Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 170407

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
907 PM MST TUE AUG 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A low to mid grade monsoon weather pattern is forecast
to continue with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will favor the higher terrain.
There should be a decrease in thunderstorm activity by this
weekend. Temperatures will remain within a few degrees of normal
through the week.


Widely scattered and generally light showers are continuing across
portions of northern Arizona this evening. Expect that this
limited activity will persist into the overnight hours. Another
round of thunderstorm development looks in store for the daytime
hours Friday. Little change to inherited forecast package is


.PREV DISCUSSION /304 PM MST/...A shortwave currently over
northern California is forecast to rotate south along the CA/NV
border tonight, then stall over southern California. The position
of this trough will maintain an unsettled weather pattern over
northern Arizona through Friday with thunderstorm chances forecast
each afternoon. Small hail, gusty winds, and localized heavy rain
will be the primary threats.

The medium range models prog a progressive shortwave trough to
pivot across the central Rockies Saturday. Drier air is progged
to filter into northern Arizona behind the trough axis as high
pressure builds into the western US. A downtick in monsoon
activity is forecast this weekend as a result, with an increase in
moisture and thunderstorm activity forecast by next Monday.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Widely scattered showers will
continue into the overnight hours. Scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity will ramp up again midday Friday lasting
into the early evening hours. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.






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