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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241651
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. STARTING MONDAY...A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM 5-10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE PRODUCED BY THE RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR
NORTHWEST. AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIM WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE GRIDS REFLECT THESE TRENDS AND NO UPDATES
ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

A LITTLE FARTHER OUT...A SUB-TROPICAL RAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS LIKELY
FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A HIGH PROBABILITY
EVENT...WITH LOW TO LOCALLY MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE 12Z GFS HAS DEVELOPED A DRAMATIC CHANGE FOR
THE SECOND SYSTEM. THE NEW RUN NOW INJECTS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS
INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM...CREATING A LARGE AMOUNT OF
QPF OVER ARIZONA. THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION RIGHT NOW...BUT WE
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER SKC-SCT CIRRUS. SURFACE WINDS N-NE 10-20KT ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM/KAIBAB PLATEAU...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ELSEWHERE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....PETERSON
AVIATION...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF