Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 200450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
950 PM MST Sun Mar 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow aloft will deliver warm daytime
temperatures and breezy afternoon winds through Monday. On
Tuesday...a cooling trend will begin as a storm system approaches
Arizona leading to even cooler temperatures on Wednesday and
Thursday along with good chance of showers.  Dry conditions are
forecast Friday and most of Saturday with another low pressure
system possibly affecting the region Saturday night into Sunday.


.DISCUSSION...Expect periods of upper-level cloud cover throughout
the night, primarily in northwest Coconino County. The current
forecast is on track and no updates are anticipated this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION /340 PM MST/...Dry southwesterly flow aloft has
led to well above normal temperatures again this afternoon.
Winslow already smashed its record high today. Winslow reached 84
so far this afternoon. Its old record was 80 degrees set in 2004.
Flagstaff and Prescott will likely fall short of breaking their
record highs. However, northern Arizona high temperatures are
still running about 15-20 degrees above normal. Breezy conditions
and well above normal temperatures will continue through Monday.

By Tuesday, dry conditions will continue with slightly cooler
temperatures forecast ahead of an approaching low pressure
system. The net result will be breezy conditions developing again
Tuesday afternoon.

For Wednesday and Thursday, precipitation chances will gradually
spread from west to east over northern Arizona. Snow levels
Wednesday should generally remain above 8500 feet. However, snow
levels are forecast to drop to around 6500 feet by Thursday
morning as the trough axis pivots across northern Arizona. For
right now it looks like the best chance for accumulating snow
above 6500 feet will be Thursday morning with snow amounts less
than 2 inches (but much higher on the peaks). However, the models
have been trending slower and slower with this system lending a
lot of uncertainty regarding the timing of snow transition and
subsequent impacts. Stay tuned for updates.

By Friday, shortwave ridging develops over Arizona leading to a
drying and warming trend through most of Saturday. Another low
pressure system is forecast to affect the region by Saturday night
into Sunday, primarily bringing precipitation chances to
locations near the AZ/UT border. Snow levels should be around 8000


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...VFR conditions will persist
throughout the next 24 hours. Variable high clouds are expected
to increase through the period, with cumulus clouds at or above
15 kft MSL and virga developing after 18Z Monday. In addition,
expect southwest winds from 10-20 knots with gusts 20-30 knots
from 17Z Monday through 02Z Tuesday. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.






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