Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 290411
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
911 PM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
EVENING WILL BE FROM THE GRAND CANYON NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. COOL
DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS
WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER THIS EVENING. ONE MORE
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT AS
IT BOTTOMS OUT OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND THEN HEADS NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS LAST DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BAND OF
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TONIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO AREAS FROM THE GRAND CANYON NORTH TO
THE UTAH BORDER. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (330 PM MST)...THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSAGE
LIKELY MARKS THE END TO OUR SUMMER MONSOON PRECIPITATION SEASON
AND THE BEGINNING OF OUR DRIER FALL WEATHER PATTERN. EXPECT COLDER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS THE MOISTURE BLANKET HAS BEEN REMOVED
ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO MORE EFFICIENTLY RADIATE HEAT INTO
SPACE EACH NIGHT. HIGH COUNTRY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT BRING DRIER AIR TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY WILL BE
BREEZY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS UTAH AND
COLORADO...BECOMING LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...
BKN CLOUD DECKS AT 6-10 KFT AGL WILL AFFECT FAR NORTHERN AZ OVERNIGHT
WITH AN ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM KGCN-KRQE NORTHWARD.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 10-20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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