Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 151635
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 AM MST MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONGER MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING STORM COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 345 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND TUESDAY AS MODERATE LEVELS OF
MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE
AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY...CAUSING OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE
MAY INTERACT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE WEST
COAST. LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH DETAILS SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE KCMR/KFLG/KSOW. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD OR NO CELL
ACTIVITY. WILL WATCH CONDITIONS AT KSEZ...KPRC AND KGCN AS TSRA IS
POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO BE MENTIONED IN TAFS. STRONGEST
STORMS MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS.
AFTER 03Z TUE...STORM ACTIVITY DECREASING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........41 / KD
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF












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