Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 202200

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
300 PM MST Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a cooling trend with windy conditions through
Friday. Cool conditions will persist over the weekend, although
not as windy. Expect freezing temperatures for much of the high
country Saturday and Sunday mornings.


A trough across the western U.S. will continue to deepen and dig
southward over the next couple days. An uptick in winds is
expected for Thursday, and a wind advisory has been issued to
account for the gusty winds across much of northern Arizona. As
the trough nears and pushes across the state, a chance for showers
will develop Thursday evening and into Friday, with much cooler
daytime temperatures developing for Friday and the weekend. In
addition, many locations above 6500 may experience the first
significant freeze of the season on Saturday/Sunday mornings.
Climatologically, this is about right on time for when we normally
experience this. Temperatures are gradually anticipated to return
to near normal levels next week.


.AVIATION...For the 00z package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hours. Look for south to southwest surface winds 10-20 kt with
gusts from 25-35 kt until 02z. Overnight, winds will generally
weaken to southwest at 5-15 kt but gusts to 35 kt will be possible
downwind of terrain features. On Thursday, southwest winds of 20-30
kt with gust to 40 kt are expected by the afternoon. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...An approaching low pressure system and associated
cold front will produce strong southwesterly winds across northern
Arizona on Thursday. For Friday, the cold front will move across the
area with breezy conditions continuing. Generally dry conditions are
forecast with just a slight chance of thunderstorms. A bit cooler
temperatures behind the cold front.

Saturday through Monday...Look for lighter winds as the cold front
moves eastward. A slight chance for thunderstorms will continue on
Saturday but end for Sunday and Monday. The cooler air mass will
ensure well below normal temperatures into early next week.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8
PM MST Thursday FOR AZZ004>017-039-040.




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