Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 191134

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
435 AM MST Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect isolated showers through this evening as an area
of low pressure moves through southern Utah today. Drier and windy
conditions develop Friday, ahead of a strong cold front set to drop
temperatures 10-15 degrees by Saturday. Warmer and dry conditions
will return again by early next week.


.DISCUSSION...An upper low north of KLAS will move through southern
Utah today, losing some amplitude as it does. Enough cool air and
moisture exists in the mid-levels for isolated showers this morning.
These showers will continue through the day, especially north and
east of Flagstaff.

Drier air will move into the region behind this low and ahead of a
strong trough due to move through the Great Basin Friday and Friday
night. This system will bring a significant cold front to the area,
with 10-15 degrees of cooling by Saturday, compared to today. In
addition, southwest winds ahead of the front will flirt with Wind
Advisory levels, but most areas should stay just under.

A major ridge builds off the west coast and into the western Great
Basin later in the weekend and into next week. This will bring very
dry conditons, lighter winds, and a return to well above normal


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the
next 24 hrs. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast
through 00z Fri, with the precip threat confined to the AZ NM border
after 00z Fri. Light sfc winds through 18z then S-SW 10-15 kts gusts
to 25 knot through 02z Fri, then winds decreasing to 5-10 kt.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A weak disturbance will bring increasing clouds
and a chance of rain showers through tonight. A few thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon. Wetting rain is unlikely for most
locations. Southwest winds will increase today even more on Friday
as a cold front moves through the Great Basin.

Saturday through Monday...Drier and cooler air arrives Saturday,
with winds switching to a north to northeast direction. Several days
of well above normal temperatures and very dry surface conditions
starts Sunday.






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