Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 032252
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
352 PM MST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR TODAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GILA, AND
SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS HAS BEEN LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRIMARILY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH
OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT OUTFLOWS FROM
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA MAY TRIGGER NEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM
FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD - ALTHOUGH THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS
PREDICTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY,
WITH THE GREATEST ACTIVITY ROUGHLY EAST OF LINE FROM
PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF-PAGE. LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, BUT INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MEANS LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SATURDAY ONWARD...AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND...FLOW WILL TURN WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF KEEPS MOISTURE MUCH MORE LIMITED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHILE THE GFS IS MORE FAVORABLE TO RETURNING
STORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO OBSERVE MODEL FORECAST
TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING ACROSS NAVAJO, APACHE, AND GILA COUNTIES. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z FRIDAY PRIMARILY ALONG
AND EAST OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF-PAGE LINE. ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOD/HVY
RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY STORM OUTFLOWS TO 30 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...CLM


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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