Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 192204
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS ARIZONA
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING HAS OVERCOME
THE WEAK STABLE LAYER ALOFT. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
FORMED IN APACHE COUNTY NEAR LYMAN LAKE AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY
NEAR PAYSON.

ON MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION FROM FLAGSTAFF TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

DRYING DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OR DOWNWARD MOVING AIR...WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
WARM AND SUNNY DAYS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND -TSRA OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N. ARIZONA THROUGH 03Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT
18Z ON MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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