Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 251030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
330 AM MST WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A weak low pressure system will produce breezy to
windy conditions today in addition to isolated showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into Friday. Moisture will linger
into early next week with a very slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day. Otherwise...Warmer temperatures are in
store starting Friday and into next week as a warmer airmass
gradually filters across Arizona.


.DISCUSSION...Low pressure was centered over the central
California coast this morning, heading eastward. For today,
pressure gradients ahead of the low will result in another round
of southwest winds generally 10 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph across
northern Arizona. In addition, cooler air and a bit of additional
moisture aloft will result in a slight chance of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms over northwest Arizona.

For Thursday and Friday...The low will move across Arizona.
Nothing impressive at all but additional moisture will move
across the area with isolated high based showers and
thunderstorms each day, primarily over the mountains and with
daytime heating. Higher bases will mean gusty winds near
storms/showers even as pressure gradients weaken and general
daytime winds will be lighter.

Starting Saturday and heading into next week...An even weaker low
pressure system will move across the southwest United States.
Lingering moisture will result in a slight chance of high based showers
and thunderstorms each day. With such a weak low winds will remain
on the light side. In addition, a warmer air mass will begin to
move over Arizona with temperatures warming to normally observed
levels. In fact, model runs continue to place high pressure over
Arizona by the middle next week.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Mostly VFR conditions are expected
over northern Arizona through the forecast period. There is a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms north of a Prescott-Flagstaff-
Four Corners line. Expect generally southwest winds 15-25 kts 18Z to
02Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms for
Coconino County today, spreading to most higher elevation areas
Thursday. Breezy winds will persist today and will decrease on

Friday through Sunday...The chance of higher elevation showers and
thunderstorms lingers on Friday, then drier conditions arrive for
the weekend. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected at
this time.






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