Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301021
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
320 AM MST SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE DAY TO THE
REGION TODAY...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH STORM ACTIVITY EASTWARD ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...EVENTUALLY LIMITING STORMS TO THE FAR EASTERN BORDER
BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGHER PW VALUES AS WELL AS IMPROVED DYNAMICS AND
SHEAR WILL COME TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON...DELIVERING A FAR GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WHEN COMPARED TO SATURDAY. THIS AIRMASS
WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ON MONDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST STORM POTENTIAL
SHIFTING ROUGHLY TO A LINE FROM I-17 EASTWARD.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FEATURES STEADILY DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE TO THE EASTERN
BORDER BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL COME
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR
NORTH...ALONG WITH GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF MVFR CIG/IFR
VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS. COVERAGE DIMINISHING AFT 03Z MONDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...PETERSON


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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