Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 142215

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
315 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A period of mainly dry weather and above normal
temperatures will continue through Thursday. Some light
precipitation is possible from the Mogollon Rim northward late
Tuesday into early Wednesday. A pattern change to cooler and
wetter weather will be possible by the end of the week.


.DISCUSSION...The first half of the week will be characterized by
periods of mid and upper level clouds along with continued above
normal temperatures. A weak shortwave will briefly push through
the ridge and cross northern Arizona late Tuesday into Wednesday.
This will bring a chance of light rain shower activity to the
region. Snow levels will generally stay between 7500-8000 feet
with this system. Across northeast Arizona snow levels could fall
below 7000 feet for a brief period of time as the core of mid
level cooler air passes overhead late Tuesday night and early
Wednesday. Dry weather returns behind this system later Wednesday
into Thursday as the ridge reestablishes itself over the area.

Latest model guidance continues to indicate a more potent trough
affecting northern Arizona Friday into Saturday. This would result
in gusty southwesterly winds Friday, quickly falling
temperatures/snow levels, and increasing precipitation chances.
While its still early to be confident on the details, the bottom
line is an increased chance for hazardous winter weather by late
week. Stay tuned over the coming days especially if you have
travel plans across northern Arizona later in the week.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Light winds and VFR conditions are
expected for the next 24 hours. Expect increasing mid-to-upper level
cloudiness tonight. Aviation discussion not updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Unseasonably strong high pressure will lead to warm
daytime temperatures, light winds, and dry conditions through
Monday. Winds will be generally light for most locations. A weak low
pressure trough will brush the state late Tuesday and Tuesday night
with a slight chance of light precipitation, though above normal
temperatures will persist.

Wednesday through Friday... Dry weather and continued above normal
temperatures are anticipated for late Wednesday through Thursday. A
cold trough may impact the fire district by Friday with gusty winds,
chances for showers, and a drop in temperatures.






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