Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 212229
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
329 PM MST SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE THROUGH
THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE STATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
STORMS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AZ WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING...BUT A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP INTO
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. A VERY STABLE AIR
MASS OVERHEAD WILL SHARPLY LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION WITH FAIR
NIGHTS EXPECTED...THOUGH SLIGHT CHANCES CAN`T BE RULED OUT IN
EASTERN AZ.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW THAT A STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE OVER
ARIZONA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THRU 02Z
AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND FAR NO. AZ
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS NO. AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KPGA-KINW-KSOW. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ISOLD IFR/MVFR
AND ERRATIC SFC WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS NEAR TSRA. TO THE SOUTH.
AND WEST OF KPGA-KINW-KSOW LINE...DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. FOR MONDAY ISOLD TSRA NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES AFT 19Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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