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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 121040
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 AM MST WED JUN 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DRY...WARM...AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY TO
OUR EAST WITH A FAIRLY ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BREEZY...
HOWEVER WITH THE PASSAGE OF DEEPER CLOSED LOWS AND TROUGHS...THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME OF THE DAYS APPROACHING IF NOT EXCEEDING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...TODAY...THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE SAME PERIOD WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO APACHE COUNTY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF THIS WEEK...AIDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEARLY DRY ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
ROUGHLY FROM A KPGA-KFLG LINE WESTWARD BY 17-18Z TODAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. IN PARTICULAR...A PAIR OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INFLUENCE WIND SPEEDS TODAY AND
THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA WILL BE ENHANCED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY...WITH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS A MUCH LARGER PORTION OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BREEZY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW 15 PERCENT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AGAIN ON FRIDAY...WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING 1 PM TO 8 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER
ZONES AZZ104-106-107.

RED FLAG WARNING 10 AM TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY
AZZ104>107-109-112-115-139.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......AT
FIRE WEATHER...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF