Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280414
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
914 PM MST WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...A
SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
CAUSING CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW...AND SLIGHT CHANCES
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...INCREASING IN
COVERAGE INTO THURSDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO
TURN WINDIER THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /308 PM MST/...A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW, AS WELL
AS A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, TO THE REGION.

THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND IS EXPECTED TO
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RADAR INDICATES
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY BEGUN IN FAR NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD, WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING IN FAR
WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS COCONINO
AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS MAY DIP DOWN TO 7000 FEET EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A COUPLE TENTHS OF QUICKLY MELTING SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE FLAGSTAFF AREA.

ON THURSDAY, STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS, SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SNOW LEVELS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS AND NORTH RIM OF
THE GRAND CANYON WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WINDIEST LOCATIONS WILL BE FROM THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY, BEFORE THE
FIRST WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A
SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER
THE WEEKEND CAUSING CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AND
SPREAD EAST WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-20 KTS RANGE...THOUGH
LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN LOOKS TO BE
FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF AND PRESCOTT NORTHWESTWARD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY, LINGERING INTO MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUED COOL WEATHER. A
DECENT SHOT AT WETTING RAINS AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/RR
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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