Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 011133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
433 AM MST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry weather and continued below normal
temperatures today. On Friday, a passing weather disturbance will
cause slight chances of showers, well below normal temperatures
and breezy northwest winds. Dry and warmer weather is forecast for
the weekend, followed by a return to below normal temperatures and
increasing chances for showers by Tuesday of next week.


.DISCUSSION...For today, dry weather with continued below normal
temperatures are in store for northern Arizona, although daytime
temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday at most

On Friday, a trough deepens over the southwest United States,
eventually forming a cutoff low over or just to the south of
Arizona. Moisture remains quite limited with this system, so only
isolated showers are forecast. The best chances for precipitation
remain from Flagstaff east to the New Mexico border. Cold air will
accompany this system causing the majority of showers to fall as
light snow, although little to no accumulations are expected. In
addition, daytime temperatures on Friday will be around 10 to 15
degrees below average.

Wind speeds will increase on Friday as flow around the low causes
a breezy northeast wind to develop. Breezy winds will continue
from Friday night through Saturday, especially for locations to
the southwest of high terrain.

On Saturday, daytime temperatures warm a few degrees as a
shortwave ridge builds in from the west. Sunday will feature a
day of dry weather, relatively light winds and a brief return to
near normal temperatures.

Longer term forecast models generally agree that a deep trough
will develop over the western United States early next work week.
This will cause a return to below normal temperatures and
increasing chances for rain and snow showers during the
Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. However, significant differences
remain regarding the amount and duration of precipitation.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z forecast...VFR conditions are forecast
across northern Arizona for the next 24 hours with high clouds and
generally light winds. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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