National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 302207
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
307 PM MST SAT NOV 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AFFECT THE VALLEYS NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...WITH MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLD WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UNUSUAL AREA OF EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTS THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHERN/EASTERN FRINGES OF MOGOLLON RIM
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE UT BORDER. OTHER
THAN THE WESTERN EDGE SLOWLY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS
HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH
INVERSIONS STRENGTHENING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY AND PROBABLY INTO
MONDAY AS WELL. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
HAVE TAKEN A DIVE IN THE AREAS TRAPPED UNDER THE CLOUDS/FOG AND HAVE
THUS COOLED HIGH TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH
MONDAY. THE ONLY REAL CHANCE AT SCOURING OUT THE COLD AIR WILL COME
TUESDAY AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP. ELSEWHERE...MILD WEATHER WITH
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS
A VERY COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30-40+ MPH ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO AZ LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO WINTER WEATHER
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AZ. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS TODAY ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE TO
TREND DOWNWARD ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE A
LOW/MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE BIGGER IMPACT MAY BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO OUR LOWEST ELEVATIONS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

THE FRONT PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD TROUGH LINGERING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY KEEPING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
SEASON ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHERE MOST LOCATIONS
5000 FEET AND ABOVE WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND FAVORING
COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...A SIGNIFICANT FOG AND LOW CLOUD
EVENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. COLD AIR AND
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION THAT SHOWS NO SIGN OF WEAKENING. THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG EXISTS ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM KKNB TO KGCN TO
KFLG TO KSOW AND KSJN. EXPECT AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN
THESE AREAS. MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z-22Z
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF