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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251638
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS FROM PRESCOTT TO FLAGSTAFF...TO 4-CORNERS HAS
SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER WEST TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE
BELLEMONT MORNING SOUNDING DROPPED FROM AROUND AN INCH LAST EVENING
TO NEAR 0.70 IN...WHILE SOUNDINGS TAKEN AT PHOENIX AND TUCSON SHOWED
LARGE INCREASES DURING THE SAME TIME DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
MODELS PUSH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE BACK EASTWARD...TO FLAGSTAFF AND
THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER MOST AREAS...WITH EAST
CENTRAL AZ LOOKING LESS ACTIVE. ALSO...AN AREA OF STORMS FORECAST BY
SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON MAY MOVE UP
INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING...INCLUDING YAVAPAI CO AND POSSIBLY THE
FLAGSTAFF REGION. WILL MAKE SOME SLIGHT POP ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD FOR
THE WHITE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE STORM CHANCES A BIT
THIS EVENING FROM FLAGSTAFF SOUTHWARD.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(350 AM MST)...THE PERSISTENT BAND OF
CLOUDS/SHOWERS TO OUR WEST THAT FORMED OVER 24 HOURS AGO ESSENTIALLY
INDICATES THE MONSOON BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT
THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
WEEK. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH WARM AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS
SLOWLY ERODING EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK. STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO
WEAKEN EACH DAY...WITH STORMS BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY AND CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TO REFLECT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AT THIS
TIME...THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF KFLG. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES
MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY TODAY...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF
KGCN...KFLG...AND KSEZ. THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AZ. LOCALLY MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/PETERSON
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF