Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 241149

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
450 AM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and dry conditions will continue through Saturday.
An unsettled pattern arrives late in the weekend and into early next
week, with increasing chances for rain and snow showers.


.DISCUSSION...Cold and dry westerly flow aloft will continue
through Saturday. The airmass will actually stabilize a bit today
and Saturday as a s/wv ridge moves through the area, bringing mostly
clear skies. By Sunday, a pair of s/wvs will move through the Great
Basin, bringing unsettled weather to our area. The first wave moves
through Sunday, with limited moisture and dry antecedent conditons.
The second wave has accelerated a bit and is no longer in phase with
a sub-tropical moisture plume in the central and eastern Pacific.
Model trends have been to dry out the Monday and Tuesday time frame.
There are still a few ensemble members that are not on board with
this solution yet, so we have not backed off completely.

Bottom line, cold conditons continue for several days, with
increasing chances for rain and snow showers Sunday through Tuesday.
We are not expecting significant or widespread impacts at this time.

High pressure builds into the region by the middle and end of next
week for dry conditions and a warming trend.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hours. SFc winds Westerly 10-20 knots btwn 17z Fri-02z
Sat, otherwise light. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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