Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301650
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE DAY TO THE
REGION TODAY...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH STORM ACTIVITY EASTWARD ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIMITING STORMS TO THE FAR
EASTERN BORDER BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA. SOME PATCHES OF DENSE CUMULIFORM CLOUD ARE PRESENT. THIS
IS LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND OROGRAPHICS, AND FORCING FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

OBSERVED DUE POINTS REVEAL SURFACE MOISTURE IS UP A BIT SINCE THIS
TIME YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHEAST ARIZONA. IN GENERAL,
DEW POINTS FROM THE UPPER 40`S TO THE LOW 60`S HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THE GREATEST VALUES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOW
DESERTS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM TODAY. MODIFIED OBSERVED AND FORECAST
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM FLAGSTAFF PREDICT THAT AROUND 600 J/KG
OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOGOLLON RIM. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL LIEKLY DEVELOP
ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY - WHERE THE GREATEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDES. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT LOW
TODAY, WITH 15 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED. STORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS.

THIS MORNINGS HI-RES MODEL RUNS GENERALLY AGREE THAT TODAY WILL BE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE
ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

IN TERMS OF UPDATES, ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MADE FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /320 AM MST/...HIGHER PW VALUES AS WELL AS
IMPROVED DYNAMICS AND SHEAR WILL COME TOGETHER THIS
AFTERNOON...DELIVERING A FAR GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WHEN COMPARED TO SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ON
MONDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST STORM POTENTIAL SHIFTING ROUGHLY TO A
LINE FROM I-17 EASTWARD.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FEATURES STEADILY DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE TO THE EASTERN
BORDER BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL
COME COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR
NORTH...ALONG WITH GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT INCREASING
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
CIG/IFR VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. STORM MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. COVERAGE DIMINISHING AFT 03Z MONDAY...WITH
ISOLD - SHRA THEREAFTER. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/BOHLIN
AVIATION...BAK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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