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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 020049
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
550 PM MST SUN MAR 01 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. FAIR AND MILD WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A PROLIFIC WARM FRONTAL EVENT OVER CENTRAL
ARIZONA LAST NIGHT AND MOST OF TODAY...THINGS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH FLAGSTAFF AND WILLIAMS...CURRENTLY RESIDING ROUGHLY FROM
PAGE TO GRAND CANYON AND SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD BAGDAD. SNOW LEVELS IN
THE WARM SECTOR ARE 7500-8500 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES TOWARD
THE WHITE MTNS. SNOW LEVELS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BAND ARE 6500 FEET
OR BELOW.

THE CURRENT WARM FRONT PROGRESSION WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE VERY FAR
OVERNIGHT AND THE DEEP SATURATION ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP AREAS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION GOING WELL INTO THE EVENING. THE
SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE COCONINO PLATEAU MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR
JUST HAVE IT TRANSITION INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TOMORROW.

LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WE GO FROM A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO
AN IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WEST OF KLAX WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO ENERGY SEEN OFF PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DEEP MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS IMPRESSIVE FRONTAL DYNAMICS...WILL
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW TO NEARLY ALL OF OUR AREA.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START THE DAY AROUND WHERE THEY ARE...BUT WILL FALL
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD ADVECTION...DEEP FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND
LATENT HEAT LOSS FROM HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL AID IN QUICKLY
REDUCING SNOW LEVELS. BY THE END OF THE DAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD
BE DOWN AROUND 5000 FEET FOR THE SNOW LEVELS...WITH POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES.
MANY AREAS ABOVE 6000 FEET ARE UNDER WINTER HEADLINES FOR TOMORROW.

AS MENTIONED...COLDER AIR ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT REMNANT MOISTURE
WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE SHOWERS GOING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT
AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW MORE INCHES IN FAVORED
AREAS OF UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRYING AND WARMING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT CONTINUED MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND SNOW OVER MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
STATE BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST CAUSING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. SNOW IS POSSIBLE BELOW 5000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
AZZ016>018.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM MST TUESDAY
FOR AZZ009-011-039.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ006-007-
015.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ004.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ006-
007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ008.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....PETERSON
AVIATION...RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF