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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171027
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
326 AM MST FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH PASSES OVER
ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE UTAH BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
WARMING UP AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CA/WESTERN NV THIS
MORNING WILL APPROACH THE STATE TODAY AND PASS OVER NORTHERN AZ TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SAT. INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO BREEZY SURFACE WINDS AGAIN TODAY. IN ADDITION...A RATHER
ROBUST BAND OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN AZ
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH IN
EASTERN AZ TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU REGION THIS AFTERNOON TO SPARK A LIGHT SHOWER. A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG THE
NORTHERN AZ BORDER WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY...THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
SLIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...WILL BE IN
STORE BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY REBOUND. A DRY AND WINDY
PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE NEXT WEEK AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS SW10-20G30KT...DIMINISHING AFT 02-03Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

FOR SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH WINDS
DECREASING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LESS
WIND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

EXTENDED FORECAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ110-111-113-114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF