Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 261119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
419 AM MST Wed Jul 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A significant decrease in storm coverage is expected
Wednesday through Thursday. A return to more active monsoon
conditions is expected starting Friday.


Satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies this morning across
northern AZ. We have seen some patchy fog here in Bellemont and
several locations are reporting 100% humidity now. Thus expect
some patches of fog in the high country through mid morning.
While progs continue to show moisture amounts decreasing across
the northland ( and seen in satellite PW), forecast soundings
suggest scattered afternoon storms across the high country. Some
of these may drift northward into the valleys of northeast AZ,
through mid evening. Fair weather then returns through mid morning
Thursday when this pattern should repeat.

From Friday through Tuesday, models continue to show east to
southeast flow aloft bringing increasing moisture back into the
northland. The GFS model is consistent in showing an inverted
trough affecting the state Friday into Saturday. This feature
means a return to shower and storm chances around the clock for
this period, but the best chances still should be late morning
through the evening.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect clearing skies overnight
with little or no convective activity, though areas of patchy fog
may develop. SHRA/TSRA developing after 18Z today, especially over
the higher terrain. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...A slightly drier air mass will spread across
northern Arizona today and Thursday, with less active rounds of
afternoon and evening showers and storms expected. Look for slightly
warmer temperatures.

Friday through Sunday...Moisture will begin to increase across
Arizona with a greater chance for showers and storms expected
across the fire district.






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