Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 121037
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
337 AM MST FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ARIZONA INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF
TODAY. ON SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BRING EVEN BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TODAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES ON
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECT A LOW TO MODERATE GRADE MONSOON
PATTERN WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...FAVORING
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

TUESDAY ONWARD...TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AND MOVE NORTHWEST TRACKING WEST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA COASTLINE.
MODELS INDICATE THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL INITIATE A SURGE OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN NORTHERN ARIZONA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD
BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN. NAEFS PRECIPITABLE
WATER FORECAST RANGES FROM 1.25 INCHES OF PWATS IN SOUTHEAST
YAVAPAI COUNTY TO 0.75 INCHES IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
REPRESENTS PWATS GREATER THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE WHAT IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT WDLY SCT AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A KRQE-KPAN LINE...ACTIVITY DISSIPATING
BETWEEN 01-3Z SATURDAY.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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