Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 220347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
847 PM MST Sun May 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry and warm conditons this week. Breezy
to windy conditions will return to the region Thursday and Friday.


.UPDATE...No major updates were required to the ongoing forecast.
Details for the near term forecast are that a weak dry frontal
boundary moves through the area from north to south overnight
with brief northerly wind gusts up to 25 mph. It will be mostly
cloudy across the Kaibab Plateau and east to Kayenta through much
of the night with these clouds scattering out in the early
morning. Otherwise, scattered clouds and light winds for the next
24 hours across the northern Arizona region with a slight chance
of showers along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in the
afternoon and evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION...A weak wave rotating eastward across Utah is
generating isolated showers over portions of northern Arizona,
primarily near the AZ/UT border. This activity should be light and
short-lived through the evening hours. The latest HRRR progs a dry
front to sweep across Navajo Nation between 5pm-11pm this evening.
The primary effect should be a brief increase in northerly winds to
around 25 mph. Winds should diminish after midnight.

Dry conditions will continue through midweek as Pacific ridging will
advance into the western US Monday-Tuesday. The ridge then flattens
over the southwestern US Wednesday in response to low pressure in
the Pacific NW. Wednesday should be the warmest day of the week with
temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal.

Relatively cooler, dry, and windy conditions will develop Thursday
and Friday in response to weak low pressure entering southern
California. By Friday, this low pressure system could produce a
slight chance of showers along the AZ/UT border with minimum impacts.

The trough axis should be through AZ Friday night with high pressure
forecast to build in over Arizona through the Memorial Day weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions and light
winds, generally less than 10 kts, over the next 24 hours. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated high-based showers are possible this
evening across the Kaibab Plateau, then will shift to the White
Mountains on Monday. Wetting rains are not expected. Otherwise,
expect light winds, mainly dry conditions and warm temperatures
through Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Expect warm and dry conditions Wednesday.
Southwesterly winds will gradually increase Thursday and Friday with
relatively cooler conditions.






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