Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 201621

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
921 AM MST FRI MAY 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry, windy and progressively cooler conditions
today and over the weekend. Breezy conditions and below normal
temperatures will continue next week.


.DISCUSSION...The main feature of today`s weather will be strong
south to southwest winds across much of northern Arizona. This is
due to tightening pressure gradients associated with an
unseasonably deep low centered over northern California and
Nevada. Aside from a very strong low level inversion, this
morning`s upper-air sounding from Flagstaff, Arizona reveals near
surface winds already as strong as 37 knots. These winds are
expected to increase throughout the day.

A wind advisory will be in effect today for most of northern
Arizona from 11 am to 7 pm - please check
for the exact location. The strongest winds are expected across
western Coconino County where a few gusts may exceed 50 mph.
Overnight, very strong winds will likely continue at locations
northeast of high terrain.

In terms of forecast updates, the only change made was to increase
cloud cover in far northwest Coconino County to account for some
mid and high level cloud there.


.PREV DISCUSSION /350 AM MST/...A large and unseasonably deep low
pressure system can be seen this morning entering the northwestern
Great Basin. This low will slowly move southeast through early
Sunday, before shearing and lifting northeast away from the area
by Sunday. This means windy and dry weather for Arizona, with a
steady cooling trend developing heading into the weekend. A wind
advisory has been issued for today for most of the area, another
advisory will likely be needed for Saturday.

Next week brings more of the same with a seemingly endless train
of low pressure systems developing and moving through the Great
Basin. Expect below normal temperatures and breezy to windy
conditions well into next week as a result.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Look for VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours. Low pressure centered over Nevada will produce south
to southwest winds 15-30 kts gusting to 45 kts...especially from the
Mogollon Rim northward until 02Z. After 02Z...winds weakening to
south to southwest at 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure system will settle over the Great
basin for several days. Expect very gusty south to southwest winds
across northern Arizona. Look for below normal temperatures.
Relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical fire
weather levels today, and may reach critical values Saturday
afternoon in areas below 6000 feet.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry weather and below normal temperatures.
Gusty south to southwest winds each afternoon across northern


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ004>009-012-013-




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