Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 190318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
818 PM MST Tue Oct 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will persist across northern Arizona
through Sunday. Expect slightly cooler temperatures and breezy
north to northeast winds on Wednesday. A strong warming trend
will develop starting Thursday, with afternoon temperatures around
10 degrees above normal this weekend. A chance of showers is
forecast for Monday and Tuesday.


.UPDATE...A weak cool front draped across the AZ/UT border region
this evening will make its way south overnight. Expect winds to
shift to north and then northeast, becoming breezy in spots around
sunrise. Some areas near prescribed burning activity may see
periods of smoke tonight as it settles into low lying terrain.
This includes the Flagstaff area. Forecast trends are on track
with no updates planned.


.PREV DISCUSSION /224 PM MST/... Expect dry conditions through
Sunday, along with breezy winds during the next few days. A
shallow cold front moving through the the northeast quarter of the
state late tonight will bring breezy north to northeast winds
through tomorrow and slightly cooler max temps.

Starting Thursday, strengthening high pressure aloft will lead to
warming daytime temps, with values around 10 degrees above normal
this weekend.

Extended range models indicate increasing moisture and chances for
showers ahead of a Pacific trough for Monday and Tuesday. Expect
increasing winds and cooling temps as well.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z forecast...Look for VFR conditions to
persist over the next 24 hrs. The exception being areas near
planned burning activity which could see lowered VIS/CIG due to
smoke, including KFLG. Winds shifting to N and NE overnight,
becoming 10-20 kts by 12Z especially from KFLG southwest. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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