Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190311
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
811 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING
TO A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR...WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES
TO DRAW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA.
ISOLATED...LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HI-
RES MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.

FOR TOMORROW...HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND IN THE
BLACK MESA AREA. CHANCES HAVE NOT BEEN INCREASED MUCH...BUT HAVE
EXPANDED THE AREA OF SCATTERED COVERAGE A BIT. MID-LEVEL COOLING
WILL LEAD TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH DEW
POINTS FORECAST TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES...WE SHOULD SEE BETTER
COVERAGE TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...
THE SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIF
WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF ARIZONA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. RAINFALL WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO ARIZONA
BY TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FORECAST MODELS...ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS...ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS A REMINDER...THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN
ERNEST...WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AND ALLOW SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED
BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGES...PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA TO CONTINUE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. AFTER 18Z SUN...SCT -SHRA AND ISO -TSRA
WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KFLG-KRQE. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/BAK
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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