Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190337
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
840 PM MST FRI JUL 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A CAP ON
CONVECTIVE STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY
WRINKLE IN THIS FORECAST WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WHICH MAY BRING A FEW STORMS TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA BY THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS PRODUCED A LAYER
OF SUBSIDENCE OR DOWNWARD MOVING AIR IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
STABLE LAYER HAS CAPPED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND PREVENTED SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS. GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL WORK TO BREAK DOWN THIS STABLE LAYER TONIGHT
THOUGH SATURDAY. THIS MEANS WE HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTH ON SATURDAY MORNING HIGHER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BY SATURDAY EVENING THE TROUGH CONTINUES ON
ITS NORTHWARD JOURNEY INTO NEVADA AND UTAH. THE MID LEVEL CAP
RETURNS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OVER ARIZONA.
MODELS ALSO SHOW DRIER SOUTHWEST AIR MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC
WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL TREND OUR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/LANGEVIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.