Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191604
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
904 AM MST TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE UTAH BORDER TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO RETURN THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY RESULTING IN A MOSTLY DRY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER ARIZONA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE A FEW INSTABILITY
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP...PRIMARILY FROM GRAND CANYON NORTH TO THE
UTAH BORDER. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS ARE ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /337 AM MST/...A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA EARLIER TODAY IS JUST ABOUT CLEAR OF THE EASTERN BORDER
AND INTO NEW MEXICO. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY NEAR THE UTAH
BORDER MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND SHOULD MAKE FOR A PAIR OF NEAR NORMAL MAY DAYS.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER ZONES AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS LOW WILL
BRING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN ANY POPULATED AREAS. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY
MOVE AWAY FOR A MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF A KGCN-KRQE LINE THROUGH 06Z WEDS WITH SCT-BKN120 MSL CLOUD
BASES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST BREEZES
DURING THE AFTERNOONS ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SW WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. EXPECT INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/PETERSON
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...DL


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