Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301029
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST THU JUL 230 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY AND SHOULD
LEAD TO LESS STORM COVERAGE IN THIS AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON MOISTURE HAS SURGED NORTHWARD OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS...WITH SFC DEW POINTS NOW IN THE 50S AND SATELLITE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING ONE INCH AS FAR NORTH AS PAGE.
WIND STREAMLINES SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AZ THIS
MORNING AND THIS FEATURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THUS IT
LOOKS LIKE INCREASING STORM COVERAGE TODAY ACROSS COCONINO AND
YAVAPAI COUNTIES. THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY....AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS NOW SHOWING DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO RETURN ON SUNDAY...PUSHING THE MONSOON PLUME EASTWARD TO THE
NEW MEXICO LINE. PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED FOR THE DAYTIME FOR
AREAS WEST OF A PAGE TO PAYSON LINE AND REMOVED FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES THOUGH.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA THIS
MORNING MAINLY SOUTH/EAST OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF-KAYENTA LINE.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AZ AFT 17Z. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AFT 03Z FRI. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL MONSOON WEATHER CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY EXPECTED HAZARDS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A DOWNTURN IN STORM ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

$$

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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