Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 240414 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
914 PM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TODAY HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DRY WARMING TREND STARTING ON TUESDAY.

THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING
UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /301 PM MST/...UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL KEEP A COOL...BREEZY...AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE MAIN
LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST INTO COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE FASTER MOVING CALIFORNIA SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW. AREAS NORTH OF
I-40...AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE...WILL BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM A 0.25 - 0.50 INCHES.

THE LOW MOVES EAST MEMORIAL DAY WITH A COOL AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW TAKING SHAPE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS TO KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHOUT WARMING IN EARNEST UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP CLOSE
TO AND POSSIBLY ABOVE AVERAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
TO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN
MVFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM UTAH INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40.
WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/MCS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


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