Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 210353
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA ON
THURSDAY ENHANCING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS LOW WILL FILTER INTO ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL DOWN TURN IN STORM ACTIVITY
FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL SWEEP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH HAS
SLOWED DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS CAUSING THE ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA INTO LATE
THURSDAY EVENING. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC FORCING OVER MOUNTAIN REGIONS LEADING
TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BRADSHAW
MOUNTAINS AND THE MOGOLLON RIM REGIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA. HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER ALREADY WET GROUND IN SOME AREAS MAY ELEVATE THE RISK
FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LOW MOVES OUT ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW SLOWLY DECREASING OUR CHANCES FOR STORM ACTIVITY EACH
DAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ERRATIC GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
HEAVY SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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