Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 102254

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
354 PM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonably warm weather will continue through the
weekend and into next week. A weak low pressure system to our
north will bring an increase in clouds and a slight chance of rain
showers to the area on Sunday. Otherwise, expect dry conditions.


A few light showers will creep into the area through the rest of
the weekend. No significant accumulation is anticipated from
these showers as the bulk of the moisture associated with the low
pressure system will pass to the north. Most locations are
expected to see increasing mid and high level clouds with only a
slight chance of any measurable precipitation mainly over the
higher terrain near the Utah border. Due to the warm temperatures
at most locations the bulk of the precipitation is expected to
fall as rain.

Into next week, near seasonal temperatures and dry conditions will
continue through the bulk of the week, however models are
beginning to come into agreement over a trough of low pressure
that will strengthen over the Pacific Coast and and eject
shortwave energy that looks to impact the area late into next week
and early next week. While some of the heavier expected
precipitation from these models solutions do not look to impact
the area until after next weekend, the change back toward an more
active pattern beginning late next week and continuing through
the remainder of the operational model cycles is worth keeping a
close eye on as additional model runs hopefully move towards a
consensus concerning timing and locations of the shortwave troughs
moving around the large scale wave.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z forecast...Expect VFR conditions through 03Z
Sunday. After 03Z Sunday, enough low level moisture may allow low
clouds and slight chances for light showers to form, with MVFR
conditions possible over high terrain airfields through the day
Sunday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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