Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 262240
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 PM MST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THEN REDEVELOP THURSDAY. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH A POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING...HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. LOOK FOR A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARIZONA STARTING FRIDAY AND PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION... WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS COCONINO AND
NORTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LINE OF STORMS
STRETCHING FROM CHINO VALLEY TO HOTEVILLA AND TUBA CITY. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS CENTERED TO OUR EAST BUT IS FORECAST TO
REFORM ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ WITH TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE
VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW
DECENT MOISTURE TO STICK AROUND THE AREA. THUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY......SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND BRINGS A DEGREE OR TWO OF MID LEVEL WARMING. PROGS
CONTINUE TO MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SOUTHEAST OF
A PAYSON TO WINDOW ROCK LINE. KEPT A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE WHITE MTNS AND VICINITY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. STORM CHANCES ARE NIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOR ALL EXCEPT FOR APACHE COUNTY.

MODELS HINTING AT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE STATE AS EARLY AS
MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER MOISTURE INCREASE ESPECIALLY NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES. PRECIP CHANCES ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...MOST NUMEROUS
NORTH OF A LINE FROM KPRC...KINW...KRQE. STORMS WILL DECREASE AND
BECOME ISOLATED AFTER 07Z. LCL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.