Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 161632
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT AUG 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY AND
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR A BIT DRIER AIR AND A GENERAL DOWNTURN IN STORM
ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. STARTING MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW
MEXICO AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST...MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD. EXPECT AND
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY.

&&
.DISCUSSION...NORTHERN ARIZONA WAS VIRTUALLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. BY
900 AM...A FEW CLOUDS WERE FORMING OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURRED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS IN FAR NORTHERN
ARIZONA. PAGE HAD A 21 DEGREE DROP IN DEWPOINT VALUES (59 TO 38).
THE KFGZ SOUNDING WENT FROM 0.88 TO 0.67 PWAT. THE SOUNDING ALSO
SHOWED A 2-3 DEGREE C WARMING FROM ABOUT 680 MB DOWN TO 760 MB.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS TODAY. THIS LOOKS
GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /230 AM MST/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE ACROSS
ARIZONA FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND SUNDAY. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED
INTO ARIZONA ON THE WINGS OF WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE HIGH. STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR ZERO ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER OF ARIZONA. BUT EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  STORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WHICH RESIDE ON
THE EDGE OF DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL.

FROM MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK...MODELS SHOWING THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE FLOW WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY OPENING THE DOOR TO THE RETURN OF DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE.
MONDAY SHOULD SEE AND INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...IT COULD BECOME DOWNRIGHT WET AS MONSOON
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF
THE CALIFORNIA LOW. AT THIS POINT WE COULD SEE ROUND THREE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND COOLISH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

LATE NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM A PUNCH OF DRY
WESTERLY FLOW (THE GFS MODEL) TO A CONTINUATION OF MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW (THE EUROPEAN MODEL). THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT IS BEST
TO CARRY THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL
THE MODELS COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A KPRC-KFLG-KPGA AFTER 18Z. ISOLD MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS...AS WELL AS ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KTS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....MAS/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








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