Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
FXUS65 KFGZ 222134
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
234 PM MST FRI JUL 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect less shower and thunderstorm coverage this
weekend as drier air moves in from the west. Hot afternoon
temperatures are in store for elevations below 4000 feet.
Moisture and storm chances will increase again next
week, especially along and south of the Mogollon Rim.
Plenty of shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon along
the Mogollon Rim with outflow boundaries dropping into the Payson
area. Elsewhere coverage is widely scattered. This activity to
continue through sunset then decrease in coverage.
For the weekend...Still looking very warm for areas below 4000
feet, and the Excessive Heat Warning for the Grand Canyon and
Yavapai county Valley areas will continue through 7 pm Saturday.
Models do show light westerly flow pushing drier air into
northwest AZ, generally below 500 mb along with slight warming in
the mid levels. Thus expecting only isolate coverage across
Yavapai and most of Coconino county. The greatest storm chances
remain over southern Navajo and Apache Counties where deeper
moisture will linger.
Starting Monday, progs show moisture to again push westward, with storm
chances increasing, especially for areas along and south of the
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Depending on where the high
eventually sets up, we could see some east or northeast steering
flow off the higher terrain which is favorable for some stronger
storms in the late afternoon and evening in Gila County and the
lower elevations of Yavapai County. Far northern Arizona
(along/north of Grand Canyon to Window Rock) often remains drier
in this pattern. With high pressure in place, expect hot
temperatures in this area, 110+ at Phantom Ranch, 102-104 at Page
and near 90 at Grand Canyon south rim.
.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Monsoon moisture will linger.
Isolated thunderstorms will continue until sunset then diminish.
Expect another round of isolated to scattered storms on
Saturday...most numerous KFLG east. VFR conditions will prevail but
local MVFR will be possible in the stronger storm cells. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will move over Arizona. Associated
with this shift a bit drier westerly flow will result in a general
downturn to isolated shower and thunderstorm activity. The region
of the White Mountains will continue to see scattered storms. Hot
weather over the weekend with winds remaining light.
Monday through Wednesday...Monsoon moisture hangs around. The daily
chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue with an increase
in activity compared to the weekend.
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until
7 PM MST Saturday FOR AZZ006-037 Below 4000 Feet.
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