Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261656
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
956 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF TODAY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. LIGHT FLURRIES WILL
ALSO PERSIST NORTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF...EVEN INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SLIGHT
WARMING ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AFTER A WINDY DAY MONDAY...A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE STATE...REMAINS
IN GOOD SHAPE. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...
A VERY COLD UPPER LOW WAS NOTED ON IR IMAGERY ABOUT 80 MILES NE OF
KFLG THIS MORNING. TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW...DYNAMIC FORCING
STILL EXISTS AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE SEEN NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER. THIS AREA WILL SEE SOME ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WITH A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS NEAR THE
CHUSKAS AS THE COLD POCKET AT 500MB PASSES THROUGH THIS REGION
LATER TODAY. FROM KFLG NORTH AND NORTHWEST...VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS PERSIST IN UPSLOPE AREAS DUE TO NW FLOW. IT HAS BEEN
SNOWING HERE AT THE OFFICE FOR THE LAST 2 HOURS...ALTHOUGH WE CAN
SEE THE STARS NEARLY THE ENTIRE TIME.

MODELS INDICATE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT THESE AREAS
OF LIGHT UPSLOPE FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...TONIGHT...AND
EVEN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN UTAH AND INTO ARIZONA LATER TONIGHT...REINFORCING
THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF KFLG...DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES AND MUCH
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF
ANY CLOUDS OR QPF.

DRIER AIR AND RISING HGHTS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AHEAD
OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DUE SOMETIME TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE
TIMING AND WESTWARD RETROGRESSION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING. STAY TUNED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS THE FIRST SERIOUS WINTER STORM THREAT OF THIS WINTER MAY
BE ON THE NEAR HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/PETERSON
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.