Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 172218

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
318 PM MST Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will continue across northern Arizona
through Friday. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms over
the White Mountains Saturday afternoon, then a chance of
thunderstorms over all of northern Arizona each afternoon next week.


.DISCUSSION...Dry southwesterly flow will continue over Arizona
through Friday in response to a broad area of low pressure over
southern California. Fair weather is expected over northern Arizona
as a result.

By Saturday, a slug of moisture currently over Mexico will slowly
advect northward into southern Arizona in response to high pressure
re-establishing itself over Texas. This will result in a slight
chance for thunderstorms over the White Mountains Saturday afternoon.

High pressure over Texas and low pressure over the western
California coast will open Arizona up to deep moisture Sunday. This
will lead to increased chances for afternoon thunderstorms across
northern Arizona.

Daily afternoon thunderstorm chances will continue through next
Wednesday as there does not appear to be a significant break in the
aforementioned upper pattern.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions through
the TAF period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will continue through Friday.
Expect lower than usual humidity for this time of year, along with
light southwest winds and near normal temperatures. Limited
moisture returning Saturday may bring a slight chance of
thunderstorms near the White Mountains.

Sunday through Tuesday...Moisture is forecast to spread farther
north and west with daily afternoon thunderstorm chances developing
over northern Arizona each day.






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