Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 200402

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
902 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will continue to keep showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through at least Thursday. On
Friday, a dry westerly flow will decrease shower coverage across
northwestern Arizona with decent chances for thunderstorms hanging
around across Navajo and Apache counties.


Though southern Arizona remains active this evening, storm
activity has diminished to isolated coverage across northern
portions of the state. Short-term forecast reflects this well,
with no major updates anticipated in the near future.


.PREV DISCUSSION /410 PM MST/...Wednesday`s weather will continue
to be active with heavy showers and thunderstorms across
northern Arizona. An upper level low identified in the 200-300 mb
streamlines and vorticity pattern may enhance thunderstorm
activity in the late afternoon across portions of central Arizona.
Extensive cloud cover in the morning across southern Navajo and
Apache counties may delay the start of convection into the late
afternoon with some activity continuing into the evening hours
over portion northeastern Arizona.

Thursday and Friday...Deeper moisture will persist across the
state with good chances for storm activity. By Friday a drier
airmass moving in from the West will start a transition to drier
low grade Monsoon activity. This drier air will lower chances for
convection in Coconino and Yavapai counties, however higher
moisture and instability will linger over eastern Arizona keeping
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

Saturday and Sunday...Only isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast through the weekend as a drier
airmass settles in across northern Arizona. Precipitable water
ranges from a quarter of an inch along the Utah border to around
three quarters of an inch along the Mogollon Rim. This drier
forecast will not be similar to the extended break in the wet
Monsoon during the first half of July.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Isolated storms will continue
overnight. Look for sct-nmrs SHRA/TSRA to redevelop between 17z-
02z Wednesday. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions with small hail and gusty
winds possible with stronger storms. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Thunderstorms can be expected across the forecast
area both Wednesday and Thursday. Storms will generally be moving
slowly from south to north.

Friday through Sunday...Drier air will start to filter in from the
west, which will bring a decrease in thunderstorm activity,
especially across the western portion of the state. Minimum RH
values will drop back into the teens to the north and west of






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