Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 232321

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 PM MST TUE AUG 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect decreasing storm activity this evening and into
Wednesday as an upper low moves away from the area. Scattered storms
are expected again on Thursday and Friday, before a significant
drying and warming trend develops over next weekend.


.DISCUSSION...An upper low now approaching the four corners will
continue to move east overnight. Unseasonably cold air aloft and
some dynamics allowed a few storms to develop later today. This was
despite significant cloud cover and a rain cooled boundary layer
from earlier this morning.

This activity will persist into the evening as many areas still
have not been worked over. However, with rapid cooling this evening
and the low moving east, the evening activity is not expected to
last very long.

Drier and warmer air aloft will trail this low on Wednesday, with
weak return flow possibly ticking up the pops Thursday and Friday.
Drying and warming then really begins in earnest over the weekend
and into next week. This time frame will feature a significant
decrease in activity and a pronounced warming trend.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to continue across the area today as an upper level
low moves over the region. Lower cloud ceilings with brief
intrusions into MVFR conditions are possible with the stronger
storms. Storm should decrease around 03z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.






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