Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231323
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
420 AM MST THU JUL 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LIMITED TO MAINLY EASTERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
GILA...NAVAJO...AND APACHE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. UPDATED FORECAST TO
INCREASE POPS OVER THESE AREAS TODAY.


THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE MOIST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS BEGIN TO
PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF ARIZONA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON
RIM...PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY...AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. MORE
MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS AS FAR NORTH AS FLAGSTAFF
AND SCATTERED STORMS OVER SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO
THE NORTHWEST OF ARIZONA...STRENGTHENING THE DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW...AND THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH THE MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE MOIST SUBTROPICAL FLOW CONTINUES TO
SPREAD WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. IF A COMPLEX
OF STORMS FORM OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA...THIS WOULD TEND TO HELP
PUSH THE MOISTURE INTO NORTHER ARIZONA SOONER. FOR NOW...MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SLOW BUILD OF MOISTURE MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
19Z TO 01Z EAST OF A KFLG-KPGA LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
FOR AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FRIDAY MAINLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM FLAGSTAFF TO PAGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DECREASING HUMIDITY AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SLOW INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE IS
ANTICIPATED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
WITHIN SEASONABLY NORMAL RANGES FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/TC AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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