Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

FXUS65 KFGZ 251153

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
453 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...For today, expect dry conditions and another round of
below normal temperatures. A passing weather system will bring
increasing southwest winds to the area on Monday, followed by good
chances for rain and snow from Tuesday into Wednesday. Dry
weather returns to all of northern Arizona on Thursday.


.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough is
bringing cloudy skies, and likely some light snow, to northeast
Arizona. This shortwave will continue to move east, exiting the
area after 5 am.

For today, expect another round of below normal daytime
temperatures - around 10 degrees below normal for late February.
Otherwise, dry weather is forecast along with light north to
northwest breezes.

On Monday, tightening surface pressure gradients will lead to
increasing southwest winds as the next low pressure system dives
down the West Coast. By Tuesday morning, the mid-level low center
is forecast to be near San Diego. This low, will move across
southern Arizona Tuesday through Wednesday morning while drawing
moisture into the area from the south. As a result, expect good
chances for rain and snow. The best chances are forecast along
and south of the Mogollon Rim. Clearing is expected to occur from
west to east on Wednesday, with chance for snow holding on the
longest in the vicinity of the White Mountains.

At this point, it looks like accumulating snow will be above the
4500-5000 foot level. In general, the current forecast calls for
1 to 6 inches of snow along and south of the Mogollon Rim, with 1
to 3 inches of snow north of the Mogollon Rim.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Primarily VFR for the next 24
hours. Ceilings FEW050 SCT100 remain north and east of the line
from KGCN to KINW. For Sunday, mostly clear skies with winds
variable around 5 to 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER... A return to calmer weather is expected for Sunday.
As the next winter weather system approaches, southwest winds will
increase Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...A cold front will move across the area
bringing gusty southwest winds along with widespread rain and snow
showers Tuesday through early Wednesday. Behind this system, dry and
calm weather will return Thursday.






For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.