Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240327
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
827 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND.
STARTING MONDAY...A MOIST AND SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ARE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES TO THE
NORTH. LITTLE OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
FORECAST...AND THE CURRENT GRIDS/FORECAST LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES ANTICIPATED BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /310 PM MST/...
DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE RIM
WILL BECOME QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LOOKING LIKELY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME THAT THE WEAK UPPER LOW SEEN NEAR 31N/115W
WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW NEAR 20N/127W AND WILL THEN
CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW UNDER THE AMPLIFYING
WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS LOW WILL THEN TAP INTO A LARGE AREA OF
GREATER THAN ONE INCH PW AND A PLUME OF 50 TO 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS...THAT WILL MOVE NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
SLOWLY EJECTS IN RESPONSE TO MORE UPSTREAM ENERGY...THIS MOIST
AIRMASS WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF ARIZONA INTO TUESDAY.

THIS IS A VERY WARM AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN HIGH. ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE ANY SNOW. THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE...WILL ALLOW FOR
A SHARP DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. LONGER WAVE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS PATTERN MAY REPEAT ITSELF BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY N-NE 5-15KT
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ELSEWHERE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/PETERSON
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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