Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 170928
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
228 AM MST Sun Mar 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A cut off area of low pressure lingers over Arizona
through the weekend and into early next week resulting in cool
temperatures, breezy winds, and scattered rain and snow showers
with a few thunderstorms. Drier weather and warmer daytime
temperatures start on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...No notable changes to the forecast from recent
messaging: a cut off low will continue to linger overhead. While
this low continues to linger overhead, wobbles/shifts in its
placement will result in variable shower and storm coverage over
the coming days. Showers will be possible any time of day, though
becoming more isolated at night: greater coverage will develop
each afternoon as showers and storms will be driven primarily by
instability, much like what we saw Saturday (yesterday). Because
coverage will be more diurnally driven, exact placement for higher
amounts of QPF is hard to accomplish. This activity will continue
not just for today, but for Monday and Tuesday as well.
Temperatures during the period are going to be below normal but
warming over the coming days.

Wednesday will see the low finally starting to be picked up by the
upper level flow and ridging starting to build into the area. It
won`t be totally dry Wednesday, but shower and storm coverage will
be far more limited.

Dry, warming weather will return for the later part of the coming
for week with ridging passing overhead. It still doesn`t appear to
last long though. Ensemble guidance to still points to our next
weather system arriving some time next weekend with low confidence
in precipitation and temperature details at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 17/06Z through Monday 18/06Z...Areas of MVFR,
IFR, and LIFR conditions will continue tonight due to low cloud
ceilings. VFR will become more widespread in the morning, but
scattered rain/snow showers and thunderstorms after 18Z will bring
brief reductions in visibility. This activity will diminish after
00Z. Expect light winds of less than 15 knots to persist through
the period.

OUTLOOK...Monday 18/06Z through Wednesday 20/06Z...Daily chances
for rain/snow showers and thunderstorms will continue, with
greatest coverage during the afternoon hours. Expect mainly VFR
conditions with areas of MVFR and brief periods of IFR. Mostly
light winds persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Low pressure over the state will
bring scattered rain and high elevation snow showers, mainly during
the afternoon hours. Expect well below average temperatures. Winds
will become east to northeast around 10 to 20 mph today and Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Cool temperatures continue with scattered
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, becoming isolated Wednesday as
the low finally moves eastward. Dry weather returns Thursday when
temperatures begin to warm. West-southwest winds 10-15 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...Benji
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


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