Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 171040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
340 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and above normal temperatures will persist
through Thursday. A storm system will bring gusty winds and
sharply colder temperatures to the region heading into the
weekend, along with a chance of rain and snow showers.
Temperatures will slowly moderate late weekend into early next


.DISCUSSION...The weak shortwave trough that brought very light
precipitation to portions of the region last night has shifted
east this morning. High pressure will rebuild over the southwest
part of the country into Thursday with continued above normal

This ridge will shift to the east as a trough digs toward the
California coast. The trough is expected to bring another taste of
winter to northern Arizona later Friday into the weekend. Expect
increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the trough Friday afternoon
and continuing into Friday night. Wind advisories may be
necessary across portions of the region as 700 mb winds are
progged to be between 50-60 kt. As the cold front crosses the area
Friday night into Saturday expect rapidly falling temperatures
with rain and snow showers developing. While this is not expected
to be a heavy precipitation event, a general 1-3 inches of
accumulation is possible. Snowfall totals will continue to be
fine-tuned as we get closer to the event. These snowfall amounts
will be more than enough to cause hazardous travel conditions
Friday night into Saturday so stay tuned to the latest forecast
if you have travel plans.

Temperatures will begin to slowly moderate Sunday and into early
next week with little sign of additional precipitation on the


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions continue
over the next 24 hours. Sfc winds this afternoon N-NE 5-15
kt otherwise light. Aviation discussion not updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry weather through Thursday as a fast
moving ridge of high pressure crosses the desert southwest. Max
temps 5 to 10 degrees above normal today with further warming

Friday through Sunday...Very gusty southwest winds return Friday
afternoon as a strong cold front approaches our area. The front to
move through Friday night, with gusty winds persisting and a band of
precipitation along the front. A chance of showers continues
Saturday with snow levels to 3500 feet Saturday afternoon. Dry and
warmer conditions return Sunday.






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