Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 232229

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
329 PM MST FRI SEP 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect cooler and drier conditions for most of the
area today, behind a cold front that moved through overnight.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue in eastern Arizona,
before the front moves out of the state late this afternoon. Dry
and slightly warmer conditions are anticipated for the weekend.


Clouds and showers have just about cleared northern Arizona this
afternoon. Visible satellite shows a few clouds in the Four
Corners area as well as over the White Mountains, and a few in-
cloud lightning flashes were detected just after 2 pm MST near the
Four Corners. Those have moved to the east, and we should expect
all precipitation to move out of northern Arizona by 5 pm MST. The
coldest night of the next seven is expected tonight, with early
Saturday morning temperatures supporting some frost and/or
freezes in some high elevation locations.

Expect dry weather on Saturday as Arizona is influenced by
northerly flow on the back side of the trough stretched from the
northern Plains into the southern Rockies. Late on Sunday, low
precip chances start to creep back into the forecast as the
southern portion of the trough closes off and retrogrades back
west over Sonora, Mexico by Monday morning. In addition, expect
gusty northeasterly winds from Saturday night through perhaps
Monday evening/Tuesday morning, mainly near and south of
Interstate 40. The 18Z GFS depicts the low getting picked up in
the southwesterly flow and moving across Arizona from Tuesday into
Wednesday. NAEFS ensemble members show some spread with the
movement of this low, with the 12Z mean moving the low northward
somewhat more slowly than the deterministic GFS. Relative maxima
in precip chances roughly follow the NAEFS mean.

Once the low exits the area, expect a period of largely dry
southwesterly flow and near average temperatures to round out the


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions with mostly clear
skies through Saturday. Gusty west winds decreasing by 02Z, with
lighter wind on Saturday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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