Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 211654

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
954 AM MST Wed Jun 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Hot conditions will persist through the week with the
warmest day expected today. Temperatures will begin to trend
downward Thursday into the weekend. A few isolated showers or
thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible across the White
Mountains this afternoon.


.UPDATE...No major forecast updates needed this morning as the
short term forecast remains on track. Hot temperatures will peak
this afternoon and Heat Warnings and Advisories remain in effect.
The most at risk areas today are the lowest elevations of the
Grand Canyon and Glen Canyon (Page area) along with Yavapai and
Gila County. Those with outdoor plans or activities should avoid
the hottest part of the day, dress for the heat, and stay


.PREV DISCUSSION /322 AM MST/...Strong high pressure centered over
the area will result in continued hot temperatures through the
remainder of the week. The warmest day of the week is expected
today. With less cloud cover and thunderstorm activity than the
previous few days, all time record high temperatures are within
reach for several locations across northern Arizona. Isolated
thunderstorm potential this afternoon will be confined to the
White Mountains. Gusty winds will be possible with any storms
that do develop. A slow diminishing trend in the temperatures is
still expected Thursday into the weekend, but they will still
remain well above normal. Even though temperatures will slowly
decrease into the weekend, the heat will remain at dangerous
levels. Based upon this and coordination with surrounding
offices, opted to extend the Excessive Heat Warnings for the
lower elevations until Sunday evening. While temperatures will
remain around 5 degrees above normal early next week, the heat
risk will be significantly less than the ongoing heat wave.

Thunderstorm chances decrease across the entire area Thursday
through Saturday. Moisture increases again on Sunday and into
early next week with thunderstorm chances increasing again mainly
over Apache County.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Isolated -TSRA are expected
mainly over the Chuska/White Mountain areas after 19-20Z, possibly
moving southwest of a line from KPAN-KSOW after 23-00Z. Gusty
outflow winds are likely with any storm.  Smoke from area wildfires
may lead to localized MVFR conditions Thursday morning. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Westerly flow aloft to bring dry mid level
air into western and central Arizona today. Isolated thunderstorms
with little rainfall and strong wind gusts still possible over the
White Mountains. Max temperatures should peak today, all time record
values are threatened at several locations. On Thursday, 20 foot
winds to be noticeably faster and may approach critical values.

Friday through Sunday...Dry and hot conditions to persist through
Saturday. Expect southwest to west breezes each afternoon. Moisture
looks to return on Sunday with chances for showers and storms across
southern Apache county.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MST Thursday
FOR AZZ004-007>017-039-040.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday FOR AZZ018-038.

Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST Sunday FOR AZZ005-006-037.




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