Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311713
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1013 AM MST SUN JAN 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE STATE NEAR THE UTAH BORDER THIS
MORNING. A COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND FALLING SNOW LEVELS.
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR UPDATES THIS MORNING REGARDING UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. OF
FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SNOW LEVEL FORECAST AND RAIN-
SNOW EVOLUTION AS THE STORM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...AND ANY
RESULTING IMPACTS ON SNOW TOTALS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /434 AM MST/...WELL, A FAIRLY RESPECTABLE STORM
EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD THIS SUNDAY MORNING. AS A GOOD MOISTURE
TAP AND JET DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT IS HEADING SOUTH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING IN SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS MORNING, THIS ATMOSPHERIC FEATURE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES ARIZONA,
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN COCONINO AND YAVAPAI
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC
PRECIP FORMING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND EASTERN MOGOLLON
RIM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THIS EVENING SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AT 6500 TO 75OO FEET. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD 1-3 HOURS
OF RAIN SNOW MIXED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. GOOD AMOUNTS OF MOIST AIR ARE
FORECAST TO SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG AND A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON TO THE EAST SNOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY
DROP...SO THAT BY MONDAY MORNING SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE FALLEN TO
AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET.

THE MOST INTENSE AND MOST SEVERE WINTER CONDITIONS/DRIVING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 800 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 600 AM
MONDAY MORNING...AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
TO MAKE MATTERS EVEN MORE UNFAVORABLE...WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH...HELPING TO
CREATE BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE BLOWING SNOW MAY CAUSE
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES...AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY MAKE CERTAIN
SECTIONS OF ROADS IMPASSABLE.

DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...MAKING
TRAVEL DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS IN PLACES.

THERE ARE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND SNOW ADVISORIES OUT FOR
NORTHERN ARIZONA...STARTING FIRST FOR THE NORTH AND SOUTH RIM OF
THE GRAND CANYON...THEN STARTING FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO...FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...NORTHER GILA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...WHITE MOUNTAINS...BLACK MESA...AND CHUSKA
MOUNTAINS...AND MOST VALLEYS INCLUDING THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND THE CHINLE VALLEY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
AS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SECTIONS OF
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES...HOWEVER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WARMER AND DRY...HOWEVER COLD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WITH THE NEW SNOW COVER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK...COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH STORM SYSTEMS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OR THROUGH NORTHERN
ARIZONA. TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
ARE POORLY DEFINED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS NORTH
OF A KGCN-KRQE LINE THROUGH 19Z-21Z...WITH SCT -SHRA/-SHSN. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. ALL AREAS
WILL EXPERIENCE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR DUE TO SN/RA WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR IN
HEAVY SNOW AFT 02Z-04Z. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS
OF LOWER ELEVATION MODERATE RAIN...BUT MAINLY HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW THROUGH 18Z MON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5
PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ008-009-018.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR AZZ007-011-015>017-039.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ004-006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/TC
AVIATION...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.