Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 181657

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
957 AM MST Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy weather with seasonable temperatures
will continue through Wednesday. Windy and cooler conditions are
expected Thursday into next weekend, with a slight chance of
showers at times.


.UPDATE...No major updates were required to the ongoing forecast.
Mostly sunny skies will continue over northern Arizona through the
short term. Temperatures will be near normal.


.PREV DISCUSSION /212 AM MST/...Today through Wednesday -
temperatures rebound to near seasonal averages with dry conditions
and mostly clear skies. Breezy afternoon winds will develop each
afternoon as a deep trough takes shape across the Pacific NW.

Models are in good agreement in gradually shifting this deeper
trough southward toward our region later in the week, in the
Thursday to Saturday time frame. Cooler and windy weather is
likely. Rain chances continue to be on the low side for now, as
it appears most of the moisture with the low will stay north of
the state, and any subtropical moisture tap looks to affect only
eastern AZ or New Mexico. The windiest day currently looks like
Thursday, when Wind Advisory criteria gusts (>40 mph) are
possible. The first freezing temperatures of the season will also
be possible next weekend for some higher elevations locations,
mainly above 6500 ft elevation.


.AVIATION...For the 18z package...Expect VFR conditions for the
next 24 hours. S-SW winds 15 to 25 kt through 01z Tuesday. Winds
becoming light again after 01z Tuesday. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Northern Arizona will remain under the influence of
a broad trough through Tuesday with near normal temperatures.
Southwest winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph each afternoon.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry, southwest flow aloft to persist
across Arizona through this period. Southwest winds will be breezy
each afternoon as a series of weather disturbances move through the
Great Basin. Thursday looks to have the strongest winds, with gusts
from 35 to 45 mph along and north of the Mogollon Rim.






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