Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251154
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
454 AM MST MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA
WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. THE BIG IMPACT FOR
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING OVER
30 MPH OVER SOME AREAS, WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FOR MOST AREAS
AFTER SUNRISE. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA WHERE GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 MPH ARE
LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND COULD IMPACT
TRAVEL WITH DANGEROUS CROSS WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA, A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTS IN
THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE. AS THE LOW SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING, INCREASING LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD. SNOW
LEVELS FALLING TO 6000-7000 FEET WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS.

TUESDAY...THE LOW MOVES EAST WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF LIGHT
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA. OTHERWISE, CONTINUED
COOL WITH MUCH LESS WIND.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BREEZY WINDS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN IN WESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THURSDAY
SPREADING EASTWARD WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY AT THIS POINT AS A
THIRD LOW SWINGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...XPCT VFR CONDS THRU 17Z-19Z WITH
SCT-BKN CIGS 5-11KFT AGL. AFT 17Z-19Z...AREAS MVFR IN -SHRA/-SHSN
SPRDG WEST TO EAST THRU THE REMAINDER THE PERIOD. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. SFC WINDS INCREASING TO SW25-
36G45-57KTS...DCRSG TO 5-15KTS BY AROUND 06Z TUESDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
ON MONDAY PRODUCING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF APACHE COUNTY.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF
NAVAJO AND GILA COUNTIES. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATIONS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE DISTRICT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY...EXPECT
DECREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND LESS WIND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM WILL BRING
DRY...COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM
THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004>010-012-015-
016-018-037-038.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ011-013-014-017-039-040.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ111-114.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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