Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 172222
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
320 PM MST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT WEEK WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
LOW WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GOES SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE DIVERGENT NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS WEAK LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY
AS INDICATED BY OUR DOPPLER RADAR HAS BEEN LIGHT WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS THAT DO NOT REACH THE GROUND.  A FEW SURFACE
OBSERVATION SITES MEASURED ISOLATED LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
0.01 TO 0.05 INCH RANGE.

OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ARIZONA REGION BRINGING PERIODS OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MILD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. MOST OF OUR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY DUE TO HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY.

THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN ERNEST THIS WEEK
WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS FOREST FOR NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL DIMINISH
CAUSING SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGE
AREAS.

LONG RANGE WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE ARIZONA REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES.

WE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THIS AFTERNOONS UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
ARIZONA WILL BRING PERIODS OF BKN-OVC CIGS 8-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. ISOLD -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. NUMEROUS
PRESCRIBED BURNS IN THE REGION WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE
SMOKE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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