Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 181721
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1021 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE HAVE GENERALLY MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND
WILL NOT PLAY A ROLE IN NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER TODAY. A
LINGERING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA...AND WILL PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST...EXITING THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING. LINGERING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...A TONGUE OF HIGH PW POSITIONED ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY THAT MAY HELP GET CONVECTION GOING IN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO
COUNTIES. INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COULD LEAD TO
STRONGER STORMS THERE. NOT QUITE SURE ABOUT COVERAGE THOUGH...AS
HI RES MODELS TEND TO KEEP COVERAGE QUITE LIMITED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /323 AM MST/...
MOISTURE PROFILES THIN OUT ON FRIDAY BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. A CLOSED LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY AND INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. THE INTERACTION OF
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE DRAWN NORTH ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE ORGANIZED STORMS
AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES. A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

A DEEPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES BY
THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
LEAVE AND AN ACTIVE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC COULD ENHANCE FURTHER
MOISTURE SURGES. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST UNTIL THE
DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS CLOSEST TO THE STRONGER
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE KAIBAB AND COCONINO PLATEAUS...
YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISHING BETWEEN
1-3Z FRIDAY AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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