Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 241659

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
955 AM MST TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect breezy to windy conditions and below normal
temperatures through the week. A weak low pressure system will bring
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area by
Wednesday and Thursday.


.DISCUSSION...A deep trough continues to affect much of the western
United States this week. A low within the trough is seen on water
vapor imagery approaching SOCAL this morning. This low will bring
windy conditions to our area today and tomorrow, with slight chances
of showers developing in the cold core by Wednesday and Thursday.

This low will move away from the area by Friday, but troughing will
persist off the west coast through the weekend. Expect warming, but
breezy conditions will remain. An actual ridge may develop by the
middle of next week, just in time for June.

Current forecast looks fine, no updates this morning.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
northern Arizona through the forecast period with south to southwest
winds 15-20 knots gusting as high as 35 kts from 16z-03z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty southwest winds will continue Tuesday and
Wednesday with near critical fire weather conditions at lower
elevations each afternoon. On Wednesday, chances for showers and
thunderstorms are forecast in northern Coconino County as a trough
approaches the fire district.

Thursday through Saturday...The passage of weak weather disturbances
will cause breezy winds each afternoon as well as chances for
showers and thunderstorms along and north of the Mogollon Rim.






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