Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 220444
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
945 PM MST SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Look for breezy to windy conditions and below normal
temperatures through the coming week as a series of dry weather
disturbances brush northern Arizona.

&&
.DISCUSSION...Winds dropped below advisory criteria around 700 PM
MST this evening and the wind advisory was allowed to expire.
Forecast was updated for lower winds and to remove advisory. No
other changes needed this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /238 PM MST/...Strong and gusty south to southwest
winds will diminish following sunset today. Until then winds will
continue to gust from 40 to 50 mph across northern Arizona from the
Mogollon Rim northward. As a result, a Wind Advisory remains in
effect until 700 PM MST this evening.

Models indicate that over the coming week a series of shortwave
troughs will move across the western United States and the Great
Basin, brushing Arizona. The stronger pressure gradient produced
by this series of disturbances will deliver gusty afternoon
southwest winds, generally in the 15 to 25 mph range, through
Thursday or Friday. The cooler air mass associated with this
pattern will result in daytime high temperatures around 10 degrees
below normal. Conditions will remain dry through Wednesday before
a bit of additional moisture and upward motion associated with a
stronger disturbance produces a slight chance of showers toward Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
northern Arizona during the next 24 hours. Gusty SW winds will
gradually weaken to 10 to 20 knots tonight and then increase again
to 15-25 with gusts to 30kts 16-18Z. Winds will diminish again01Z-
03Z Monday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry/breezy winds will continue across Arizona this
afternoon through Sunday. The strongest winds will occur this
afternoon with near critical fire weather conditions possible across
the lower elevations of northeastern Arizona. Breezy conditions will
continue Sunday with critical fire weather conditions not expected.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry weather and below normal temperatures
will continue with gusty south/southwest winds each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...none.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/McCollum
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...TM


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


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