Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 130404
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST SAT APR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...OVERNIGHT...EXPECT DECREASING WINDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING VERY
GUSTY WEST WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY AND BREEZY
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THIS
AFTERNOON HAS DISSIPATED...WITH JUST A FEW WEAK ECHOES OVER
NORTHEAST AZ AT 830 PM. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. STILL LOOKING WINDY FOR SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. STRONGEST WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE. NO FURTHER UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(230 PM MST)...ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL COMBINE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE DEEP VERTICAL MIXING. THE MIXING
WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH TO THE SURFACE FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE NAVAJO
NATION. A WIND ADVISORY (PHXNPWFGZ) IS IN EFFECT ON SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION AND MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AS DAYTIME HEATING PROGRESSES.
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY THEN NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

BY MONDAY MORNING...RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE COLORADO PLATEAU AND STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS LOOK TO DECREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS. FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE END OF THE WEEK...A ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS
LOOK IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER MAINLY DRY WEATHER
DISTURBANCE BRUSHES NORTHERN ARIZONA. LATER IN THE WEEK YET ANOTHER
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT NE OF
K0V7-KRQE...MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-25KT GUSTING TO 25-40KT FROM 17Z-02Z...STRONGEST
ALONG/NORTH OF MOGOLLON RIM...WITH SOME BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE IN NE
AZ. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT SUNDAY...
WINDS DECREASING AND BECOMING N-NW BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM...DRY AND WINDY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO ARIZONA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ON SUNDAY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT... EXPECT A WIND
SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. BY MONDAY EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHEASTERLIES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BRING CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EACH DAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
AZ FIRE ZONES 104>107-109-112>114-140.

WIND ADVISORY ON SUNDAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 8 PM MST AZ ZONES
011>014-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......JJ
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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