Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 102220

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
320 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A few high clouds will move in along and south of the
Mogollon Rim overnight into Monday. High pressure will lead to
above normal daytime temperatures, relatively light east winds and
very dry conditions through much of next week.


.DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate
the weather pattern over the next seven days keeping all passing
upper level disturbances to our north. This will lead to above
normal temperatures and very dry conditions for the foreseeable

Monday through Wednesday...Winds remain light and easterly
through the midweek. Periods of dense high clouds will be possible
along and south of the Mogollon Rim Monday as moisture from a
closed low passing to our south along the Mexico/AZ border slopes
upward into our area. By Tuesday, back to mostly sunny conditions
through the rest of the week.

Thursday through Sunday...Winds will become more northerly
Thursday then shift to the northwest by Saturday as a couple of
upper level disturbances pass to our north. High clouds will
return Saturday as a weak trough of low pressure brushes past the
AZ/UT border. This system will bring a slight cool down in
temperatures but all indications are that we will remain dry at
this time.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions through 00z
Tuesday under increasing cirrus. NE sfc winds 5-15kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Very little change in day to day weather through
Tuesday. Expect variable high level cloud cover through Monday night
as a weak upper low passes south of our state on Monday. The airmass
to remain stable with very light east to northeast mixing layer

Wednesday through Friday...Above average daytime temperatures (+5 to
10 degrees) and dry conditions will continue, as northeast flow
aloft persists. Generally light winds are expected.






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