Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 202241

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
345 PM MST Thu Jul 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect very active monsoon conditions for the next
several days. Local heavy rainfall capable of producing flash
flooding remains possible from stronger storms.

.DISCUSSION...It has been another active day across northern Arizona
scattered thunderstorms. Some storms produced hail and heavy rain.
Some storms will last/develop through the night.

Deep moisture remains over Friday and Saturday for a continuation of
showers and thunderstorms. The GFS does show some surface drying on
Sunday and then more on Monday. Closer to average activity is
expected next week with day to day variations as meso scale features
(thunderstorm complexes) will have more of an impact on our weather
than synoptic scale features. No significant drying is expected
through next week with moisture remaining entrenched across Arizona
with daily thunderstorms continuing.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will continue across northern Arizona through late
tonight. MVFR/IFR in heavy rain, along with gusts to 30 knots, is
possible under the strongest storms. Quiet conditions are expected
after 07Z Friday, with another round of storms likely after 18Z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Active monsoon conditions will continue with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Heavy rain
and gusty winds will remain the primary impact. Expect near average
temperatures across the area.

Saturday through Monday....Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue, with no significant changes in the weather
pattern anticipated.






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