Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 200338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
838 PM MST Fri May 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...For the weekend, expect dry weather, relatively light
winds and a warming trend. On Monday, isolated storms over higher
terrain are possible. Beginning Tuesday, high pressure will lead
to near to above normal temperatures and afternoon breezes.


.DISCUSSION...Few clouds across northern Arizona disipate
overnight leaving clear skies through Saturday. The deep trough to
the east and a ridge over the Pacific Northwest keeps the area
under a northwesterly flow resulting in light winds through the
weekend and into early next week. No reason to change the current


.PREV DISCUSSION /216 PM MST/...Current satellite and upper-air
analysis reveals the low that brought winds, rain and snow to the
area has moved into Colorado. This leaves northern Arizona on the
backside of a longwave trough draped across the central United
States. As a result, a light northerly wind has developed across
the region, with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies confined to
northeast portions of the state.

Over the weekend, northern Arizona remains under the influence of
a broad longwave trough. Dry weather, along with warming
temperatures and relatively light winds are forecast. On Monday,
isolated storms are possible over higher terrain as a fast moving
shortwave trough crosses the area.

Beginning Tuesday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to setup over
the state from the west. This will result in near to above normal
temperatures and typical breezy afternoon winds. Dry weather is
forecast across northern Arizona, except perhaps in the White
Mountains where enough instability may exist for some isolated


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions and light
afternoon breezes over the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry conditions and a warming trend for the
weekend. Moderate to high Haines values are forecast by Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Moderate to high Haines values are
forecast each day, with isolated high-based storms possible in
mountainous terrain on Monday. Daytime temperatures will be near
to slightly above normal.






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