Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 241636

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
936 AM MST SAT SEP 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry, mild and locally breezy north to northeast
winds today and Sunday as high pressure builds in over the western
states. Starting Monday, low pressure moving in from Mexico will
deliver a more moist southerly flow resulting in a chance for
showers and thunderstorms for much of next week.


As a trough stretched from the Canadian Rockies to the Four
Corners states continues to push east, Arizona is under the
influence of dry northerly flow on the back side of the trough.
Expect northeast winds to increase in speed and become locally
gusty this evening/tonight as the base of the trough closes off
and moves back into northern Mexico.

The current forecast has these trends well in hand. Only minor
updates were made to winds and temperatures today.


.PREV DISCUSSION /303 AM MST/...Low pressure aloft located over
the western states will split into two pieces over the next 24
hours. One piece will head to the northeast and away from Arizona.
A secondary, weaker portion of the low, will break off and wobble
over northwest Mexico. At the same time, high pressure will build
in over California and Nevada. The overall setup with high
pressure to the northwest and low pressure to the south will
result in dry conditions and locally gusty northeast to east winds
for Saturday and Sunday. Otherwise, look for seasonable
temperatures and mainly clear skies.

From Monday onward...The weak low over Mexico will slowly move
northwest into California then be absorbed by the general flow and
move to the northeast. In response to the position of the low
locally gusty east and then southeast winds will develop on Monday
and Tuesday becoming south to southwest starting Wednesday as the
low moves out of the area. The southeast flow on Tuesday will draw
moisture across Arizona. The result, the start of a chance of
showers and thunderstorms which will then last through much of
next week. Otherwise, seasonable temperatures will remain under
partly to mostly cloudy skies.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions are expected to
persist through 18Z Sunday. Expect locally gusty N/NE winds
overnight tonight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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