Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 141626

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
923 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry, but cloudy conditions early today.
Better chances for rain and high elevation snowfall will return
Wednesday night, lasting through Thursday. Drier and warmer
conditions are expected to develop Friday and into the weekend.


No significant changes to the forecast this morning as the next
weather system looks to impact the area later today and overnight
into tomorrow. Models are currently underplaying the western
extent of the moisture plume currently visible on radar outside of

If this precipitation is more indicative of a wider moisture
plume, precipitation may not be limited to the Eastern Mogollon
Rim and White Mountains at the onset of precipitation this

If precipitation become more widespread to the west, additional
updates may need to occur before the scheduled forecast package.


.PREV DISCUSSION /403 AM MST/... Low pressure centered off the
southern California coast will move inland later today, then
across AZ into Thursday. This will lead to increasing chances for
rain and high elevation snow showers by this afternoon and into
Thursday across much of the northland, along with gusty southwest
winds today. Showers are expected to be most numerous from
Flagstaff to the south and east, with more widely scattered
coverage elsewhere. Up to a couple inches of snow will be possible
over the Mogollon Rim, with heavier amounts forecast across the
White Mountains above 8000 feet.

A break in the weather is expected Friday into the weekend, though
there are indications in the models for another trough moving
toward the state from the north early next week. Stay tuned.


.AVIATION...For the 18z Package...VFR coverage to decrease this
afternoon as a weakening upper level low to move across the area
tonight. Expect areas of MVFR and local IFR with -shra -shsn to
expand from SW to NE aft 20Z Wednesday. Southwest winds 15-25 kts
gusts to 35 kts through 02z Thu decreasing to 10-20 kt. Aviation
discussion not updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER... A period of mostly dry weather can be expected for
Wednesday morning. Low pressure off the coast of southern California
will begin its return Wednesday through the day bringing more rain
and snow showers starting Wednesday afternoon and ending by late
Thursday. Temperatures will be around normal with gusty southwest
winds through Thursday afternoon becoming more westerly in the

Saturday through Monday...Warmer and drier conditions return for the
weekend under west to northwesterly flow. By Monday, another chance
for showers returns as the next trough of low pressure approaches.






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