Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181626
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
LOW WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A
PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WESTERN US WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PATTERN WITH SEVERAL
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND
COMING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS PATTERN WILL BRINGING PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. A
MILD WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC ALONG WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN ERNEST THIS WEEK
WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL DIMINISH
CAUSING SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGE
AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CU/SC WITH BASES
FROM 7-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM 20Z-06Z. LOCALLY LOWER BASES NEAR SHOWERS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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