Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190402
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP BEFORE ANOTHER
PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM CAUSES A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS INCREASING BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE
NO EVENING UPDATES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHILE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW AS THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD INCREASING INSTABILITY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE STATE.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

TUESDAY ONWARD...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT
NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A ROUND OF STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AS THE STORM TRACK IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DRAWING GOOD LOW MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA MAINLY AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER ISOLD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN SHRA/TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES. BY SUNDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AS
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND LOWER HUMIDITY DEVELOP.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A DECREASING TREND IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. A DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY
AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/RR
AVIATION.......BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...DJO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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