Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 170356
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
856 PM MST WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT WARM AND DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY. THEN...A PASSING WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
DROP IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
WITH DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PERSISTING. SIGNIFICANT
SHORT-TERM UPDATES ARE UNLIKELY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /244 PM MST/...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT REGIONS OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE TONIGHT. BEHIND
THE TROUGH...TRANSITORY RIDGING WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FOR SHOWERS...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL.

SUNDAY ONWARD...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS AMONG THE LONGER TERM
MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TIMING AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM.
AS SUCH...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-13 KTS AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
THURSDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON BREEZES.
ON FRIDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS. WETTING RAIN IS NOT LIKELY TO BE
WIDESPREAD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/RR
AVIATION.......KD
FIRE WEATHER...DJO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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