Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301645
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE RANGING FROM 6000 FEET ACROSS THE NAVAJO
NATION TO 8000 FEET IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.  SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER A BIT TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND WATER VAPOR SHOW A PLUME OF VERY MOIST AIR ALONG A LINE
FROM THE FOUR CORNER THROUGH TUCSON WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS IN THE -50C
RANGE. PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR TODAY WERE MASSAGED TO INCREASE LIQUID
AMOUNTS BY ABOUT 0.10 ACROSS APACHE COUNTY. THE UPPER LOW IS NEAR
NEEDLES CA WITH A SECOND AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS SRN NEVADA.

WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE WINDOW
ROCK AREA AS THEY HAVE 2 INCHES ON THE GROUND AND THE MOIST PLUME IS
SHOWN TO BE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

CAN`T SAY MUCH ABOUT THE FORECAST FROM TONIGHT ONWARD YET. THE UPPER
LOW CENTER IS NEAR LAS VEGAS AND THE SOUNDINGS FROM THEM WILL HELP
REFINE SNOW LEVELS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 350 AM...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THIS MORNING JUST
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE...PW VALUES OF OVER AN INCH MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE LOW
UP INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY.
THE LOW CENTER IS SHOWN TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO AROUND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA BY 5 PM TODAY. THE PATH OF THE LOW
CENTER BRINGS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT
AND MODERATE OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION FROM DURING THE DAY TODAY THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY.
THEN THE LOW DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH AWAY
FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...THIS WILL TEND TO PULL
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SOUTH FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM...YAVAPAI
COUNTY...NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR AND
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING
A RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE SNOW LEVEL FORECAST ARE: FOR TODAY...AROUND 8000 FEET ALONG THE
UTAH BORDER AND NEARING 8500 FEET IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY MORNING SNOW LEVELS TO BE AROUND 7000 FEET IN
WESTERN ARIZONA TO 7500 FEET NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED BELOW 8500. AT OR JUST BELOW THE
8500 FOOT LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AROUND 3 INCHES ARE FORECAST.
ABOVE 8500 FEET THOUGH STORM TOTALS SHOULD BE IN THE 18 TO 30 INCH
RANGE.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL / LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
5 PM SATURDAY RANGE FROM 0.5 INCH IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO 2.25
INCHES. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY SUNDAY. NORTHERN ARIZONA CAN LOOK FORWARD TO
DRYING WEATHER WITH WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
AND LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BE
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONE 011 THROUGH 5 PM
SATURDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 8500 FEET FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONE 017
THROUGH 5 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL TC
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











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