Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221630
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
TO THE AREA BY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TIGHT GRADIENTS DEVELOPING OVER ARIZONA BETWEEN A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. SENT A MINOR
UPDATE TO INCREASE NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS TODAY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
NORTHWARD...WITH 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY AFTERNOON. REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS...AND THE
DISCUSSION BELOW COVERS THIS WELL.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(340 AM MST)...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT DOWN THE FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING. PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS
FRONT AND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES
LATER TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE MODERATELY STRONG AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SW ACROSS THE STATE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER S/WV DUE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS NEXT
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS...BUT
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE LAST FEW RUNS
AND CONFIDENCE CONCERNING PLACEMENT IS LOW. 00Z GFS AND EURO RUNS
BROUGHT VERY COLD AIR AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE STATE...WHICH
COUNTERED EARLIER RUNS. THE 06Z GFS IN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AGAIN.

FOR NOW...WE WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR...WITH A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS REMAIN
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOOK FOR LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ/PETERSON
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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