Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242257
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
357 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH BREEZY DAYTIME WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA HAS LARGELY MOVED INTO
NEW MEXICO. BEHIND THE LOW...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO CAUSE AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
GENERALLY EAST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE
REGION DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN US ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TO CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN BREEZE DAYTIME WINDS WITH
LITTLE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRIDAY ONWARD...THE WEATHER GETS MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN THE WEST COAST. LONGER RANGE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE. AT THIS
POINT...THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE BEGINNING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VERY GOOD CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE A WET SYSTEM WITH GOOD VAPOR
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF IT. QPF VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE ANYWHERE FROM
0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS BELOW 6000
FEET POSSIBLE. ITS TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY HARD PREDICTIONS...BUT
CERTAINLY SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE PLANNING ON TRAVELING WITHIN NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLD MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY EAST OF K0V7-KINW-KPAN LINE THROUGH 03Z. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY 06Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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