Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 180427
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW
AREAS WILL SEE ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 5500
FEET AND IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF COOL AND MOIST AIR RESIDES OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. THE PROBLEM IS...ASIDE FROM SOME UPSLOPE FORCING
EARLIER TODAY AND SHALLOW CONVECTION...THERE ARE NO DYNAMICS AT ALL.
A VERY WEAK S/WV SEEN ENTERING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING WILL
ADD SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT TO THE AIRMASS FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z THURS.
THIS WILL NOT DO VERY MUCH...EXPECT ENHANCE SOME OF THE TERRAIN
DRIVEN SNOWFALL ALONG THE RIM. THE BEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY FROM
THIS WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH AGAIN...AFFECTING SOUTHERN YAVAPAI AND
POSSIBLE GILA COUNTY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES
BY...WE A LEFT WITH A SHALLOW AND MOIST AIRMASS...WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ALL THIS DOES NOT AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH. THE CURRENT POP/QPF SCHEME
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO THE
SOUTH...BUT ANY RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. A COUPLE OF AREAS
THAT END UP IN A HEAVIER SHOWER MAY SEE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW...BUT
NOTHING WE NEED HEADLINES FOR. IN FACT...WE REALLY CANNOT EVEN
PINPOINT WHERE THOSE SHOWERS MIGHT BE. AN EDUCATED GUESS WOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF...ALONG THE PAYSON RIM. FAIR WEATHER AND A
BIG INCREASE IN HGHTS FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
EXPECT A MODEST WARMING TREND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. NO FURTHER
UPDATES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO
PROVIDE WEAK LIFT AND A CONTINUANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 18 HRS. WIDESPREAD AND MIXED MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH DECREASING SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA
SPREADING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BTWN
00-06Z FRIDAY AS THE FINAL SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. LINGERING SCT
MVFR STRATUS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AZ IS POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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