Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS65 KFGZ 231630

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
930 AM MST Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible across Navajo and Apache counties through early this
afternoon. Otherwise cool conditions will persist this weekend as
a low pressure system sits over the Great Basin. Expect freezing
temperatures for much of the high country Sunday and Monday
mornings. A chance for precipitation returns starting Wednesday.


.UPDATE...A band of showers is draped across Apache County this
morning and has produced light rainfall amounts up to about to
about 0.25". This band will continue moving east through early
afternoon before exiting the state by late afternoon. Have updated
the forecast based on current radar/satellite trends, but no major
changes. Otherwise, cool and breezy conditions continue today with
low pressure situated to our northwest over Nevada.


.PREV DISCUSSION /424 AM MST/...A large scale trough of low
pressure will remain over most of the western U.S. for the next
several days. There is a surface cold front along a line from
Grand Junction-Bryce Canyon-Las Vegas that will move into northern
AZ this afternoon.

We are seeing clouds, widely scattered showers and a few tstorms
early this morning east of a line from Payson to Kayenta. To our
west, an upper level disturbance is noted over central Nevada. For
today, both these features to move eastward. Thus look for
decreasing shower coverage across Navajo then and Apache counties
this afternoon while the upper level disturbance brushes the AZ/UT
border and brings a slight chance of afternoon showers to the
Kiabab Plateau.

A freeze warning is in effect for early Sunday morning as colder
air and light winds move into the northland. The warning is for
zones above 6500 feet and along or north of the Mogollon rim,
where temps from 24 to 32 degrees are forecast.

Fair and dry weather is expected from Sunday through Tuesday
night. Both high and low temperatures will be below normal.

Progs are in fair agreement showing another disturbance dropping
southward and developing into a closed low centered over western
Arizona from Wednesday through Friday. Precipitation chances were
raised for this period especially across Navajo add Apache
counties. This system looks warm enough to preclude snow for all
at this time.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hours. A few showers will continue over eastern Arizona until
20Z. Otherwise, south to southwest winds from 10-20 knots with gusts
from 20-30 knots at most places, diminishing after 02Z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...On Saturday, expect breezy south to southwest winds
and below normal temperatures. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are forecast across Navajo and Apache Counties. On Sunday, look for
light winds, dry weather and well below normal temperatures.

Monday through Wednesday...Expect light winds and below normal
temperatures. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase on
Wednesday as a low sets up over the area.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Freeze Warning from midnight
tonight to 8 AM MST Sunday FOR AZZ004-007-011-015>017-039.




For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.