Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011706
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1006 AM MST MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO ARIZONA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO SHORT-TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /AZ 316 AM/...
A DRY AND MILD LABOR DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SONORA AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA KEEPING WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE. SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE WITH
ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN NORTHERN
SONORA. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
BEGINS TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...AND FOR ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY. A LOW TO
MID GRADE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS FORECAST MODELS DIFFER IN HOW TO RESOLVE A WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE SURGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MID GRADE MONSOON PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/MCS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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