Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 252252

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
350 PM MST Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A trough of low pressure will continue to cross
northern Arizona this evening with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Fair weather is expected Sunday, then another low
pressure system will arrive Monday into Tuesday. A third low should
cross the state late in the week and into next weekend.


.DISCUSSION...A low pressure center over southwestern Utah is
bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to northern Arizona
this afternoon. This low will continue to move eastward overnight
and into southeastern Colorado by Sunday morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will decrease this evening as surface heading decreases
and the area of maximum lift from the low shifts eastward. Some
storms could locally produce hail, graupel, and higher elevation

Weak ridging moves across the state on Sunday with clearing weather
and warmer temperatures.

Active weather pattern continues next week with another system
impacting the area Monday and Tuesday. Models continue to
struggle with the exact strength and timing of this system, but
latest guidance suggest snow levels may fall down to 6000 feet along
the Utah border and around 7000 feet from Bagdad to Alpine on the
backside of this system Tuesday morning. A brief break in the wetter
weather appears likely mid next week, but models indicate another
system could drop south and impact northern Arizona on Friday and


.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...A weak cold front will bring SW
sfc winds 15-25kts to the area through 01z-02z. Expect bkn cigs from
3-6kft agl to decrease from west to east by 02z-04z. Sct -shra/-shsn
and isold -tsra/-tsrasn through 02z, mainly along and north of the I-
40 corridor. Stronger showers may produce brief MVFR conditions. All
areas VFR aft 04z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF







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