Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 132139
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA. LIGHTER WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER
WILL RETURN FROM LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS. YET ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WAS MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
ARIZONA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS EXTENDING FROM THE GRAND
CANYON EASTWARD TO WINDOW ROCK. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO
50 MPH POSSIBLE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR DETAILS CONCERNING VARIOUS ADVISORY AND
WARNING PRODUCTS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY.

OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH. STRONG
SINKING MOTION WILL HELP TO BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. EXPECT LOCAL NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO
PEAKS. WINDS LOOK TO DECREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH
WEAKENS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHING THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER MIDWEEK AND THIS STILL COULD END UP IN A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON WEDNESDAY. IN ANY
CASE...EXPECT THE USUAL SPRING BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON...THE
STRONGEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK LOW
MEANDERING ACROSS ARIZONA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE END OF THE WEEK LOW
WILL HEAD TOWARD ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CONTAIN A BIT OF
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TOWARD THE WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WIND SPEEDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH TO
THE 10 TO 15 KTS RANGE. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS ON
MONDAY MORNING AROUND 13Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE POOR FOR MOST AREAS AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLIES OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS
BECOMING BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ104>107-109>115-139-140.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING AZ ZONES
004>007-009>014>016-039-040.

BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING AZ ZONES
004>007-009>014>016-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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