Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 161104

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
405 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A period of mainly dry weather and above normal
temperatures will continue through Thursday. A few sprinkles are
possible tonight through Wednesday, mainly north of the Mogollon
Rim. A much stronger storm will bring gusty winds and sharply colder
temperatures to the region heading into the weekend, along with a
chance of rain and snow showers.


.DISCUSSION...Quite a bit of high cloud cover and some middle cloud
cover can be expected today and tonight, due to a weak s/wv over the
Great Basin. This wave will move up and over the high amplitude
southwestern ridge, dropping slightly cooler mid-level air into
northern and central Arizona tonight and Wednesday. Moisture levels
are not very impressive with this wave and the amplitude of the
ridge will barely change, making precipitation chances come out on
the low side. The ridge recovers late Wednesday and Thursday, ahead
of a stronger trough due late Friday and Saturday.

The second trough will bring a noticeable increase in southwest
winds by Friday afternoon, with some gusts to 40 mph possible.

A cold front will sweep across the area late Friday night and into
Saturday, bringing a scattered rain and snow showers to much of the
area. Also, much colder temperatures and plummeting snow levels on
Saturday will bring a chance of snow to almost every elevation in
our CWA.

Models have slowed this trough down and backed off on the southern
extent a bit, but there should still be enough moisture and some
instability to produce travel impacts late Friday through Saturday.

The remainder of the forecast period looks to be on the dry side and
will remain cool as westerlies take up residence. Some rain and snow
possible again by mid-week, but confidence is low at this time.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions and light winds
generally under 10 kts will continue over the next 24 hrs. Expect
increasing mid/high clouds through this afternoon. Aft 00Z, 120-
140BKN-OVC and ISOLD -SHRA along/north of Mogollon Rim. Aviation
discussion not updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A weak low pressure system will bring increased
clouds today, with a slight chance of showers along and north of the
Mogollon Rim this evening and into early Wednesday. Wetting rain is
not likely. Winds will be generally light.

Thursday through Saturday...Mild conditions will continue on
Thursday. A colder low pressure system will bring much stronger
winds to the area on Friday, followed by a chance for showers and
much colder temperatures on Saturday. The snow level could drop to
3500 feet by Saturday afternoon.






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