Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251123
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
420 AM MST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A WINDY AND COLD DAY TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MANY AREAS ABOVE
5000 FEET WILL SEE AT LEAST A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GUST FROM 30-40
MPH THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...LASTING LONGEST OUT EAST.
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT IS SPARSE...BUT ENOUGH FORCING EXISTS
TO OVERCOME ALL THE DRY AIR OVER THE STATE AND PRODUCE AN HOUR OR
TWO OF SHOWERS DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
TRAILS THE FRONT FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP DUE TO THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...BUT THE AIRMASS IS SO DRY THAT
THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH.

THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST
QPF FROM THIS EVENT. THE FRONT MAY STALL A BIT OUT EAST LATER TODAY
AS A SECONDARY S/WV MOVES INTO THE TROUGH POSITION AND THIS MAY
PRODUCE ANOTHER QPF MAXIMUM OVER THE WHITE MTNS. WE HAVE RAISED THE
POPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE KAIBAB SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
MOGOLLON AND WHITE MTNS.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A TRACE TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH A FEW AREAS
MENTIONED ABOVE SEEING 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW.

VERY COLD AIR WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE RIDGING DEVELOPS
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...BUT DETAILS ARE
NOT CLEAR YET. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO 3000-4000 FEET BY
LATER TODAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS DECREASING BY TONIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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