Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231640
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
UTAH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL
UTAH THIS MORNING WITH SOME MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE
SUSTAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME VERY WEAK DYNAMICS COMBINING WITH MODEST INSTABILITY TO KEEP
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS GOING MAINLY FROM I-40 NORTHWARD
TOWARD UTAH. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL FAVOR FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA.
SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /343 AM MST/... LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
NEAR NEAR FAR NORTHERN AZ AND SOUTHERN UT WILL SHIFT NE TODAY.
CONTINUED COOL TEMPS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN
12 AND 18 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AGAIN
TODAY. ADDITIONAL...BUT GENERALLY WEAKER...DISTURBANCES WILL FILL
IN BEHIND THE MAIN LOW KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THOUGH DAYTIME TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A TRANSITION TO FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...THE AREA NORTH OF A SELIGMAN TO
WINDOW ROCK LINE WILL SEE NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...WITH
LOCAL IFR. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
03Z SUN. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT GUSTS TO 25KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF A SUPAI TO
WINDOW ROCK LINE. WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MID
MORNING. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/KD
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...DL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.