Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 232231
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE MONSOON CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TODAY WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED SO GUSTY WINDS HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE STORMS. EXPECT
STORMS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THE GENERAL CIRCULATION WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH MODELS INDICATE SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER AREAS SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND. WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
03Z...THEN ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR STORM ACTIVITY. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA/TSRA AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/MAS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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