Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252147
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
247 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS A PASSING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW MORNING IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
REGION...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE STATE TODAY HAS BROUGHT PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM CHINLE...TO
WINSLOW...TO PAYSON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE
SOUTHEAST EXITING THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT...WITH
REPORTS BETWEEN A LIGHT DUSTING TO A HALF OF AN INCH FOR LOCATIONS
AT OR ABOVE 5300 FEET. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW BY TOMORROW MORNING
IS POSSIBLE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. ON FRIDAY...LINGERING INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GENERALLY CONFINED TO HIGH TERRAIN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO DRY WEATHER...AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH PASSING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET ON SATURDAY MORNING.

MONDAY ONWARD...HIGH MODEL SPREAD EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED. IN
GENERAL...MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW NORTHERN ARIZONA COULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WEST
COAST TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE PRESENT UNCERTAINTY...I DID NOT
MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF A PAYSON-WINSLOW-PAGE LINE.
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MVFR
CEILINGS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT...DIMINISHING TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.