Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 262224

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
324 PM MST Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Windy and cooler conditions are in store across
northern Arizona today. Less wind and a warming trend are
expected this weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.
The chance for afternoon thunderstorms will return Monday
afternoon and continue through next week.


.DISCUSSION...Dry southwesterly flow remains over Arizona today
with a trough situated to our north. The trough begins to head
east tonight, when we will finally see a decrease in winds. Strong
winds from earlier this morning north of the White Mountains have
subsided, though a few gusts near 40 mph continue so will keep
the Wind Advisory going as is through early this evening. A Red
Flag Warning also remains in effect for portions of eastern
Arizona through this evening.

A large amplitude ridge will build over the western U.S. through
the weekend resulting in very pleasant spring weather. Expect
near to above average temperatures and light winds.

By Monday, enough moisture moves into eastern Arizona to produce
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Storms will favor
eastern Arizona near the New Mexico border but may extend as far
west as Flagstaff and perhaps the Grand Canyon.

We made very few changes to the extended forecast for next week.
Moisture will keep thunderstorms in the forecast each afternoon.
There is some indication that models are backing off slightly on
the western extent of the moisture, but not confident enough right
now to make changes. A low developing over the southwest by mid
to late next week may prolong shower/thunderstorm activity through
the week, but confidence is low in this scenario at this time.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions under mostly clear
skies will continue over northern Arizona for the next 24 hours.
Southwesterly winds will gust to 30-40 knots into the early evening
especially SE of a KPAN-KINW-KRQE line, with winds decreasing after
03Z Saturday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will subside substantially this weekend.
Daytime temperatures will warm a few degrees each day.

Monday through Wednesday...There is a chance for thunderstorms over
Apache County Monday, with better chances for thunderstorms over all
of northern Arizona Tuesday and Wednesday.


this evening FOR AZZ111-113-114-140.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ014-017.




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