Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 180311
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
811 PM MST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE LOW WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO CAUSE AREAS OF DENSE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND VIRGA SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT EXITING NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE ONLY
MADE ONE SMALL GRID UPDATE TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME PERIOD. WHILE RAIN
FALLING THROUGH THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GENERALLY
EVAPORATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND...A FEW...SLIGHTLY MORE
INTENSE SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH YAVAPAI COUNTY MAY CAUSE
MEASUREABLE RAINFALL THERE. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /320 PM MST/...
OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ARIZONA REGION BRINGING PERIODS OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
MILD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS AND
CLOUDS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST OF OUR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY
DUE TO HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY.

THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN ERNEST THIS WEEK
WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL DIMINISH
CAUSING SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING
DRAINAGE AREAS.

LONG RANGE WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE ARIZONA REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA
WILL BRING PERIODS OF BKN-OVC CIGS 8-12KFT AGL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO BE
INCLUDED IN TAFS. NUMEROUS PRESCRIBED BURNS IN THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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