


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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320 FXUS65 KFGZ 070507 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1007 PM MST Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected this week. There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, mainly over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Temperatures will peak from Tuesday through Thursday, with very hot conditions at the lower elevations. && .DISCUSSION...Today and Monday...A ridge of high pressure begins to build over New Mexico, and becomes amplified by a cut off low off the California coast. Moisture increases slightly, allowing for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and again on Monday, mainly over the higher terrain. Drier air and slight capping will suppress much of the activity however. The main threats with any storm will mainly be gusty outflow winds. Tuesday through Saturday...The ridge continues to strengthen and eventually retrograde over Arizona. With this, moisture looks to remain in place to some degree, but the resulting subsidence inversion from the ridge will act to suppress any real chances for storm activity. Nevertheless, daily chances remain each afternoon, but remain slim and largely confined to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Hot temperatures look to be the main story for the middle of next week with the anomalously high heights (nearly 600 dam). Afternoon highs in the upper 80s F to lower 90s F can be expected across the higher terrain, with the lower deserts in the 100s F to near 115F in the warmest locations. An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for the Lower Elevations of the Grand Canyon for Tuesday through Thursday, as well as the lower elevations of Yavapai and Gila counties on Wednesday. && .AVIATION...Monday 07/06Z through Tuesday 08/06Z...VFR conditions, isolated thunderstorms possible over higher terrain between 18Z and 03Z. Winds light and variable or terrain driven overnight, SW 5-15kts, gusts 20-25kts during the day, light and variable or terrain driven Monday night. Winds may be gusty and erratic around thunderstorms. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 08/06Z through Thursday 10/06Z...VFR conditions, isolated thunderstorms possible along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains between 18Z and 03Z. Winds SW-W 5-10kts, gusts 15-20kts during the day, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Warming temperatures and mainly dry conditions. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, mainly over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph each afternoon with minimum afternoon RH 10- 20%. Gusty erratic outflow winds possible near thunderstorms. Wednesday through Friday...Hot and mainly dry conditions continue, outside of a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms near the White Mountains each afternoon. West winds 5-15 mph each day, along with minimum afternoon RH 8-20%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Monday to 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ006. Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ018- 037. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...Bernhart FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff