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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211604
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
904 AM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST IN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AND A DISTURBANCE HEADING NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL HELP TO PUSH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND THE FORECAST
HAS AN INCREASING TREND FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. FOR TODAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY WHERE THERE IS ENOUGH BOUDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /305 AM MST/...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA AT
LEAST THROUGH TODAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO NEW MEXICO TUESDAY
AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO WILL AID IN THE RETURN OF A MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THEN
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SIX MANAGED WILDFIRES...THE SMOKE PLUMES WERE EVIDENT ON THE GOES
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUNDAY DURING THE DAY...FROM THE GRAND
CANYON REGION SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM TO JUST NORTH OF
PAYSON. THESE FIRE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PATCHY SMOKE NEAR
THE GROUND IN THE VICINITY AROUND EACH FIRE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE...MAINLY FROM THE COCONINO
PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PATCHY FU POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLD HIGH
BASED -SHRA/-TSRA FROM 18Z-02Z TODAY AROUND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/TC
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF