Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 161704

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1004 AM MST Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will persist through Friday, with a chance
of storms gradually returning late in the weekend and early next
week as monsoon moisture returns.


.UPDATE...Low dewpoints and calm winds brought some cool low
temperatures this morning. Several higher elevations sites were
down into the 30s including the Flagstaff region. High
temperatures will rebound a bit from yesterday, but still a few
degrees below normal. Look for another cool night tonight. No
forecast updates needed this morning.

.PREV DISCUSSION /252 AM MST/...A warm and dry southwest flow
aloft will persist across northern Arizona through Friday. Look
for daytime temperatures to warm to near normal by Friday.
Overnight lows will be a bit below normal due to the drier air
mass, generally clear skies and the effects of radiational

From Saturday onward...Models show a low pressure system forming
just off the the California coast. This position will favor the
development on southerly flow across Arizona. Monsoon moisture is
always lurking over Mexico this time of year and southerly flow
will pull some of this moisture across Arizona. The result will be
an increasing chance of showers through early next week.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions will continue for
the 24 hour TAF period. Expect light southwesterly breezes during
the afternoon hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...A break in monsoon storms will continue today
and Thursday. Expect lower than usual humidity for this time of
year, along with light southwest winds and slightly below normal

Friday through Sunday...Mainly dry conditions continue Friday and
Saturday, though a limited moisture return Saturday may bring a
slight chance of thunderstorms near the White Mountains. Moisture is
forecast to spread farther north and west by Sunday with slight
thunderstorm chances returning to most of northern Arizona.






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