Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201212
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
512 AM MST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE AREA FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MOST RECENT UPPER LOW WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING.
EXPANSIVE HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY...WITH HGHTS FALLING AS SOON AS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

ON FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FILLING AS
IT MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA...BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH DYNAMICS
AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FROM THE I-40 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD.

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...BUT HGHTS
WILL BE RISING WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING CIRRUS THROUGH 06Z THU
FOLLOWED BY SCT-BKN CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO 15KFT MSL. BTWN 17Z-
02Z SFC WINDS S-SW10-20KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HUMIDITY COULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH FOR
CONDITIONS TO APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM FLAGSTAFF
NORTHWESTWARD. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL


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