Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 220335
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
835 PM MST MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ON TUESDAY...EXPECT STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA.
FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING WINDY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE GENERALLY LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM EARLIER
TODAY ARE COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING. MUCH WINDIER CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED HEADLINE PRODUCTS (WIND
ADVISORIES & RED FLAG WARNINGS) IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /247 PM MST/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING
BLOWING DUST...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE CHINLE VALLEY IN NORTHEAST
ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE. ON WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR
NORMAL...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LONG RANGE MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN US CAUSING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WHILE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...INCREASED WINDS...A COOL DOWN...RAIN AND
EVEN SOME SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER VARIABLE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. AFTER 15Z...WINDS
STRENGTHEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO NEAR 45
KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AS A DRY COOL FRONT APPROACHES ARIZONA. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON TUESDAY AND A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED. HIGHER ELEVATIONS...GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FEET...SHOULD SEE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM OVER THE PACIFIC WILL APPROACH ARIZONA WITH INCREASING
WINDS ON FRIDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ105>110-
112>114-140.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ004>007-
009>016-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/RR
AVIATION.......KD
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








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