Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 261654

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
954 AM MST TUE JUL 26 2016

Expect good coverage of showers and thunderstorms today,
especially over the mountains. On Wednesday, dry and more stable
air should move southward leading to an isolated storm threat
from I-40 northward. To the south and southeast, expect scattered
storms to continue.


Another active monsoon day looks in store for northern Arizona
starting in the next few hours. Current grids and forecasts looks
in good shape at this time.


A weak weather disturbance will continue to move east across
northern Arizona today with deep subtropical moisture along and
to the south of this feature. Expecting numerous showers and
thunderstorms to develop across portions of Coconino, Yavapai,
northern Gila counties, eastern Mogollon Rim, and White Mountains
with lesser shower and thunderstorm activity over the Four Corners
region today. Storms are forecast to develop by late morning and
continue into the evening time period.

An upper level high pressure ridge is forecast to develop to the
NW of Arizona later today and into Wednesday. This shifts the
subtropical high pressure ridge into an unfavorable position for
sustaining a northward push of deep subtropical moisture. In
fact, with the subtropical high pressure ridge to our NW, this
flow pattern will bring drier more stable air to portions of
northern Arizona, mainly from the Mogollon Rim northward from
Wednesday through Friday.

Saturday into Tuesday...The subtropical high pressure ridge
returns to a more favorable position, to the east of Arizona,
this will allow for deeper subtropical moisture to move northward
and numerous thunderstorms to return to northern Arizona.


For the 18Z package...Expect another active day of SHRA and TSRA
across northern Arizona. Til 20Z widely scattered precipitation
coverage with cloud bases AOA 15KFT MSL. 20Z-02Z SCT-NMRS storm
coverage with MVFR and IFR possible in the stronger storms. Aft
02Z precipitation coverage decreasing to widely scattered SHRA
with ISOLD TSRA. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF






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