Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 271100
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
400 AM MST WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA. ANOTHER
WET AND COOL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
A CHANCE OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN
SHOWERS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
OVER THE WEEKEND PRODUCING CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND COOL
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO
BRING INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 7500 TO 8500
FEET...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION AT TIMES. THE FIRST IN THE SERIES
OF SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH RIM OF THE GRAND CANYON AND THE SAN
FRANCISCO PEAKS.

THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT
PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY...THE WINDIEST
LOCATIONS APPEAR TO BE FROM THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS...NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WINDY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE WEEKEND WEATHER
SYSTEM AS WELL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON SW WINDS 15-20 KTS GUSTING UP
TO 30 KTS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF A
KAYENTA TO FLAGSTAFF LINE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFT 06Z...SHOWERS
INCREASING AND GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 7000-8000 FT MSL BY SUNRISE THURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...INCREASING AND
SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH ARIZONA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN LOOKS TO BE FROM
AROUND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWESTWARD.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES IN
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND CONTINUED COOL WEATHER. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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