Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 202240
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 PM MST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS. A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE AREA
FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND...WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
TODAY HAS RESULTED IN A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER ARIZONA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLODS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. FURTHER
NORTH...HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NORTH OF I-40 BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE...ROUGHLY FROM A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF-KAYENTA LINE WEST...WITH
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
7500-8000 FEET...ABOVE MOST POPULATED MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE
DRY SLOTTING WILL LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE
FROM 30-40 MPH.

LINGERING INSTABILITY AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
FAVORING THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER REGION. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BOTTOMING OUT ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING CIRRUS THROUGH 06Z FOLLOWED BY SCT-BKN
CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO 15-20KFT MSL THROUGH THURS AFTN. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
AZ...INCLUDING KGCN AND KPGA TERMINALS. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS
THURS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH FOR
CONDITIONS TO APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ARIZONA.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ


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