Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 022138
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
238 PM MST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MONSOON WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL MEANDER AROUND THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL MONSOONAL PATTERN.

AFTERNOON STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAKER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TODAY WILL LEAD TO THE
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL...THOUGH A DECREASE IN THE
THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY
WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY MEAN FLOW STEERING STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST.
STORMS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THE RIM NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER
THIS EVENING.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SINKS
SOUTHWARD INTO ARIZONA OVER THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF SCATTERED DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN PLACE.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE CIRCULATION OVERHEAD AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A CONCERN. ADDITIONAL STORM THREATS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING AND HAIL. IT WOULD BE A
GOOD TIME TO PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS.

THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WITH A VERY
BRIEF DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY INCREASES LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH
MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION....FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...ISLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BECOMING ISLD AFT 03Z. SCT SHRA/-
TSRA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KPAN-KRQE THROUGH
10Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ISLD/SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFT 18Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A TYPICAL MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SOME DRYING TO THE
AREA BY TUESDAY...DECREASING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...BAK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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