Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 102316

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
415 PM MST Thu Aug 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a return to more typical monsoon weather
conditions through the weekend. A weak trough moving northwest by
later tonight and tomorrow may cause activity to persist into the
overnight hours.


.DISCUSSION...Decent convective coverage this afternoon, especially
over the western zones. So far, there has been enough of a cap to
keep activity from getting out of control. To the east, substantial
debris cloud that was pushed out ahead of a decaying MCS has kept
convection to a minimum.

An inverted trough that caused the MCS last night will start to
slowly move northwest tonight and north on Friday in response to
deepening low pressure over the northern Great Basin. This will mean
several active days for Arizona, probably through the weekend. Models
still showing westerly flow aloft next week, with a drying trend
becoming probable.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered showers and tstorms will
continue into the evening hours along and south of a KGCN-KFLG-KSOW
line, isolated to the north. All activity diminishing to isolated
light showers after 07z. VFR conditions overall for the period with
local MVFR/IFR conditions near heavier thunderstorms. Look for a
better chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoon moisture will spread back across Arizona as
the flow turns southerly, bringing an increasing chance of showers
and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Moisture will remain over the region with
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Temperatures will be
near to slightly below normal.






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