Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191626
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RESULTING MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING.

&&
.DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO AN
INCH AN HOUR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. SOME NORMALLY DRY WASHES ARE
FLOODING THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. STORMS JUST SOUTH
OF YAVAPAI COUNTY APPEAR TO BE TRAINING--BUILDING OVER THE SAME AREA
AND RAINING ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS--AND MOVING INTO YAVAPAI
COUNTY. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. HAVE
UPDATE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE POPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WINGS OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES
ARIZONA...UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE COOLING AIR
MASS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EMBEDDED IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
CALIFORNIA LOW. TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN MODELS. THE
GFS BRINGS A FAIRLY STRONG UPWARD MOTION BULLSEYE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS
THE UPWARD MOTION MAXIMUM THROUGH FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY DOWNPLAYING ANY CONNECTION BETWEEN THIS UPWARD
MOTION MAXIMUM AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS A FAIRLY
COMMON LOOKING PRECIPITATION FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF A TAP IS MADE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH WATCH OUT.

IN ANY EVENT...KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION. STRONGER STORMS THIS
WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR WILL BE COMMON WITH
ISOLATED IFR DUE TO PRECIP AND OR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. DECREASING
PRECIP COVERAGE AFTER 03Z BUT STRATUS WITH MVFR TO PERSIST. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








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