Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 131630
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
415 AM MST SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA. FAIR WEATHER
RETURNS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT STRONG WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ARE FORECAST. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES AND A BLOWING DUST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST AZ...WITH VSBYS
DROPPING BLOW ONE MILE. SEE PHXNPWFGZ FOR DETAILS.

AT 3 AM THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ALONG A LINE FROM GRAND JUNCTION
TO MILFORD TO BISHOP CA. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS SRN UTAH AND THESE SHOULD
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM FREDONIA TO
FLAGSTAFF TO THE WHITE MTNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING
ALOT OF ACCUMULATION...IN FACT PROGS SHOW IN GETTING EXTREMELY DRY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS GUSTS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
EVENING...WITH FAST NORTHWEST THEN NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE WIND AND BLOWING DUST ADVISORY ENDS AT 8 PM
MST...GUSTY SFC WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND.

ON MONDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COLORADO PLATEAU
AND STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS
LOOK TO DECREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THESE DAYS. PROGS
ARE NOT AS STRONG WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM VS YESTERDAY AND ONLY
EXPECT A BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS BRING ANOTHER WEAK CLOSED LOW FROM OFF THE
PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT SW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WE HAVE ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFT 18Z...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA AND A FEW -TSRA PSBL NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS BCMG W20-30G45-50KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF BLDU PSBL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND INTO ARIZONA TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH MINIMUM VALUES OF 8 TO
15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY MID EVENING.

FOR MONDAY...WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND GUSTY
EARLY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS
BECOMING BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ104>107-109>115-139-140.

WIND ADVISORY TODAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 8 PM MST AZ ZONES
004>007-009>014>016-039-040.

BLOWING DUST ADVISORY TODAY 11 AM UNTIL 8 PM MST AZ ZONES
004>007-009>014>016-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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