Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 171641
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
941 AM MST SUN MAY 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST BREEZES. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STRONGER
WINDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN AS A WEAK STORM MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO
FORECAST UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /440 AM MST/...RISING HEIGHTS WILL USHER IN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST
BREEZES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS NOT AS COLD AS THE LAST FEW STORMS THAT HAVE AFFECTED OUR
AREA...SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED BELOW 8000-8500 FEET. AFTER SOME
RECOVERY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS STORM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE ON
MONDAY AND THE WEATHER SHOULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER SCT-BKN250. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL SET
UP ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. LOOK FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. ON MONDAY, AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH DAY WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/PETERSON
AVIATION...TM/MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS



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