Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271628
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT MOISTURE AND SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS NOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER BETWEEN
LAS VEGAS AND RENO. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY.
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH DECREASING DYNAMICS. CURRENT GRIDS HANDLE THIS WELL.
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS
MORNING. WILL ALSO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /445 AM MST/...THIS LOW PULLED PLENTY OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...WITH A GENERAL
0.10-0.40 INCH RAINFALL IN YAVAPAI CO OVERNIGHT. AMOUNTS FARTHER
NORTH HAVE BEEN LIGHTER. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WITH THE LOW HAS
PUSHED INTO FAR NW ARIZONA AT 4 AM...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. EXPECTING A DECREASING TREND
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BY LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY THIS EVENING. FAIR AND A BIT WARMER WEATHER
RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND HEAD EASTWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING
CHANCES SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE
LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH JUST HOW MUCH LOWER IS STILL IN
QUESTION. OUR CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP THE SNOW LEVEL AT OR ABOVE THE
7500-8000 FOOT LEVEL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FALLING TO
6500-7000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
AS THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW DOWN TO THE POPULATED AREAS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL
NORTH OF ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL 00Z...STILL ANTICIPATING
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR
TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCALIZED
PATCHES OF FOG POSSIBLE FROM KGCN-KFLG SOUTHWARD. LIGHT WINDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....MAS/JJ
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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