Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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413
FXUS65 KFGZ 252344
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
445 PM MST MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT VERY WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AREAS
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD. AFTER A BREAK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WET
AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE DAY DEVELOPED THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA ALONG
A COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. WE
HAD NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SNOWFALL ABOVE 6500 FEET AND A FEW REPORTS
OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST...IT WILL
MOVE INTO A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS AND PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION WILL DROP
OFF CONSIDERABLY.

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. REPORTS OF BLOWING DUST ARE BECOMING MORE COMMON EAST
OF WINSLOW. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE SEEN A DIRECTION SWITCH AND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY. HEADLINED PRODUCTS LOOK GOOD AS
SCHEDULED.

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE
THROUGH ARIZONA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
POST-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD.

EXPECT QUIETER CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING WINDS AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DUE BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

THE STORM ON THURSDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND A BIT UNSTABLE. THIS STORM LOOKING LIKE IT WILL TAKE A PATH
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND SHOULD PRODUCE HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THIS STORM
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLE FOR
NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS AT 20-30 KTS GUSTING TO 40-55 KTS UNTIL 02Z...THEN
DECREASING TO 5-15 KTS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 03Z KPRC-KPAN-KSOW NORTH. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING MOST AREAS AFTER 03Z. SOUTHWEST WIND 10-20
KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR STRONGER WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, BECOMING MUCH LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AFTERNOON VENTILATION WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT EACH DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEM WILL BRING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONES
004>010-012-015-016-018-037-038.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONES
011-013-014-017-039-040.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZ FWX ZONES
111-114.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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