Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 201643

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
945 AM MST Thu Oct 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A high pressure system will move slowly across the
southwest region through Sunday with high temperatures running 10
degrees above seasonal normals each day. A low pressure system
will move into the West Coast on Sunday bringing up additional
moisture into Arizona from the south. A few showers will start by
Sunday night with chances for rainfall peaking by Monday
afternoon and evening. Shower activity will diminish on Tuesday.
High pressure will build back in across the state next Wednesday with
a return to dry weather conditions lasting through the end of next


.DISCUSSION...Fair and locally breezy conditions this morning will
give way to a warm and sunny afternoon with diminishing winds. A
strong ridge of high pressure will continue to move over the
Southwest...bringing fair weather to N. Arizona with maximum
temperatures about 10 degrees above normal through Saturday. Only a
few minor tweaks will be made to the short term (winds), otherwise
the current forecast is in good shape.


.PREV DISCUSSION.../338 AM MST/...Expect warm temperatures for
October under a high pressure ridge with daytime high`s running 10
degrees above our seasonal normals. Northeasterly winds will start
to fade later this afternoon becoming breezy southwesterlies each
day through Sunday.

On Sunday the ridge shifts east and a deep Pacific low
moves into the West Coast. A deep southerly fetch between the high
over Texas and the low off the West Coast will pull up additional
moisture from the subtropics. A few showers may start across
Arizona by Sunday evening. However a short wave upper level trough
moving from West to East across the state will help enhance
shower activity and rainfall production from Monday afternoon to
Tuesday morning.

Shower activity will taper off on Tuesday as the upper trough
moves eastward and a upper ridge builds in over Arizona. Expect
dry weather conditions from Wednesday through next Friday under
continued high pressure.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z forecast...VFR conditions will continue
with mostly clear skies through the forecast period. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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