Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 150349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
849 PM MST Sat Oct 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with lighter winds and above normal
temperatures are expected through the weekend and much of next


.UPDATE...Locally breezy northeast winds will persist overnight in
favored locations along/south of the Mogollon Rim with diminishing
wind elsewhere. Otherwise clear skies are on tap overnight with
colder temperatures than last night for most areas. No updates
needed at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION /305 PM MST/...Another blue sky day is being
observed across northern Arizona with above average temperatures.
Winds have been gradually shifting to the north this afternoon,
and will continue a gradual shift to the northeast through this
evening. Some favored areas along and southwest of the Rim will
remain breezy overnight. A dry cool front moving through the area
is responsible for the wind shift as well as much drier air moving
into the state. Dew points have dropped into the single digits
across northwest Arizona. This drier air mass will allow for
colder temperatures than last night. In areas along and north of
the Rim, expect overnight lows of 5 to 10 degrees colder.

High pressure is then forecast to build into the region Sunday
through early next week. Expect continued dry conditions, light
winds, and warming temperatures.

There is still considerable model spread from next Friday into
next weekend with a potential trough impacting the region. The
most likely time period for any precipitation looks like Friday
night through Saturday when we will continue a slight chance for


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions through the
24 hour forecast period. Northerly surface winds 5-15 kts overnight
mainly from KFLG - KSOW southward. Lighter winds are forecast on
Sunday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and very dry conditions will continue into
Monday. Northerly winds this evening will become light Sunday and
Monday as high pressure builds over the region.

Tuesday through Thursday...The warm and dry weather will persist
next week.






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