Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 242209

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
309 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and dry conditions will continue through
Saturday. An unsettled pattern will arrive on Sunday and last into
early next week, with breezy and cool conditions along with a
good chance for rain and snow showers.


.DISCUSSION...Expect one more day of chilly but dry weather under
dry westerly flow before a series of shortwave weather
disturbances bring unsettled conditions to northern Arizona.

On Saturday...A dry westerly flow will continue with mainly clear
skies and below normal temperatures. An approaching shortwave
trough will usher in a bit stronger winds with afternoon gust
reaching 30 mph.

Sunday through Tuesday...A pair of shortwave troughs will move
across Arizona. The first will move in during the day Sunday. The
upper dynamics are decent with the first shortwave but the
associated air mass will be on the dry side. The net result will
be isolated to scattered showers across the region, most numerous
over the mountain areas. The snow level will range from 4500-5500
feet under cloudy and breezy conditions. A second shortwave will
move in later on Monday bringing a better chance of showers with
the snow level remaining nearly the same. However, the second wave
will be moving quickly and fail to tap into much in the way of
significant moisture. Look for windy conditions on Monday with the
second wave. In general, Snow accumulations look to remain on the
light to modest side with the best chances during the day Sunday
and again Monday afternoon into early Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...High pressure will build over the
southwest United State promising dry conditions and warmer


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hours. Surface winds will be westerly at 10-20 knots
through 02Z...becoming light overnight. Southwest winds at 10-20
knots will develop again by Saturday afternoon. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.






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