Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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334
FXUS65 KFGZ 021706
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1006 AM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER WEATHER
SYSTEM DELIVERS WINDY...COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...TODAY...MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TODAY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...AND THAT WAS TO BETTER CAPTURE CLOUD COVER...AND
CHANGE FROM CHANCE WORDING TO CATEGORICAL WORDING. CLOUD COVER IS
FORECAST TO CHANGE RAPIDLY TODAY...AS AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND
AMPLE MOISTURE BEGIN TO DEVELOP CONVECTIVE CLOUDS.

WE ARE STILL ON TRACK AGAIN TODAY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ALONG WITH ISOLATED AFTER THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TO
SUPPORT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE ARE EVALUATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN ON
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY MORNING AND IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ATMOSPHERE IS
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST...UP SLOPE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN...MONITORING THIS FACTOR AND MAY BE PROVIDING UPDATES IN
THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /347 AM MST/...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN
THE MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN AZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL
ACT ON RESIDING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SNOW
LEVELS TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH THE ONLY SNOW
OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN TOPS.

DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY WITH THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR A LINGERING SHOWER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK MIDWEEK ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING 20
TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN THE LOW
IMPACTING THE SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH COOL, WINDY,
AND SHOWERY WEATHER MAKING A RETURN BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
IS NOT AS HIGH. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE LOW ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MULTIPLE DAYS OF CONVECTIVE RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW OVER THE
WEEKEND. MORE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...TIL 02Z TUES...BKN-OVC CU/SC WITH
SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR. ALL AREAS BECOMING VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET.
LIGHT WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT
FOR LIGHT CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH DAY.
ANOTHER STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC/MCS
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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