Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 202125
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
335 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST
AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH INTO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS ABOVE
6500 FEET ELEVATION MAY SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH WITH
THIS NEXT SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH LIMITED CHANCES LINGERING ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO ARIZONA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WIND FOR NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY. ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF A KP23-KFLG-KRQE LINE AFTER 06Z WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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