Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 051041
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ZONES STARTING TUESDAY...WHILE THE EASTERN ZONES REMAIN
ACTIVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION... SFC DEW POINTS...SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES
OF 1-1.5 INCHES AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS ARE ALL SIGNS THERE IS OF
A LOT OF MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. SKY COVER RANGES FROM
MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO LINE TO CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN
YAVAPAI COUNTY. WE AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT YAVAPAI COUNTY
SHOULD BE THE FIRST AREA TO SEE TSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PROBABLY BY 11
AM OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN THERE. STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PROGS SHOW SIMILAR MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WE DID
LOWER PRECIP CHANCES TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WINDOW ROCK AREAS
WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE SEEING
DRY WEATHER WITH MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS AREAS WEST OF A LINE
FROM PAGE TO PAYSON FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...BKN-OVC CONDITIONS WITH BASES FROM
8-11KFT AGL EAST OF A LINE FROM KPAN-KFLG-KGCN THROUGH 14Z-
16Z...WITH ISOLD -SHRA. AFT 16Z...SCT-BKN SC/CU/TCU ALL AREAS WITH
SIMILAR BASES. SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ISOLD +TSRA AFT 18Z. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DECREASING BY 02Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. EXPECT CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STEADILY
DECREASE MOISTURE LEVELS. THIS RESULTS IN A DOWNTURN IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE...WITH DECREASING
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. &&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION & FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.