Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261654
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
954 AM MST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT A RETURN
TO MORE OF A TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN AZ APPEARS IN STORE TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN SHORT-TERM
FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /425 AM MST/...A WEAK PUSH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PUSH IS DUE TO CONVECTION
AHEAD OF AN EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAJA AND
INCREASING SSW FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN.
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS ABOVE 600MB AND AN UNUSUALLY DRY LAYER
BELOW 700MB WILL HAMPER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY. AGAIN...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.

AFTER TODAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE OVER MONDAY AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH MOVES TO OUR NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER NEW MEXICO FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RETURN ARIZONA TO A NORMAL
MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. ISO-SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KPAN-
KINW-KCEZ. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM PAYSON
TO THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY AND MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT LOCALLY BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
AT TIMES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED WITH AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WITHIN
SEASONABLY NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/PETERSON
AVIATION...AT
FIRE WEATHER...MAS/AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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