Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 192116

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
216 PM MST Fri May 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...For the weekend, expect dry weather, relatively light
winds and a warming trend. On Monday, isolated storms over
higher terrain are possible. Beginning Tuesday, high pressure will
lead to near to above normal temperatures and afternoon breezes.


.DISCUSSION...Current satellite and upper-air analysis reveals
the low that brought winds, rain and snow to the area has moved
into Colorado. This leaves northern Arizona on the backside of a
longwave trough draped across the central United States. As a
result, a light northerly wind has developed across the region,
with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies confined to northeast
portions of the state.

Over the weekend, northern Arizona remains under the influence of
a broad longwave trough. Dry weather, along with warming
temperatures and relatively light winds are forecast. On Monday,
isolated storms are possible over higher terrain as a fast moving
shortwave trough crosses the area.

Beginning Tuesday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to setup over
the state from the west. This will result in near to above normal
temperatures and typical breezy afternoon winds. Dry weather is
forecast across northern Arizona, except perhaps in the White
Mountains where enough instability may exist for some isolated


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions and light
afternoon breezes over the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry conditions and a warming trend for the
weekend. Moderate to High Haines values are forecast by Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Moderate to High Haines values are
forecast each day, with isolated high-based storms possible in
mountainous terrain on Monday. Daytime temperatures will be near
to slightly above normal.






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