Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 201641

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
941 AM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to strengthen over
Arizona through much of the coming week. Daytime temperatures
will warm enough by Wednesday, Thanksgiving and Friday to
challenge long standing high temperature records.


.UPDATE...900 AM temperatures are as much as 10 degrees warmer
this morning than they were yesterday morning. Forecast highs are
5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday and this looks good. No
updates needed this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /252 AM MST/...Model forecasts continue to show
strong high pressure building over the southwest United States
through Thanksgiving Day then slowly heading eastward through the
holiday weekend.

For today...Very dry air remains in place. Strong nighttime
radiational cooling will allow for another round of quite chilly
low temperatures this morn. High temperatures today will warm
another 5 degrees or so over Sunday as a milder air mass moves in.
Look for another day of light winds with some high cloudiness
streaming across the area.

From Tuesday onward...High pressure will continue to build into
Thanksgiving Day then slowly head eastward through Sunday. The
result will be dry weather, generally light winds and periods of
high clouds. Along with the building high an exceptionally warm
air mass will develop aloft across northern Arizona. The result
will be daytime high temperatures climbing from 15 to 20 degrees
above normal for the period Wednesday through Friday. A few long
standing high temperature records will be challenged through this
period. Low temperatures will turn seasonably mild under the
influence of the warmer daytime temperatures and a slight increase
in moisture which will reduce the effects of radiational cooling.
Locally gusty northeast winds may develop from the Mogollon Rim
southward on Wednesday and Thursday as surface high pressure
builds across the Four Corners.

The next chance at any decent amount of precipitation still
appears to be more than ten days away.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions through 18z Tuesday
with bkn-ovc skies, cloud bases aoa 16 kft msl. Variable sfc winds
to 10 kt. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry weather with a warming trend today and
Tuesday as high pressure builds over the region. Periods of high
clouds expected. Mainly westerly winds today will become north-to-
northeast Tuesday but remain rather light.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry conditions with light winds are
expected as strong high pressure continues over the state. Daytime
temperatures will warm even further becoming 15+ degrees above
normal each day, with the potential for record high daytime






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