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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 162156
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 PM MST SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON MONDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
THE MAIN IMPACT OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE A DRY AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE FIRE DANGER INCREASING THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA...POTENTIALLY RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HRS. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA PERSISTING THROUGH 02-03Z EAST OF A
KAYENTA...WINSLOW...SHOW LOW LINE. S/SW SFC WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS DIMINISHING AFT 02Z. SIMILAR SFC WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED MON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA HAS
DECREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR ALL BUT FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THERE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A DRYING
TREND WILL WORK WEST TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOWERING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY EACH AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MODERATE TO HIGH
HAINES INDICES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST U.S. BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO
ARIZONA WHILE VERY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS BY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF