Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252311
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
415 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA INTO FRIDAY. A DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST ARIZONA.
A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT CLEARING AND DRYING TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALSO REBOUNDED AS MUCH AS 15
DEGREES TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON....BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NAVAJO AND HOPI NATIONS. SNOW LEVELS BE
AROUND 5500 FEET.

A STRONG AND COLD PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST FROM
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER EVEN COLDER TROUGH
POSSIBLE FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT WIND...RAIN...AND SNOW.

SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
25-35 MPH. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SW SUSTAINED 20-35
MPH AND GUSTS 35-50 MPH WITH THE FASTEST SPEEDS IN THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER FRIDAY AND THEN EXPAND AND MOVE SOUTH TO COVER MUCH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. FORECAST
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE LOW ALONG THE UTAH BORDER...AROUND
5000 FEET...THEN RISE TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 7000 FEET IN THE FLAGSTAFF AREA AND THEN
SLOWLY LOWER. THE SNOW LEVEL IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM
7300 FEET TO 7500 FEET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THEN FALL. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ARE LOOKING WET AND COLD AS THE TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SW.

A SECONDAY LOW COULD DROP DOWN OVER ARIZONA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND PRECIPITATION.

SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS AND PRECIPITATION TIMING.
SNOW LEVELS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS THIS EVENT
NEARS. THERE IS A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM INCLUDING NORTHERN GILA
COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MAJOR IMPACTS...PLEASE STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.

PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO GET YOUR WINTER TRAVEL KIT REPLENISHED...
MAKE SURE THE CAR/TRUCK HAS A FULL TANK OF GAS ETCETERA.

THE PHONE OUTAGE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY HAS ALSO
INTERRUPTED OUR OFFICE PHONE LINES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS
MOST LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
GENERALLY NORTH OF A KGCN-KINW-KSJN LINE AFTER 18Z THURSDAY WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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