Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 251623

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
923 AM MST SUN SEP 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and mild conditions to persist today, with
locally gusty northeast winds. Starting Monday, low pressure
moving in from Mexico will bring in more moisture resulting in a
chance for showers and thunderstorms for much of next week.


.DISCUSSION...High pressure across northeastern Arizona and low
pressure over southwestern Arizona created a tight pressure gradient
primarily across central Arizona this morning. Breezy to windy
conditions are being observed across the Mogollon Rim and points
south as a result. The RAWS site 7 SSE of Crown King reported a
gust of 62 mph at 4:48 am MST and the RAWS site 4 S of Yarnell
report a gust of 48 mph at 8:01 am MST.

The pressure gradient is forecast to weaken somewhat through the
day as high pressure to the northeast weakens. However, breezy to
windy conditions will continue through the day for most spots.

Only made minor modifications to the wind/temp/dewpoint grids
based on current obs/trends. The remaining forecast elements are
in good shape. The updated products have been sent.


.PREV DISCUSSION /259 AM MST/...Low pressure aloft was beginning
to spin up over northwest Mexico early this morning as per water
vapor satellite imagery. At the same time, high pressure was
building in over California and Nevada also evident in the water
vapor imagery. The overall setup with high pressure to the
northwest and low pressure to the south will result in dry
conditions and locally gusty northeast to east winds today and
tonight, especially along the Mogollon Rim and locations south.
Otherwise, look for seasonable temperatures and mainly clear

From Monday onward...The weak low over northwest portions of
Mexico will slowly wobble to a position over the
California/Arizona border before being absorbed by the general
flow and moving to the northeast. In response to the position of
the low locally gusty east and then southeast winds will develop
on Monday and Tuesday becoming south to southwest starting
Wednesday as the low moves out of the area. The southeast flow
from Monday night into Tuesday will draw moisture across Arizona.
The increasing moisture will combine with weak upward motion
forced by a passing jet stream max to produce a decent shot at
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Moisture will then linger on
Wednesday and for much of the week with at least a slight chance
of showers and storms continuing. Otherwise, seasonable
temperatures will remain under partly to mostly cloudy skies.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions with mostly
clear skies through the 24hr TAF period. Gusty north to
northeasterly winds will continue through the afternoon. While
some locations will turn calm again tonight, many locations
(especially along and south of the Mogollon Rim) will continue to
experience N-NE gusts through the night. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.






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