Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 270344
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
845 PM MST TUE AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&
.DISCUSSION...IT WAS AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN. MOST ACTIVITY IS
NOW IN EASTERN GILA...SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DROP POPS AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE
WESTERN ZONES.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /320 PM MST/...

RECENT HRRR RUNS CONSISTENT WITH DOWNSWING IN ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS LIMITED TO NE AZ AFTER
06Z. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT THESE FORECASTS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP...MOST NUMEROUS OVER
AND NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING FAIR AND WARM WEATHER
TO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST EAST OF A
KPAN-KSJN. STORMS WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH 10Z. ISOLD TSRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18-02Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1100 PM MST FOR AZZ013-014-016>018.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/BAK
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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