Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260342
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
842 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA INTO FRIDAY. A DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST ARIZONA.
A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE INCREASING TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
FEATURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT THE HIGH CLOUDS
TO INCREASE AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN THICKEN ON
THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO ARIZONA. HAVE ADJUSTED
CLOUD COVER FORECASTS TO REFLECT THE EXPECTED TRENDS WITH NO OTHER
UPDATES ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHWEST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A WET PATTERN TO NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS
ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /415 PM MST/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON....BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NAVAJO AND HOPI NATIONS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5500 FEET.

A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER EVEN
COLDER TROUGH POSSIBLE FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT WIND...RAIN...AND SNOW.

SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
25-35 MPH. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SW SUSTAINED
20-35 MPH AND GUSTS 35-50 MPH WITH THE FASTEST SPEEDS IN THE
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER FRIDAY AND THEN EXPAND AND MOVE SOUTH TO COVER MUCH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. FORECAST
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE LOW ALONG THE UTAH BORDER...AROUND
5000 FEET...THEN RISE TO AROUND 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 7000 FEET IN THE FLAGSTAFF AREA AND THEN
SLOWLY LOWER. THE SNOW LEVEL IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM
7300 FEET TO 7500 FEET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THEN FALL. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ARE LOOKING WET AND COLD AS THE TROUGH AXIS IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS
THE DESERT SW.

A SECONDARY LOW COULD DROP DOWN OVER ARIZONA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND PRECIPITATION.

CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS AND PRECIPITATION TIMING.
SNOW LEVELS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS THIS
EVENT NEARS. THERE IS A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM INCLUDING NORTHERN
GILA COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MAJOR IMPACTS...PLEASE
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.

PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO GET YOUR WINTER TRAVEL KIT REPLENISHED...
MAKE SURE THE CAR/TRUCK HAS A FULL TANK OF GAS ETCETERA.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL THICKEN
ON THURSDAY YET CIGS SHOULD STILL PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY NORTH OF A KGCN-
KINW-KSJN LINE AFTER 18Z THURSDAY WHERE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/MAS
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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