Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 241140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
440 AM MST Mon Oct 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered showers and thundertorms to move from
west to east today as low pressure moves through the northern Great
Basin. Dry and warmer condtions will develop on Tuesday, lasting
through the end of the week and into next weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Much of the forcing and cooler air aloft remains west
of Arizona early this morning. A fairly persistent line of showers
and thunderstorms is still active between Las Vegas and Tonopah with
additional activity approaching the SOCAL coastline. A few showers
formed over western Yavapai and Coconino counties overnight as mid-
level moisture increased, but these are now moving out of the CWA.

A jet streak will move into western Arizona later today and this
evening, clearly seen southwest of San Diego. This may provide some
additional forcing and along with daytime instability, we expect
shower coverage to increase as the moisture plume shifts east. Model
trends have been for less activity and pops have followed this trend.
However, enough ingredients exist to keep chance pops over most of
the central and western zones.

Mush drier and stable air trails this trough Tuesday, with above
normal hghts and warm conditions lasting through the remainder of
the week and into next weekend. A weak trough to our north on Friday
was previously thought to have enough to produce some showers, but
this trajectory keeps moving north and aside from some southwest
breezes, any shower activity after today is looking unlikely.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z forecast...Sct SHRA/TSRA will develop
and spread east through the day today, continuing through this
evening. The most likely terminals affected by MVFR conditions are
KFLG and KGCN for lower CIGS. Locally heavy rain producing MVFR/IFR
possible in stronger TSRA. Southwest winds 15-25 kts from 18Z-01Z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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