Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 250938

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
238 AM MST Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect fair but breezy conditions tonight. Windy and
cooler conditions are forecast across northern Arizona from
Thursday through Friday. Lighter winds are a warming trend are in
the cards for the weekend as high pressure builds in from the


.DISCUSSION...Warm, dry, and windy conditions will develop today
as a tightening pressure gradient develops over Northern Arizona.
This is due to a low pressure trough moving across the Northern
Rockies. This will cause an increase in winds over the region with
the strongest winds occurring during peak mixing between 11 am
and 8 pm today when momentum transport will be at its highest

Due to these gusty winds and low RH values a wind advisory has
and a red flag warning remain in effect for this time period.

As the ridge to the southeast and the low pressure trough to the
distant north move off to the east, the pressure gradient will
weaken as will winds aloft. A shortwave trough will move through
the Great Basin Friday, but chances for precipitation over
Northern Arizona appears to be minimal with the best chances along
the Utah Arizona border Saturday afternoon.

A large scale ridge across the Pacific Coast will slowly move
inland and is expected to dominate the weather scene through the
first half of next week. Some weak instability due to a shortwave
along the leading edge of the ridge could create showers across
the higher terrain Tuesday through Thursday especially in the
afternoon hours. with warm dry conditions as this ridge builds
into the region. Highs should be near seasonal averages through
the bulk of next week.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions for the next 24
hours. Surface winds til 16z Thu S-SW 5-15kt. Aft 16Z Thu SW 15-30KT
gusts 30-45KT, fastest winds along and north of the Mogollon Rim.
Winds will decrease again after 02-03Z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A dry and warm weather pattern will continue
today. West-southwest winds increase this morning with areas of
critical fire weather conditions between 11 AM and 8 PM.  Windy
coniditons will continue on Friday with additional cooling. Critical
conditions will be possible again Friday east of a Payson-Flagstaff-
Page line.

Saturday through Monday...Warmer condtions are in store for the the
Memorial Day Weekend with less wind.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
evening FOR AZZ104>107-109>117-139-140.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening
FOR AZZ004>007-009>017-039-040.




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