Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241141
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
430 AM MST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST REGION. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BEHIND A CHRISTMAS
DAY COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE HIGH
COUNTRY. THIS BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL START ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LAST
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEANWHILE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY WEAKENING WIND SPEEDS AND BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
ARIZONA THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS RIDGE WILL FEEL
MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE
LIGHTER WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

BY CHRISTMAS DAY...A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. PORTIONS OF THE
HIGH COUNTRY WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT A WHITE CHRISTMAS WITH LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ON THE GROUND.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLD AND UNSETTLED AIR WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FLURRIES ON FRIDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE NORTH WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE AIR MASS TEMPERATURE FORECAST
BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. AS A RESULT OF THIS MODEL UNCERTAINTY
RATHER LARGE ADJUSTMENTS IN OUR FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY BE NEEDED
AS THIS TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST 10-15KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AGAIN BY 02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....BOHLIN
AVIATION...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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