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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 151029
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
328 AM MST WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER ARIZONA TODAY WILL BRING DRY
AND WINDY WEATHER. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. DRY AND BREEZY
WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. AS THE
TROUGH PASSES OVER ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE UTAH BORDER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TODAY WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION INTO A BREEZIER
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN AZ THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAS VEGAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AZ/UT BORDER TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM
THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. A FEW LOCAL GUSTS MAY APPROACH 40
MPH...ESPECIALLY FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTH AND EAST. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW RH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
NORTHEAST AZ. SEE DETAILS IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK`S END AS THE
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS SECOND TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD AZ
THURSDAY/FRIDAY ENSURING BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER EACH DAY. AS THE TROUGH PASSES OVER NORTHERN
AZ FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHERN AZ NEAR THE UT BORDER.

MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SUBSEQUENT TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE CA COAST. BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS
BCMG SW10-20G30KT THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING AFT 03Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MINOR WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE FIRE
DISTRICT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEAST PLATEAUS...COCONINO
PLATEAU...AND THE MOGOLLON RIM BELOW 6500 FEET. DECREASING WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TO THE EAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FIRE DISTRICT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DECREASING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR AZZ107-109-112>116-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF