Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 161703

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1003 AM MST Thu Mar 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect well above normal temperatures and dry
conditions to continue through this weekend. Windy and cooler
weather arrives by the middle of next week, along with a chance of
rain and snow showers.


Mostly sunny and warm conditions to persist today. Forecast looks
in good shape with no major updates anticipated this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /325 AM MST/... Dry and warm conditions will
continue through the remainder of the week as the ridge of high
pressure remains over the area. A weak transient trough currently
moving through the ridge is responsible for the cloud cover that
will limit temperatures from reaching record highs, however no
precipitation is anticipated from these clouds that should exit
the area by this evening.

As the ridge slowly moves eastward some cloud cover will be
possible, through the weekend. Breezy conditions will begin to
develop Sunday and Monday ahead of the next low pressure system
that will bring showers to the area late Tuesday or Wednesday.
While confidence is not high concerning the timing of this
feature, expect increasing chances as the middle of next week
approaches if models continue to hone in on this next system.

While it is too far away to jump all in on model solutions more
than 7 days out, current models are suggesting that the storm
middle of next week by be the first disturbance in a pattern
shift to a wetter more active flow regime with a second system
impacting the area late next week.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect VFR conditions through
the next 24 hours. Southwest winds 10-20 knots until around 01Z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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