Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 210354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
854 PM MST Fri Oct 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect cooler daytime temperatures Saturday before
above average temperatures return again for Monday through at
least Wednesday.


Winds have weakened considerably this evening and should continue
to do so overnight. The passing front will initiate a slight
chance of showers overnight across far northern AZ, and in fact, a
few light showers have already developed near the Kaibab Plateau
this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION /357 PM MST/...Breezy to windy conditions
continue across northern Arizona this afternoon as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. The front will move into western
Arizona this evening, through a Black Canyon City-Flagstaff-Page
line around midnight, and through Apache County by daylight

Winds behind the front shift northerly late tonight into Saturday.
The northerly winds will usher in a cooler airmass with
temperatures falling 10-15 degrees Saturday. This cool down will
be short-lived however.

The remainder of the forecast is quite benign across the region
with strong high pressure building over the southwest US. This
will bring a return to above normal temperatures, lighter winds,
and no chance of precipitation through much of next week.

Another strong dry cold front may move across northern Arizona
late next week with windy conditions and another sharp drop in
temperatures. Stay tuned.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the
next 24 hrs. Some cumulus development possible over higher
terrain with bases in the 4-6kft AGL range through 12Z, along
with a slight chance of showers near the AZ/Utah border. Southwest
wind decreasing overnight and eventually shifting to N-NE Saturday
morning. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will decrease overnight. Cooler and drier
conditions will arrive Saturday, with winds shifting to north-
northwest and decreasing. Warmer but continued dry Sunday with
northeast winds in most areas.

Monday through Wednesday...Building high pressure will lead to well
above normal temperatures and low RH values. Winds are expected to
be from the north to northeast through Tuesday, then likely
shifting to the west or southwest Wednesday.






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