Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 230359

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
859 PM MST Sat Apr 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and warm weather through Tuesday. Gusty
afternoon winds will return starting Sunday and persist through
the week as a series of weather disturbances brush Arizona. The
stronger of these systems will bring a cooling trend starting
Wednesday and a slight chance of showers.


.UPDATE...No big forecast updates needed this evening as the short
term forecast is handled well. Few to scattered high level cirrus
will move across the state overnight as high pressure aloft moves


.PREV DISCUSSION /324 PM MST/...Made few changes to the forecast
through Tuesday night. Fair weather is expected tonight. On
Sunday, we return to west southwest flow aloft, and will have a
disturbance crossing the Great Basin. Expect gusty SW surface
winds for the afternoon, sustained at 15-30 mph with gusts to 40
mph. Fastest speeds are expected along and north of the Mogollon
Rim and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of this area
Sunday afternoon.

Monday through Tuesday Night. Westerly flow aloft will keep dry
and warm weather in the forecast through Tuesday. Afternoon winds
to persist, with gusts from 25 to 40 mph, the fastest gusts
across Navajo and Apache counties. The wind direction should be SW
on Monday and then veering towards westerly on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Saturday. Operational models begin to diverge
for this time frame. The large picture still has a broad trough
of low pressure across the Great Basin, and a cold front aligned
west to east and sitting across southern Utah. Models still show
Wednesday afternoon and night as having the best chance for
precipitation, though instability is now gone on the 12z runs.
Highest precip chances initially are across the northeast quarter
of the state and along the Utah state line. From Thursday onward
the model consenus is for west northwest flow aloft and cooler
temperatures. Slight chances of showers to remain in Apache county
through Friday while Yavapai county remains dry for the next 7
days. The closed low shown by the operational GFS over the 4
corners on Friday is being discounted for now.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...VFR conditions under variable
high clouds are expected over the next 24 hours. Light and
variable winds 10KT or less through 15Z Sunday...becoming
southwest and gradually increasing to 15-25KT with gusts 30-35KT
by Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...A passing trough will cause strong southwest
winds with low humidity for most locations along and north of the
Mogollon Rim on Sunday, and a Red Flag Warning has been issued.
Strong winds will continue Monday for most areas along and northeast
of the Mogollon Rim where a Fire Weather Watch has been issued.

Tuesday through Thursday...Occasionally windy conditions will
continue with a chance of showers Wednesday into Thursday in
northeast Arizona. Daytime humidity is forecast to remain above
critical thresholds through the period.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MST
Sunday FOR AZZ104-106-107-109-111>116-139-140.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
FOR AZZ109>116-139-140.




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