Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
FXUS65 KFGZ 221007
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
307 AM MST FRI JUL 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and storms are expected this
afternoon across much of northern Arizona. Storm coverage will
decrease significantly this weekend as drier air moves in from the
west. Moisture and storm chances will increase again next week
mainly along and south of the Mogollon Rim.
.DISCUSSION...The axis of strong high pressure will shift over or
just south of the forecast area today through Saturday. Moisture
will linger across the area today so some scattered afternoon
thunderstorms are expected with the best chance along and just
north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. A few storms could
produce heavy rainfall again today, but should be localized. By
Saturday, some westerly flow will push drier air into the region
with the most pronounced drying from around Flagstaff northward.
This will reduce storm chances across Coconino and Yavapai
Counties. The greatest storm chances will remain over southern
Navajo and Apache Counties where deeper moisture will linger.
Most model guidance shows the ridge shifting back northward as
early as Sunday into midweek. This should allow for some better
moisture and storm chances to gradually return, especially for
areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.
Depending on where the high eventually sets up, we could see some
east or northeast steering flow off the higher terrain which is
favorable for some stronger storms in the late afternoon and
evening in Gila County and the lower elevations of Yavapai County.
Far northern Arizona (along/north of Grand Canyon to Window Rock)
often remains drier in this pattern. With high pressure in place,
expect hot temperatures in this area, 110+ at Phantom Ranch,
102-104 at Page and near 90 at Grand Canyon south rim.
.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Isolated -TSRA possible through
the morning hours. Aft 17Z...expect scattered TSRA to develop from
KFLG eastward with isolated -TSRA west. VFR conditions will prevail
but local MVFR will be possible in the stronger storm cells.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...Drier westerly flow will begin a decreasing trend in
thunderstorms today...most notable across the western half of
Arizona. The drying trend continues Saturday when afternoon humidity
will drop into the 15-25% range as temperatures rise well above
Sunday through Tuesday...Decreased thunderstorm chances and warm
temperatures continue Sunday. Moisture may begin to increase from
the Mogollon Rim (Flagstaff area) south from Monday onward.
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