Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251128
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
428 AM MST TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS ARIZONA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOOK FOR A DECREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT OVER INTO NEW
MEXICO AND COLORADO TODAY ALLOWING FOR A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL ALSO ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
DURING THE DAY TO NEAR THE UT/AZ BORDER BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
INTENSITY OF TODAY`S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, MAINLY DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WHICH WILL ACT TO LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE WHICH WOULD BE GENERALLY ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER, CAN CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN SOUTH OF THE RIM, ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT CAN MANAGE TO GET A
FEW HOURS OF SUNLIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING, BUT AGAIN THIS WILL
DEPEND ON INSTABILITY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
ELEVATED WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE SHIFT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA WITH A DRIER AIR MASS AFFECTING AREAS NORTHWEST OF
FLAGSTAFF. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS NOW FORECAST TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARIZONA FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. POP VALUES WERE RAISED
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHRA...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSRA...MOSTLY WEST OF A LINE
FROM KPAN-KFLG-KGCN THROUGH 15Z TUE. AFTER 18Z TUE...SHRA AND TSRA
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS. IN
ADDITION...ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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