Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 111717

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1015 AM MST Fri Aug 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect typical monsoon weather conditions through the
weekend. Lightning and local areas of heavy rain are the main storm
threats. Expect a decreasing trend in storms beginning Monday, with
mostly dry weather from Tuesday onward.


.DISCUSSION...More debris cloud across eastern and some of central
Arizona this morning, due to MCS activity last night. Fairly deep
moisture is in place across the state and our inverted trough has
taken up residence in southern Arizona, heading north later today
and tonight. The western and central portions of the CWA are most
likely to see intense convection today, while the eastern sections
will be partially suppressed. Activity is once again likely to
persist a bit longer than normal overnight as the inverted trough
moves through. Trends are covered well, no updates needed.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Scattered light showers and
isolated thunderstorms over Navajo and Apache Counties will continue
through the morning hours with mainly VFR conditions prevailing. The
next round of scattered thunderstorms are expected to start by early
afternoon and continue into the evening. The strongest storms will
create heavy rain and localized MVFR/IFR conditions. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A moist monsoon air mass will bring an elevated
chance of showers and thunderstorms today and Saturday, with
temperatures several degrees below normal.

Sunday through Tuesday...Another round of scattered afternoon and
evening thunderstorms is expected Sunday, then a drier air mass is
forecast to move back into the region Monday and Tuesday with
decreasing storm chances. Temperatures will be near to slightly
below normal.






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