Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 161120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 AM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Drier and warmer conditions are will develop today and
into the weekend. Strong and gusty winds will form Sunday and
Monday, with a chance for rain and snow returning by Monday as


Fair and warming conditions are likely through the weekend, though
a slight chance for showers may persist in the White Mountains
today. Increasing southwest winds will develop Sunday ahead of
the next trough, with even stronger winds forecast for Monday.
Operational GFS and ECMWF remain quite divergent on how far to
bring the trough early next week and with how much associated
moisture it would produce across the Northland. Will have to
evaluate upcoming runs over the coming days, but for now we are
looking at a much cooler weather pattern and chances for precip
returning to northern Arizona.


.AVIATION...For the 12z Package...Primarily VFR for the next 24
hours across northern AZ. The exception is across southern Apache
county where local MVFR/IFR conditions in low clouds, fog and
isolated light showers. Surface winds variable to 10 kt. Aviation
discussion not updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER... For Friday through Saturday, expect fair weather.
Max temperatures to be around normal for the date today, and 5
to 8 degrees warmer Saturday. Poor afternoon ventilation is
anticipated with light mixing layer winds.

Sunday through Tuesday...On Sunday, gusty southwest winds return
as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Breezy to windy
conditions to persist Sunday night. A strong cold frontal passage
is expected Monday, with Mondays wind gusts currently forecast
from 40 to 55 mph, fastest speeds along and north of the Mogollon
Rim. Showers should return on Monday as well, with very much
colder temperatures Monday and Tuesday.






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