Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 190459

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1000 PM MST WED MAY 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A drying trend will continue on Thursday with a few
showers lingering over the mountain areas with the highest
precipitation chances in the White Mountains region. Another Pacific
low will move into the western states on Friday causing strong and
gusty southwesterly winds to develop across Arizona. These strong
southwesterly winds will continue into Saturday evening. Dry
conditions are expected through the middle of next week.

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms diminished rapidly after
sunset this evening. Have updated forecast to reduce pops this
evening and overnight. The forecast is still on track after tonight.



The low pressure center responsible for the shower activity over
the past two days will move through eastern Arizona and into New
Mexico later this evening. The best dynamic lift on the eastern
side of this low will also move eastward with the system allowing
shower activity to diminish in the overnight hours. By Thursday, a
drying trend begins as the low moves into Texas and a weak ridge
of high pressure settles in over the state. Enough moisture and
instability will be available for a few lingering showers and
thunderstorms in central and eastern Arizona on Thursday
afternoon. The highest chances for measurable rainfall are forecast
across the White Mountains region.

On Friday and Saturday, another seasonably deep low moves into
the western states. This system will remain too far north of
Arizona to produce any shower activity. Instead of showers we are
forecasting strong and gusty southwesterly winds starting on
Friday. These gusty winds will continue to howl through Friday
night although at a lower intensity compared to the afternoon
hours. Wind speeds will ramp up yet again by mid Saturday morning
and lasting through early evening. We continue to have high
confidence that wind gusts on Friday and Saturday day periods will
exceed our wind advisory thresholds. However we will need to wait
another 24 hours before issuing any advisory wind products for
this time period.

Dry conditions with breezy winds are forecast to continue through
the middle of next week with no chance for significant rainfall.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Only isolated showers expected
through 18z. Isolated thunderstorms developing after 18Z until
around 02Z. Look for MVFR conditions and small hail with any
stronger storms. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions over the next 24
hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Lingering moisture will result in isolated showers
and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, most numerous along the
Arizona/New Mexico border. Otherwise, warmer and a bit drier. On
Friday, a low pressure system dips across northern Nevada. The net
result will be windy conditions for northern Arizona on Friday.
Relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical fire
weather levels.

Saturday through Monday...Dry weather with gusty south to southwest
winds across northern Arizona.






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