Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 142211
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
308 PM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...LEADING TO A COLD
NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENTS WEAKEN. BY TONIGHT...LIGHT
WIND COUPLED WITH A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE POSSIBLE DOWN TO NEAR THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL IN YAVAPAI/GILA
COUNTIES. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS
FOR THE ECLIPSE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHING THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER WEDNESDAY...SO THERE WILL BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS NEAR THE 4-CORNERS BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ELSEWHERE. TYPICAL SPRINGTIME BREEZES WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH
WEDNESDAY`S WIND WILL BE A BIT STRONGER...IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK LOW
MEANDERING ACROSS ARIZONA. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 6-12Z. AFTER 18Z...WINDS BECOMING SW5-15 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH UP TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT LIGHT TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AS ANOTHER WEAK AND RELATIVELY DRY STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WHILE TEMPERATURES
DECREASE. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......DJO
FIRE WEATHER...DJO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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