Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201024
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
324 AM MST Tue Jun 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Hot conditions will continue through the week.
Isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms with gusty winds
could develop this afternoon over the higher terrain, mainly from
Flagstaff eastward. The hottest days this week are expected
Today and Wednesday. Temperatures will begin to trend downward
Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Hot and dry conditions are expected for at least the next week as
a ridge of high pressure continues to build over the American
Southwest. Heat Advisories and Excessive heat warnings remain in
place through the bulk of the work week with slightly cooler but
still near critical temperature values expected through the
weekend and into early next week.

Some mid level moisture will remain in the area today...allowing
for thunderstorm and shower development in the late morning and
early afternoon hours over the higher terrain. The best chances
dry showers and thunderstorms looks to be over the White
Mountains. While these storms are not expected to produce
significant amounts of moisture, dry gusty winds from any shower
or storm that does develop could reach speeds of around 50 mph. Moisture
looks to dissipate through the rest of the week limiting chances
for Wednesday onward.

Model guidance continues to point to today and Wednesday as the
hottest days of the heat wave with most locations nearing all
time high temperatures over the next 48 hours. Thursday onward
temperatures look to trend cooler each subsequent day. Have left
heat advisories and warnings similar to previous iterations due
the continued similarity between model runs. There is some hint
of a monsoonal moisture plume moving into arizona early next week,
however this is far enough into the future that confidence is not
high that this solution will come to pass.



&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions are generally
expected for the next 24 hours. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA 18-01Z over the
higher terrain. Generally light winds...with gusty winds near any
storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms with little rainfall and
very strong wind gusts possible over the high terrain again today,
and to a lesser extent Wednesday. Temperatures will remain quite
hot, and generally low surface humidity.

Thursday through Saturday...The chances for thunderstorms are
expected to decrease through the end of the week. Daytime
temperatures slowly begin to decrease later this week as well.
Expect breezy southwest to west winds each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MST Thursday FOR AZZ004-007>017-039-040.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday FOR AZZ018-038.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Friday FOR AZZ005-006-037.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...Suk
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff



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