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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 070949
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY TODAYS FRONT...SWITCHING TO NORTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW A COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM SALT LAKE CITY
TO LAS VEGAS NV THENCE SOUTHWEST. MEASURED PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE
FRONTAL BAND ARE LESS THAN .10 INCH, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL CG
LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND WE
HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES TODAY...EXPECTING SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG & NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
TODAY.

ON SATURDAY...THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN AZ WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST. WE
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ACROSS SRN APACHE COUNTY.
WE WILL HAVE DEEP NORTH THEN NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND GUSTY N-NE SFC
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE WEST COAST
RIDGE TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS. LOOK FOR  GUSTY SW SFC WINDS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...BKN-OVC AC/SC/CU AND CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WEST WINDS
10-20KTS WILL BECOME NW THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN N-NE THIS EVENING.
SCT -SHRA/-SHSN WILL SPREAD FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
ISOLD SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. MOST ACTIVITY WILL
BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KKNB TO KGCN TO KFLG TO KSOW.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING NEAR THE WHITE MTNS
WITH VFR AND CLEARING FROM THE WEST ELSEWHERE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF