Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260429
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
929 PM MST TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ELEVATED COVERAGE FOR HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. LOOK FOR A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE STATE HAS PRODUCED
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THIS EVENING AND
STRATIFORM SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...HAIL AND PERIODS OF ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE MAIN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
MOVE SOUTH OVER MEXICO BLOCKING OUR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP AND
ALLOWING DRIER PACIFIC AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY
WILL BE OUR TRANSITION DAY AS A GRADUAL DRYING TREND BEGINS WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. FRIDAY ONWARD WILL BE NOTICEABLY
DRIER WITH A BREAK IN THE MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS. ONE EXCEPTION TO
THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION WHERE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH DAY.


&&

.AVIATION...DEEP MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH LAND TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HAIL AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH NEAR
THE STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN
AVIATION...BOHLIN


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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