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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 110358
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 PM MST THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS EVENING CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST
OF FLAGSTAFF. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT
WHILE INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS FORECAST INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WINDING DOWN EXCEPT FOR
CENTRAL NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. IN CENTRAL NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING...HOWEVER THE INTENSITY AND
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN STAYING FROM LIGHT TO MODERATE IN
INTENSITY.

OVER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DECREASING FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT FOR EAST OF CROWN KING NEAR
SUNSET POINT A MODERATE THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES AT 845 PM MST. SINCE
THE ACTIVITY IN THE WATCH AREA HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED
OVER YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES TODAY...AIDED BY A DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN PLACE...THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS HAS BEEN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...THOUGH SMALL HAIL HAS ALSO ACCOMPANIED
SOME STORMS. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING....EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE OVER YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY CONTINUING WELL INTO THE
EVENING MAINLY OVER COCONINO COUNTY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST CAUSING A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE KAIBAB AND
COCONINO PLATEAUS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. IN
ADDITION...THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO
WARM BY A FEW DEGREES.

SUNDAY ONWARD...MODELS PREDICT ANOTHER UPTICK IN MOISTURE
BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...SCT -SHRA/-TSRA CONTINUING THROUGH
08Z OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
ISOLD +TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA TO
REDEVELOP BY AROUND 18Z FRIDAY WITH THE MOST STORM COVERAGE OVER THE
EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
ARIZONA TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC/JJ
AVIATION.......TC/MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF