Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
FXUS65 KFGZ 281140
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
440 AM MST Fri Apr 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Expect another round of gusty winds as a cold front
moves south through the state today. This will bring colder
temperatures to the region with a chance of showers mainly across
eastern Arizona into Saturday. Dry weather with a strong warming
trend starts Sunday and continues through next week.
.DISCUSSION...A large trough covering much of the central and
western United States will shift southward today, eventually
developing a closed low near the four corners by this evening. A
cold front located near the AZ/UT state line this morning will
move slowly southward through the day. High temperatures behind
the front will be 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday. The
strongest winds with the system are expected in southern Apache
County, including the White Mtns and St Johns areas, where a Wind
Advisory is in effect this afternoon for gusts to 45 mph.
Additional strong winds are expected along and just behind the
cold front across Yavapai County from mid afternoon to early
evening and a Wind Advisory is in effect there as well. Light
radar echoes have been observed overnight across the northern
third of the state near the front, but the lower levels of the
atmosphere are very dry and expect that most of this has been
virga of very light showers. As the front advances southward into
a slightly more moist air mass, there will be a better chance of
showers and possibly some thunderstorms later today across eastern
Arizona, with only a slight chance farther west to the Flagstaff
area. The closed low will move south along the AZ/NM line tonight,
then accelerate eastward across NM on Saturday. The main impact on
the region tonight and Saturday will be cold northerly winds, wind
chills Saturday will be in the 30s & 40s for the high country.
Gusty winds tonight should keep the actual air temperatures from
falling quite as low as previously expected. A few instability
showers could develop Saturday afternoon across eastern Arizona
but most of the region will remain dry.
Sunday through next week - the low heads east and ridging develops
over the western United States. Temperatures will rebound to near
normal by Sunday afternoon, then well above normal readings are
likely Monday through next week. Dry conditions, mainly clear
skies and lighter winds are forecast.
.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...A cold front moving south through
the area today will bring scattered showers with periodic MVFR
conditions to areas east of a KGCN-KFLG-KPAN line. The best coverage
of showers is expected in the White Mountains region where thunder
is also possible. Westerly winds this morning will shift to the
northwest becoming 15-25 kts this afternoon gusting near 30 kts.
Stronger gusts to 35 kts expected south of KFLG. Aviation
discussion not updated for amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER... A cold front will move south through the area today
bringing a shift to northwesterly winds, cooler temperatures, and a
chance for showers. Very dry air moving in behind the front will
combine with strong winds in Yavapai County to produce critical fire
weather conditions and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect this
afternoon. Cool and breezy weather follows for Saturday with a
chance for showers along the New Mexico border.
Sunday through Tuesday...A period of dry weather with less wind and
warming temperatures is expected.
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM
this afternoon to 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ108-137.
Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST this evening
Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MST this evening FOR
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