Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171101
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
400 AM MST FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA BEGIN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN BAJA AND UP
ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
THIS AFTERNOON.

A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY...THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY AS A SERIES OF REINFORCING TROUGHS AND POSSIBLY AS A CLOSED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN GOOD...AND LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL NEED
TO BE UPDATED AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS. A STRONGER TROUGH COULD
POSSIBLY AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD A SOUTHWEST HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE
NORTH OF ARIZONA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL BRINGS THE STRONGER TROUGH INTO
THE SOUTHWEST AND LINGERS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

OUR FORECAST GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXITING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WILL BRING BKN-OVC CIGS 8-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLD -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. PRESCRIBED BURNS IN THE AREA
WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED SMOKE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF













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