Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 251059

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
400 AM MST Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...After another hot day today, a slow and steady cooling
trend will develop for much of next week. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be highest today along the Mogollon Rim and the
White Mountains. Drier westerly flow will push storm chances to the
east by Monday, with dry conditons across all the area after Tuesday.


.DISCUSSION...Mid-level moisture began to increase across the area
on Saturday, aided by a weak deformation area extending into the
Great Basin. This was followed by a decent push of lower level
moisture overnight, due to a collapsed MCS over El Paso. These
events will lead to higher moisture values across the central and
eastern portions of the CWA today and POPS have been increased

The strong ridge overhead will persist one more day today, but will
then begin to decay as westerlies develop across the northern two
thirds of the nation for much of next week.

This westerly flow will bring breezy and progressively drier
conditons to our area next week, with temperatures returning to
normal levels. Any chances for precipitation after today will be
pushed to White Mountains by Monday and Tuesday, with nearly zero
chances for the remainder of the week.


.AVIATION...For the 12z package...Expect primarily VFR conditions
for the 24-hour period, though smoke from area wildfires may bring
MVFR/IFR visibilities. Scattered mainly high based thunderstorms
will develop over the Mogollon Rim this afternoon, storms capable of
wind gusts to 45kt. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Mid level moisture has increased over areas south of
the Mogollon Rim in the last 24 hours. This will allow scattered
high based thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, primarily along
the Mogollon Rim. Forecast soundings show a strong downdraft
potential with any storms. Max temps are on a slight cooling trend.
On Monday, westerly flow aloft to push the threat for high based
thunderstorms to Apache and southern Navajo counties.

Tuesday through Thursday...West southwest flow aloft will bring a
much drier airmass to northern Arizona. Gusty southwest winds should
return during the afternoons and critical fire conditions are
possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances will remain
confined to the White Mountains Tuesday and Wednesday, elsewhere no
storms are forecast.



Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Today FOR AZZ005-006-037.




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