Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 171604

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
904 AM MST Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will persist across Northern Arizona through
Friday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return to the
White Mountains Saturday, then gradually return across all of
northern Arizona Sunday through Wednesday.


.UPDATE...Morning GOES-16 satellite imagery shows mid-level clouds
slowly eroding over northeastern AZ. The latest model solutions
indicate these clouds will continue to erode through the afternoon
as drier air pushes into the region.

As a result, updated the sky cover forecast to better capture the
decreasing sky cover trend over the four corners region today.
Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are expected over northern Arizona
through the remainder of the day. The updated gridded and text
products have been sent.


.PREV DISCUSSION /455 AM MST/...Dry westerly flow aloft will
persist through the end of the week. Despite some cooling aloft,
the airmass is just too dry to support convection, especially
when coupled with our abnormally dry boundary layer.

Low pressure will take residence off the west coast over the
weekend and into early next week. With high pressure over Texas
and New Mexico, southerly flow will strengthen during this time
period. This may open the door for moisture to return, but a full
blown monsoonal circulation is not expected. In fact, it it
possible that the rest of the season may feature a battle between
southwest and southerly flow, with the pure monsoonal circulation
never really returning.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions through
the TAF period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will continue today and Friday.
Expect lower than usual humidity for this time of year, along with
light southwest winds and near normal temperatures.

Saturday through Monday...Limited moisture returning Saturday may
bring a slight chance of thunderstorms near the White Mountains.
Moisture is forecast to spread farther north and west by Sunday and
Monday with thunderstorm chances returning to most of northern






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