Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 171057

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
357 AM MST Wed May 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A strong cold front will drop south today and tonight
delivering a round of gusty winds and cooler temperatures along
with a band of showers and thunderstorms. The chance of showers
and cool temperatures will linger Thursday before warmer weather
moves into the area for the weekend and early next week.


.DISCUSSION...A period of unsettled weather is in store for
northern Arizona over the next few days before fair weather
returns for the weekend and early next week.

A potent low pressure system currently over southern Idaho will
drop southeast into Utah by tonight. The strong cold front ahead
of this system will drop into northern Arizona this afternoon
into tonight. Good forcing along the front will result in a band
of showers and thunderstorms developing and moving south across
the Utah/Arizona border this afternoon and reaching the White
Mountains by early Thursday morning. Models remain consistent in
indicating between 0.10-0.40" of precipitation with the cold
front. This front will also usher in a much cooler airmass over
the region with snow levels falling to between 6500-7500 feet
after frontal passage. An inch or two of snow accumulation is
expected along the Black Mesa and Chuska Mountains. This system
will also bring gusty southwest winds to the region later this
morning through the early evening hours. A wind advisory is in
effect for a large portion of the area from the Mogollon Rim north
and east with gusts of 35-45 mph expected.

The focus of the shower activity will shift to east-central
Arizona on Thursday, but cool temperatures will remain over the
entire region. Warmer and dryer weather is on the way for the
weekend and into early next week. Temperatures are expected to
warm to above normal by early next week.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Southwest winds will increase
later this morning becoming 17-27G30-40KT across much of northern
Arizona after 17Z. Chances for showers develop through the day, with
the best chances after 21Z and continue through the evening hours
along a cold front. Expect MVFR conditions in heavier showers.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Cool and windy conditions are expected today as a
cold front moves southeastward across the district. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely across the northeastern portion of Arizona,
with lesser shower chances west and south of the Mogollon Rim.
Conditions will trend dryer Thursday with winds weakening

Friday through Sunday...Expect warming conditions and light
springtime breezes as the weather disturbance moves eastward.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening
FOR AZZ004-007-009-011>017-039-040.




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