Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
FXUS65 KFGZ 132212
Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1005 AM MST Fri Jan 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS...A Pacific storm system will bring unsettled weather to
northern Arizona through Monday. Look for light showers across
western parts of our state today. Shower chances increase across
the area on Saturday and Saturday night and then slowly decrease
from west to east through Monday. Fair weather should return on
.UPDATE...Radar shows that as echoes fill in closer to the site,
cloud heights are slowly decreasing and some light precipitation
may eventually begin to reach the ground. Minor updates were made
to precipitation chances through the afternoon, though the general
idea of scattered light rain and snow showers still looks good.
Hi-res model ensembles indicate that precipitation chances will go
up along the eastern Mogollon Rim and over the White Mountains
starting this evening. Evening precip chances were updated
accordingly for this expectation as well.
.PREV DISCUSSION /442 AM MST/... Low pressure was centered just
off the central California coast this morning. Model continuity
remains good as they move the low southward to the Baja California
coast by Saturday. From Saturday onward, the low will then turn
eastward eventually moving over the central United States. Plenty
of moisture to move northward across Arizona through Sunday.
For today - scattered light rain and snow showers are expected
west of a Kayenta to Prescott line with snow levels in the
6500-7500 foot range. Shower chances go up tonight and expand
eastward, but any accumulations should be light.
On Saturday - Models continue to move the low from northern Baja
towards southwestern New Mexico. Sufficient moisture and large
scale upward motion should be present north of the low center to
wrap rain and snow across much of Arizona. A warmer air mass will
be drawn into the low allowing snow levels to rise to 8500 feet
over the White Mountains and 7500 feet in the Flagstaff area
during the day.
Saturday night into Sunday morning looks to be the period of
heaviest precipitation, with snow levels falling 500-1000 feet
from Saturday afternoon. Total liquid precipitation amounts should
range from 0.25-0.75 inches across northern Arizona. The highest
amounts will generally be over the White Mountains, Chuska
Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim. Elevations above 8000 feet
will see snow accumulation in the 5 to 10 inch range on Saturday
night with the highest amounts confined to the White Mountains.
Sunday and Monday - unsettled and cool weather to continue as a
broad trough of low pressure remains over the desert southwest.
For this reason it looks like there will be a good chance of
showers on Sunday for areas east of a line from Page to Black
Canyon City diminishing to a slight chance across the same area on
Monday as the low heads eastward. In any event, the air mass will
dry some with cold overnight lows Sunday and Monday.
Expect dry weather on Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure aloft
moves across Arizona and the desert southwest.
Thursday- Models are showing a potent cold front arriving here.
Still 7 days out but this one could be the strongest and coldest
so far this season should todays progs verify.
.AVIATION...For the 18Z forecast...Most areas will remain in VFR
conditions through 12Z Saturday with ceilings in the 4-6 kft AGL
range. However, there will be some isolated to scattered rain/snow
showers which could briefly cause some MVFR/IFR conditions, with the
best chances along and NW of a KPRC-KFLG-K0V7 line through this
afternoon, then spreading to the remainder of northern AZ after 00Z.
Snow levels 6500-7500 ft MSL. Aviation discussion not updated for
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