Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 091140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
440 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will lead to above normal daytime
temperatures along with relatively light winds and very dry
conditions through at least the next week.


.DISCUSSION...This morning`s upper-air analysis reveals a deep
long wave trough over the eastern United States, with a high
amplitude ridge over the western United States. This blocking
pattern is forecast to remain in place through at least the end
of the work week leading an extended period of dry weather and
above normal daytime temperatures.

Longer-term model guidance suggests this blocking pattern might
break down next weekend, with the potential passage of a dry cold
front. With that said, this front would likely lead to windier
and cooler conditions, but little chance for meaningful


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions through the
forecast period with clear skies. Localized NE winds 10-15 kts
along/south of the Mogollon Rim, less than 10 kts elsewhere.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A very dry northeasterly flow aloft will continue
this weekend. High pressure building over the region will bring
lighter winds and above normal temperatures.

Monday through Wednesday...Very dry north to northeast flow will
continue. Daytime temperatures will be close to 10 degrees above
normal, with light winds.






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