Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 161735

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1035 AM MST Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Look for warm temperatures and dry conditions through
Tuesday with just a few higher level clouds sneaking across
northern Arizona. For Wednesday and Thursday a weak weather
disturbance will combine with increased moisture for partly to
mostly cloudy skies along with a few sprinkles over the higher
terrain. Another passing disturbance will produce breezy
conditions and cooler temperatures on Friday and Saturday.


.UPDATE...Another warm and quiet day across northern Arizona as
high pressure builds into the region. The current forecast looks
good with no morning updates needed.


.PREV DISCUSSION /335 AM MST/...A bit of an unsettled weather
pattern over the coming week. Nothing major, just a few
disturbances along the way to bring at various times a slight
chance of showers, cooler temperatures and windy conditions.

For today and Tuesday...High pressure centered over northern
Mexico will dominate the weather across northern Arizona. Look
for high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal with dry
conditions. A few high levels clouds will sneak across northern
Arizona on Tuesday.

On Wednesday and Thursday...A weak weather disturbance and
associated jet max will move across Arizona. Moisture, which can
be seen just off the California coast in morning infrared imagery,
will move across Arizona. This in combination with weak upward
motion will produce a few sprinkles Wednesday afternoon and
evening. The air mass even becomes a bit unstable by Thursday
with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Otherwise, partly to mostly
cloudy skies with slightly cooler daytime temperatures.

From Friday onward...A stronger shortwave trough will move across
Arizona on Friday and Saturday. The slight chance of showers will
continue on Friday but end by Saturday as drier air moves in. The
trough will induce gusty southwest winds, likely in the 20 to 30
mph range, from the Mogollon Rim northward. Cooler with
temperatures dipping to near normal levels. High pressure could
return by late in the weekend for warming temperatures.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions and light sfc
winds will prevail over northern Arizona through the next 24 hrs.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and very dry conditions will continue through
Tuesday. 20 foot and mixing layer winds at less than 10 mph through
Tuesday. Ventilation looks fair at best during the afternoons,
otherwise poor.

Wednesday through Friday...Increasing mid and high level moisture
will bring cloud cover to all and a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the high country through Thursday. 20 foot and
mixing layer winds to remain light through Thursday. 20 foot
winds should become light southwest Thursday night and then
increase Friday as a cold front moves through the Great Basin.






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