Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 140411

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
915 PM MST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect mainly dry, but cloudy conditions overnight
and into Wednesday. Chances for rain and high elevation snowfall
return Wednesday night, lasting through Thursday. Drier and warmer
conditions develop Friday and into the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Much drier and warmer air aloft has moved into most
of the state this evening, with just a few isolated showers hanging
on over the far northwest. The upper low that brought rain and snow
to the region over the last 36 hours has retrograded well off the
west coast, allowing a tap to the subtropics to develop.

By early Wednesday, another trough will enter the Great Basin, this
will allow the offshore system to open up and eject through the
southwest. The subtropical airmass ahead of this low will move into
southern and eastern Arizona late in the day and overnight, with
dynamics from the northern system bringing showers to northern and
central Arizona well into Thursday.

All things considered, this is not a terribly dynamic situation and
cold air is lacking. Well above normal moisture values to the south
will certainly bring showers to our east-central zones, but other
areas will be more spotty. We are not expecting much on the way of
snowfall or travel impacts, but do expect another 36 hour period of
showers, especially southeast of Flagstaff.

Zones/grids look pretty good tonight, no major updates.


.AVIATION...For the 06z Package...Look for local MVFR conditions
tonight, primarily over the higher terrain. After 15Z VFR conditions
will briefly prevail before another weather disturbance delivers
areas of MVFR conditions and showers Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Southwest winds of 15-25 kts gusting to 35 kts will develop
by midday Wednesday continuing into Wednesday evening. Aviation
discussion not updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers over the higher terrain will
decrease tonight as low pressure moves away from Arizona. This low
will move back over Arizona Wednesday afternoon, bringing another
round of precipitation to the area Wednesday night through Thursday.
Expect near average temperatures through Thursday, with breezy
southwest winds. Winds will become more westerly by Thursday

Friday through Sunday...Warmer and drier conditions will return to
the area, under a west to northwesterly flow aloft.





FIRE WEATHER...Wolcott/MCT/Peterson

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