Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280327
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A COOLING TREND IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION... CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS DECREASING THIS EVENING BUT NOT
ENDING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE COME TOGETHER ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
AND CREATED ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS STRETCHING FROM LAKE MARY TO
FOREST LAKES. THIS LINE IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO NORTHERN GILA COUNTY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN NRN GILA COUNTY AND THE WHITE MTNS MEASURED
OVER 0.50 INCH OF PRECIP TODAY.

WE HAVE MASSAGED THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SOUTH
OF I-40 AND REDUCE IT ALONG THE UTAH BORDER. PRECIP CHANCES WERE
ALSO INCREASED FOR THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MTNS AND NRN
GILA COUNTY ZONES PER CURRENT RADAR.

THE HEAT WARNING FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION OF THE GRAND CANYON WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM TONIGHT. PHANTOM RANCH AT 114 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&
PREV DISCUSSION 357 PM....SO FAR TODAY, THE
GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN AND
AROUND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM. WE DID RECEIVE
A REPORT FROM VERNON INDICATING ENOUGH PEA SIZED HAIL FELL FROM ONE
OF THE DAYS STRONGER STORMS TO COVER THE GROUND. MOSTLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED ELSEWHERE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN
YAVAPAI COUNTY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO, AND HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GENERALLY SPEAKING, TODAY HAS BEEN
A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS.

FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TO
A MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA EACH DAY. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SCT SHRA
ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED EAST OF A KPAN-KRQE LINE THROUGH 17Z WITH BKN-
OVC15-200 CIGS. FAIR WX ELSEWHERE. AFT 17Z SUNDAY...LOOK FOR
INCREASING COVERAGE OF TSRA PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASES. GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY THAN ON
SUNDAY. ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA EACH AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THOSE OBSERVED LAST WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ006.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL RR
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...AT


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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