Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 160437

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
937 PM MST Tue Aug 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will persist through Friday, with a
chance of storms gradually returning late in the weekend and
early next week.


Forecast looks to be on track for the bulk of the area this
evening. Some concern exists that overnight low temperatures may
still be too high, with some locations dropping below forecast
lows with the clear skies and light winds. Will continue to watch
current observations and a secondary update in the near midnight
hours may become necessary as cooling continues.


.PREV DISCUSSION /124 PM MST/...Almost fall-like weather this
afternoon as a trough passes through the region. Temperatures are
several degrees below average with breezy southwest winds and low
humidity. An extensive area of mid and high clouds has accompanied
the trough, bringing virga and maybe even a few sprinkles to areas
from Flagstaff northward. The clouds will shift east of the area
by late afternoon and evening as winds decrease. Dry air and low
dewpoints will lead to below normal overnight lows the next few
nights, with upper 30s to mid 40s at the higher elevations (above
6000 feet or so).

Another weaker trough will move toward the state Wednesday with
continued dry southwest flow. This will keep temperatures a few
degrees below normal once again, though winds will be lighter.
Look for dry and gradually warmer temperatures Thursday into
Saturday, with just a slight chance of storms near the White
Mountains Saturday afternoon. Sunday through Tuesday, another area
of low pressure along the west coast combined with high pressure
to our east is forecast to produce moistening southerly flow over
Arizona. There is uncertainty in the amount of moistening, so for
now we have introduced mainly lower end storm chances Sunday
through Tuesday.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions for the next 24
hours. Clearing skies and light southwest winds are expected for
the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...A break in monsoon storms will continue Wednesday
and Thursday. Expect lower than usual humidity for this time of
year, along with light southwest winds and slightly below normal

Friday through Sunday...Mainly dry conditions continue Friday and
Saturday, though a limited moisture return Saturday brings a slight
chance of thunderstorms near the White Mountains. Moisture is
forecast to spread farther north and west by Sunday with slight
thunderstorm chances returning to most of northern Arizona.






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