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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251100
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
355 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. STARTING MONDAY...A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
ARIZONA...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
ARIZONA IN A MILD NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM WILL BECOME QUITE WARM (AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)...AS
NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE RIM...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER IN SOME AREAS
INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.

MEANWHILE TO OUR SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW IS BOTTOMING OUT JUST WEST OF
THE BAJA SPUR. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE WEST
COAST RIDGE MOVES INLAND. THE FLOW OVER ARIZONA TURNS SOUTHERLY AND
A SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT OUR AREA MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH THE BEST CHANCES
MONDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BE A MILD SYSTEM WITH SNOW ONLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...
MAINLY ABOVE 8500-9000 FEET. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE...GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHTER AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE RIM. FAIR WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTING UP IN A SIMILAR LOCATION OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SENDING ANOTHER SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
FOR SNOW LEVELS A BIT LOWER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...OUR CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE IN THE 7000-8000 FOOT RANGE THOUGH THIS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.


&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS N-NE 10G20KT ALONG AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF