Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 012248
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
348 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DELAYED START TO CONVECTION TODAY, BUT ONCE THE
CAP WAS BROKEN, SEVERAL VERY POWERFUL STORMS DEVELOPED. GOLF BALL
SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PARKS, AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL WAS OBSERVED IN BELLEMONT AND FORT
VALLEY. SO FAR TODAY, THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
OCCURRED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD, WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURRED SOUTH OF THE
RIM LAST NIGHT. CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RELOCATE INTO THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND POSSIBLY YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WIND SHEAR DECREASES AS THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE STATE. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY, SO EXPECT SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STRONGER E/NE
STEERING FLOWS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL DECREASE, SO STORMS WILL
BE LESS LIKELY TO ROLL OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS
AND POPS IN THESE AREAS ARE LOWER. BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE MID LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO RE-POSITION SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR AREA RESULTING IN A FEW DAYS OF A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. STORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MTNS. THIS STEERING FLOW IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS SOUTH
OF THE RIM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY MOVING TO THE WEST. THE LARGEST
THREATS TO AVIATION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS TO 50 KTS. THE AREA MOST LIKELY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE FROM THE GRAND CANYON ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS SOUTH
INTO GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE AFT 06Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS THIS EVENING MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A TYPICAL MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH DAILY CHANCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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