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO DEEP MOISTURE
RESIDING OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE BAJA
COAST. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THAT BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES OF LIQUID COULD FALL BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT
FORECASTS KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL AT OR ABOVE THE 7500-8000 FOOT LEVEL
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FALLING TO 6500-7000 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS THERE COULD BE
SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO POPULATION CENTERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED PATCHES OF FOG POSSIBLE
FROM KGCN-KFLG-KSOW SOUTHWARD 06Z-15Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....MAS/KD
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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