Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310743
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
904 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH A WET MONSOON PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING STORM COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. A
WET MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STRONGEST WEATHER THREATS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL COME FROM
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

THE EVENING FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /336 PM MST/...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER DELAYED CONVECTION OVER AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON IS CAUSING STORMS WEST OF
I-17 AND NORTH OF I-40 TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST. STORMS SOUTHEAST OF
FLAGSTAFF ARE GENERALLY MOVING NORTH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
WELL INTO THE EVENING THEN DECREASE AFTER DARK.

THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY....AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO RETURN TO WESTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...PUSHING THE MONSOON
PLUME EASTWARD. BY MONDAY...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF
I-17 TO PAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES THOUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY EXPECTED HAZARDS.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUING.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A DOWNTURN IN STORM ACTIVITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 03Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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