Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 142334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
434 PM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A series of weather disturbances will brush northern
Arizona over the coming days. A cold front moving through today
will bring breezy and colder weather through this evening. For
Friday, temperatures will warm some before yet another cold front
ushers in windy and colder weather later on Saturday through


.DISCUSSION...As the fast moving cold front continues to cross the
area, northeasterly winds will continue across the area with the
strongest gust expected to occur before sunset this evening. As
the system exits the area some cool temperatures will remain
Friday morning before temperatures begin to rebound Friday

By Saturday night into Sunday morning the next trough looks to
move over the area. A lobe of instability looks to separate from
the main trough and become a closed low that moves from Baja
California and into New Mexico. Current forecast solutions allow
for the closed low to inject moisture over the area and allow for
a decent chance for widespread precipitation early Sunday morning.

There is a potential with the current model outputs that some of
this precipitation could fall in the form of snow, with a mean
ensemble solution coming in around 1 to 2 inches across much of
the Rim. Due to the lack of continuity run to run from model
solutions, confidence is not high in this solution at this time.
If subsequent runs continue to show similar tracks and moisture
amounts then expect confidence to increase.

After the weekend system a zonal flow is established ahead the
next potential system that looks to impact the area late next
week confidence remains low on timing and impacts on that system
do to its presence beyond the standard forecast period.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions expected over the
next 24 hours. Winds will taper off overnight to 10-15 kts as the
trough moves southeast out of the area. High clouds will begin
moving into the area late in the period ahead of the next trough.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER... Winds will decouple in the valleys north of the
Mogollon rim as the inversion sets up, but continue across areas
along and south of the Mogollon Rim overnight, gradually decreasing
to 10 to 20 mph by morning. Fair and warmer weather is expected
Friday and Saturday with temperatures 5 degrees above normal.

Sunday through Tuesday... Another cold front will move through from
north to south early Sunday morning dropping temperatures to near
normal and bringing a chance of a few light rain or showers mostly
over the Mogollon rim and White mountains to the southeast . Clear
weather should return on Monday with temperatures back to about 5
degrees above normal.






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