Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241051
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
351 AM MST FRI JUL 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OUT OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ARIZONA...WITH
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LIMITED TO MAINLY EASTERN ARIZONA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA EXCEPT FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES THROUGH AROUND MONDAY. THE
SUBTROPICAL MOIST WORKING NORTHWARD AROUND THE HIGH HAS MADE IT
INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE AS FAR NORTH AS ST. JOHNS AND
WINDOW ROCK...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY SHALLOW. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL
BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...PORTIONS OF
GILA COUNTY...WHITE MOUNTAINS...WINDOW ROCK...AND MAY EVEN AN
ISOLATED STORM NEAR FLAGSTAFF.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ARIZONA...STRENGTHENING THE DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS...AND THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH THE MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.

TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY THE MOIST SUBTROPICAL FLOW CONTINUES TO
SPREAD WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH RE-POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST OF ARIZONA...NOT
TOO FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA. NEVER LESS STORMS ACROSS THE LOW DESERTS CAN
PUSH MOIST OUTFLOWS NORTHWARD HELPING TO INCREASE MOISTURE AT
LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS THE MOGOLLON RIM LATER NEXT WEEK FOR A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM ACTIVITY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT-BKN200-250 THROUGH 18Z THEN ISOD-SCT
-SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 01Z KFLG-KV07 SOUTH. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM FLAGSTAFF TO THE FOUR CORNERS AND
SOUTHWARD TO AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
AT TIMES.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SLOW INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN WITHIN SEASONABLY NORMAL RANGES FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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