Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250353 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
853 PM MST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA ON CHRISTMAS DAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING BRISK WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE HIGH COUNTRY. EXPECT THE COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING...AND ARE FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TOMORROW...ON CHRISTMAS DAY. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TOMORROW AS THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. THERE MAY BE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION OVER
THE KAIBAB AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...BUT MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH.

AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT...THE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...WITH 700MB WIND
SPEEDS REACHING 50-60KTS BY SUNRISE. BEING AT OR BELOW THE
INVERSION...THESE WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD MIX WELL TO THE SURFACE IN
FAVORED AREAS...MOST NOTABLY DOWNWIND OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AND INCREASED THE WINDS ON
THE NORTH AND EAST SLOPES OF THE MOGOLLON RIM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW...WHERE GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /337 PM MST/...
TODAY`S WARMER TEMPS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE STATE CHRISTMAS DAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. AS THE COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
TRAVERSES THE STATE...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT A
WHITE CHRISTMAS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 TO 2
INCHES FROM THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE THE SYSTEM EJECTS COMPLETELY EAST OF THE STATE SATURDAY.
THOUGH DRY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THE FORECAST CONSISTS OF
CONTINUED COLD TEMPS WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP RETURNING TO THE
NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT STARTING IN THE VICINITY OF
KGCN THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH 00Z. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER
TO 3000-4000 FEET BY LATE THURSDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING ON THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BAK/KD
AVIATION.......BAK/MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF














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