Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 141119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
419 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A series of weather disturbances will brush northern
Arizona over the coming days. A cold front moving through
today will bring breezy and colder weather. For Friday,
temperatures will warm some before yet another cold front ushers
in windy and colder weather later on Saturday through Monday.


A cold front will push south across northern Arizona today, with
cooler temperatures and gusty northeast winds developing. The
strongest winds will be found along and south of the Mogollon
Rim and other higher terrain features where localized gusts in
excess of 40 mph will be possible. Fair and warmer weather will
return Friday, before another disturbance approaches the state
this weekend. Another round of gusty northeast winds will develop
and temperatures are forecast to drop to below normal by Sunday.
Though some of the details with this system remain quite uncertain,
we have added chances of rain and snow to the forecast, primarily
for Sunday. After the passage of the weekend system, a return to
more benign weather is expected early next week.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions expected over the
next 24 hours. A cold front is moving through northern Arizona
this morning. Local CIGS in the 5-7kft agl range are possible east
along the AZ NM border thru 00Z Friday.

SFC winds this morning will be increasing in speed, N-NW 15-25KT
in the Little Colorado River Valley through 00z then decreasing.
Winds along and south of the Mogollon Rim/White Mountains N-NE
20G35KT from 18z Thu-06z Fri then decreasing higher Thursday
afternoon and evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...A cold front is moving southward through northern
Arizona this morning. Strong north to northeast winds will develop
by noon today. Winds to decouple in the valleys north of the
Mogollon rim, but continue tonight across areas along and south of
the Mogollon Rim, similar to last Thursday night. Fair and warmer
weather is expected Friday.

Saturday through Monday... Another dry front will move through
from north to south over the weekend, with max temps cooling to
at then below normal. A few rain or showers are possible Sunday.
Clear weather should return on Monday.






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