Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

FXUS65 KFGZ 240407

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
907 PM MST FRI SEP 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Clear and cool conditions are in store tonight with
many high elevation locations above 6500 feet expected to see
freezing temperatures by Saturday morning. Dry and slightly
warmer conditions are anticipated for the weekend. Rain chances
return early next week.


.UPDATE...Clear skies are prevailing tonight across northern
Arizona in the wake of yesterday`s cold front. The low pressure
center continues pushing northeast with dry northwest flow over
Arizona. Many locations in the high country above 6500 feet will
see freezing temperatures tonight. No forecast updates are needed
this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION /332 PM MST/...The coldest night of the next
seven is expected tonight, with early Saturday morning
temperatures supporting some frost and/or freezes in some high
elevation locations.

Expect dry weather on Saturday as Arizona is influenced by
northerly flow on the back side of the trough stretched from the
northern Plains into the southern Rockies. Late on Sunday, low
precip chances start to creep back into the forecast as the
southern portion of the trough closes off and retrogrades back
west over Sonora, Mexico by Monday morning. In addition, expect
gusty northeasterly winds from Saturday night through perhaps
Monday evening/Tuesday morning, mainly near and south of
Interstate 40. The 18Z GFS depicts the low getting picked up in
the southwesterly flow and moving across Arizona from Tuesday into
Wednesday. NAEFS ensemble members show some spread with the
movement of this low, with the 12Z mean moving the low northward
somewhat more slowly than the deterministic GFS. Relative maxima
in precip chances roughly follow the NAEFS mean.

Once the low exits the area, expect a period of largely dry
southwesterly flow and near average temperatures to round out the


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions with mostly
clear skies through Saturday. Light winds overnight becoming north 10-15
kts Saturday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.