Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 211708

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1008 AM MST Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a cooling trend with windy conditions through
Friday. Cool conditions will persist over the weekend, although
not as windy. Expect freezing temperatures for much of the high
country Saturday and Sunday mornings.


Wind advisory looks on track today. No major updates anticipated
this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /445 AM MST/...A deep, early season trough will
enter the northern Great Basin today. This trough will slowly
drop south over the next few days, closing off for awhile over
southern Utah Saturday and Sunday, before moving east Monday. A
longer wave trough will remain over the west through much of next

A cold front associated with this trough will move across northern
Arizona on Friday. Winds ahead of this front will peak today and
a Wind Advisory is out for much of the area. Winds will continue
to be gusty on Friday, but will decrease from west to east through
the day as colder air filters into the state. Moisture is very
limited with this trough, a few light showers may develop along
the front Friday and out again east Saturday, measurable rainfall
will be difficult to find.

Temperatures will fall to 10-15 degrees below normal Friday and
into the weekend. More importantly, low temperatures Saturday
and Sunday morning will drop below freezing in many areas of the
high country.

Slowly moderating conditons are expected next week. A chance of
showers may develop later next week as another low drops into
the trough position. This solution is not supported by all the
models, so we will hold off on introducing POPs at this time.


.AVIATION...For the 18z package...Expect VFR conditions for the
next 24 hours. Look for south to southwest winds at 20-30 kts
with gusts from 30-40 kts. Winds will decrease after 03Z, but will
likely remain elevated through the overnight hours. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Strong southwest winds will develop across
northern Arizona today. On Friday, a mainly dry, cold front will
move across the area causing breezy conditions and just a slight
chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday through Monday...A slight chance for thunderstorms
continues over the weekend. Otherwise, look for lighter winds
and well below normal temperatures.


this evening FOR AZZ004>017-039-040.




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