Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260454
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A
STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
THIS EVENING ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF WHAT THEY WERE 24 HOURS
AGO. HOWEVER...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE AS
MUCH AS 13 DEGREES HIGHER. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /309 PM MST/...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHERN
ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD IMPACTING NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR
WEATHER...WARMING
TEMPERATURES...AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. DURING
THIS PERIOD...EXPECT DECREASING TEMPERATURES AS COOLER AIR PUSHES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL...AS
700 MB SOUTHWEST GRADIENTS TIGHTEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST THE PASSAGE OF A
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN
ADDITION...BOTH MODELS INDICATE 500 MB Q-VECTOR FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS...COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DETAILS WITH REGARDS TO THE
EXACT TIMING...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ARE
STILL UNCLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC
WINDS VARIABLE TO 10KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/RR
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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