Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271050
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 AM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY...
THEN GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER FAR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND THE REGION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER
AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY...STRONGER RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH ONE FINAL WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. THE COULD BRING SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
OVER ARIZONA.  EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (FOR THE FIRST TIME
SINCE EARLY MAY!)...AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER AS THIS
AREA COULD BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. MODELS
ALSO INDICATING SOME INCREASING WIND MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND GRAND CANYON REGIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WEATHER WILL TREND WARMER AND DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE FOUR CORNERS AND GRAND CANYON REGIONS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
THE FOUR CORNERS AND GRAND CANYON REGIONS ON FRIDAY. DRY AND WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN


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