Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 251123

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
423 AM MST MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will increase across northern Arizona
from south to north through Tuesday. Expect good coverage of
showers and thunderstorms especially over the mountains. On
Wednesday drier air should move southward leading to only
isolated storm chances from I-40 northward. Elsewhere expect
scattered storms to continue from the Mogollon Rim region south.

.DISCUSSION...A subtropical high is positioned to the east of
Arizona and a subtropical low is positioned to the
southwest...both the clockwise and counter clockwise circulation
respectively are helping draw much deeper subtropical moisture
northward into Arizona with 1.5 inch PW creeping into southern
parts of the state with 1.0 inch PW moving north of I-40. Areas to
the north of I-40 will see thunderstorms however not as widespread
south of I-40 storm are forecast to be more widespread today. The
subtropical moisture is forecast to spread northward toward the
Utah border on Tuesday with storms becoming more widespread on
Tuesday. The main threat from these storms will be hail...strong
gusty winds...and localized heavy rain.

On Wednesday...The subtropical high shifts to the northwest of
Arizona...slowly bring drier air into northern Arizona primarily
to the north of I-40 with fewer storms. To the south moisture is
forecast to remain deep enough for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. This pattern is forecast to persist through Friday.

Through the weekend...the subtropical high is forecast to move east
into New Mexico with a moist SE subtropical flow returning and
bringing deeper subtropical moisture back into northern Arizona by
Sunday. This moist pattern is forecast to continue into next week
with subtropical weather disturbances moving northwest across the
area helping to enhance afternoon and overnight thunderstorm

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA
will develop aft 18Z...initially over the higher terrain and then
spreading into the lower elevations by late afternoon or evening.
Scattered MVFR and isolated IFR in +RA with gusty winds also
possible near storm activity. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.






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