Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 090422
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 PM MST TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...DRIER MORE STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA LEADING TO ISOLATED STORMS THERE. ELSEWHERE NUMEROUS STORMS
TO CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE DEFINITELY WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING WITH
THE LAST STRONGEST STORM CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS THE SALT RIVER INTO
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. CHC`S OF PRECIPITATION WERE REDUCE THIS
EVENING FROM NOW THROUGH 11 PM TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES.

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WERE THE BIGGEST WEATHER STORY OF THE DAY.
PLACES THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN AS INDICATED BY RADAR RAINFALL
ESTIMATES WERE 1 TO 4 INCHES FELL OCCURRED NEAR...MOUNT HOPE AND
WESTWARD TO THE YAVAPAI COUNTY LINE...4 TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WALNUT CREEK RANGER STATION IN YAVAPAI COUNTY...4 TO 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF KIRKLAND...BETWEEN CROWN KING AND WAGONER...EAST
FLAGSTAFF OUT THROUGH DONEY PARK...ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM
NEAR CHAVEZ MOUNTAIN AND 8 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FOREST LAKES AND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH YOUNG. IN SOME PLACES LOTS OF HAIL ACCOMPANIED THE
HEAVY RAIN...LIKE IN EAST FLAGSTAFF WERE HAIL DRIFTS 12 TO 18 INCHES
DEEP OCCURRED.

IF YOU HAVE ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS PLEASE PASS THEM
ALONG TO US THROUGH SUBMIT A REPORT FROM OUR HOME PAGE AT
WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/FGZ...UNDER CURRENT HAZARDS FROM THE BAR ON THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE WEB PAGE CLICK ON SUBMIT REPORT.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /320 PM MST/...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS YAVAPAI
COUNTY WITH REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO 3/4 INCH AND MEASURED RAINFALL
APPROACHING 2 INCHES. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DID SLOW CONVECTION
ACROSS COCONINO COUNTY...BUT THIS HAS PUSHED NORTHEASTWARD AND
STRONG STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING HERE...WITH
DEVELOPED STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

THE GFS MODELS SHOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY AND MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAYS FORECAST. ON FRIDAY...DRIER MORE STABLE AIR
IS SHOWN TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WAS MADE ISOLATED FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM ASH FORK TO
KAYENTA. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 18Z...MOST
NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN PRODUCING MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN THE
HEAVIER TSRA. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE
MOGOLLON RIM...WHITES...AND YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS...ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING AFT 03Z THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY...AS
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED...MOST NOTABLE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA.

.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC/DL
AVIATION.......TC/BAK
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF













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