Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261136
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
436 AM MST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA TODAY. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
A POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
LOOK FOR A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
EVENING IS LOCATED NEAR THE AZ/UT BORDER THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST ARIZONA HELPING TO KICK OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST COCONINO COUNTY. WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING OVER THE
REGION TODAY WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD
BE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING ONCE AGAIN TODAY DUE TO THE
ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS. SLIGHT DRYING DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NORTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF WITH LOWERING STORM CHANCES. BETTER CHANCES
REMAIN FROM FLAGSTAFF INTO EASTERN ARIZONA.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA BETWEEN A WEST COAST TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. WHILE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE, MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF A PAYSON TO WINDOW
ROCK LINE. KEPT A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE WHITE MTNS AND VICINITY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD
AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER. AFTER 17Z
WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS...AS
WELL AS ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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