Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 111053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
353 AM MST Wed Oct 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry southwesterly flow will persist through the week
with temperatures near normal. Expect breezy afternoon winds to
return again from Wednesday through Saturday with weakening winds
late in the weekend.


A trough of low pressure will slowly work inland over the Pacific
Northwest, bringing breezy south westerly flow across the area
through the remainder of the week.Temperatures climbing each day
through the first half of the weekend under this stable flow

By Saturday night a large scale trough of low pressure will move
across the rocky mountains and into the northern Great Plains.
While this is not expected to drastically change the temperatures
for early next week, it should alleviate some of the breezy
conditions as a zonal flow sets up over the Southwest, and
pressure gradients relax. This pattern should remain through the
middle of the week, at this point in the extreme extended period
model solutions fall out of agreement, with the potential for a
weak trough to move across the region in some solutions, while
alternate solutions continue the zonal flow, and enhance dry and
warm conditions with a shortwave ridge.

Have kept forecasts in an average between these solutions for the
time being, with the expectation that models will work towards a
consensus in future runs.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the
24 hour period. Sfc winds SW15-25g30kts from 17Z-01Z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect seasonable temperatures today and
Thursday, along with dry and breezy afternoon conditions.

Friday through Sunday...Temperatures will be around normal for this
time of year. Breezy west to southwest winds are expected Friday and
Saturday, with lighter winds anticipated by Sunday.






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