Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 282243
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
343 PM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO ALL OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA...WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR TODAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGIONS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, SOME OF OUR HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE DRAW INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLANES
STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL ALONG ARIZONA`S NORTHERN BORDER AND IN THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU WHERE DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN. BY THURSDAY, DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

FRIDAY ONWARD...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS WHILE MAINTAINING A MOISTURE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THIS MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...XPCT SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTVTY FROM
KSOW SE THRU 03Z...WITH ISOLD STORM ACTVTY AS FAR NW AS KFLG
...THEN ISOLD ACTVTY OVERNIGHT FROM I-40 SOUTH. CONDS TO PRIMARILY
REMAIN VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA XPCTD TO DVLP BTWN 17-19Z WEDNESDAY SE OF
A KPAN-KRQE LINE...WITH ISOLD MVFR/IFR CONDS NEAR STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO THE UTAH BORDER ON THURSDAY. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS BOTH AFTERNOONS. MAIN
THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, HAIL, STRONG
WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.