Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 140412
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA
THIS WEEKEND...WHILE THE NORTHERN MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. EXPECT
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRAY
SHOWER. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...STEERING LEVEL STREAMLINES INDICATE
AREAS NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF WILL NOT SEE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH REMAIN MOIST.
THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL BE THE TRANSITION AREA BETWEEN THESE TWO AIR
MASSES.

BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...STREAMLINES MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH
A POSSIBLE GULF SURGE INDUCED BY ODILE. MODELS DIFFER ON SUPPORT FOR
THIS...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AFTER 18Z...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. WIND
GUSTS TO 35 KTS NEAR STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/PETERSON
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/DL/PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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