Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 160339
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. A STRONGER MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BOTH DAYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE STRONG MOISTURE SURGE WEDNESDAY AND PATH
AND TIMING OF REMNANTS FROM ODILE ON THURSDAY.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LOOK FOR CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. FOR
TUESDAY...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE GOOD AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED DAYTIME INTO
EVENING STORMS. AREAS NORTH OF THE RIM SHOULD HAVE ISOLATED STORM
COVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
VALID 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AREAS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. LATEST MODEL RUNS STILL
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE
TUESDAY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MOVE IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY.

THIS IS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE...WHOSE
CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE OVER ROCKY POINT MEXICO THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS IS MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO...AND MODEL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NOW SUGGEST THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE TIME FRAME AND PATH THAT THE REMNANTS FROM ODILE TAKE ON
THURSDAY STILL A BIT UNCLEAR AND ALL ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND WATCHES.

FRIDAY ONWARD...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON INTERACTION
BETWEEN LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM ODILE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE BROAD BRUSH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF ODILE. OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS. AFTER 18Z...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOST
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF A KGCN-KFLG-KSOW LINE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTH. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS WITH STORMS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH 11 AM MST WEDS THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZ
ZONES AZZ007-008-012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/DL/RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.