Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 211149

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
449 AM MST Fri Apr 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and warm conditions to continue through the
weekend. High pressure will bring lighter winds and warmer days
through Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will return Sunday
through Tuesday as two more troughs brush Arizona.


A quick moving ridge of high pressure will build into the area
through Saturday, before quickly exiting to the east under the
influence of a trough moving inland from the Pacific Coast. This
will create dry and warm conditions will continue across the area
through the weekend with breezy conditions developing Sunday
afternoon. Due to the warm temperatures, low relative humidity and
windy weather a fire weather watch has been issued for Sunday
afternoon and evening.

Zonal flow will remain in place Sunday through early Wednesday
ahead of pattern shift that looks to move towards a wetter more
active period with a large scale trough moving over the Western
United States late Wednesday through the end of the period.
While timing and locations of showers is still too far out to
portray high confidence, continued model solutions showing a
large scale trough moving across the area has caused an increase
in pops and cloud cover to better convey this potential shift
towards more seasonal temperatures and wetter conditions.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...VFR conditions are forecast over
the next 24 hours. Expect northerly winds through most of the day,
with speeds generally in the 10-15 kt range or less. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect light northerly winds at most locations
today. High pressure will lead to well above normal temperatures,
low humidities and light winds on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...On Sunday, a passing trough will likely
cause strong southwest winds to combine with low humidities at most
locations along and north of the Mogollon Rim. A Red Flag Watch has
been issued from noon to 7 pm Sunday. Breezy southwest winds and dry
conditions continue Monday and Tuesday.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
FOR AZZ104-106-107-109-111>116-138>140.




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