Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241626
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
926 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING BEFORE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF THURSDAY. A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
JUST MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES FOR TODAY TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FURTHER WESTWARD IN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING AS MOISTURE
WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. ALL IN ALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES THIS MORNING  ACROSS
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES AS THE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL
BEGIN MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN TODAY AND DRIVE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES TO END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS DRY AND STABLE AIR WORK INTO THE STATE.
A COUPLE OF INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
APACHE COUNTY TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 3500 TO 4000
FEET NEAR THE KAIBAB PLATEAU TO AROUND 6000 FEET IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. ALL SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING A FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
LATE THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...POPS WERE RAISED FOR THIS WEEKEND. PROGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COLD AND BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN FRIDAY SETTING UP A VERY MOIST WSW FLOW INTO ARIZONA.
SHOULD THE PROGS VERIFY...WE WOULD SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM EARLY SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WE ANTICIPATE SNOW LEVELS FROM AROUND 5000 FEET
ALONG THE UTAH BORDER TO 6000-7000 FEET ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. STAY
TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT MVFR/IFR AND ISOLD LIFR IN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED FOG THROUGH 20Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE K0V7-KINW-KPAN LINE THROUGH 01Z. SHOWERS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY
AFTER 01Z WED. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/DL
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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