Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 260328

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
828 PM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and dry conditions will continue through this
evening. An unsettled pattern will arrive on Sunday and last into
early next week, with breezy and cool conditions along with a
good chance for rain and snow showers. Dry weather and a warming
trend is then forecast Wednesday through the end of next week.


.UPDATE...Increasing mid level moisture ahead of a west coast
trough has brought cloudy skies this evening to much of the area.
Low levels remain dry so most of the precipitation showing up on
area radars is remaining aloft, though a few snow flurries could
develop through the overnight period at the higher elevations with
no accumulation. Forecasts for Sunday were updated to increase
precip chances for the higher terrain as weakening low pressure
moves quickly across the region.


.PREV DISCUSSION /308 PM MST/...Breezy conditions will continue
across northern Arizona through late afternoon ahead of an
approaching storm system. Dry conditions are forecast through the
overnight hours.

Two systems are then forecast to impact the region Sunday through

System #1: Sunday will see a quick shot of precipitation across
northern Arizona. Snow levels will generally be in the 4500-5500
ft. range with snow accumulations generally less than one half an
inch. Temperatures will continue to be below normal.

System #2: Monday afternoon through Tuesday will see the
potential for appreciable precipitation accumulations. Forecast
models were initially wet, then scaled back, and now are looping
back to a wet solution again. The latest model runs continue to
paint a wet picture for the Monday-Tuesday period resulting in
increasing confidence for increasing precipitation chances.

The greatest precipitation amounts are forecast over areas south
of I-40 primarily over Yavapai and Gila counties, and along the
Mogollon Rim. Snow levels are forecast to be in the 5500-6000 ft.
range. Currently it looks like snow amounts along the Mogollon Rim
will be appreciable, with Flagstaff forecast to receive around 6
inches, Show Low around 2 inches, and Alpine around 4 inches.
These forecast amounts will likely change with future model runs.

For now it appears that little to no snow accumulations are
expected for Prescott or Payson. However, rainfall amounts near
one inch will likely cause rises in creeks and streams in Yavapai
and Gila counties. No major flooding impacts are expected at this

Precipitation chances should taper off Tuesday night. A drying and
warming trend is then forecast to commence Wednesday, and
continue through the end of next week with above normal high
temperatures expected Thursday through the weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Look for high and mid-level clouds
to persist overnight with decreasing ceilings in advance of an
approaching storm system. Lower clouds on Sunday will lead to areas
of MVFR ceilings and showers spreading from west to east across the
high terrain of northern Arizona. Southwest winds will increase to
10-20 knots on Sunday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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