Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231035
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
335 AM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SITUATION WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS STAYING WELL EAST OF FLAGSTAFF...NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
ADVISORY LEVELS SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LESS WIND IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE S/WV RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND
PRODUCTS WILL BE TOUGH TO AVOID. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD LATE
SEASON LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS TRENDING FARTHER AND FARTHER
SOUTHWEST WHICH EACH MODEL RUN. CURRENT MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS STORM...INCLUDING THE NEW TRENDS...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT. 500MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -27C WILL MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 6000 FEET.
MODEL QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE RIM AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WE HAVE RAISED POPS AND INTRODUCED SOME SNOWFALL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY. THE SHEAR AND ABNORMALLY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS STORM WILL ALSO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH
AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTION. RECORD SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FOR FLAGSTAFF FOR APRIL 26TH HAVE HAD SEVERAL OCCURRENCES
ABOVE 5 INCHES...WITH THE RECORD AT 8.5 INCHES. IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE A RECORD SNOWFALL EVENT AT THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT HIGHWAY TRAVEL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES IN THE COMING DAYS FOR YOUR WEEKEND FORECAST.

THE SYSTEM EJECT FAIRLY RAPIDLY SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING RETURNING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO 10-20G30KTS FROM 18Z-02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA
WITH INCREASING WINDS ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME
LIKELY FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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