Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 012305
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
405 PM MST MON FEB 01 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT FREQUENT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND SOME BLOWING SNOW. CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DRY AND GRADUALLY
WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RETURN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF OUR DEPARTING LOW CONVECTS FROM THE SFC
UP TO ABOUT 550MB. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO
CONTINUES AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF FLAGSTAFF AND ALONG THE
PAYSON RIM. THESE LOCATIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE IN WESTERLY FLOW FOR
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ONE LAST WEAK S/WV NEAR KINGMAN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE STATE FOR TUESDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS A RESULT.

WE HAVE HEADLINES THAT CONTINUE THROUGH 5PM MST TODAY AND THESE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE DUE TO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AND BLOWING SNOW.

DRY...BUT COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAKE FOR COOL DAYS AND VERY COLD
NIGHTS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK
LOW TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE STATE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SOLUTION. WE HAVE ADDED A LITTLE COOLING
AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE SCENARIO. RIDGING THEN RETURNS
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR DUE
TO -SHSN/-SHRA WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR...MAINLY THROUGH 03Z TUESDAY.
BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER 03Z...AREAS OF SHRA/SHSN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DECREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST...IMPROVING ESPECIALLY BY EARLY TUESDAY AM.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 4000 FEET UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONES 004-006>009-011-015-016-018-038-039.

WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 4000 FEET UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONE 017.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...KD


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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