Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 262114
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
215 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN SHOULD RETURN
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE STARTING TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND MORE STABLE MID LEVEL AIR IS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A HANDFUL OF WEAK STORMS GOING AS OF 2 PM.
THERE IS A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT EVIDENT IN BOTH WATER VAPOR AND
SATELLITE PW IMAGERY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF A SUPAI TO
PHOENIX LINE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE LOWERED TO THE 15-30
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE
EXPECTED BASED ON THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY.

PROGS SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THERE
IS AN UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WAVE THAT IS SHOWN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
THROUGH YAVAPAI COUNTY AND WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS FEATURE.

STARTING TUESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO REFORM OVER SOUTHERN AZ...WITH DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW COMING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY START A DOWNWARD TREND ALONG THE UTAH BORDER TUESDAY AND
THIS TREND MOVES SOUTHWARD WITH TIME THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES
WERE LOWERED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40 FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. EXPECT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 03Z-05Z...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA
OVERNIGHT. IMPACTS ARE VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS. SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....41
AVIATION...JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









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