Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181549
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
849 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY. ONLY A FEW AREAS WILL SEE ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 5500 FEET AND IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE STATE TODAY. AT THE
MOMENT...THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY OF
FLAGSTAFF AND NORTHWARD. RADAR AND HI-RES MODELS SHOW A MESO
SURFACE LOW JUST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOGOLLON RIM
LEADING TO A TERRAIN INDUCED LINE OF SHOWERS SUSTAINED BY SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY BELOW ABOUT 630 MB. THIS BAND IS SLOWLY MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST AND MOTORIST WILL WANT TO WATCH OUT FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
I-17...I-40...HWY 180 AND US 89 IN THE VICINITY OF FLAGSTAFF FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THIS SYSTEM WILL TREK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST LARGE-
SCALE UPWARD MOTION WILL BE LOCATED. SNOW LEVEL WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM NEAR 4500 FEET ALONG THE UTAH BORDER TO AROUND 6000
FEET ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. IN GENERAL, AN ADDITIONAL 1 OR 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION BANDS.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE, CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A SERIES OF WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH ARIZONA RESULTING IN CHANGES IN CLOUD COVER
AND DAILY WINDS. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS LIKE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO SUNDAY OR MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY LOWER NEXT WEEK. IF THERE
IS ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TODAY IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 22Z FRIDAY. LINGERING SCT MVFR STRATUS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN AZ IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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