Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 130352
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STARTING TUESDAY...A
STRONGER MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT
SHOULD BRING BREEZY EAST WINDS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ARIZONA...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SPREADING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA. DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ABOVE 500 MB WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE STABLE AIR MASS STANDING PAT
OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND GRAND CANYON AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. THUS, EXPECT SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS PRIMARILY ABOVE 6500
FEET ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 AND ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY ONWARD...MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES ARE BEING FORECAST BY SOME MODELS FOR THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN WESTERN AZ WITH VALUES DECREASING
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECASTS SHOW A
GRADIENT OF 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LINE FROM
FREDONIA TO ST JOHNS AND 15-30% FOR AREAS NORTH OF THIS LINE. STAY
TUNED ON THIS ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTER 18Z...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. WIND
GUST TO 35 KTS IN THE VICINITY OF STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM/DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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