191
FXUS65 KFGZ 092300
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
400 PM MST Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect very warm temperatures through Thursday, with
slight cooling into the weekend and next week. Storm coverage will
remain isolated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong ridge centered over east-central Arizona
will slide westward and then flatten a bit over the next few days.
Daytime temperatures are likely peaking today, but will be close
tomorrow and still above average heading into the weekend. This
ridge is almost too warm for convection, with some capping noted on
the soundings this morning. Additionally, the ridge positioning and
streamlines do not favor moisture advection into Arizona.

What this all means is that warm temperatures will stick around and
thunderstorms will be hard to come by for at least the next several
days, maybe even the entire forecast period. Mainly isolated storm
coverage will be the rule heading into the weekend, we`ll see of any
of this orientation changes by next week, but looking bleak for now.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 10/00Z through Friday 11/00Z...VFR expected.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA along a KFLG-KSOW line through 02Z, then storms
return along and south of a KSOW-KSJN line after 19Z. Gusty/erratic
winds possible near storms. Otherwise, W winds 10-15 kts gusting
to 20-25 kts through 03Z, becoming light and variable overnight,
then W-SW winds 10-20 kts with gusts 30-35 kts after 16Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 11/00Z through Sunday 13/00Z...VFR expected.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA along and south of a KSOW-KSJN line 19Z-02Z on
Friday. SW-W winds 10-20 kts gusting to 25-35 kts through 03Z/Thu,
then 10-15 kts gusting to 25 kts on Friday and Saturday. Light
and variable winds expected during the overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Hot and dry conditions.
Minimum RH values between 5-20% each afternoon. Breezy winds on
Thursday, out of the west at 15-20 mph gusting to 35 mph. Localized
critical fire weather possible, especially in the Little Colorado
River Valley where the highest winds are expected. Winds are a bit
calmer on Friday, becoming SW-W 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Slight
chance for isolated showers/thunderstorms in the White Mountains
each afternoon.

Saturday through Monday...Hot, with increasing chances for
showers/thunderstorms across the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.
Minimum RH 10-20%, with daytime highs a few degrees above normal
each afternoon. Winds are generally west 10-20 mph each afternoon,
but gusty/erratic winds possible near storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ018-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff