Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 161625

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
925 AM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Drier and warmer conditions are will develop today and
into the weekend. Strong and gusty winds will form Sunday and
Monday, with a chance for rain and snow returning by Monday as


.UPDATE...No major forecast updates needed this morning. Visible
satellite shows plenty of high clouds across the area this
morning. Most areas remain dry today with a chance for a few
showers across the White Mountains through the afternoon. Still on
track for fair and warm weather through Saturday before southwest
winds increase Sunday ahead of the next system Monday.


.PREV DISCUSSION /420 AM MST/... Fair and warming conditions are
likely through the weekend, though a slight chance for showers may
persist in the White Mountains today. Increasing southwest winds
will develop Sunday ahead of the next trough, with even stronger
winds forecast for Monday. Operational GFS and ECMWF remain quite
divergent on how far to bring the trough early next week and with
how much associated moisture it would produce across the
Northland. Will have to evaluate upcoming runs over the coming
days, but for now we are looking at a much cooler weather pattern
and chances for precip returning to northern Arizona.


.AVIATION...For the 18z Package...Primarily VFR for the next 24
hours across northern AZ. The exception is across southern Apache
county where local MVFR/IFR conditions in low clouds, fog and
isolated light showers. Showers will diminish by late this evening.
Surface winds variable to 10 kt. Aviation discussion not updated for


.FIRE WEATHER... For Friday through Saturday, expect fair weather.
Max temperatures to be around normal for the date today, and 5 to 8
degrees warmer Saturday. Poor afternoon ventilation is anticipated
with light mixing layer winds.

Sunday through Tuesday...On Sunday, gusty southwest winds return as
a cold front approaches from the northwest. Breezy to windy
conditions to persist Sunday night. A strong cold frontal passage is
expected Monday, with Mondays wind gusts currently forecast from 40
to 55 mph, fastest speeds along and north of the Mogollon Rim.
Showers should return on Monday as well, with much colder
temperatures Monday and Tuesday.






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