Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 232245

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
343 PM MST Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A cold low pressure area will continue to move
eastward across Arizona this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will
decreases from west to east this evening and more rapidly after
dark. Dry conditions are expected Friday. Additional low pressure
systems will move across the Southwest region Saturday and again
next week.


.Discussion...An area of low pressure continues to move across
northern Arizona this afternoon. Scattered rain and snow showers
with isolated thunderstorms (some with small hail) will continue
this afternoon and into this evening. This activity will decrease
from west to east as the low moves east and it gets dark (loss of
surface heating). Much of the precipitation should end by around

The current system will move east of the state tonight with brief
ridging and much warmer temperatures on Friday. Then next trough
will affect the area Saturday into Saturday night, bringing a chance
of precipitation mainly to areas north of a Prescott-Window Rock
from Flagstaff northward. At this point, amounts appear light with
snow levels 7000 to 8000 feet.

Fair and warmer conditions return Sunday into early Monday, then
more unsettled weather looks to return to the region with cooler and
showery weather possible starting late Monday.  The EC moves this
low into New Mexico by early Wednesday morning. The GFS is showing a
much stronger system that cuts off and then moves into New Mexico by
Thursday morning. Either solution (or a combination of the two) will
bring a period of cold, wet, and windy weather to northern Arizona.
Stay tuned as details become more certain.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Scattered to numerous
SHRA/SHSN with isolated thunder persisting through 03-05Z this
evening before dissipating. Expect MVFR conditions with heavier
showers producing IFR. Snow levels will remain 6000-6500 ft MSL.
Skies clearing W to E aft 05Z, with primarily VFR returning aft 06Z.
There is potential for fog development, primarily along the Mogollon
Rim and the KFLG terminal late tonight through early Fri morning.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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