Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 141206

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
506 AM MST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A Pacific storm system will bring unsettled weather to
northern Arizona through Monday. Shower chances increase across
the area today and tonight, then slowly decrease from west to
east through Monday. Fair weather should return on Tuesday.


.DISCUSSION...Rain and snow showers continue to push into
northern Arizona from the south as moisture wraps around a low
currently positioned off the coast of northern Baja. This low is
forecast to move eastward through northern Mexico today,
continuing chances for showers across the area. The best chances
for showers are forecast along and south of the Mogollon Rim,
roughly from Flagstaff eastward to the White Mountains. In
addition, some weak instability may combine with forcing from the
low to produce a few thunderstorms from the Mogollon Rim

For today, snow levels are expected to range from 6000 to 6500
feet along the Arizona/Utah border, to around 7500 feet near
Flagstaff, and above 8500 feet in the White Mountains. Late
Saturday night, snow levels may briefly drop below 7000 feet in
the Flagstaff area, resulting in some light snow accumulations

On Sunday, precipitation begins to slowly taper off as the low
moves into New Mexico. The best chances for showers will be over
higher terrain from Flagstaff eastward. Snow levels are forecast
to be in the 7000 to 7500 foot range across the majority of
northern Arizona. Mainly slight chances for showers are forecast
on Monday.

Expect clearing skies on Tuesday and near average daytime
temperatures by Wednesday. Longer term model forecasts continue to
predict the return of an active weather pattern as early as
Thursday, with the potential for unsettled weather through next


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect scattered to numerous
rain and mountain snow showers over the next 24 hrs producing areas
of MVFR to IFR conditions. Snow levels will range from around 6000
ft MSL near the UT border to around 8500 ft MSL in the White
Mountains region. Thunder is also possible this afternoon generally
from KFLG-KSOW south. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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