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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 040300
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
800 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OTHERWISE...MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LINGERING INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS NRN AZ THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. CURRENT FCST HANDLES THIS WELL AND NO SHORT TERM UPDATES
REQUIRED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION (315 PM...TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED TO THE 50S AND
60S ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND STORM.
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TODAY...BUT MOST OF THIS IS SHALLOW AND WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY
PROMOTING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. ONE MORE
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST AZ.
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE AREA
TUESDAY...CLEARING OUT BY TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST MODELS BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE REGION SOMETIME LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SFC WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOMING W-NW 5-15KT TUES AFTERNOON. AFT 04/18Z EAST OF
KPGA-KRQE LINE BKN CLOUD BASES AOA 12KFT MSL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-SHRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DB/JJ
AVIATION.......DB/DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF