Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 270458

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
958 PM MST MON SEP 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure area over northwestern Mexico will
slowly move northwest through Wednesday night. This will bring an
increasing chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight and
on Tuesday. Moisture will then lead to a continued chance of showers
and isolated thunderstorms through Friday. Drier air from the west
will move in over Arizona this weekend. Look for near normal
temperatures through the period.

.Discussion...An area of low pressure centered over the Northern
Baja is circulating several bands of precipitation north of the
center. A very light band of showers (rain or maybe just virga) is
moving east to west through the southern portion of our CWA this
evening. A band of thunderstorms is moving (east to west) across
Sonora, Sea of Cortez, and Northern Baja this evening. Will bump
temps up a few degrees as increasing clouds will keep things warmer


.PREV DISCUSSION /358 PM MST/... Moist and mild conditions will
develop this work week over much of the area, with an increasing
chance of precipitation through the middle of the week as southerly
fetch between a low pressure system off the coast of California and
a ridge of high pressure over the West Texas.

Topographical enhancement will allow for showers to develop over
the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains tonight
and into Tuesday. As that moisture moves across Northern Arizona,
precipitation changes will increase across the area, with the best
chance of widespread precipitation occurring Tuesday and

A large scale closed low will move over the Pacific Northwest
towards the end of the week, as this system moves inland the high
pressure ridge over Texas will flatten out in response and
southerly flow will give way to a more zonal pattern limiting
moisture transport through the weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Winds will be generally light
for most locations tonight...then becoming easterly 10-20kts 17Z-
01Z. ISOLD -SHRA south of a KPRC-KSJN line through 18Z...then SCT-
SHRA/-TSRA south of a KCMR-KRQE. ISOLD MVFR conditions.  Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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