Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 221647
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
947 AM MST FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY WITH WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER TRENDING FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN YAVAPAI AND SOUTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY
THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW RAPID DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ALL OF NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING...
INCREASE POP BEFORE 18Z AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY.

&&
.PREV /347 AM MST/DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARIZONA LATER TODAY.
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NAVAJO AND
APACHE COUNTIES...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MANY
LOCATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN 12 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL...BUT GENERALLY
WEAKER...DISTURBANCES WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE MAIN LOW KEEPING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THOUGH
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
TRANSITION TO FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA W
OF A KPRC-KFLG-KPGA LINE EXPANDING TO A K0V7-KFLG-KPRC LINE THROUGH
06Z SAT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF
KFLG...INCLUDING THE KGCN AND KPGA TERMINALS. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
COULD CONTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS FROM 17Z-02Z S-SW 15-25 KT
GUSTS TO 30KT...FASTEST ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FOR TODAY...EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO ARIZONA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE
FROM KAYENTA TO PRESCOTT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WETTING
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN COCONINO
COUNTY. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FOR ALLOW A FEW HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SATURDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-40.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...DL


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