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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171031
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST THU JUL 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. MOISTURE
COULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA HAVE
DROPPED QUITE A BIT THIS MORNING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. WITH THIS
DECREASED MOISTURE...THERE HAS BEEN ALMOST NO SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SW YAVAPAI
AS OF 3 AM. WITH DAYTIME HEATING LATER TODAY...THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...TO MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. THE THREAT
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LOWER TODAY HOWEVER DUE TO DECREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY REPOSITIONS TO OUR
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO. DRIER AIR FRIDAY LEADS TO VERY LOW RAIN
CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH ARIZONA SATURDAY WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER STRENGTHENS OVER
NEW MEXICO AND THEN GRADUALLY EXPANDS TOWARD ARIZONA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE
TO OUR AREA...AND A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IF THE MOISTURE
RETURN TURNS OUT TO BE WEAKER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE 18-02Z...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON RIM...TO KAIBAB
PLATEAU. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 15
AND 20 PERCENT (BELOW 6000 FEET) DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE DISTRICT.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP AS FAR AS 10 AND 15 PERCENT (BELOW 6000
FEET) DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF