Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242228
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. STARTING MONDAY...A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM 5-10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE PRODUCED BY THE RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR
NORTHWEST. AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIM WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SUB-TROPICAL RAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A HIGH PROBABILITY EVENT...WITH LOW TO LOCALLY
MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS. MODELS ARE REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH THIS IN
THE AFTERNOON RUNS...WE RAISED POPS A BIT MORE...BUT THE OVERALL
LOOK WILL REMAIN THE SAME.

LATER IN THE WEEK...A WEAK MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...ROUGHLY ANCHORED SOUTH OF THE MEAN WEST COAST
RIDGE. AS LONG AS THIS LOW REMAINS IN PLACE...IT WILL HAVE THE
ABILITY TO SEND OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OUR WAY.
MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS HAPPENING AGAIN NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES.

THE 12Z GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CANADIAN...DEVELOPED A DRAMATIC
CHANGE FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM. THESE RUNS NOW INJECT A COLD CANADIAN
AIRMASS INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM...CREATING A LARGE
AMOUNT OF QPF OVER ARIZONA. THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION...BUT THE
18Z GFS STILL HAS SOME...ALBEIT WEAKER...SUPPORT FOR THIS. WE HAVE
RAISED POPS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT
NEARLY TO THE EXTENT THE OUTLIER SOLUTIONS SUGGEST. WE WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS...AS THINGS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER SKC-SCT CIRRUS. SURFACE WINDS N-NE 10-20KT ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM/KAIBAB PLATEAU...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ELSEWHERE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....PETERSON
AVIATION...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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