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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 062225
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SWITCHING TO NORTHEASTERLY ON
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND AREAS OF VIRGA
CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING
ONTO THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
4-CORNERS FRIDAY...THEN DIG SOUTHWARD GENERALLY ALONG THE AZ/NM
BORDER SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA
FRIDAY...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING ON SATURDAY. THERE STILL
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
COLD POOL ALOFT CREATES SOME INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FRIDAY...THEN
CONFINED TO EXTREME EASTERN AZ SATURDAY. GUSTY NE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY SATURDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS
WIND. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
WEST COAST RIDGE TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS CAUSING AN INCREASE IN WIND ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TUE/WED. NO
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
BKN-OVC HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
AFTER FRI 12Z...EXPECT LOWERING CLOUDS BASES SCT-BKN 10-12KFT MSL
WITH CHANCES FOR MVFR -SHRA SPREADING SOUTH FROM THE UTAH BORDER
INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH SAT 00Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/DL
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF