Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 281112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
412 AM MST Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure center will shift east into New Mexico
by this afternoon with decreasing shower and thunderstorm activity.
Gusty northerly winds will develop this afternoon and continue
into early Wednesday. Another system will move into northern
Arizona from the northwest late Thursday into Friday bringing
strong southwesterly winds and showers.


.DISCUSSION...Lingering shower activity will diminish through the
day today as a low pressure system slides east of the area. There
remains the potential for a few thunderstorms this morning and
afternoon east of Highway 89 and I-17. Behind this system, gusty
northerly winds will develop with areas south of the higher
terrain favored for the strongest winds tonight. Gusty winds will
become more widespread on Wednesday morning as the inversion
breaks. Winds are then expected to decrease during the afternoon
and evening as weak ridging moves in. Wednesday and Thursday
morning will be dry before the next storm system moves into the

There still remains uncertainty as to how far south this system
will track and how quickly it will exit to the east. Therefore,
confidence in the amount of precipitation that will fall is low.
However, there is increasing confidence in a period of strong
southwesterly winds ahead of the system later Thursday into
Friday. At this time, it appears wind advisories will likely be
needed and some favored southwesterly downslope locations could
near wind warning criteria. This will continue to be fine tuned as
we get closer to the event.

The active pattern looks to continue into early next week with
another storm system dropping southeast and potentially impacting
northern Arizona Monday into Tuesday.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Through 15Z, scattered showers
will continue across portions of southern Navajo and Apache
counties, as well as near the Four Corners region. Isolated showers
are possible elsewhere. After 15Z, shower activity is forecast to
increase, with the best chances for showers and thunderstorms east
of Flagstaff. MVFR ceilings/visibilities will be possible under the
stronger storms. Elsewhere, an extensive cumulus field will develop
along and north of the Mogollon Rim, with cloud bases at or above 11
kft msl. Gusty northeast to northwest winds will increase after 16Z,
with winds speeds between 10-20 knots and gusts between 20-30 knots.
While winds will decrease at most places after 01Z Wednesday, strong
northerly winds will continue overnight at locations to the south of
high terrain. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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