Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291623
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 AM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDY
AND COLDER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO FORECAST UPDATES NEEDED THIS
MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(330 AM MST)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TODAY AND
THURSDAY. A WARMER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER ARIZONA DELIVERING
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
INSIST THAT A VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THERE IS REALLY NO REASON TO DOUBT THIS
SOLUTION BASED ON CURRENT STRONG JET STREAM ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. FOR FRIDAY...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS A
RESULT, LOOK FOR MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE TRICK-OR-TREATERS
FRIDAY EVENING. BY EARLY SATURDAY AREAS DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES
SUCH AS DONEY PARK COULD EXPERIENCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES, WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. DECENT DYNAMICS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL MOVE
IN ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER ALOFT
WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. STILL GENERALLY LOOKING AT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO
NEAR 7000 FEET BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROFILES. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MAY BE THE COOLEST OF THIS
FALL SEASON WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUING UNDER
WEAK UPWARD MOTION.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS NOW SHOWING A WEAK LOW SPINNING UP OVER
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. AT THIS TIME
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL AND DRY BUT WE WILL BE KEEPING
AND EYE ON THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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