Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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939
FXUS65 KFGZ 020520
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1020 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A PASSING WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM CAMP VERDE TO WINDOW ROCK. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES
EASTWARD...EXPECT CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. COLD AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY
AND GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING ROUGHLY SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM CAMP VERDE TO WINDOW ROCK. IN ADDITION, RADAR
INDICATES SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE VICINITY OF FLAGSTAFF.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /405 PM MST/...DRY...BUT COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL MAKE FOR COOL DAYS AND VERY COLD NIGHTS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK LOW TRANSITIONING
THROUGH THE STATE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THIS SOLUTION. WE HAVE ADDED A LITTLE COOLING AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO COVER THE SCENARIO. RIDGING THEN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SHRA/SHSN AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST...IMPROVING ESPECIALLY BY
EARLY TUESDAY AM WHEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH AN INCREASE TO WIND SPEEDS DURING PEAK HEATING AT MOST
LOCATIONS TUESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/PETERSON
AVIATION...SUK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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