Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190338
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
835 PM MST MON MAY 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE UTAH BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO RETURN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA. EXPECT MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY
LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST PRECIPITATION TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE
TOUCHED UP TO DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER TONIGHT...BUT
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER UPDATES
PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /310 PM MST/...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY MOVING
EAST INTO WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO GENERATE DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THESE
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. FOR TUESDAY...LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF
THE GRAND CANYON AND HIGHWAY 160.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

BY FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF I-17 AND HIGHWAY
89. AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF ARIZONA THROUGH 12Z...WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBYS NEAR THE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZES DURING THE
AFTERNOONS ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5-7 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SW WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. EXPECT INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BAK
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...AT



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