Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252223
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
325 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY. STARTING MONDAY...A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM LATE
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ARIZONA WILL REMAIN UNDER EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO HAS SLOWED DOWN
BY ABOUT 4-6 HOURS. THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD WILL ARRIVE LATER AS WELL
ON MONDAY...SO WE RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO. RAINFALL DOES
NOT ARRIVE IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON...MAYBE NOT
UNTIL MIDNIGHT FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS AND IT IS VERY WARM...SO QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS FAIRLY RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT SOME
WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW BY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT MAY FORM A
BIT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO COLDER
AIR MAY INTERACT WITH REMNANT SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PRODUCE SOME
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. STILL A BIT EARLY TOO TELL...BUT WE HAVE
RAISED POPS AGAIN FOR THE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 12Z...THEN SCT-BKN250 WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. SURFACE WINDS N-NE 10G20KT
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ELSEWHERE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....PETERSON
AVIATION...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.