Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 212211

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
310 PM MST Fri Jul 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect very active monsoon conditions for the next
several days. Local heavy rainfall capable of producing flash
flooding remains possible from stronger storms.


.Discussion...Another active day across northern Arizona today.
Storms are generally moving from northwest to southeast and
producing locally heavy rain and flooding issue--especially over
recent fire scars. A few storms also show (on radar) indications of
one inch or larger hail.

Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage after dark
tonight. However, other storms/storm clusters could develop
overnight. HRRR is showing the Northeast and White Mountains as the
favored areas for development overnight.

For Saturday and Sunday...The forecast models are still insisting
that a northeast to southwest flow sets up across Arizona in
response to high pressure becoming centered over
Nevada/Utah/Arizona. The described flow pattern will deliver a drier
air mass to the northeast corner of Arizona with a decrease in
shower and storm activity. From the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
southward and across central Arizona monsoon moisture will remain
entrenched with a good chance of showers and storms each day.

From Monday onward...Moisture will remain in place with the threat
for daily showers and thunderstorms continuing.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect scattered to numerous SHRA
and TSRA lasting into early evening, with isolated +TSRA. MVFR/IFR
in the stronger storms. Shower and thunderstorm coverage gradually
decreasing after 03Z. Other thunderstorm development is also
possible through the night. More storms are expected again after 17Z
Saturday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Active monsoon conditions will continue through
Saturday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Heavy
rain and gusty winds will remain the primary impact. Expect near
average temperatures across the area.

Monday through Wednesday...Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue, favoring the Mogollon Rim southward Sunday,
then all of northern Arizona Monday and Tuesday.






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