Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 121620
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST SAT APR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHERN
ARIZONA. ON SUNDAY...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING VERY GUSTY
WEST WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH NO UPDATES
ANTICIPATED.

THERE ARE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT WILL CROSS ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND.
THIS FIRST IS A CLOSED LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW TO
CROSS NRN AZ TODAY BRINGING WEAK LIFT AND COOLER AIR ALOFT. AFTER A
MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING...MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE LOW
SHOULD CONVECT PRODUCING SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS.

ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR STATE FROM THE
NORTH. FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HERE AND DEEP MIXING WILL BRING
WESTERLY  WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

BY MONDAY MORNING...GUSTY NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BLOW
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS DECREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS ARE AT ODDS WITH A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY...BREEZY...AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND MOGOLLON RIM. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF ON MONDAY WITH
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLIES EACH DAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AZ FIRE ZONES 104>107-109>114-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC..........MCCOLLUM/DL
AVIATION........BOHLIN/DB
FIRE WEATHER....DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








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