Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 241027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
327 AM MST Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Hot conditions will persist through the weekend.
Temperatures will begin to slowly trend downward into next week.
The chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will increase
this weekend and early next week, mainly for Apache and southern
Navajo counties. Gusty southwest winds are expected to develop
Tuesday and Wednesday.


.DISCUSSION...High pressure remains the dominant weather feature
over the desert southwest this weekend and into next week. The
Excessive Heat Warning for the lowest elevations of northern
Arizona remains in effect through Sunday evening. The high will
be weakening next week which will lead to a slight cool down in
the hot temperatures we have experienced over the past several
days. Moisture will creep back into the region with high-based
showers and thunderstorms possible over the White Mountains today.
It appears moisture will be able to get a bit farther to the
north and west on Sunday with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms extending north and west along the Mogollon Rim and
over the Chuska Mountains as well. Gusty winds will be possible
with any storms that do develop.

Moisture will begin to recede out of the area next week as
westerly flow increases. A trough of low pressure over the Pacific
Northwest will dig to the south and east through the Rocky
Mountains by mid week. This will result in the development of
gusty southwest winds Tuesday and Wednesday. Models continue to
indicate wind speeds may reach advisory criteria and critical fire
weather thresholds could be met. At this time, precipitation
chances after mid week look minimal.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect primarily VFR conditions
for the 24 hour period, though smoke from area wildfires may bring
MVFR/IFR conditions to KFLG and KPGA overnight. Widely scattered
afternoon thunderstorms are possible over the White Mountains.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect mainly dry conditions over the
weekend. Moisture moving into eastern Arizona will bring a chance of
high based showers and thunderstorms to the White Mountains today.
The moisture and thunderstorm threat spreads to Chuska Mountains and
portions of the Mogollon Rim on Sunday afternoon. Max temps to
remain around 10 degrees above normal.

Monday through Wednesday...Gusty southwest winds to return during
the afternoons. On Monday a chance for high based thunderstorms
continues across Apache and southern Navajo counties. A cooling
trend will develop Monday and Tuesday as drier westerly flow
develops. Expect shower activity to be pushed east of the district
during this time.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 9
PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ005-006-037.




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