Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191034
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RESULTING MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WINGS OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES
ARIZONA...UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE COOLING AIR
MASS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EMBEDDED IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MUCH DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
CALIFORNIA LOW. TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN MODELS. THE
GFS BRINGS A FAIRLY STRONG UPWARD MOTION BULLSEYE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS
THE UPWARD MOTION MAXIMUM THROUGH FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY DOWNPLAYING ANY CONNECTION BETWEEN THIS UPWARD
MOTION MAXIMUM AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS A FAIRLY
COMMON LOOKING PRECIPITATION FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF A TAP IS MADE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE JUST TO THE SOUTH WATCH OUT.

IN ANY EVENT...KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION. STRONGER STORMS THIS
WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. MORE NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED WEST OF A KPGA-KFLG-KSOW LINE THIS
MORNING...SPREADING EAST AFT 18Z. AREAS OF MVFR WILL BE COMMON WITH
ISOLATED IFR. LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY IN +RA ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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