Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 220107
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
600 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Two additional winter storms will continue to affect
the region, the first is currently moving out of eastern Arizona,
with lingering snow showers this evening. The second winter storm
is forecast to arrive late Sunday through Monday, bringing
additional moderate to heavy snow accumulations above the 6000
foot level, with lighter amounts down to 5000 feet. Hazardous
driving conditions should be anticipated due to snow and blowing
snow. Expect precipitation to wind down Tuesday with very cold
temperatures through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...the storm that brough heavy snow to the higher
elevations over the past few days is moving away from the region
this afternoon, with some lingering snow showers through early
this evening mainly east of a Flagstaff to Payson line. Winter
Storm Warning and advisory products will expire at 6 PM. There
will be a break in the weather later tonight through much of
Sunday, though increasing moisture ahead of the next system will
bring a chance of rain and snow back to western Arizona by
afternoon with snow levels close to 5000 ft. Snow and rain is
expected to increase later Sunday evening and continue all the way
through Monday night as strong upslope flow and increasing large
scale lift affect the region. Snow levels should rise to 5500 to
6000 ft or so Sunday night, then fall to below 5000 ft late
Monday. There is a potential for additional heavy snow
accumulations for elevations above 6000 ft, with lighter amounts
down to around 5000 ft. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued from
the Kaibab Plateau across the Mogollon Rim, into northern Gila
and Yavapai counties above the 6000 ft level from Sunday evening
through late Monday night, for a general 6-12 inches of snow. Locally
higher amounts possible along southwest facing slopes. Forecast snow
amounts for northeast Arizona and the White mountains are lower
and these areas were not included in the watch, but could later be
added to advisory products in needed.

By Tuesday afternoon clearing conditions are expected however cold
air will reside across the region through at least Thursday with
overnight lows expected to drop down near zero degrees in prone
locations with widespread single digits to teens across the high
country. Lower elevations like the Little Colorado River Valley
will see values closer to low 20s... with the lowest elevations
struggling to climb back into the mid thirties. Temperatures will
slowly begin to rebound by next weekend however the significant
snow cover will work against any quick warming trend..and could
allow for extremely cold temperatures in the high altitude cold
basins tuesday night and beyond if clear skies and calm winds
develop. For the time being have not jumped onto these extremely
cold conditions for mid week just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Showers will continue to taper off
from from west to east this afternoon and evening...holding on the
longest in the White Mountains region and the mountainous terrain of
far northeast Arizona. Expect periods of MVFR ceilings and
visibilities under rain and snow showers, with IFR ceilings and
visibilities possible over higher terrain in Navajo and Apache
Counties. Areas of fog may form overnight at locations that
experience clearing. A third weather system is due to impact
northern Arizona on Sunday. Expect increasing rain and snow showers
from west to east beginning after 15Z Sunday. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night FOR
AZZ004-006>008-015-016-018.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


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