Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191112
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY...INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF
YUMA HAS COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE...MOIST AND SHEARED
AIRMASS ABOVE 650MB. THIS IS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO PUSH NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE DAY...DESPITE THE LOW MOVING EAST. A LOSS OF FORCING
LATER THIS MORNING WILL BE COMPENSATED FOR BY SURFACE HEATING AND
FURTHER DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WE HAVE RAISED POPS AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY FROM FLAGSTAFF SOUTH
AND EAST. EVENING ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER MONDAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DRYING
DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN. MUCH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TRAILS THIS TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY COUPLED WITH RISING HGHTS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SEVERAL WARM AND SUNNY DAYS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-NMRS -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
TO CONTINUE ALONG AND TO A RIGHT OF A LINE FROM KFLG-KRQE-KSJN-KPAN
THIS MORNING. EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z SUN...SCT -SHRA AND
ISOLD -TSRA MOSTLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KFLG-KGCN-KRQE. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. MOST ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE AFT 02Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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