Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 191206

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
505 AM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect very windy and colder conditions today, with
areas of rain and snow through the evening. Very cold temperatures
are expected tonight and Tuesday, with some warming on Wednesday. A
chance of rain and snow, along with another cooling trend, arrives
again on Thursday and Friday.


.DISCUSSION...Numerous upslope bands of rain and snow pellets have
developed from about Williams, all the way to the White Mtns this
morning. This most intense bands are producing lightning and as much
as a quarter inch of liquid in an hour or two. Actual snow has been
tough to come by as pre-frontal snow levels are high and most frozen
precipitation has been in pellet form. Some of the more intense
bands are coating the ground with snow pellets, but not much depth.

As the front approaches, snow levels will fall and saturation depth
should increase. A few hours of intense precipitation are likely
along the front, this is when most areas will see the accumulation.
The front will slow down a bit and encounter deeper moisture along
the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mtns, this will prolong the
precipitation in these areas.

The other story is wind, most areas will see Advisory or Warning
gusts today, decreasing rapidly from west to east behind the front
this evening.

Very cold and dry air will move in tonight and Tuesday, with most
precipitation coming to an end.

Current models keep an active storm track in our area, with chances
for rain and snow returning Thursday and Friday. Some moderation is
likley over the weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Strong southwest winds will
persist through the day today ahead of an approaching cold front.
Most areas will be 15-25 kts gusting near 40 kts. The strongest
winds will be north and east of KFLG at 30-35 kts with gusts around
55 kts. Rain and mountain snow showers with MVFR conditions will
continue to expand in coverage over the mountainous terrain through
the morning and persist through this afternoon. Expect isolated IFR
conditions in snow and blowing snow in mountainous areas above 6kft
MSL. Showers will decrease with conditions improving west to east
aft 00Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A strong low pressure system and cold front will
move through the area through Tuesday bringing much colder and
unsettled weather. Expect strong southwest winds today gusting near
50 mph for most areas, with the strongest winds gusting 60+ mph east
of Flagstaff to the New Mexico border. Rain and mountain snow
showers will continue through this evening before tapering off from
west to east. The most snow accumulation is forecast along the
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Dry and much colder weather will
follow for Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...A cold and unsettled weather pattern will
remain over Arizona with a chance for additional precipitation
returning on Thursday and Friday.


Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for AZZ006>008-038.

High Wind Warning from 7 AM until 5 PM MST this afternoon for AZZ005-

Wind Advisory until 7 AM MST this morning for AZZ005-009>014-039-040.

Winter Storm Warning above 6500 feet until 5 AM MST Tuesday for

Winter Weather Advisory above 6500 feet until 11 PM MST this evening
for AZZ004-015.




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