Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 182218

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
318 PM MST Thu May 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A weak disturbance will bring a chance of showers this
evening and early Friday to areas along the Mogollon Rim north and
east. On Friday, clearing to return from west to east as the
disturbance departs. Fair weather and warmer temperatures are
forecast from Saturday through much of next week.


.DISCUSSION...The broad upper low centered over the UT/CO border
will remain the main weather maker for northern AZ through the
next 24 hours. A disturbance rotating around the low will drop
into northern AZ early this evening sparking the development of
showers. Latest model guidance has trended towards a more
organized band of showers developing near the UT/AZ border early
this evening, moving southeast reaching the White Mountains early
Thursday morning. This band of showers is not expected to be as
intense as the front that passed through the area last night and
early this morning. Liquid precipitation amounts are expected to
remain below 0.10". However, light snow accumulations (an inch or
less) will be possible above 7000 feet, but again not expecting
the amounts that were observed at the higher terrain with the
previous front.

Clearing will take place on Friday from west to east with high
temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer than today. This warming trend
will continue into the weekend and next week with high
temperatures around 5 degrees above normal for this time of year.
A generally weak flow regime will also persist across the region
promoting a prolonged period of lighter winds. From the weekend
onward, the chances of precipitation look slim for the foreseeable


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...A band of showers will cross
the region from north to south this evening and overnight, with
the greatest activity expected in far northeast Arizona. A brief
period of MVFR conditions will be possible with the showers, but
probabilities are too low include in TAF forecasts. Dry conditions
and breezy north to northeast winds are forecast after 18Z
Friday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...For tonight, a weak weather disturbance crossing
the district from north to south will bring rain and snow showers
to portions of northern Arizona. The best chances for showers will
be in Navajo and Apache counties, with lesser chances elsewhere.
Dry conditions and a warming trend are forecast for Friday and

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry and unstable conditions may lead to
Moderate or High Haines values each day. Daytime temperatures
will be near normal.






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