Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 211022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
322 AM MST Wed Jun 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Hot conditions will persist through the week with the
warmest day expected today. Temperatures will begin to trend
downward Thursday into the weekend. A few isolated showers or
thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible across the White
Mountains this afternoon.


.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure centered over the area will
result in continued hot temperatures through the remainder of the
week. The warmest day of the week is expected today. With less
cloud cover and thunderstorm activity than the previous few days,
all time record high temperatures are within reach for several
locations across northern Arizona. Isolated thunderstorm potential
this afternoon will be confined to the White Mountains. Gusty
winds will be possible with any storms that do develop. A slow
diminishing trend in the temperatures is still expected Thursday
into the weekend, but they will still remain well above normal.
Even though temperatures will slowly decrease into the weekend,
the heat will remain at dangerous levels. Based upon this and
coordination with surrounding offices, opted to extend the
Excessive Heat Warnings for the lower elevations until Sunday
evening. While temperatures will remain around 5 degrees above
normal early next week, the heat risk will be significantly less
than the ongoing heat wave.

Thunderstorm chances decrease across the entire area Thursday
through Saturday. Moisture increases again on Sunday and into
early next week with thunderstorm chances increasing again mainly
over Apache County.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions are expected for
the next 24 hours though isolated -SHRA/-TSRA may develop this
afternoon over the White Mtns. Expect gusty winds near any storms.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Westerly flow aloft to bring dry mid level
air into western and central Arizona today. Isolated thunderstorms
with little rainfall and strong wind gusts still possible over the
White mountains. Max temperatures should peak today, all time record
values are threatened at several locations. On Thursday, 20 foot
winds to be noticeable faster and may approach critical values.

Friday through Sunday...Dry and hot conditions to persist through
Saturday. Expect southwest to west breezes each afternoon. Moisture
looks to return on Sunday with chances for showers and storms across
southern Apache county.


Thursday FOR AZZ004-007>017-039-040.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday FOR AZZ018-038.

Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ005-006-037.




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