Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 110433

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
933 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Lingering rain and mountain snow showers will
diminish by early Thursday. Fair and mild weather returns for the
remainder of the week and into early next week.


.UPDATE...The main trough continues to shift eastward toward the
plains states this evening, with Arizona in northwest flow on the
back side of the system. Deep moisture and a final disturbance
moving into northeast Arizona is causing a continuation of mainly
light rain and snow showers, with snow levels near or just below
7000 ft. Expect the highest elevations to pick up some additional
light accumulations of 1-3" through around midnight, then look for
activity to diminish.


.PREV DISCUSSION /316 PM MST/...The taste of winter felt over the
past 24 hours will be brief as a ridge of high pressure amplifies
over the area and dominates weather for the next several days.
This will mean a return to dry weather and above normal
temperatures. A weak pressure gradient under the ridge will also
promote light winds through the weekend. Latest model guidance
indicates shortwave energy and precipitation will stay north of
the region Tue-Wed, but this will continue to be monitored over
the coming days. There are signs of another front impacting the
region late next week, but confidence is low at this time.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...A passing weather system will
continue to produce isolated to scattered rain/snow showers and
MVFR/IFR conditions east of a KPAN-KPGA line through 12Z. Upslope
winds and moisture will produce patchy fog and/or low ceilings with
localized IFR conditions along and north of the Mogollon Rim through
14Z. Aviation discussion not updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...An exiting low pressure system will continue to
bring isolated to scattered rain and snow showers over higher
terrain tonight, greatest activity over far eastern zones. On
Thursday and Friday, strengthening high pressure will lead to a
warming and drying trend.

Saturday through Monday...Dry and warm weather continues under
passing high pressure. Daytime temperatures will be around 10
degrees above normal.






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