


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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134 FXUS65 KFGZ 102144 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 245 PM MST Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Expect hot temperatures to continue at least through the weekend and into early next week. Moisture will be sparse, with only isolated activity through the weekend, primarily over the eastern portions of Arizona. && .DISCUSSION...Our ridge continues to flatten just a little bit and retrograde westward into the coming weekend. This will continue to cap our atmosphere and any moisture that may have a chance will be driven southward by northerly streamlines. NBM guidance continues to be driven by climo and we continue to tamp down PoPs, mainly in the first few days. The bottom line, don`t expect very much for at least the next 3-5 days, except for more heat. Some longer range guidance indicates the possibility of an easterly wave and a weak s/wv trough that may ramp up our activity for a few days, but confidence is low. && .AVIATION...Thursday 10/18Z through Friday 11/18Z...VFR conditions expected, with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA south of a KSOW-KSJN line. Winds are W 15-20 kts gusting to 30 kts, becoming light and VRB after 06Z. OUTLOOK...Friday 11/18Z through Sunday 13/18Z...VFR conditions expected. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA south of a KSOW-KSJN line on Friday, becoming isolated-scattered along a KFLG-KSOW-KJTC line on Saturday. Winds are generally W 10-15 kts gusting to 25 kts each day, light and VRB during the overnight periods. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Hot and mostly dry. Localized critical fire weather today in the Little Colorado River Valley with low humidity and a few gusts over 35 mph. Winds from the west 10-20 mph gusting 25-35 mph elsewhere, becoming 10-15 mph gusting 20-25 mph Friday and Saturday. Min RH is 5-10% north of the Mogollon Rim, and 10-20% south of the Rim each day. Isolated to scattered showers and storms along the higher terrain south of Flagstaff on Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday...Hot temperatures, but increasing precipitation chances each day. Highest chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will be over the higher terrain. Minimum RH values will be between 10-20% each day, with winds out of the west at 5-15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected near storms. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Lewandowski FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff