Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 251038

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
338 AM MST Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A trough of low pressure will cross the state
today bringing slightly cooler temperatures and a chance of rain
showers mainly from Flagstaff northward. Fair weather is expected
Sunday, then another low pressure system will arrive Monday into


.DISCUSSION...A quick moving area of low pressure will bring a
chance of rain showers to northern Arizona this afternoon and
evening. The best chance for showers will be north of Interstate
40. Snow levels are expected to remain around 8000 feet.
Additionally, steepening lapse rates and lift associated with this
system may be enough to spark a few thunderstorms. Have included
a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly from Interstate 40
northward to cover this. The system will quickly shift east late
tonight with pleasant weather expected in its wake on Sunday.
High temperatures on Sunday will be near normal.

Active weather pattern continues next week with another system
impacting the area Monday and Tuesday. Models continue to
struggle with the exact strength and timing of this system, but
latest guidance suggest snow levels may fall below 7000 feet on
the backside of this system Tuesday morning. Later shifts will be
able to fine tune this portion of the forecast. A brief break in
the wetter weather appears likely mid next week, but models
indicate another system could drop south and impact northern
Arizona on Friday.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...A weather system passing through
northern AZ Saturday afternoon/evening will bring scattered SHRA
primarily north of Interstate 40. Local MVFR conditions will be
possible, with gusty and erratic surface winds in the vicinity of
the stronger showers. In addition, expect increased southwest winds
from 18Z Saturday to 02Z Sunday, with wind speeds from 10 to 20
knots and gust between 20 to 30 knots. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.






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