Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 232243
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 PM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH COLD OVERNIGHT
LOWS. AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
WITH COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. COLD
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE 10-20 DEGREES COLDER THIS AFTERNOON
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE MAKING IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD START TO DECREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE EVENING...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE COLDER THAN RECENT DAYS.
TODAY`S COLD AND WINDY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A FAST MOVING
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WEST TOMORROW...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD TROUGH
DUE CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY PATH
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS IS A DRY
TRAJECTORY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS STARTING IN NW ARIZONA EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING...SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE MAINLY FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. MODELS
ARE HOWEVER HINTING AT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (1-2") ACROSS THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU DURING THE MORNING...THEN THE WHITE MTNS REGION
CHRISTMAS NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE ONE OF THE
COLDEST SO FAR THIS SEASON AND WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE COLD AIR WILL
LINGER FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SECONDARY IMPULSES MOVE INTO
THE TROUGH POSITION. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND BUT THIS LOOKS INSIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. MODELS
INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...RANGING
FROM DRY AND MILDER NW FLOW TO VERY COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AND MORE
FLURRIES. FOR NOW...BROUGHT TEMPS BACK UP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH VERY
LOW POPS
MON/TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOOK FOR LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS THROUGH 01Z.
AFTER 01Z...WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. &&
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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