Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201651
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
951 AM MST SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY IN APACHE COUNTY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS THE LATE MORNING
PROGRESSES...BUT CURRENT FORECAST OF ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /305 AM MST/...
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA
KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN APACHE COUNTY THROUGH
MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. PW`S
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ABOVE 550 MB
WITH A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER. THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN AROUND 596-598 WITH FAIRLY WARM 500 MB
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH NOT WARM ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY CAP
CONVECTION. THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM 10-30%
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
FORECASTS BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE OPERATIONAL EC.
BOTH AGREE ON A FAIRLY STRONG 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUING. HOWEVER...THE GFS MOVES THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
INTO S NV/NW AZ WHICH WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO MORE OF A DRIER AND
STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHERN AZ WITH VERY MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IF ANY AT ALL. THE EC BASICALLY KEEPS THE 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A
LOW GRADE MONSOONAL OR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP WITH ONLY 10-30
PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU AND MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW IT WAS DECIDED
TO BEND THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE EC SOLUTION...WHICH TENDS TO
BE MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS APACHE COUNTY THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/TC
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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