Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201048
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 AM MST SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WIND. FAIR AND WARM
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS MAY RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED THE REGION SATURDAY HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OTHERWISE MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS A FAST
MOVING RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ARIZONA. ON WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL...WITH BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING IN EASTERN
ARIZONA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE LOW. STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCT-BKN CUMULUS AT 14KFT MSL WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z
WITH ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH BRIEF GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVELY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIER AND WARMER TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AREA-WIDE...BUT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS. DRY
AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH LATE TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR AZ FIRE ZONES 105>110-112>114-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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