Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 192221

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
321 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A Pacific storm system will slowly exit the state this
evening. Periods of rain and high elevation snow along with
colder temperatures will continue tonight. Expect areas of winter
driving conditions in the mountains above 6000 feet. Dry weather
and warming temperatures are forecast for Monday and Tuesday.
Another round of showers is possible Wednesday and Thursday when a
quick moving cold front is forecast to move through Arizona.



The closed low pressure system responsible for the cool and wet
condtions across the region is slowly exiting Arizona to the North
East. As it moves out of the region this evening scattered shower
activity will decrease with some residual moisture allowing for
shower formation overnight. Stream rises have been occurring
across Yavapai and Northern Gila as the recent rains make their
way through the hydrologic system. Data points are showing most
locations have already crested in response to this precipitation
with a slow receding of the waters through the next 24 hours. No
locations have been reported as exceeding their banks, and the
only significant impact appears to be road crossings of washes.
Dry conditions will develop Monday and Tuesday as an induced
shortwave ridge will move over the area and allow for temperatures
to warm back up towards seasonal values to start the work week.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday night.

At the start of the period, strong southwesterly flow will begin to
develop as northern Arizona is caught between a weakening ridge over
southwest TX/northern Mexico and a strong short wave trough just off
the US west coast. Well above average temperatures will continue
into Wednesday as southwest winds increase and become gusty. Low
precip chances are included from Wednesday night into Thursday, most
notably near and north of Interstate 40, as a strong cold front
crosses northern Arizona. Precip amounts are currently expected to
remain light as most of the moisture being advected inland by this
trough should precipitate over northern CA and the Great Basin. Much
colder air is forecast to move in behind this front, however,
with high temperatures on Thursday 15-20 degrees colder than those
expected on Wednesday.

Temperatures near to slightly below average and dry conditions are
forecast for Friday and Saturday as northern Arizona is influenced
by zonal flow aloft. The next chance for widespread precipitation is
late next weekend. There is still plenty of spread regarding the
depth and track of next weekend`s trough, but expect snow levels to
be lower than they were with the event we just observed.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered showers will continue
to produce MVFR/IFR conditions through the early evening hours
tonight. Snow levels will range from 6000 to 7000 feet. Showers
will decrease over northern Arizona after 03Z Monday. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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