Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 141613

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
913 AM MST Sat Oct 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with lighter winds and above normal
temperatures are expected this weekend into much of next week.


.UPDATE...The current forecast is on track with winds gradually
becoming out of the north today as a dry cool front sags south
through the area. Wind speeds will be lighter than previous days.
Clear skies will continue. No morning updates are needed.


.PREV DISCUSSION /359 AM MST/...Winds will shift to the north this
morning as a weak cold front drops across the northern portion of
the area. Areas north and east of the Mogollon Rim will see the
biggest impact from this front with high temperatures 5-10 degrees
cooler than yesterday. From the rim southward, expect temperatures
to remain slightly above normal and similar to the values seen
yesterday. High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature
through the middle of next week with lighter winds and
temperatures remaining slightly above normal.

There still remains a considerable amount of model disagreement
with the evolution of energy moving onto the west coast after mid
week. Have maintained a slight chance of precipitation during this
period, but confidence in any one solution remains low at this


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions through
the 24 hour forecast period. Winds becoming N-NE at 5-15 kts
during the daylight hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Above above normal daytime temperatures and cool
nights today and Sunday. Winds will be much lighter compared to the
last several days, predominantly from the north or northeast and
less than 10 mph.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry and warm weather pattern will persist
next week, with generally light winds.






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