Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011026
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
326 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND
THEN DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE SUMMER MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STREAM ACROSS THE STATE AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED TO OUR EAST OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH LIFTS NORTH TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...FAVORING
WESTERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. AREAS WITH LESS MORNING CLOUD
COVER WILL SEE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WHILE CLOUDED OVER AREAS THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE LATER DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL
BE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT ABOUT 10-15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY.

THE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS MAY PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AND THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND HELPS DRAW DRIER AIR INTO ARIZONA. A PRETTY
STOUT BREAK IN MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL EXCEPT THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR STORMS. MOISTURE LOOKS TO MAKE A
RETURN BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM KPGA-KFLG-KPRC. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY RAIN.
AFTER 17Z SATURDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DECREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE WILL BE DISCONTINUING THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF OUR FORECAST
DISCUSSION UNTIL NEXT YEAR. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT (FWFFGZ) FOR FUTURE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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