Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
FXUS65 KFGZ 242259
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
359 PM MST Mon Apr 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Breezy southwest winds will continue tonight as a
cold front approaches the state. Winds to increase again Tuesday
morning, especially across Navajo and Apache counties as the front
moves through. There is a chance of light showers across
northeast Arizona Tuesday. A colder and wetter system should
impact the northland Friday and Saturday.
.DISCUSSION...Southwest wind gust from 40 to 54 mph have been
observed this afternoon and the wind advisories will continue
through 7 pm mst. Winds to decrease overnight but remain S-SW at
10 -20 mph with higher gusts along and north of the Mogollon Rim.
These winds are due to a broad trough of low pressure across the
Great Basin and surface cold front laying west to east across
On Tuesday , another day of gusty winds is forecast, especially
for the southern halves of Navajo and Apache county. Present
indications are for SW winds of 40-55 mph in these areas, and
likely getting another early start. The cold front will drop
southward into Arizona on Tuesday, and bring a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the 4 corners area.
Wednesday should be a fair weather day with much less wind.
Thursday through Saturday- Operational models are in very good
agreement showing a colder trough developing over the Great Basin
and then moving over northern AZ. Look for increasing wind speeds
Thursday. The surface front should be dropping southward into our
area on Friday, the cold pool aloft with -25c temps at H5
overhead on Saturday. Precipitation chances start Thursday night
across the 4 corners and then expand westward to the Mogollon Rim
Friday. Moisture thins out Friday night but the cold pool
overhead Saturday should generate some convective showers along
and northeast of the Mogollon Rim. High and low temperatures will
be well below normal, with low 20s probable for the colder
location in the mountains Saturday morning. Sunday is a rebound
back to warmer and dry.
.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...VFR conditions under increasing
cloudiness today and tonight. Winds increasing and becoming
southwest at 15-25 KT with gusts 30-40 KT along and NE of a KGCN-
KFLG-KSOW line. Winds will remain gusty at higher elevation
locations overnight with winds increasing again late Tuesday
Morning. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...Strong winds will continue tonight across the
high country with gusty winds remaining overnight at most locations.
Breezy west winds increase in speed again Tuesday but minimum
humidities are forecast to remain above critical values and there
will be a chance for showers in northeast Arizona Tuesday and
Thursday through Saturday...Unsettled conditions with breezy west
winds each day. Daytime humidity forecast to remain above critical
thresholds in most areas. Slight chance of showers in northeast AZ
Wednesday night. Increasing chance of showers and cooler on Friday
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST
this evening FOR AZZ109>114-116- 139-140.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ011>017-039-040.
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