Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 171144
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
444 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An approaching cold front will produce strong
southwesterly winds on Friday. Scattered showers are possible
along the Utah border through Friday evening. The cold front to
cross the northland Friday night, with cold temperatures through
Sunday morning. Dry and warmer weather returns for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough will pass across the area this evening, with
widespread windy conditions ahead of the associated cold front. A
wind advisory remains in place for most of Northern Arizona at 11
am through 6 pm tonight. Some shower activity is expected across
the higher terrain, mainly along the Utah - Arizona border.


Dry conditions and decreasing winds are expected behind the cold
front, along with some of the coldest temperatures experienced
this season. The cool down should be relatively short lived with
Saturday and Sunday mornings being the coldest times. Temperatures
will begin to rebound by Sunday afternoon climbing back to near
seasonal normals.

Models are in some disagreement concerning the placement of
another shortwave trough moving across the Four Corners Region.
While timing remains a major discrepancy, neither operational
solution has any precipitation or significant weather associated
with this shortwave impacting Northern Arizona. A slight change in
the solutions could change these solutions.

By Tuesday both models return to agreement that a ridge of high
pressure off the California Coast Builds into the Southwest
through the remainder of the extended forecast bringing warm
temperatures and dry weather to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions are forecast for
the majority of northern Arizona over the next 24 hours. Look for
scattered -SHRA tonight through Friday afternoon with the best
chances over the higher elevations north of a KGCN-KOV7 line. Brief
MVFR conditions are possible, including at KGCN Friday morning.

After 17Z Friday, SW winds will increase to 20-30 kts with gusts 30-
40 kts, at most places along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An approaching cold front will cause strong
southwest winds today, with the highest speeds along and north of
the Mogollon Rim. Light showers are also possible tonight through
Friday evening, mainly along and north of Interstate 40. Saturday,
expect winds to become north to northeast and decrease, ushering in
a very dry air mass behind the front.

Sunday through Tuesday...Light winds and very dry conditions return
as high pressure builds. Temperatures gradually increase each day,
reaching well above average values by Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening
FOR AZZ004>007-009>017-039-040.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...Suk
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff



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