Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 262233

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
333 PM MST THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A weak low pressure system will produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms today into Friday. Moisture will linger
through early next week with only slight chances of showers and
thunderstorms each day. Otherwise, warmer temperatures are in
store starting Friday into next week.


We`ve seen an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage this
afternoon, mainly from I-40 north to the Utah border. As these are
higher based storms with a rather dry sub-cloud environment, gusty
and erratic winds should be anticipated near any showers. This is
all occurring as a trough shifts eastward across the state.
Daytime temps continue to be below normal, but are expected to
rebound to near normal levels over the coming Memorial Day holiday
weekend. Still, weak disturbances and lingering moisture after
this initial low make it difficult to have high confidence in a
completely dry forecast for the weekend and early next week.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Expect generally VFR conditions
for the next 24 hours with isold to sct high based SHRA and TSRA
mainly from the Mogollon Rim north through this evening, and once
again tomorrow afternoon. Erratic and gusty winds are possible
near SHRA/TSRA. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across northern Arizona Friday afternoon and evening. Erratic
and gusty winds possible with any shower or storm. Slight chance
for dry, high-based storms Saturday afternoon across the higher

Sunday through Tuesday...Drier conditions and relatively light
winds are expected into early next week. There will be a slight
chance for dry, high based thunderstorms over higher terrain.
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.






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