Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 250420

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
920 PM MST Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Excessive heat will continue across the lower valleys
of Yavapai County and the Grand Canyon through Sunday. A cooling
trend will develop next week. The best chances for afternoon
thunderstorms will be Sunday along the Mogollon Rim from
Flagstaff to Alpine. Thunderstorm chances will then decrease
daily Monday through the end of next week.


Isolated showers are coming to an end across northern Arizona this
evening. Another hot day remains in store across the state for
Sunday, with a bit of an increase in storm activity expected.


.PREV DISCUSSION /319 PM MST/...Based off the latest HRRR-smoke
model output, areas of smoke from the Boundary Fire will
continue to affect the Flagstaff area at least through Sunday.
Furthermore, smoke from the Brian Head Fire in Utah will affect
areas along the UT/AZ border tonight and Sunday, primarily in the
Page area. Dense smoke visibility restrictions are not expected at
this time. However, motorists should remain cognizant of rapidly
changing visibilities Sunday morning.

The excessive heat warnings for the lower valleys of Yavapai
County and Grand Canyon will remain in effect through Sunday. By
Monday, the high pressure responsible for this heatwave will
flatten out and will shift southwest over the Pacific Ocean west
of Baja California. This will lead to a more westerly zonal
pattern over the southwestern US, with a cooling trend forecast
over northern Arizona through the end of next week.

Gusty southwest winds are forecast to develop Tuesday and
Wednesday. Models continue to indicate critical fire weather
thresholds could be met. At this time, precipitation chances after
mid week look minimal.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect primarily VFR conditions
for the 24-hour period, though smoke from area wildfires may
bring MVFR/IFR visibilities to KFLG and KPGA overnight. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop over the Mogollon Rim Sunday afternoon,
with the highest chances over the White Mountains. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Thunderstorms will be possible along the Chuska
Mountains and Mogollon Rim including Flagstaff on Sunday
afternoon. Max temps will remain around 10 degrees above normal.
The chance for high based thunderstorms will continue across
Apache and southern Navajo counties Monday afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday...Gusty southwest winds will return
during the afternoons with critical fire conditions possible
Tuesday and Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances will remain confined
to the White Mountains.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 9
PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ005-006-037.




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