Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 181041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
341 AM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS... Cold temperatures are in store for this weekend
behind a cold front that moved through the area Friday night. Dry
and warmer weather along with light winds returns Sunday
afternoon and will remain across the area through next week.


Cold temperatures will dominate this weekend behind a cold front
that quickly spread across Northern Arizona. Dry conditions are
anticipated through forecast period, as a ridge of high pressure
begins to build into the region from off the California Coast.

This will cause the cold air mass currently in place over Northern
Arizona to moderate out relatively quickly, with cool temperatures
remain through Sunday morning before temperatures climb back above
seasonal averages.

Models remain in good agreement that the ridge creating these
warm dry conditions looks to remain over the region through at
least the next weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Look for VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours under generally clear skies. Locally gusty northeast
winds at 10-20 kt along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Much drier air will arrive today and Sunday with
low relative humidity values. Northeasterly breezes from the
Mogollon Rim southward today will give way to light and variable
winds on Sunday. Generally clear skies both days.

Monday through Wednesday...Generally light winds and dry conditions
are expected as high pressure builds. Temperatures will gradually
increase each day, reaching well above average values by Tuesday and
Wednesday. A disturbance brushing Arizona on Monday will bring
increasing clouds, otherwise mostly clear skies.






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