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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 042235
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
335 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SWITCHING TO NORTHEASTERLY BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
4-CORNERS AREA BRINGING ISOLATED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AZ...INCLUDING THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU...BLACK MESA...CHUSKA MTNS. EVEN A FEW T-STORMS IN FAR SW
COLORADO. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW INTO
THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
NOT CLEAR YET. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WEST WIND FRIDAY...SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT LOW CLOUDS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AOA 4KFT AGL DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
SCT-BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FORECAST EAST OF KPGA-KRQE LINE UNTIL 04Z
...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM 04Z TO 07Z TONIGHT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/DJO
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF