Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231646

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
946 AM MST FRI SEP 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect cooler and drier conditions for most of the area
today, behind a cold front that moved through overnight. Showers
and a few thunderstorms will continue in eastern Arizona, before
the front moves out of the state late this afternoon. Dry and
slightly warmer conditions are anticipated for the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Minor updates to the forecast were completed this
morning. Finer time resolution was added to the precip forecast
to show the progression of showers/storms through eastern
Arizona, with all precip expected to clear the forecast area by 5
pm. Also, a stable layer is noted on model forecast soundings both
ahead of and near the cold front. Though frontal lift certainly
could overcome that layer and locally destabilize the atmosphere
enough for some lightning this afternoon, we went with isolated
thunder in the forecast.


.PREV DISCUSSION /500 AM MST/...A cold front is currently located
between Flagstaff and Payson, extending northeast to the Four
Corners. This front is interacting with remaining moisture over
the area and is producing isolated showers and thunderstorms as it
moves eastward. The front will slow down a bit today and may
become more active near the New Mexico border as surface heating
improves later today. Much colder and drier air trails the front,
with gusty southwest winds continuing ahead of the front.

This system will exit the area to the east by this evening and a
cold night is expected as winds decrease in the drier airmass.

Expect heights to rebound over the weekend, although northeast
gradients will develop, keeping areas along and northeast of the
Mogollon Rim a bit cool.

Models advertise some additional energy to move south around the
building Pacific ridge next week. This may consolidate into a
closed low, which might retrograde westward under the ridge. This
pattern will slow down any warming trend and may bring moisture
back into the area from the east and southeast. This remains to be
seen and is not agreed upon by all models. We have taken a
compromise approach and will wait and see what the next few models
runs look like.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA
east of a KSOW-KOV7 line will move east out of the area by around
21Z. With these showers, look for ceilings at or below 3000 ft AGL
with local MVFR to IFR conditions. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will
continue through Saturday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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