


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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608 FXUS65 KFGZ 091728 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1028 AM MST Wed Jul 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated storms/showers will continue across the High Country today, becoming more limited to the White Mountains Thursday and Friday. Precipitation chances look to once again increase across the higher elevation locations this weekend and into next week. Outside of showers/storms, hot temperatures will continue. && .DISCUSSION...Heat and isolated storms will continue to be the main topics today, as high pressure remains center over Arizona. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for areas below 4000` at the Grand Canyon, across Yavapai County, and northern Gila County. With the soaring daytime highs, be sure to avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day (~11 AM - 7 PM), and drink plenty of water. Similar to yesterday, some locations may see relief from the heat due to showers/storms forming this afternoon. Although widespread wetting rain in not expected, we can`t rule out an isolated storm or two producing brief heavy rain. Dry lightning will also be a concern, due to the continued dry conditions. Thursday and Friday...A weak trough will slide across the Great Basin Region, weakening the previously mentioned ridge. As this ridge flattens over the Southwest, moisture will become limited to the White Mountains, but daytime highs will continue to stay on the hot side. Over the Weekend & into Next Week...High pressure will once again build across the Southwest, keeping daytime highs hot and potentially allowing moisture to return across the High Country. The synoptic pattern suggested on model guidance is not a favorable monsoon pattern, but it still looks to allow moisture to push in from the south. Confidence is still low on how next week will shake out, but we`ll continue to monitor the trends through the week. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 09/18Z through Thursday 10/18Z...VFR conditions expected. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA along a KFLG-KSOW line between 19Z-02Z. Winds are W 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts this afternoon, becoming light and VRB overnight. Gusty/erratic winds possible near storm. OUTLOOK...Thursday 10/18Z through Saturday 12/18Z...VFR conditions expected. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA along and south of a KSOW-KSJN line Thursday and Friday afternoon. Winds are SW-W 10-20 kts, gusting 25-35 kts on Thursday, then 10-15 kts gusting to 25 kts on Friday. Winds are light and VRB during the overnight periods. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Hot and mostly dry conditions expected today and Thursday. Slight chances for showers/storms across the high terrain each afternoon. Minimum RH values forecast to range between 10-20% each afternoon with overnight recoveries 30-60%. Look for westerly winds 10-25 mph, gusting near 30 mph each afternoon. Gusty winds possible near storms. Friday through Sunday...Hot and mainly dry conditions forecast for Friday, but increasing chances for showers/storms returns over the weekend across the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Minimum RH values look to be 5-15% north of the Mogollon Rim, and 10-25% along and south of the Rim each afternoon. Overnight recoveries 30-60% anticipated. Look for generally west winds 10-20 mph each afternoon, but gusty/erratic winds possible near storms. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ018-037. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny AVIATION...Lewandowski FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff