Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 060403
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
903 PM MST SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ZONES STARTING TUESDAY...WHILE THE
EASTERN ZONES REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ACTIVE MONSOON DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. NUMEROUS
LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN...WITH YAVAPAI COUNTY SEEING SOME
OF THE HIGHEST TOTALS...ESPECIALLY FROM PRESCOTT/PRESCOTT VALLEY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE SEVERAL FLOOD PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO WANE THIS EVENING AND
THAT TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A STANDARD AMOUNT OF
TWEAKING TO PRECIP/CLOUD FORECAST SOON...BUT LITTLE IN TERMS OF
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...IT HAS BEEN A RATHER ACTIVE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. A FEW PRODUCED HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER
AND THERE WAS LOCAL HEAVY RAIN. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME STORMS MAY LAST WELL INTO
THE NIGHT.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY TO LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM AND WINDOW ROCK AREAS WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS
WEST OF A LINE FROM PAGE TO PAYSON FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRYING SHOULD REACH EASTERN ZONES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE..SCATTERED TSRA/-SHRA WILL
CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING SOUTHWEST OF A KGCN-KFLG-KPAN
LINE...WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED -SHRA ELSEWHERE. THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL REDEVELOP MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
WILL STEADILY DECREASE MOISTURE LEVELS RESULTING IN A DOWNTURN OF
STORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE...WITH DECREASING
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/MAS
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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