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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021033
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
333 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TODAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF ARIZONA. A FEW WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES COULD
BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT IS NOW OVER
CENTRAL AZ. AHEAD OF THE LOW...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION CONTINUES TO
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BUT THIS WILL RAPIDLY COME TO AN END
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE LOW CENTER...THE
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
BRING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES. THESE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT COULD
POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 10 AM FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...BUT HAVE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM.

TONIGHT...A WEAK AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
ONTO THE NORTHERN CA SHORE WILL CROSS NORTHERN AZ AND MAY PRODUCE A
FEW HIGH ELEVATION SHOWERS...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. YET
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO BRING
CLEARER SKIES.

A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLIP THE FOUR CORNERS AREA FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD LIKELY BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH A PERIOD OF COOLER AND
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REBUILD QUICKLY
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-NMRS -SHRA/-SHSN WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...EAST OF A LINE FROM KPAN-KFLG-KPGA. AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG ALONG AND WEST OF THE LINE MENTIONED
ABOVE THRU 15Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS DECREASING AND BCMG ISOLD AFT 18Z.
SNOW LEVELS 6500-7500 FEET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST SUNDAY FOR AZ ZONE 17 ABOVE
7000 FEET.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DJO
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF