Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS65 KFGZ 161118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
335 AM MST Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Look for warm temperatures and dry conditions through
Tuesday with just a few higher level clouds sneaking across
northern Arizona. For Wednesday and Thursday a weak weather
disturbance will combine with increased moisture for partly to
mostly cloudy skies along with a few sprinkles over the higher
terrain. Another passing disturbance will produce breezy
conditions and cooler temperatures on Friday and Saturday.


.DISCUSSION...A bit of an unsettled weather pattern over the
coming week. Nothing major, just a few disturbances along the way
to bring at various times a slight chance of showers, cooler
temperatures and windy conditions.

For today and Tuesday...High pressure centered over northern
Mexico will dominate the weather across northern Arizona. Look
for high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal with dry
conditions. A few high levels clouds will sneak across northern
Arizona on Tuesday.

On Wednesday and Thursday...A weak weather disturbance and
associated jet max will move across Arizona. Moisture, which can
be seen just off the California coast in morning infrared imagery,
will move across Arizona. This in combination with weak upward
motion will produce a few sprinkles Wednesday afternoon and
evening. The air mass even become a bit unstable by Thursday with
a slight chance of thunderstorms. Otherwise, partly to mostly
cloudy skies with slightly cooler daytime temperatures.

From Friday onward...A stronger shortwave trough will move across
Arizona on Friday and Saturday. The slight chance of showers will
continue on Friday but end by Saturday as drier air moves in. The
trough will induce gusty southwest winds, likely in the 20 to 30
mph range, from the Mogollon Rim northward. Cooler with
temperatures dipping to near normal levels. High pressure could
return by late in the weekend for warming temperatures.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions and light sfc
winds will prevail over northern Arizona through 12z Tues.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and very dry conditions will continue through
Tuesday. 20 foot and mixing layer winds at less than 10 mph through
Tuesday. Ventilation looks good at best for a few hours over the
high terrain, valley areas with poor ventilation through at least

Wednesday through Friday...Increasing mid and high level moisture
will bring cloud cover to all and a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the high country through Thursday. 20 foot and
mixing layer winds to remain light through Thursday. 20 foot winds
should become light southwest Thursday night and then increase
Friday as a cold front moves through the Great Basin.






For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.