Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 220350

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
850 PM MST Fri Apr 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and warm conditions through the weekend.
High pressure will bring light winds through Saturday night.
Windy conditions will return for the afternoons from Sunday
through Wednesday. A cooling trend and a chance for showers
returns on Wednesday.


.UPDATE...Temperatures warmed nicely this afternoon, particularly
along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Flagstaff`s high temperature
reached 10 degrees above normal for today. Made minor temperature
and cloud adjustments to account for current trends but the
remainder of the forecast is in good shape.


.PREV DISCUSSION /325 PM MST/...Skies are mostly clear across the
northland this afternoon, with just a few thin cirrus wafting by.
Models are in good agreement through Tuesday morning. In the
short term a ridge of high pressure will build across the desert
southwest through Saturday evening. Look for dry and very warm
conditions across our area, with light and variable winds

On Sunday, we return to west southwest flow aloft, and have a
disturbance crossing the Great Basin. Expect gusty SW surface
winds for the afternoon, sustained at 15-30 mph with gusts to 40
mph. Fastest speeds are expected along and north of the Mogollon
Rim and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for most of this area
Sunday afternoon. Max temperatures to be around 10 degrees above
normal for the weekend.

Monday through Tuesday. Westerly flow aloft will keep dry and
warm weather in the forecast through Tuesday. Afternoon winds to
persist, from the W-SW with gusts from 25 to 40 mph, the fastest
gusts across Navajo and Apache counties. Dry weather to continue
Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Friday. Operational models begin to diverge for
this time frame. The large picture has a broad trough of low
pressure across the Great Basin, and a cold front aligned west to
east and sitting across southern Utah. Model timing of precip
varies, at this point Wednesday and Wednesday night look to be the
first shot, with lingering showers Thursday as the cold front
slips southward. Highest precip chances initially are across the
northeast quarter of the state and along the Utah state line.
Yavapai county currently dry for the next 7 days.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...VFR conditions are forecast
over the next 24 hours. Winds generally in the 5-15 kt range with
variable direction. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will bring generally light winds and
much above normal temperatures Saturday. A passing trough will cause
strong southwest winds for most locations along and north of the
Mogollon Rim on Sunday, and a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect
from Noon to 7 PM MST.

Monday through Wednesday...Gusty southwest winds will continue
Monday with critical fire weather conditions possible again mainly
northeast of the Mogollon Rim. Increasing humidity is forecast for
Tuesday and especially Wednesday as another trough approaches. Windy
conditions should continue with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon
through Sunday evening FOR AZZ104-106-107-109-111>116-139-140.




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