Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240337
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
837 PM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS.
AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. COLD
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT IS BREEZY AND COLD OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS STILL GUSTING 20-30 MPH ON THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH
DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. ONLY A
FEW MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /340 PM/...TEMPERATURES ARE 10-20 DEGREES COLDER
THIS AFTERNOON THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD START TO DECREASE AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE COLDER
THAN RECENT DAYS. TODAY`S COLD AND WINDY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AS A FAST MOVING RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WEST TOMORROW...AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD TROUGH DUE CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL TAKE A
MORE SOUTHERLY PATH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. THIS IS A DRY TRAJECTORY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS STARTING IN NW ARIZONA
EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING...SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. MODELS ARE HOWEVER HINTING AT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
(1-2") ACROSS THE KAIBAB PLATEAU DURING THE MORNING...THEN THE WHITE
MTNS REGION CHRISTMAS NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE ONE
OF THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS SEASON AND WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE COLD AIR
WILL LINGER FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SECONDARY IMPULSES MOVE
INTO THE TROUGH POSITION. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THIS LOOKS INSIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. MODELS
INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...RANGING
FROM DRY AND MILDER NW FLOW TO VERY COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AND MORE
FLURRIES. FOR NOW...BROUGHT TEMPS BACK UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH VERY
LOW POPS MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOCAL WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....BAK/JJ
AVIATION...BAK/MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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