Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291628
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
928 AM MST FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL WARMING  TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE UTAH BORDER TODAY AND THEN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
ON SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND COOLER WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS CAUSING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND VIRGA ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHERN COCONINO AND NAVAJO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, MADE A MINOR
UPDATE IN THE SHORT TERM TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND GREATER
CLOUD COVER THERE. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /410 AM MST/...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO PULL EAST  OF NO. AZ ON FRIDAY...SOME INSTABILITY AND
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE  WILL HELP SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED AFTER
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH  ALONG THE UTAH BORDER AND OVER TO THE
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS. A GRADUAL  WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE  BUILDS IN. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY  FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY...THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY THRU MONDAY.

TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL ENTER THE WESTERN STATES. FOR NORTHERN AZ...DRY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH WINDY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THIS IS DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
KGCN-KRQE LINE THROUGH 03Z SAT. VARIABLE WIND GUSTS TO 35KT POSSIBLE
FROM CONVECTIVE CELLS OTHERWISE SFC WINDS VARIABLE TO 10KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM TUSAYAN TO WINDOW ROCK. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF  AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF APACHE COUNTY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/TC
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.