Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231123

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
423 AM MST Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Rain and snow along a cold front will push eastward
through the area this morning. Additional showers will develop
this afternoon and early evening, with snow levels around 6000
feet. Dry conditions are forecast Friday with additional low
pressure systems possibly affecting the region Saturday and again
early next week.


.DISCUSSION...A low pressure system was located just west of the
area this morning. Deep moisture was pulled northward ahead of the
system yesterday evening, resulting in a line of showers and
thunderstorms through mid evening. By late evening, snow levels
had lowered to 6000 to 6500 feet in a very persistent precipitation
band that set up over Yavapai and Coconino counties including
Flagstaff and Williams. Heavy snow continued in these areas from
late evening through this morning, and is just beginning to
decrease slightly in intensity over the past hour. Expect this
band to move into eastern Arizona after 7-8 AM. By later this
afternoon, convective showers are likely to redevelop over much of
northern Arizona with snow levels around 6000 feet. Temperatures
will be above freezing so most locations will see only light
additional accumulation. A few areas that experience persistent
showers could see some snow accumulations of an inch or two this
afternoon and early evening.

The system moves east of the state tonight with brief ridging and
much warmer temperatures for Friday. Then next trough will affect
the area Saturday into Saturday night, bringing a chance of
precipitation mainly to areas from Flagstaff northward. At this
point, amounts appear light with snow levels 7000 to 8000 feet.
Fair and warmer conditions return Sunday into early Monday, then
more unsettled weather looks to return to the region with cooler
and showery weather possible later Monday through at least


.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...A cold front will slowly move from
west to east through this morning. This front will be just east of
KFLG at 12z, near KINW by 14z and along a KSJN-KRQE line by 19z.
Expect several hours of MVFR/IFR with the front, with rain and snow.
Snow levels are 6000-6500 feet, with LIFR conditons above 6500 feet.
Precipitation will become more convective in nature behind the
front. Heavier showers will produce IFR/LIFR conditions with rain
and snow. Clearing skies from west to east this evening, all areas
VFR by 02z-04z Friday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Winter Weather Advisory until
7 AM MST this morning FOR AZZ015.




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