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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271147
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
445 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY AWAY FROM ARIZONA. THIS LOW PULLED
PLENTY OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...WITH A
GENERAL 0.10-0.40 INCH RAINFALL IN YAVAPAI CO OVERNIGHT. AMOUNTS
FARTHER NORTH HAVE BEEN LIGHTER. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WITH THE
LOW HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NW ARIZONA AT 4 AM...WITH A SECONDARY AREA
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. EXPECTING A DECREASING
TREND IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BY LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY THIS EVENING. FAIR AND A BIT WARMER WEATHER
RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND HEAD EASTWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING
CHANCES SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE
LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH JUST HOW MUCH LOWER IS STILL IN
QUESTION. OUR CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL AT OR ABOVE THE
7500-8000 FOOT LEVEL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FALLING TO
6500-7000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
AS THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO THE POPULATED AREAS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS CAUSING RAINSHOWERS...MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
OBSCURING MOUNTAIN TOPS AND LIKELY LEADING TO PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF