Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171615
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE EXTENDING FROM FLAGSTAFF TO WINDOW ROCK. STARTING
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ARIZONA LEADING TO MUCH BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING SHOWED MORE MOISTURE THAN WAS
EXPECTED AND SLIGHTLY MORE THAN YESTERDAY MORNING (0.70 VS 0.67).
THE SATELLITE PWAT CHARTS ARE ALSO SHOWING A WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE MOISTURE. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /230 AM MST/...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED
OVER ARIZONA...HEADING EASTWARD. FOR TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN
MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE NET RESULT
WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM FLAGSTAFF TO WINDOW ROCK.

MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE AN INTERESTING AND CHALLENGING
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO. AT THE
SAME TIME...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. QUITE A VARIETY
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TIMING.
THERE IS EVEN THE CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF A SOUTHERLY TAP
INTO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GRADE MONSOON
ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED. THE DETAILS WILL COME INTO FOCUS AS TIME DRAWS
CLOSER BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANOTHER WET WEEK FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ARIZONA.

AVIATION...
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...ANOTHER ROUND OF MOSTLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AFTER
18Z...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE SOUTH OF A KFLG-KSOW LINE. REDUCED
VSBY IN TSRA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. STORM COVERAGE DECREASING AFTER 03Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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