Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242335
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
435 PM MST SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST REGION ON MONDAY WITH STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
FROM MORNING TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA OVER NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE UP ELSEWHERE. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO ARIZONA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS FROM 55 TO 65 MPH HAVE PROMPTED US TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE GUSTY WINDS FROM
40 TO 55 MPH ARE FORECAST WITH WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME BREEZY WESTERLIES ON TUESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS RESPOND TO A PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHING ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN IN WESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SPREADING WESTWARD
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A THIRD LOW SWINGS INTO THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTD FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS...CIGS BCMG SCT MVFR OVER HIGHER TRRN ALONG AND NW OF A
LINE FROM KAYENTA TO FLAGSTAFF TO PRESCOTT. BREEZY SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT...SW WINDS INCRS AFT 16Z MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH SUSTAIN WINDS AT 20-35KT AND G35-60KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. BREEZY TO WIND CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH VERY STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM NORTHWARD. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
PORTIONS OF APACHE COUNTY. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR PORTION OF NAVAJO COUNTY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH FEWER SHOWERS AND
LESS WIND ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEDNESDAY EXPECT A BRIEF PASSING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO RAIN
AND INCREASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...COOL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZE
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ004>010-012-
015-016-018-037-038.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ011-013-
014-017-039-040.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ111-114.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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