Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 221047

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
347 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect breezy winds this afternoon followed by much
colder temperatures Thursday as a passing cold front moves through
the area. A few light showers will be possible from Flagstaff
north. An unsettled pattern will develop late in the weekend and
early next week, with better chances for rain and snow.


.DISCUSSION...Upper level clouds are streaming across the
northwestern half of the state this morning with a trough
positioned over the west coast resulting in southwest flow over
Arizona. The base of the trough (currently off the Pacific coast)
will make its way into the southern Great Basin by this evening,
tightening pressure gradients and causing an increase in wind
speeds across the forecast area today. The greatest increase is
anticipated generally from I-40 north to the Utah state line where
gusts will reach 40-45 mph and a Wind Advisory has been issued.
The one caveat is cloud cover this afternoon which is expected to
increase through the day and could hamper the strongest gusts from
reaching the surface.

The trough will push a cold front through Arizona tonight keeping
breezy conditions going through the overnight hours. Very minimal
precipitation impacts are anticipated with the front as any
showers will remain isolated.

Confidence is increasing in the overall pattern turning wetter
again as early as Sunday and lasting into Tuesday as a long wave
trough moves through the western US. Forecast models are in fair
agreement with showers starting Sunday and the potential for
heavier precipitation from Monday into Tuesday when a strong cold
front moves through Arizona. Initial snow impacts look to remain
mostly above 6000-6500 feet through Monday, with snow levels
falling below 6000 feet Tuesday. Still 6 to 7 days out and too
early to determine details, but there is potential for a multi-
day precipitation event.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hours. Surface humidity will bring low CIGS (AOB
BKN010) to KGCN and KFLG through around 17Z. Gusty southwest
surface winds of 20-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts will develop by
18Z and will continue into mid evening. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM MST
this evening FOR AZZ004-006-007-009>013-039-040.




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