Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011113
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
413 AM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY AND NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS. THESE WILL BE THE FAVORED AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE. LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN SHIFT TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE TODAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS, ENHANCED WIND SHEAR CONTINUES
WITH S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY ALOFT. ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY, MAINLY FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS SOUTHWARD INTO GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES.
HAIL TO 1" IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH BEING THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WIND SHEAR DECREASES AS THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE STATE. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY, SO EXPECT SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STRONGER
E/NE STEERING FLOWS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL DECREASE, SO
STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO ROLL OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE
LOWER VALLEYS AND POPS IN THESE AREAS ARE LOWER. BY SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MID LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO RE-
POSITION SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA RESULTING IN A FEW DAYS OF A
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER AND
NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. THIS STEERING FLOW IS
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS SOUTH OF THE RIM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY
THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER CELLS. ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT 18Z
WED. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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