Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 220323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
823 PM MST Tue Mar 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler temperatures are expected on Wednesday and
Thursday along with good chance of showers. Dry conditions are
forecast Friday with another low pressure system possibly
affecting the region Saturday into Sunday.


Expect increasing cloudiness overnight in advance of an
approaching storm system. Current forecast covers this
transition to a more active pattern well, and updates this
evening will likely be limited to tweaks in cloud cover for the
overnight period tonight.


.PREV DISCUSSION /312 PM MST/...An active weather pattern will
begin to impact the area and will continue through the forecast
period. Dry southwest flow will continue over the area tonight
with breezy winds diminishing after sunset. Strong winds will
increase again Wednesday with some locations nearing wind advisory
criteria. Moisture ahead of a strong cold front associated with
the upper level low will allow for some shower development
Wednesday ahead of the frontal passage Wednesday afternoon.

By Wednesday evening and early Thursday morning, the quick moving
cold front will drop snow levels to near 6500 feet. Subsequent
precipitation will have the potential to fall as snow across the
high country with 1-3 inches possible across the Mogollon Rim and
higher elevation through Thursday. Some locations may receive
higher amounts where banded precipitation develops and allows for
enhanced accumulations. Due to the warm antecedent conditions some
surfaces may see prolonged melting before accumulation develops.

By late Thursday most moisture will have moved to the west with
clearing conditions developing Friday as a induced ridge
develops between the exiting system and the next shortwave that
will impact the area Saturday evening and Sunday. This quick
moving system will have the potential to bring a reinforcing shot
of cooler air to the region, along with some moisture, mainly to
the Arizona-Utah Border region. However, confidence is decreased
due to the extended distance into the future. A third system is
expected to move into the area by the middle of next week, however
confidence over timing and location remains low.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Expect increasing clouds with
lowering CIGS Wednesday...though remaining mainly VFR into the
early afternoon. Surface winds SW 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts
during the daytime hours Wednesday as well. Showers and some
thunderstorms will develop west of a KPGA-KPRC line by the
afternoon with local MVFR possible, then spread eastward Wednesday
evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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