Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 210425

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
925 PM MST Thu Jul 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect very active monsoon conditions for the next
several days. Local heavy rainfall capable of producing flash
flooding remains possible from stronger storms.


.DISCUSSION...Much quieter compared to last night. Several factors
went into this, mainly the atmosphere was a bit worked over, a bit
less forcing and nearly neutral steering flow. There is still some
potential that an MCS could form just south of our CWA this evening
and push some activity back north. Even if this did happen, impacts
should be minimal.

Models forecast more weak steering flow tomorrow, although the
southern portions of the CWA may be very moisture rich. Northeast
through east steering flow and some shear returns Saturday and
Sunday. Long story short, we will remain active with moisture and
convective levels remaining a bit above normal.

Grids and text products look fine and aside from radar and met
watch, there will be no updates this evening.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect isold to sct shra/tsra
tonight, mainly southeast of a line from KPAN to KINW to KRQE. A
similar day expected on Friday, sct to numrs shra/tsra and isold
+tsra aft 17z-19z. MVFR/IFR in the stronger storms. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Active monsoon conditions will continue with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Heavy rain
and gusty winds will remain the primary impact. Expect near average
temperatures across the area.

Saturday through Monday....Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue, with no significant changes in the weather
pattern anticipated.






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