Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280427
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 PM MST WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL STILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS EVENING.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND NO PRECIPITATION.

&&
.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA IS DRY ABOVE
20KFT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...MOISTURE BELOW 20KFT...AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT ARE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
MOGOLLON RIM. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LCR VALLEY. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
FROM THESE SHOWERS AND THEY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THIS TREND COVERED WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /325 PM MST/...INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOSTLY ISOLATED AND WEAK.
HOWEVER...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES STILL INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. THIS WAS OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON
BY A PERSISTENT STRONG STORM CELL OVER THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. BELIEVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING STRONG TO DEVELOP
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA WHERE SHEAR IS GREATEST.

A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS THURSDAY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE
RESULTS IN A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT KEEPS ANY
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A BROAD
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKY
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE
NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS DEVELOPING. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AROUND 07Z. AFTER 07Z...CLEARING SKIES.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/MCS
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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