Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311649
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH WILL
BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA LATER
NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH UTAH TODAY WILL
BRING BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO CONTINUE IN A DRY AIR
MASS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
WILL CAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING UP ADDITIONAL
MONSOON MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH. THE FIRST SIGNS OF MOISTURE
SNEAKING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA START ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY MOVING INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY. BY
THURSDAY...LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
REGION AND LINGER EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&


.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24  HRS UNDER SKC-SCT250. BREEZY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
15-20 KTS GUSTING 25-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING BY 01-02Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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