Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 222218
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
317 PM MST FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO UTAH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TRENDING FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY WEST OF I-17 AND HIGHWAY 89 TO PAGE AS LOW PRESSURE CENTER
SPINS AROUND IN FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND INTO UTAH BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 TO THE UTAH BOARDER AFTER THIS EVENING. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER BELOW 8000 FEET OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU
TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING SATURDAY
IN THAT AREA.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN...MAINLY NORTH OF THE 1-40 CORRIDOR NORTH INTO
UTAH.

A TRANSITION TO FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA...SOME WITH
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 30KT...WILL CONTINUE TIL AROUND 03Z NW
OF A KPRC-KFLG-KOV7 LINE...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS S-SW 15-25
KT GUSTS TO 35KT TIL 02...FASTEST ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
AFTER 05Z THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AN AREA OF STEADY PRECIPITATION
COULD DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE
KGCN/KPGA TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA...WITH LOCAL IFR. ISOLD-SCTD -SHRA/-TSRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ


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