Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 211041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
340 AM MST Sun May 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditons for the remainder
of the weekend and into much of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Arizona will remain on the eastern side of a high
amplitude ridge through Monday or Tuesday of next week. A weak s/wv
trough will move down the eastern side of this ridge later today and
Monday, which could provide just enough cooling aloft to generate a
few high-based showers over higher terrain. Otherwise, we expect
seasonal temperatures and mostly clear skies as the northerly flow
in the middle and higher levels is mainly dry.

The ridge axis shifts over Arizona by late Tuesday and Wednesday.
This will bring very dry and warm conditions to our area through
Thursday. Northerly flow aloft returns late next week and into next
weekend, for a few degrees of cooling and continued dry conditions.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions and light
winds for the 24 hour forecast period. Isold high-based -shra
possible over the Kaibab Plateau late today and this evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect light winds, mainly dry conditions and
seasonably warm temperatures today and Monday. A weak s/wv may bring
isolated high-based showers to the Kaibab Plateau later today and
tonight, shifting to the White Mountains on Monday. Wetting rains
are not expected.

Tuesday through Thursday...Expect warm and dry conditions through
this period as a ridge of high pressure peaks over the district. The
ridge will slowly break down later Wednesday and Thursday, leading
to increased southwest winds.






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