Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191627
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
927 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...FAVORING MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
INTO NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
I INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THIS IS LIKELY A MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR TO THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM BELLEMONT SHOWS A MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH MAY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THIS
MORNING...BUT IS BREAKABLE WITH TDS IN THE 50S AND FORECAST HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S. HI RES MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SREF POP FORECASTS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
INCREASE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS FORECAST FOR TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY...SO EXPECT PROLONGED
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER STRONGER...NEARLY
STATIONARY STORMS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /315 AM MST/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WHICH DRAWS INCREASED MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AN
UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH NEVADA AND INTERACTS WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA. ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL
FAVOR AREAS FROM GRAND CANYON TO SHOW LOW WEST...SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND MUCH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DOWNWARD...AND THEY MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED ENTIRELY IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. A DEEPER AND COLDER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST LATE NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER WITH A
RETURN FOR RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH ISOLATED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE
STRONGER STORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS REGIONS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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