Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 192232

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
332 PM MST Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy weather with seasonable temperatures
will continue through Wednesday. Windy and cooler conditions are
expected from Thursday through the weekend, with a slight chance
of showers at times.


A trough across the western U.S. will continue to deepen and dig
southward over the next few days. Southwest winds on Wednesday
will again be quite breezy like today. A further uptick in winds
looks likely for Thursday, and a wind advisory may well be needed
to account for the gusty winds across for portions of northern
Arizona. As the trough nears and pushes across the state, a chance
for showers will develop late Thursday and into Friday, with much
cooler daytime temperatures developing for Friday and the
weekend. In addition, many locations above 6500 may experience the
first significant freeze of the season on Saturday/Sunday
mornings. Climatologically, this is about right on time for when
we normally experience this.


.AVIATION...For the 00z package...Expect VFR conditions for the
next 24 hours. Look for surface winds of 15-25 kt gusting to 35
kt with the strongest winds along and north of the Mogollon
rim...decreasing after 02z. Another similar round of winds on
Wednesday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A broad area of low pressure will sit over the
western United States for several days. The main impact across
northern Arizona will be increasing southwest winds each
afternoon, strongest on Thursday. Look for a slight decrease in
speeds for Friday.

Moisture is expected to increase across northern Arizona on
Thursday and Friday leading to a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. A cold front should cross the area early Saturday,
with much drier and cooler air behind the front, lasting through
early next week.






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