Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 020407
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
910 PM MST WED JUL 01 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MONSOON WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN MCS FORMED IN THE EASTERN LCR EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE DRIVING CONVECTION WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF TRAILING STRATIFORM RAINFALL. MULTIPLE OUTFLOWS FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION NEAR TUBA CITY AND THE CURRENT COMPLEX MAY MOVE
INTO GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES TONIGHT. THESE AREAS HAVE NOT BEEN
WORKED OVER YET AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SEEMS MORE
AND MORE LIKELY.

THE LCR IS LIKELY TO BE PRETTY QUIET TOMORROW WITH ALL THE RAINFALL.
CONVECTION MAY BE LIMITED TO THE RIM AND OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF THE RIM. PRODUCTS AND HAZARDS ARE STILL ONGOING...ZONES AND GRIDS
ARE REPRESENTATIVE ENOUGH FOR NOW...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA AND ISOLD
+TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS WILL BE THROUGH
08Z-10Z TONIGHT...THEN AFT 18Z THURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS THIS EVENING MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A TYPICAL MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH DAILY CHANCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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