Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 131819
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA. FAIR WEATHER
RETURNS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. BE SURE TO VISIT OUR
WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR DETAILS CONCERNING VARIOUS
ADVISORY AND WARMING PRODUCTS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY.

EXPECT STRONG WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
25-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
EVENING...WITH FAST NORTHWEST THEN NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE WIND AND BLOWING DUST ADVISORY ENDS AT 8 PM
MST...GUSTY SFC WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND.

ON MONDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COLORADO PLATEAU
AND STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS
LOOK TO DECREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THESE DAYS. PROGS
ARE NOT AS STRONG WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM VS YESTERDAY AND ONLY
EXPECT A BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS BRING ANOTHER WEAK CLOSED LOW FROM OFF THE
PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT SW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WE HAVE ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE UTAH
ARIZONA BORDER THIS MORNING WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE WESTERLY 20-30KTS GUSTING 35-45
KTS...BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST 15-20KTS GUSTING
30-35KTS. BLOWING DUST IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA MAY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES BELOW VFR CONDITIONS. THESE STRONG WIND SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO ARIZONA TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH
MINIMUM VALUES OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY MID
EVENING. FOR MONDAY...WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND GUSTY
EARLY...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS
BECOMING BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ104>107-109>115-139-140.

WIND ADVISORY TODAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 8 PM MST AZ ZONES
004>007-009>014>016-039-040.

BLOWING DUST ADVISORY TODAY 11 AM UNTIL 8 PM MST AZ ZONES
004>007-009>014>016-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/DL
AVIATION.......BOHLIN/DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









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