Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201113
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL DELIVER FAIR WEATHER...A FEW CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES FOR TUESDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST AZ
VALLEY AREAS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO ARIZONA.
HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MAIN IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING BY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.

FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...THE ECMWF MODEL STILL INDICATES THE
POSSIBILITY OF COLD...WINDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH SOME OTHER MODELS. KEPT LOW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...
CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG ARE
FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA WITH IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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