Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271607
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
905 AM MST WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION... WE HAVE INCREASED OPAQUE SKY COVER AMOUNTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ PER SATELLITE
AND WEB CAM IMAGERY. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 345 AM...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND THE REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY...STRONGER RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH ONE FINAL WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. THIS COULD BRING SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE WEST COAST RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
OVER ARIZONA. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (FOR THE FIRST TIME
SINCE EARLY MAY!)...AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER AS THIS
AREA COULD BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. MODELS
ALSO INDICATING SOME INCREASING WIND MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
&&

.AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND GRAND CANYON REGIONS.
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEATHER WILL TREND WARMER AND DRIER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE FOUR CORNERS AND GRAND CANYON REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
THE FOUR CORNERS AND GRAND CANYON REGIONS ON FRIDAY. DRY AND WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...41/JJ
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...KD/BOHLIN



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