Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 122100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
200 PM MST Tue Sep 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected again
today, mainly along the higher terrain. A disturbance arriving
from late Wednesday and into Thursday should increase southwest
wind speeds while bringing additional chances for rain. Expect
precipitation chances to substantially decrease by Friday and


Scattered showers continue across the higher terrain north of the
Mogollon Rim this afternoon as residual moisture and daytime
heating combine to create an active, but relatively benign series
of showers through sunset.

With no significant source of moisture, shower activity is
expected again Wednesday, but showers should be more widespread
and less active as moisture becomes more and more of a limiting

By Wednesday night a low pressure system off the coast of
California begins to move inland and should affect the area
Wednesday Night and Thursday.

Windy conditions will develop early Thursday as an increasing
gradient due to the pressure system moving across southern Utah
and northern Arizona. Some more widespread shower activity will be
possible Thursday as the approaching vorticity maximum allows for
upper level support of daytime instability.

By Friday a series of shortwave troughs will continue to move
through the western U.S. as large scale trough sets up over the
inland northwest. This will continue to produce systems that will
limit temperature values this weekend and into next week.
Precipitation chances will be limited due to the dry nature of
most of these shortwaves, however a slight change to the flow
pattern could cause a more active weather pattern.


.AVIATION...For the 00z package...Expect isolated showers and
thunderstorms across northern Arizona through sunset. Another round
of isolated showers and thunderstorms, along with breezy southwest
winds, are forecast after 18Z Wednesday. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect another round of afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. On Thursday, a passing
weather disturbance will bring better chances for showers and
thunderstorms, and increasing southwest winds. Gusty southwest winds
continue on Friday along and north of the Mogollon Rim, with dry and
cooler weather forecast for the weekend.






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