Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 262305
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
405 PM MST FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ON SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY FROM FLAGSTAFF SOUTHEASTWARD. ON
SUNDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...AS WELL
AS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WORK
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOSTLY CAPPED TODAY
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NAVAJO, SOUTHERN APACHE AND NORTHERN
GILA COUNTIES. THESE STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN SHORT-LIVED,
HOWEVER, RADAR IMAGERY REVEALED A WEAKLY ROTATING STORM IN
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY THAT LIKELY PRODUCED GREATER THAN 1 INCH
SIZED HAIL. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 DEGREES MEASURED AT THE AIRPORT IN
FLAGSTAFF.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN, ON SATURDAY, GRADUALLY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM
REGIONS. BY SUNDAY, GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
WORK WEEK RESULTING IN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. OTHERWISE...-SHRA/-
TSRA WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM THE WHITE MTNS WESTWARD TOWARD GILA
COUNTY THROUGH 03-04Z. THE MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA TO INITIATE IN THE SAME
AREAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION
WESTWARD TOWARD GILA COUNTY WITH OTHERWISE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD OVER ALL
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DECREASING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. HAINES INDICES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MODERATE TO
HIGH RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...AT
FIRE WEATHER...AT


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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