Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 221001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
301 AM MST Thu Jun 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Hot conditions will persist through the weekend.
Temperatures will begin to slowly trend downward over the weekend
and into next week. The chance for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will increase again later in the weekend and into
next week mainly for Apache and southern Navajo counties.


.DISCUSSION...With little movement in the ridge of high pressure
through the weekend, well above normal temperatures will persist
over northern Arizona. One difference from the past several days
will be an increase in westerly flow across the area today which
will result in gusty afternoon winds. While winds will remain
below advisory criteria, we do expect gusts of 30-35 mph in the
afternoon timeframe. This will lead to increased fire weather
concerns as temperatures still remain very hot and conditions are
dry. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be low over the next few
days but will increase over the weekend and early next week
mainly across Apache and southern Navajo counties.

There still remains differences in model guidance on how much
moisture will make it into northern Arizona next week, but the
area most likely to see shower and thunderstorm development will
be in the White Mountains. While temperatures will remain above
normal, they will not be at the level we have seen over the past
several days.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Smoke from area wildfires may
cause brief MVFR visibility. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected for the next 24 hours. Sfc winds this afternoon SW-W
10-20kt gust to 30kt. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...For today...20 foot winds from the west southwest to
have more vigor than the last few days, though speeds are forecast
to remain just below critical thresholds. Lighter wind speeds are
forecast on Friday. Afternoon Haines indices at high, low afternoon
humidities and max temps around 12 degrees above normal will
continue through Saturday.  A few high-based thunderstorms capable
of gusty winds may return to the White Mountains on Saturday.

Sunday and Monday... Chances for high based tstorms expands across
Apache and southern Navajo counties by Monday. Max temps are on a
slow cooling trend.


this evening FOR AZZ004-007>017-039- 040.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ018-

Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ005-006-037.




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