Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231124

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
424 AM MST Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible across Navajo and Apache counties through this afternoon.
Otherwise cool conditions will persist this weekend as a low
pressure system sits over the Great Basin. Expect freezing
temperatures for much of the high country Sunday and Monday
mornings. A chance for precipitation returns starting Wednesday.


.DISCUSSION...A large scale trough of low pressure will remain
over most of the western U.S. for the next several days. There is
a surface cold front along a line from Grand Junction-Bryce
Canyon-Las Vegas that will move into northern AZ this afternoon.

We are seeing clouds, widely scattered showers and a few tstorms
early this morning east of a line from Payson to Kayenta. To our
west, an upper level disturbance is noted over central Nevada. For
today, both these features to move eastward. Thus look or
decreasing shower coverage across Navajo then and Apache counties
this afternoon while the upper level disturbance brushes the AZ UT
border and brings a slight chance of afternoon showers to the
Kiabab Plateau.

A freeze warning is in effect for early Sunday morning as colder
air and light winds move into the northland. The warning is for
zones above 6500 feet and along or north of the Mogollon rim,
where temps from 24 to 32 degrees are forecast.

Fair and dry weather is expected from Sunday through Tuesday
night. Both high and low temperatures will be below normal.

Progs are in fair agreement showing another disturbance dropping
southward and developing into a closed low centered over western
Arizona from Wednesday through Friday. Precipitation chances were
raised for this period especially across Navajo add Apache
counties. This system looks warm enough to preclude snow for all
at this time.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hours with localized ceilings near 5 kft agl overnight and into
Saturday morning over higher terrain east of KSEZ. Showers will
continue across portions of central and northern Navajo and Apache
counties this morning. This area of showers is forecast to expand
southward to include the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
over the next few hours. Some of these showers may develop into
isolated thunderstorms during the day. Winds will increase after
16Z, becoming south to southwest from 10-20 knots with gusts from 20-
30 knots at most places. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...On Saturday, expect breezy south to southwest winds
and below normal temperatures. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are forecast across Navajo and Apache Counties. On Sunday, look for
light winds, dry weather and well below normal temperatures.

Monday through Wednesday...Expect light winds and below normal
temperatures. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase on
Wednesday as a low sets up over the area.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM MST Sunday FOR




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