Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 101025
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
325 AM MST THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY CAUSING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION REDUCING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT WHILE INCREASING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
CAUSE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST CAUSING A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE KAIBAB AND
COCONINO PLATEAUS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. IN
ADDITION...THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO
WARM BY A FEW DEGREES.

SUNDAY ONWARD...MODELS PREDICT ANOTHER UPTICK IN MOISTURE
BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AFT 18-20Z...SCT-NMRS -SHRA/-TSRA
WITH ISOLD +TSRA AND MVFR VSBY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THEN MOVING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ENDING 03-06Z...WITH ISOLD -SHRA OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
ARIZONA TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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