Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 172204
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
304 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will move across northern Arizona
tonight, with scattered light showers possible this evening.
Cold temperatures are in store through Sunday morning. Dry and
warmer weather returns for next week with light winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The subtropical jet and moisture band over the state this morning
was shifting southward this afternoon, with partly sunny skies
noted north of a line from Seligman through Kayenta. Scattered
light rain showers to persist through this afternoon for areas
south of I-40. Todays wind advisory will continue til 6 pm as
several sites have met criteria, clearing skies and the frontal
approach should improve the downward mixing of winds.

The cold front was just north of Bryce Canyon at 3 pm. Cloud
cover and shower chances to increase again across the northeast
quarter of the state this evening as the front makes its way
through.

Very little change in the forecast model output from Saturday
through next Friday. For this weekend, dry weather returns. Breezy
northeast winds to develop early Saturday morning along and south
fo the Mogollon Rim. Max temps Saturday and min temps Sunday
morning could be the lowest so far this season.

For the work week, dry weather, light winds and a warming trend
return. Progs are bringing a shortwave disturbance across the Four
corners area in the Monday/ early Tuesday time frame. At this
time it looks like increasing mid and high level clouds,
especially in the northeast part of the state. Some of the gfs
ensembles are suggesting light shower activity, but will need to
see a larger number of solutions with qpf before adding a slight
chance.

Progs in good agreement from Wednesday through Friday building a
very warm ridge over the desert southwest. Near record warm temps
are not out of the question late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Windy conditions will persist
through around 01Z, generally southwest at 15-25kts gusting 30-
40kts. Winds will decrease through the evening and become light
northerly Saturday behind a cold front. Scattered -SHRA ending by
00-01Z this evening from KFLG south and east. Additional showers
possible along the cold front along/north of KGCN-KRQE line 02Z-08Z.
CIGS 3-5kft agl possible in showers with otherwise VFR conditions
prevailing through Saturday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty southwest winds will gradually diminish this
evening, then shift to north or northeast Saturday behind a
cold front. A few showers are possible through this evening along
the front, then much drier air will arrive Saturday and Sunday with
low RH values. Light winds and clear skies are expected Sunday with
warmer temperatures.

Monday through Wednesday...Generally light winds and dry conditions
expected as high pressure builds. Temperatures gradually increase
each day, reaching well above average values by Tuesday and
Wednesday. A disturbance passing north of the state will bring
increasing clouds Monday with otherwise mostly clear skies.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST
this evening FOR AZZ004>007-009>017-039-040.&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff



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