Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291657
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
957 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH STORMS LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOONS
AND EARLY EVENINGS. STARTING FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD
SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS MORNING...WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50`S. WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD DECREASE MOISTURE A BIT TODAY...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE BY THIS AFTERNOON PW AROUND 0.8 INCHES. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...MODELS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A DECREASE IN INSTABILITY TODAY AND WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DOWN AND REDUCED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER. BY SATURDAY...GOOD MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. SO...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...BEGINNING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WITH ISOLD +TSRA
DEVELOPING 18-20Z...THEN DISSIPATING IN THE EVENING. MVFR VSBY AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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