Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 230328
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  OTHERWISE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
TUESDAY MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAYS.
AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP WEDNESDAY...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
8 PM SFC OBS SHOW A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR WINDOW ROCK.
SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 300 PM...TIGHT GRADIENTS DEVELOPING OVER ARIZONA
BETWEEN A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND RIDGING OFF THE WEST
COAST ARE BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. AS
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOOK FOR INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS...MOST NOTICEABLE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF TERRAIN
FEATURES INCLUDING THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS.
SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM INCLUDING
FLAGSTAFF. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES COLDER TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DUE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. MOST
MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO TRACK THIS NEXT WAVE THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH NORTHERN AZ ON THE FAR SOUTHERN
END. DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO OUR GOING FORECAST...WHICH IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG THE RIM COUNTRY
INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF...AND 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG THE AZ/UT LINE. IT WILL TURN BREEZY AND COLDER
CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN EVEN COLDER FRIDAY IN NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
TROUGH. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY BUT REMAINING COOL...TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...TIL 12Z...LOCAL MVFR IN -SHRASN
VCNTY KRQE OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE AREA THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC WINDS
NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10-25KT GUSTS 30-40KT FASTEST WINDS ALONG AND
SOUGH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...WITH PEAK SPEEDS TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....DL JJ
AVIATION...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.