Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240424
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
924 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A STRONGER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA FROM
THIS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION
STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF AZ THROUGH SOUTHERN NV AND
INTO CENTRAL CA AND IS HELPING TO FUEL ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST. UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 3500 TO 4000 FEET NEAR THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU TO AROUND 6000 FEET IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. ALL SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECT A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. A
COLD AND BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY
SETTING UP A VERY MOIST WSW FLOW INTO ARIZONA. SHOULD THE PROGS
VERIFY...WE WOULD SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM EARLY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS VARY
DRAMATICALLY ON HOW COLD THE EVENT MAY BE...BUT ARE RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT IN THE ONSET AND AMOUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION. AT THIS
TIME WE ANTICIPATE SNOW LEVELS FROM AROUND 5000 FEET ALONG THE UTAH
BORDER TO 6000-7000 FEET ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT MVFR/IFR AND ISOLD LIFR
IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED FOG THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...WITH
IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF A KP23-KSEZ-KPAN LINE
THROUGH 18Z...THEN EAST OF A KPGA-KFLG-KPAN LINE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z WED. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/RR
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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