Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 031646
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
946 AM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
APACHE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER ARIZONA FROM THE WEST WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE AND STRONG
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO CLOUD COVER BY
REDUCING THE CLOUD COVER VALUES FOR THIS MORNING...ALSO CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN REDUCE THROUGH NOON AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH WARMER AND DRYING
CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /416 AM MST/...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER APACHE COUNTY TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA FROM
THE WEST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES NORTHERN ARIZONA...EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WINDS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAIN WINDS FROM 15 TO
30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN COCONINO AND
NORTHWESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY, NAVAJO, AND
APACHE COUNTIES.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AS LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND COLORADO WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE LAST AND FINAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRIMARILY
DAYTIME SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FRIDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC/MAS
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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