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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241712
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1010 AM MST THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&
.DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AIR OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING.
SOUNDING HAD 1.06 INCHES PWAT WITH SAT DERIVED VALUES UP TO 1.40
INCHES. MID LAYER CLOUDS ARE COVER NORTHWESTERN 2/3 OF CWA WITH
CLEARING OVER THE WHITES AND EASTERN RIM/GILA COUNTY. SURFACE
HEATING IN THESE AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DESTABILIZATION WITH
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO START BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON. WILL INCREASE
POPS OVER THE WHITES FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /350 PM MST/...A WEAK DEFORMATION AREA OVER CENTRAL
ARIZONA HAS ENABLED PERSISTENT LIGHT SHOWER AND SUBSTANTIAL DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH TODAY...WITH POSSIBLE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AS A RESULT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS IMPROVED
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STILL A BIT CAPPY. DRIER
ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST MAY ALSO HAMPER ACTIVITY
FOR A FEW DAYS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. ASIDE FROM THESE
DETAILS...A FAIRLY STANDARD MONSOONAL CIRCULATION WILL SET UP FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME DRYING NEXT WEEK AS THE
MID-LEVEL HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DECENT...BUT
INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAK. LOW TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE GRADE
MONSOONAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
RESULT. WITH PARTIALLY LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED -SHRA WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING PRIMARILY WEST OF A KAYENTA TO WINSLOW LINE. AREAS OF SMOKE
FROM WILDFIRES MAY PRODUCE MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF
KSEZ...KFLG...AND KGCN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS AND BRIEF
MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/PETERSON
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF