Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231637

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
937 AM MST Sun Oct 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect increasing clouds today, with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms by this afternoon, lasting through
Monday night. Drier and warmer air arrives Tuesday, with above
normal temperatures expected much of the week. Another chance of
showers arrives late in the week and into the early part of the


.DISCUSSION...This morning`s satellite imagery reveals mid and
upper level cloud cover streaming into the region from the west.
Today`s model data continues to show increasing low level moisture
sneaking up the Colorado River, but at this point it looks
doubtful that this will result in any shower activity across
northwestern Arizona prior to the evening hours.

In terms of forecast updates, only made a few minor adjustments
to the sky cover for today. Aside from that, the current forecast
appears to be on track and no further updates are anticipated at
this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION /510 AM MST/...Increasing sub-tropical moisture
values are noted approaching southern California this morning,
with some lightning just south of KLAX. This moisture plume will
migrate over Arizona later tonight and Monday as a weak trough
moves to our north. This trough does not look very strong, when
compared to previous runs. This is likely due to the fact that the
battle between the ridge to our east and the west coast trough is
being won out by the ridge for now.

The remainder of the week will feature several weak troughs to
the north that will succumb to the ridge each time. However, with
each trough passage, just enough moisture may work north for a
chance of showers each time. The best timing for these systems and
associated moisture looks to be Monday and Monday night, then
Thursday night and Friday, then maybe again late in the seven day

Much of the period will feature above normal hghts and the days
that do not feature a chance of showers will have temperatures
that may range more than 10 degrees above normal. Southwest
breezes will also accompany each trough passage, but nothing high
enough to warrant any headlines.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z forecast...VFR conditions are expected to
continue over the next 24 hrs. Look for increasing high clouds
today and breezy SW winds 10-20 kts. Isolated showers or
thunderstorms will develop by late this afternoon and
tonight...mainly west of a KPGA-KSOW line. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.






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