Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 271036

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
336 AM MST Thu Oct 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry weather under high pressure through
Thursday. Max temps tomorrow will be from 10 to 15 degrees above
normal. A slight chance of showers will return Friday and into the
weekend, mainly from Flagstaff northwestward.


Unseasonable warm and dry weather will peak today across the area
as a large scale ridge axis moves over the four corners Thursday.
Expected temperatures to climb well above seasonal averages for
this time of year with the highest temperatures likely to occur
today across the region. The ridge will slowly move eastward with
its axis expected to be over the panhandle of Texas around midday
Friday. This will allow for shortwave energy to move in off the
California coast across Nevada and into Utah by late Friday. Most
of the moisture looks to miss Northern Arizona, although the
Kaibab plateau could see some isolated showers and breezy winds
with this shortwave passage.

By early Monday, another shortwave will move across Northern
California, Nevada, and Utah in a similar track. Most of the
energy will again be too far north to warrant any significant
chance of showers over Northern Arizona.

As more time progresses the ridge that has been sheltering
Arizona from the bulk of these systems moves further east, and by
Wednesday of next week with the ridge axis over West Florida, a
closed low looks to impact Arizona in the latest model forecasts.
Due to the significant ramp up from model forecasts 24 hours
previous, confidence is rather low. However if this solution
remains in subsequent runs, a rapid increase in chances for
precipitation will become necessary to reflect the increasing

This system is definitely at the limit of the models with
significant deviations on the track and timing of this system as
it impacts the Grand Canyon State. Models continue to diverge
beyond wednesday morning and a have leaned closer to climatology
for the end of the extend forecast. at this point due to the week
signal this far into the model solution.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z forecast...Expect VFR conditions for the
next 24 hours with increasing high clouds. Light sfc winds through
16z becoming S-SE10-20kt through 01Z...becoming light. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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