Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 042301
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
401 PM MST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY. ..WHILE THE
EASTERN ZONES REMAIN ACTIVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE SEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING AROUND HEBER-
OVERGAARD...SHOW LOW...AND SNOWFLAKE...WITH STEADILY DECREASING COVERAGE
TO THE WEST AND NORTH. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN RIM/WHITES MAY LAST WELL
INTO THE EVENING.

MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY EARLIER RATHER THAN
LATER..ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE NEARLY EVERYWHERE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...WITH STORMS PERHAPS LIMITED TO EASTERN ARIZONA FROM
ABOUT MID-WEEK ON.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A KFLG-
KPAN LINE WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN
AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. STORM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL FAVOR CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN
ARIZONA. EXPECT CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS RESULTING IN A MARKED DOWNTURN IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE WITH
DECREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...AT
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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