Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 250407

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
907 PM MST TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect breezy to windy conditions and below normal
temperatures through the week. A weak low pressure system will
bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area by
Wednesday and Thursday. Warmer temperatures in store for next week
as a high pressure ridge moves into the Southwest region.


.DISCUSSION...Two weak low pressure systems will move through
Arizona late Wednesday and Thursday. Strong southwesterly winds
will decrease overnight and become breezy on Wednesday. Westerly
winds are forecast for Thursday and Friday as the low centers move
through the state.

Expect below normal temperatures to continue through the week
with chances for a few high based showers and thunderstorms each
day, along with the possibility of erratic gusty winds near any
shower activity. The highest chances for convection, around 20
percent, will be over mountain regions of northern Arizona on
Thursday and Friday afternoon. The afternoon forecast grids look
good, no updates.


.PREV DISCUSSION /435 PM MST/...Some deep mixing developed ahead
of an unseasonably cold low pressure area approaching the SOCAL
coastline. Many areas from Flagstaff eastward had dew points
plummet into the lower teens this afternoon, with widespread wind
gusts from 30 to 40 mph or higher. A Red Flag Warning was issued
this afternoon for the eastern zones.

The aforementioned low will slowly move onshore through early
Thursday. Gusty winds will continue again tomorrow and will likely
not decouple in many areas tonight. Slightly colder temperatures
and decreased wind speeds tomorrow should keep most areas below
wind and critical fire weather thresholds. A slight chances of
showers developing in the cold core by Wednesday and Thursday.

This low will move away from the area by Friday, but troughing
will persist off the west coast through the weekend. Expect
warming, but breezy conditions will remain. An actual ridge may
develop by the middle of next week, just in time for June.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Mainly VFR conditions will
prevail over northern Arizona through the forecast period. There
is a slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon from KGCN
northward. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will gradually decrease overnight. On
Wednesday, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms for
northwest Coconino County, spreading to most higher elevation
areas Thursday. Breezy winds persist Wednesday, decreasing for

Friday through Sunday...The chance of higher elevation showers and
thunderstorms lingers on Friday, then drier conditions arrive for
the weekend. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected at
this time.






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