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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 290414
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
910 PM PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THURSDAY AND
WILL LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH WITH
THIS STORM...WITH MOST SNOWFALL OCCURRING ABOVE 8000 FEET. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH VIRGA SHOWING UP BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

THE FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY INCLUDES WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH IS
A BIT IFFY. 00Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE LOWEST SNOW LEVELS WILL GET
IS AROUND 7500 FEET AND THAT IS LATE IN THE GAME AND CLOSER TO THE
LOW CENTER. FORECAST SNOW LEVELS OF 8000 FEET OR LOWER IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS DO NOT SEEM LIKELY. QPF VALUES OVER THE WHITE ALSO SEEM
TOO HIGH...POINT AND CLICK VALUES SHOWING OVER 40 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS...THIS IS SIMPLY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

TOO LATE TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES ON THIS SHIFT...WE WILL PASS IT ON
TO THE NEXT SHIFT FOR THE FINAL DECISION. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS LIKELY
THAT THIS WATCH WILL NOT PAN OUT...CHECK BACK FOR DETAILS LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 22Z-24Z THURS...WITH SCT-NMRS -SHRA AND LOWERING CIGS AFT
00Z FRI. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT
WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONE 017 FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF