Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 101712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1012 AM MST Tue Jan 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect fair weather today across northern Arizona
under partly sunny skies. A cooling trend starts Wednesday for all
with a chance of light showers across northwestern parts of the
state. A potentially stronger and colder weather system is
expected from Thursday through Saturday.


.UPDATE...Satellite and observations show that patchy fog which
was present during the early morning hours has mostly cleared out,
though a few small areas of low stratus clouds remain. These
should dissipate within the next hour or two. Minor updates have
been made to winds and cloud cover, otherwise the forecast has
largely remained unchanged.



The satellite loop shows much of the deep cloud cover from
yesterday has moved out of the state. We expect a fair weather day
today with breezy south to southwest winds and near normal max
temps. For tonight and Wednesday, westerly flow aloft across the
western U.S. will push a weak disturbance from the Pacific across
the Great Basin. This feature will bring increasing clouds to
northern AZ, and a chance of light rain or snow showers to the
Kaibab Plateau tonight and the northwest quarter of the state
Wednesday. Light shower chances continue Wednesday night, with
scattered showers along the Utah border and slight chances
elsewhere. Thursday through Saturday - The potential for a winter
weather system impacting the area from Thursday into Saturday
remains. However model run to run consistency is not good,
especially as we go forward in time. On Thursday, the models show
an open trough moving down the Califorina coast, with increasing
moist southwesterly flow aloft over Arizona. This flow will bring
increasing precipitation chances to the upslope areas favored by
SW flow from Heber northwestward Thursday afternoon. The trough is
forecast to become a closed low centered near Yuma by Friday
afternoon. Cross sections from the ECMWF and GFS show good
saturation and also generate precipitation for the northland for
Friday. Precip chances were nudged upward a few points. The
movement of the low on Saturday is where the models diverge
significantly, the latest ECMWF and Canadian model move the low
northeastward from Yuma. The GFS keeps the low center closed and
moving eastward through northern Mexico. So let us call Saturday
unsettled for now, with the best chances for showers east of a
line from Page to Prescott. Stay tuned for updated information on
this system. Showers may linger across eastern Arizona on Sunday,
but Monday is looking dry at this time.

.AVIATION...For the 18Z Forecast...MVFR ceilings may persist just
to the southwest of the Mogollon Rim for another hour or two
during the mid-day hours today. MVFR to low VFR ceilings may
develop near and northwest of a KSEZ-KFLG-KPGA line after 09-12Z
Wednesday. Otherwise, expect breezy SW winds through the afternoon
with locally gusty conditions downwind of high terrain overnight.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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