Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 210408
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
908 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
DISTURBANCE NEAR MEXICO WILL HELP TO PUSH UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE
AN INCREASING TREND IN OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
A LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL INTERACT TO KEEP NORTHERN
ARIZONA IN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ONE MORE DAY.
SIX WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUMES WERE EVIDENT ON THE GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY TODAY FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM TO JUST NORTH OF PAYSON.

TUESDAY WILL BE A MOISTURE TRANSITION DAY AS A EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR BAJA WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIVE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS NORTHWARD UP INTO
ARIZONA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF SOUTHERN APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FU
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT VCNTY KSEZ AND KFLG. ISOLD HIGH BASED -SHRA/-TSRA
FROM 18Z-02Z MONDAY EAST OF KSOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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