Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 162306
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
405 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 5500 FEET. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INLAND ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS ARRIVING INTO COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES BY AROUND 2 AM
MST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM 5500 FEET AND ABOVE WITH
SNOW ON AREA ROADWAYS FROM FLAGSTAFF WESTWARD. THE STORM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES ABOVE 5500 FEET AND THEN
INTO THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS...BLACK MESA...AND
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE STARING IN THE WEST THURSDAY MORNING...THEN IN THE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL SNOWFALL TOTALS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES WITH 8-12 INCHES ABOVE 9000
FEET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A WEAK TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA BRINGING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU...BLACK MESA...AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT WITH A SECOND
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY.

TIL 06Z WEDS VFR FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA THOUGH MVFR CIGS AND SCT
-SHRA / -SHSN TO MOVE INTO AREAS WEST OF A KPGA-KPRC LINE.

AFT 06Z...MIXED MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE MOGOLLON RIM TO THE FOUR CORNERS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 5K FT OVER THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU TO 6K FEET IN THE WHITE MTNS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ004-006-008-015.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY
FOR AZZ016-017.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF













USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.