Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241655
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST REGION. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BEHIND A CHRISTMAS
DAY COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE
HIGH COUNTRY. THIS BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL START ON CHRISTMAS DAY
AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR SHORT-TERM FORECAST UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /430 AM MST/...
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WEAKENING
WIND SPEEDS THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS RIDGE WILL
FEEL MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND THE LIGHTER WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

BY CHRISTMAS DAY...A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT A WHITE CHRISTMAS WITH
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ON THE GROUND.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLD AND UNSETTLED AIR WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FLURRIES ON FRIDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE NORTH WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE AIR MASS TEMPERATURE FORECAST
BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. AS A RESULT OF THIS MODEL UNCERTAINTY
RATHER LARGE ADJUSTMENTS IN OUR FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY BE
NEEDED AS THIS TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AND
PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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