Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 200439

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
939 PM MST FRI AUG 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast each
afternoon through the first half of next week, primarily over the
higher terrain. A drying trend could commence by Wednesday of next
week. Temperatures will generally be near normal through the


.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has quickly decreased over the
last hour. At this point, mostly light shower activity and a few
moderately strong outflow boundaries persist across portions of
Coconino, Yavapai and northern Gila counties. Storm activity will
continue to decrease over the next couple of hours, with only very
low chances for precipitation in the forecast after midnight.

Made a few forecast updates to match current trends, namely to
decrease chances for showers over northeast Arizona and in the
White Mountains.


.PREV DISCUSSION /306 PM MST/...The latest models prog not much
change in the upper pattern through Monday. Lingering moisture and
instability should allow for afternoon thunderstorms to develop
along the higher terrain of northern Arizona. Afternoon
thunderstorms should diminish during the evening hours.

The medium range models prog an upper trough to pivot across
northern Arizona Tuesday. This will maintain thunderstorm chances
across the area. However, synoptic subsidence in the wake of the
trough could lead to a drying trend Wednesday through Friday. For
now continued to forecast chance POPS Wed-Fri. Would like to see
better model to model and run to run consistency before removing
POPS from said period.


.AVIATION...For the 00z package...Shower activity is currently on
the decrease across northern Arizona. Expect VFR conditions to
persist overnight. After 18z Saturday, another round of showers
and thunderstorms is forecast. MVFR conditions in heavy rainfall
and erratic, gusty winds are possible in the vicinity of stronger
storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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