Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 012317
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
417 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN QUITE SUBDUED
COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY DUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY LESS INSTABILITY.
EVEN SO...RAIN RATES WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED CELLS UP NORTH OVER
THE SLICK ROCK HAVE BEEN HIGH ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH DURATION TO
WARRANT FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. WITH LITTLE EXTERNAL FORCING OTHER
THAN DAYTIME HEATING..EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE EASTERN
RIM/WHITES/CHUSKAS...WITH LOWER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA IS FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER 01Z. IFR CONDITIONS AND ERRATIC GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TAYLOR
AVIATION...RICKEY


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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