Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 150339
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. A STRONGER MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING STORM COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ARE
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY MILD
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE SIMILAR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BELOW THE 500 MB LEVEL)
DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INSTABILITY AS SEEN THIS
WEEKEND...AND THUS EXPECT SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS. AREAS NORTH OF
THE RIM SHOULD HAVE ISOLATED DAY STORM COVERAGE WHERE WIND FLOW
ABOVE 500 MB IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WESTERLY.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE
INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA AND MOVE IT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK THERE IS A MOISTURE
GRADIENT WITH HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. THERE MAY BE AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN AZ. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GRAND
CANYON TO FLAGSTAFF TO HEBER LINE ARE DUE TO THIS FEATURE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE MAY
INTERACT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST IN
THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. STILL A BIT TO FAR OUT TO BE MORE
SPECIFIC.

IN SUMMARY...SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE SURGE INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AZ WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. FOR
FRIDAY...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING ON THE PATH OF ODILES`
LEFTOVER CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE AND ANY INTERACTION WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KGCN/KFLG/KSOW. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED STORMS. STRONGEST STORMS
WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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