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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261631
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
931 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA INTO FRIDAY. A DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST ARIZONA. A
STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE STATE...ALTHOUGH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SNOW IS
POSSIBLE DOWN TO AROUND 5500 FEET. THE CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURES
THIS WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /400 AM MST/...
A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE COMING WEEK.

FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO MONDAY...A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA. AMPLE MOISTURE AND
STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
LIQUID COULD FALL INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000
FEET WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THE SNOW LEVEL
WILL START OUT SOMEWHAT ELEVATED RANGING FROM AROUND 5500 FEET OVER
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO ALMOST 8000 FEET OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOW LEVELS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA LOWERING
TO NEAR 4500 FEET AND TO AROUND 6500 FEET OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOKING AT 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE THE 8000 FOOT
LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE VARIABLE AND
CHANGING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. GO TO WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR
YOUR SPECIFIC FORECAST. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON SATURDAY WHEN GUST IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY....THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLDER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MUCH LOWER WITH THIS
THIRD SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW.

CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS AND PRECIPITATION TIMING.
SNOW LEVELS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS THIS EVENT
NEARS. THERE IS A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM INCLUDING NORTHERN GILA
COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MAJOR IMPACTS...PLEASE STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.

PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO GET YOUR WINTER TRAVEL KIT REPLENISHED...
MAKE SURE THE CAR/TRUCK HAS A FULL TANK OF GAS ETCETERA.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A 10-20% CHANCE OF -SHSN/-SHRA ARE FCST TO
DVLP AFT 21Z ARND THE 4 CORNERS AREA AND THEN AFT 06Z TONIGHT ALONG
AND NE OF A LINE FROM KGCN-KINW-KSJN...WITH LCL MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS ARE FCST. EXPECT BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM N AFT 19Z TODAY...THEN DECREASING AFT 01Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF