Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 212241

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
341 PM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A few showers will develop over northwest Arizona
through early this evening with otherwise fair weather overnight.
Expect breezy winds Wednesday afternoon followed by much colder
temperatures Thursday as a passing cold front moves through the
area. There will be a slight chance of showers over far northern
Arizona Wednesday evening into Thursday. An unsettled pattern will
develop late in the weekend and early next week, with better
chances for rain and snow.


.DISCUSSION...A moisture plume has moved across northwest Arizona
this afternoon out ahead of a developing west coast trough. A
line of showers has developed and will affect mainly western
Coconino and extreme NW Yavapai counties late this afternoon and
early evening, dissipating by late evening. Could even see a few
lightning strikes in this area. Fair weather will continue
elsewhere through tonight, with low temperatures several degrees
above average.

For Wednesday...expect increasing southwest winds as the trough
moves further inland and a cold front approaches Arizona. Northern
Arizona will see wind gusts of 30-40 MPH and a few gusts could
reach 45 mph or so. Didn`t issue a wind advisory for Wednesday at
this time due to extensive cloud cover that is expected to reduce
vertical mixing, and could keep the higher gusts limited and
brief. Model trends continue to look drier with the frontal
passage late Wednesday/Thursday, so slight rain/snow shower
chances are limited to areas near the AZ/UT border. Still
expecting about a 15 degree drop in high temperatures Thursday.
Dry but continued cool weather is expected Friday through

Forecast model guidance continues to trend later with the weekend
trough passage with better potential for rain and snow from
Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. There is consistency among
operational model runs with an initial wave bringing precipitation
Sunday afternoon followed by a colder trough moving through on
Monday or Monday night. Still some timing issues and the usual
uncertainty with precip amounts this far out, but we increased
PoPs slightly with today`s forecast. This has the potential to be
a significant rain and higher elevation snow event but it`s too
early for many details, so continue to monitor later forecasts as
we get closer to the weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hours. Scattered rain showers from around KGCN
northwest through 03-06Z. On Wednesday...gusty southwest surface
winds of 20-35 kts developing by midday. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.





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