Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 272231
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
308 PM MST WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WET AND COOL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...AND EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...TO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA CAUSING CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN AND
SNOW...AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO
AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW, AS WELL AS A SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, TO THE REGION.

THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND IS EXPECTED TO
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RADAR INDICATES
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY BEGUN IN FAR NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD, WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING IN FAR
WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS COCONINO
AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS MAY DIP DOWN TO 7000 FEET EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A COUPLE TENTHS OF QUICKLY MELTING SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE FLAGSTAFF AREA.

ON THURSDAY, STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS, SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SNOW LEVELS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS AND NORTH RIM OF
THE GRAND CANYON WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WINDIEST LOCATIONS WILL BE FROM THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY, BEFORE THE
FIRST WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A
SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER
THE WEEKEND CAUSING CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL 06Z WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF A
KAYENTA TO FLAGSTAFF LINE. AFTER 06Z...SHOWERS INCREASING AND
SPREADING EAST WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 7000-8000 FEET MSL BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-20 KTS RANGE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL USHER IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN LOOKS TO BE FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF AND
PRESCOTT NORTHWESTWARD.

.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY, LINGERING INTO MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUED COOL WEATHER. A DECENT
SHOT AT WETTING RAINS AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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