Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271014
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
314 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS
FAVORABLE POSITION...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR
STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF RATHER STRONG STORMS MOVED THROUGH
SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS SINCE WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND MOVED INTO WESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. IN
ADDITION...A PERSISTENT LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NEAR
FLAGSTAFF ACROSS THE NAVAJO NATION HAS BEEN SLOWLY PROGRESSING TO THE
NORTHWEST. THESE TWO AREAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH ANY FURTHER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE FROM FAR WESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY TO NORTHWEST COCONINO COUNTY
AND FAR NORTHERN APACHE/NAVAJO COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL BE CENTERED
GENERALLY EAST OF AZ TODAY LEAVING US IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW IN NORTHERN MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTH THROUGH THE STATE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION MAY DELAY THE START OF AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDED FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE THIS
EVENING...WE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH INTO NORTHERN AZ
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AGAIN ENHANCING AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION.

OVERALL THE NEXT TWO DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE MONSOON DAYS
WITH THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT BEING HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW
MOVING STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVER AZ TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOVER CLOSE
TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. EXPECT
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 18Z THEN INCREASING STORM
COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IMPACTS ARE VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM
HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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