Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 180311

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
811 PM MST Mon Oct 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will persist across northern Arizona
through Sunday. A cold front will cross northern Arizona Tuesday
night causing cooler temperatures Wednesday. A strong warming
trend will develop starting Thursday, with afternoon temperatures
around 10 degrees above normal for the weekend.


.UPDATE...Clear skies are being observed across the northland this
evening with wind speeds continuing to decrease. Expect calm
weather overnight with no forecast updates needed this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/... The operational models are in
good agreement for the next seven days, with dry weather in store
for the northland through sunset Sunday.

In the short term, gusty southwest winds will continue through
sunset tonight for areas along and north of the Mogollon Rim.
Downslope winds have gusted to 48 mph at Two Guns on I-40 this

There is a cold frontal boundary currently along a line from
roughly Cedar City UT through Grand Junction. This front to move
across northern AZ Tuesday night, preceded by breezy SW winds
during the day Tuesday.

On Wednesday, a strengthening surface pressure gradient will bring
breezy north to northeast winds and cooler temps, with the
greatest amount of cooling across the northeast quarter of the
state. Breezy northeast winds to continue Weds night along and
south of the Mogollon Rim.

From Thursday through Saturday, a warm ridge of high pressure will
move slowly across the desert southwest. Max temps to start a
warming trend, with values around 10 degrees above normal for the

Sunday and Monday, the ridge aloft moves east with a return to
light southerly flow on Sunday. This flow should bring increasing
mid and high level cloud cover. The GFS ensemble and operational
ECMWF do show thicker moisture and some QPF Monday across the NW quarter
of our state and have added a sight chance of showers for next


.AVIATION...For the 06Z forecast...Look for VFR conditions over
the next 24 hours. Another round of southwest to west winds at
15-25 kts on Tuesday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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