Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231705

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1005 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect colder temperatures today, behind a cold front
that moved through overnight. Cool and dry conditions will
develop through Saturday. An unsettled pattern arrives late in
the weekend and early next week, with better chances for rain and


Current short-term forecast looks in good shape with no major
updates anticipated this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /445 AM MST/...Much colder and drier air will
move across much of the CWA during the day today, as a cold front
moves to the east.

Cold and dry zonal flow will dominate the weather pattern through
Saturday, before a series of winter storms affect the southwest
United States Sunday through Tuesday. Models still differ on the
possibility of a sub-tropical moisture tap with the storm on
Monday/Tuesday, as well as the ability to phase with a colder
northern stream system. This will have large impacts on the amount
of snowfall in our area. For now, we have a minor event arriving
Sunday, with higher POPs on Monday and Tuesday. We have played it
conservative for now, until we see if the northern stream will
phase with a deeper moisture tap. Stay tuned.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hours. Most areas will experience wind speeds between
10 to 20 knots. However, isolated gusts above 35 knots will be
possible. Winds to become light after 00Z. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.






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