Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201645
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS
ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
...THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS NEAR WINDOW ROCK.
SUBSIDENCE OR DOWNWARD MOVING AIR OVER WESTERN ARIZONA WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
FORECAST.  ANOTHER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS UTAH ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER
DAY FOR A FEW SHOWERS. BY WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
ARIZONA WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE STARTING A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH A 10 PERCENT
REDUCTION IN PRECIPITATION AND STORM CHANCES FOR TODAY ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...WDLY SCT TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS...DECREASING BTWN 01-03Z TUE. PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.