Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242149
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
250 pM MST SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will increase across northern Arizona
from south to north through Tuesday. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms, especially over the mountains. On Wednesday drier
air should move areas north of Interstate 40 leading to only
isolated storm chances there. Elsewhere, expected scattered
convective activity to continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION....We have seen several strong storms this
afternoon along and east of the Mogollon rim and Kaibab Plateau.
Upper level winds are pushing storm anvils to the northeast while
outflow winds are converging with sw flow below H7 this afternoon.
We are feeling good that scattered storm coverage to further develop
across the rest the Mogollon rim this afternoon. Mesoanalysis shows
convective inhibition to continue over much of Yavapai and nrn Gila
counties into this evening and not sure how far storms will develop
away from the rim.

The excessive heat warning for the Grand Canyon Below 4000 feet will
expire at 8 pm this evening.

Monday and Tuesday - Subtropical moisture to move northward
through Tuesday due to light easterly then southerly mid level
wind trajectories. Moderate to high grade monsoon activity is
expected across northern Arizona both days with greatest coverage
during the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday - Thursday -The mid level high pressure cell to become
centered over SW Utah. A drier northerly flow is forecast to develop
and kill thunderstorm chances for areas north of I-40. Elsewhere the
typical monsoon pattern of scattered daytime and isolated overnight
convective activity to continue.

Friday - Sunday - Operational model spread develops on Friday as the
ECMWF continues to show the high center over sw utah with the dry
flow into nrn AZ. The GFS develops moist easterly flow over all of
nrn az. We will go with climo storm chances for now.

&&

.AVIATION....For the 00Z package...Scattered SHRA/TSRA will
continue to develop and move across northern AZ this afternoon and
evening. Conditions to remain mostly VFR with local MVFR/IFR in +RA
possible. Gusty winds up to 35 kts also possible near any storms.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM
MST this evening FOR AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...SUK


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff



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