Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 152253
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
348 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD. FOR THE
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WILL DECREASE THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TODAY HAS BEEN MUCH LESS ACTIVE NORTHWEST OF A
PRESCOTT TO FLAGSTAFF TO 4-CORNERS LINE...AS SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS FINALLY STARTED TO MIX OUT. SOUTH OF THIS LINE IT HAS
BEEN ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AREAS. STORMS TODAY HAVE MOVED SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH...WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS PRODUCING AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
OF RAIN WHICH IS LOW ENOUGH TO AVOID MOST OF THE FLOODING ISSUES WE
HAD YESTERDAY AFTN/EVENING. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN INTO EARLY
EVENING...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE THE
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM INCLUDING THE FLAGSTAFF AREA...PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN GILA AND SE YAVAPAI MAINLY SOUTH OF PAYSON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL SET UP OVER/NEAR ARIZONA CAUSING DRYING
CONDITIONS AND PREVENTING NEW MOISTURE FROM MOVING INTO THE
REGION...THOUGH SOME INCREASE COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS MONDAY. THIS
WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TUESDAY ONWARD...LONGER TERM MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST DISPLACING THE SUB TROPICAL HIGH
CENTER EASTWARD...POSSIBLY SETTING UP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA BY TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IS STILL UNCERTAIN...STAY
TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT -SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY SOUTH OF A KPRC-KRQE LINE UNTIL AROUND 03Z. MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLD STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 18Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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