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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 150434
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
934 PM MST Mon Aug 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A few thunderstorms are expected the rest of this
afternoon and early evening along and east of a line from Payson
to Page, with dry conditions west of this line. A slight chance of
storms will linger Tuesday near the White Mountains, with much
drier and breezy conditions elsewhere. Dry weather will persist
through at least Friday, with a chance of storms gradually
returning for the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Concur with the current weather discussion. Clear skies
over night with cool lows in the morning. Mostly sunny Tuesday
with southwesterly winds becoming gusty in the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /323 PM MST/...Drier air aloft is moving into the
state this afternoon and has shut off thunderstorm activity west
of a Page to Payson line. East of this line, enough low level
moisture remains for increased instability and scattered
thunderstorms, some strong or severe. The most active areas for
the rest of the afternoon are expected over portions of Apache
County before dissipating this evening. The drier air to our west
will continue to filter in Tuesday through the rest of the work
week, with mostly sunny skies and the only chance of storms being
Tuesday afternoon near the White Mountains. An upper trough moving
through Tuesday will also bring gusty southwest winds of 15-25
mph. The trough will keep daytime temperatures a few degrees below
normal, with overnight lows several degrees below normal due to
the dry air mass.

Models suggest a more favorable flow pattern for moisture return
developing during the weekend, as high pressure becomes centered
east of the state. We continue to advertise a slow increase in
thunderstorm chances for the weekend but confidence remains low at
this point.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package... VFR conditions with SW sfc winds.
Gusty sfc winds after 18Z Tuesday. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry and breezy conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday. The only exception being a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday over the eastern White Mountains. Minimum
relative humidity values will fall considerably from what has been
seen the last few days.

Thursday through Saturday... Dry conditions continue through much of
this period, with lighter winds. Some moisture returns by Saturday,
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern
zones.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB/JJ
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson


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