Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271121
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
420 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WEST. THIS STORM WILL
BRING AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONE LAST S/WV IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS THE WEAKEST OF THE LAST THREE AND
IS OPERATING ON A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. PATCHY SC IS SEEN DEVELOPING
ON THE IR...MOSTLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF KFLG. THE CLOUDS ARE
BARELY DISCERNIBLE FROM THE SKIN TEMPERATURE OF THE FRIGID GROUND
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT THEY ARE THERE. THESE CLOUDS WILL
PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...BEFORE MIXING OUT
INTO THE VERY DRY AND STABILIZING AIRMASS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN RATHER COLD. A MAJOR TROUGH STARTS TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MONDAY...THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND CUT OFF SOMEWHERE
WEST OF ARIZONA.

THIS HAS POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER FOR
ARIZONA...BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE LOW. DIFFERING IDEAS ON HOW FAR THE LOW WILL RETROGRADE WILL
MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES WITH OUR FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MAKE THE CALL AT THIS TIME.

FOR NOW...IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR
AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY SEEMS TO BE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS SLIGHTLY UPWARD AT
THIS TIME...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SCT-BKN090 NORTH OF A KGCN-KQ35 LINE THROUGH 18Z WITH ISOLD
-SHSN PRODUCING BKN030 CIGS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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