Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 261727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1027 AM MST Wed Apr 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer afternoon temperatures are expected today and
Thursday with breezy winds beginning this afternoon. A passing
disturbance will also bring a chance of showers to far northeast
Arizona tonight. Wind speeds will increase Friday as a cold front
moves south through the state. This will bring colder temperatures
and a chance of showers to mainly eastern Arizona into Saturday.
Fair and warmer weather returns for Sunday.


.DISCUSSION...This morning`s satellite imagery reveals mostly
clear skies across northern Arizona. Scattered to broken cloud
cover observed across much of Nevada and Utah will increase
across the northern quarter of the state this afternoon as a
shortwave trough clips the region. In addition, a chance of
showers is forecast during the evening and overnight hours along
the Arizona/Utah border.

The current forecast captures this evolution well, and no
forecast updates are anticipated this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /401 AM MST/...A brief lull in winds combined
with a dry air mass has allowed temperatures to plummet to the low
to mid 20s this morning in the high country above 6000 feet, with
30s/40s for lower elevations. Temperatures by this afternoon
should warm to near normal for late April which will be several
degrees warmer than yesterday. Light wind this morning will
increase by mid to late afternoon as the next disturbance
approaches. Breezy winds will continue overnight along/north of
the Mogollon Rim. There will be a chance of showers with a passing
disturbance near the four corners overnight with dry conditions
elsewhere. Wind speeds will increase further by Thursday afternoon
and areas east of a Page-Flagstaff-Payson line could see gusts
exceeding 40 mph.

Low pressure diving south to the four corners area Friday and
Saturday will bring much cooler temperatures, on the order of
10-15 degrees below normal. There is also a chance of showers and
possibly a thunderstorm just ahead of the front Friday, mainly
affecting eastern Arizona, then a slight chance of a few
lingering instability showers Saturday. Much drier air behind the
front over the weekend should lead to a hard freeze in the 20s
for the higher elevations each morning, with lows even approaching
the freezing mark for valley areas north of the Mogollon Rim such
as Winslow and St Johns. A strong warming trend is expected Sunday
through Tuesday as ridging builds from the west coast toward


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package... VFR conditions are expected to
continue over the next 24 hrs. Breezy westerly winds will increase
this afternoon becoming 15-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts and lasting into
the evening hrs before diminishing. There will be a chance of light -
shra along and north of a KGCN-KRQE line aft 00Z. Aviation
discussion not updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Mostly dry and breezy weather will continue
today and Thursday. Lower elevations of eastern Arizona will
approach critical humidity values and wind speeds during the late
afternoon hours but these conditions are not expected to be
widespread or long lived. There is a chance for light showers across
the Utah border and Four Corners region tonight.

Friday through Sunday...A cold front will move through the area
Friday bringing breezy and colder conditions with a chance for
showers to eastern Arizona. Dry and cool weather continues through
the weekend.






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