Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 091641

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
941 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will lead to above normal daytime
temperatures along with relatively light winds and very dry
conditions through at least the next week.


.DISCUSSION...The ridge of high pressure continues to slowly
shift east over northern Arizona this morning resulting in a
significantly weaker pressure gradient over the area. This is
especially noticeable on the 12z RAOB from Bellemont this morning
which had less than 10 kts of wind from the surface to 500 mb.
Therefore, expect a much weaker wind regime than the past few
days. Winds will remain generally light over the weekend as the
ridge remains in control of our weather. High temperatures will
average 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the next several days
with little change in the weather pattern. There remains no sign
of meaningful precipitation through much of next week.

Current forecast handles this well and no updates are needed this


.PREV DISCUSSION /440 AM MST/...This morning`s upper-air analysis
reveals a deep long wave trough over the eastern United States,
with a high amplitude ridge over the western United States. This
blocking pattern is forecast to remain in place through at least
the end of the work week leading an extended period of dry
weather and above normal daytime temperatures.

Longer-term model guidance suggests this blocking pattern might
break down next weekend, with the potential passage of a dry cold
front. With that said, this front would likely lead to windier
and cooler conditions, but little chance for meaningful


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions through the
forecast period with clear skies. Localized NE winds 10-15 kts
along/south of the Mogollon Rim, less than 10 kts elsewhere.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A very dry northeasterly flow aloft will continue
this weekend. High pressure building over the region will bring
lighter winds and above normal temperatures.

Monday through Wednesday...Very dry north to northeast flow will
continue. Daytime temperatures will be close to 10 degrees above
normal, with light winds.






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