Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 151103

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
403 AM MST Tue Aug 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and breezy weather today, though a slight
chance of storms will linger near the White Mountains. Dry
weather will persist through Friday, with a chance of storms
gradually returning for the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...An upper level trough settling over the Great basin
today will bring mid and high level cloud cover to areas along
and north of the Mogollon rim, as well as gusty southwest winds of
15-30 mph. We have seen strong low level drying across much of
the area, surface dew points are in the teens in the Page and
Kaibab Plateau areas this morning. Kept the slight chance of
afternoon storms going around the White mountains for today. Fair
weather for all from Wednesday through Friday night. The trough
will keep daytime temperatures a few degrees below normal, with
overnight lows several degrees below normal due to the dry air

Models suggest a more favorable flow pattern for moisture return
developing this weekend, as high pressure becomes centered east
of the state. We continue to advertise a slow increase in
thunderstorm chances for the weekend but confidence remains low at
this point.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package... VFR conditions across
northern Arizona with predominantly southwest winds. Wind gusts of
20 to 30KTS are likely after 17Z today and will last until early
evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry and breezy conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday. The only exception being a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday over the eastern White Mountains. Minimum
relative humidity values will fall considerably from what has been
seen the last few days.

Thursday through Saturday... Dry conditions continue through much of
this period, with lighter winds. Some moisture returns by Saturday,
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern






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