Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 271638

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
940 AM MST TUE SEP 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system currently over Baja Mexico will
gradually move northward across Arizona over the next few days.
Expect increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms across
northern Arizona through Thursday then decreasing on Friday. Dry air
is forecast to move in over the weekend. Near normal temperatures
will continue.


Short term forecast is in good shape with no updates planned.

.PREV DISCUSSION 310 AM...A weak low centered over
Baja California this morning will gradually move northward across
Arizona over the next few days. For Today...The flow aloft will
gradually shift to a more moist southerly direction. The best
combination of moisture and upward motion will be from about the
Mogollon Rim southward where the best chance for showers and
thunderstorms will reside.

Overnight...Moisture and upward motion associated with the Baja
low will continue to move northward with the chance for showers
spreading northward to the Utah/Arizona border.

For Wednesday through Friday...Moisture will remain across northern
Arizona. In association with the northward moving low and general
large-scale upward motion the potential for additional showers
and thunderstorms will continue. The best chance for
thunderstorms will generally be from the afternoon into the early
evening hours in response to peak daytime heating and instability.

From Saturday into early next week...The models are promising a
drier push of air. If this pattern develops expect mild daytime
temperatures, mainly clear skies and locally breezy conditions. In
other words, fall weather.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA with MVFR
conditions possible in heavier storms moving moving northward across
northern Arizona through the period. Areas north of a KSGU-KRQE line
Til 06z VFR with sct-bkn150-200. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.





PUBLIC...DL McCollum

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