National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 072214
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA...
BEGINNING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING
EASTWARD TONIGHT...THEN ENDING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD NRN AZ THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AS SOME LOW LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES EASTWARD. A FEW
FLURRIES WERE ALREADY FALLING BUT THE MAIN PART OF THE STORM WILL
ARRIVE LATER.

WE HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS...INCLUDING
THE  GFS...ECMWF...NAM...AND SREF...CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH SLIGHT
INCREASES IN PCPN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION. CONSEQUENTLY...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE EAST AND SOME
MINOR CHANGES IN THE WEST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
WESTERN ZONES CONTINUE...WHILE SOME ZONES IN THE EAST HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED SINCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET INITIALLY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT SHIFTS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH
WEAKENING SECONDARY CIRCULATIONS TO SUPPORT THE FRONT...THUS THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT IT NOW APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THIS PERIOD.

RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL PRODUCE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BREEZY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. THE RIDGE
FLATTENS BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALLOWING A MODERATING
WESTERLY FLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH 00Z-06Z. BY 01Z-03Z...SITES ALONG AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM KFMN TO KPAN WILL SEE AREAS OF LIFR AND ISOLD VLIFR OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SW SFC WNDS 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS MOST
AREAS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY CAUSING BLSN ABOVE 5500 FEET MSL. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM NW TO E CENTRAL BTWN 12Z-18Z WITH ISOLD IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AFT 18Z SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ004-006.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
AZZ007-008-015-038.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR AZZ039.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST
SUNDAY FOR AZZ016.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DB
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF