Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 202230

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
330 PM MST WED JUL 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
through tomorrow. A drier westerly flow will decrease shower and
thunderstorm coverage across western Arizona Friday into the
weekend. Decent chances for thunderstorms will remain across
southern Navajo and Apache counties.


.DISCUSSION...Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across
northern Arizona this afternoon. Flash flooding was reported in
Oak Creek Canyon and in the Sedona area where flash flood warnings
were issued earlier this afternoon. Thunderstorms are just now
becoming more widespread across northern Navajo and Apache
Counties. While the flash flood threat has ended across much of
the area from central Coconino County to central Yavapai County, a
heavy rain and possible flood threat will continue elsewhere into
the evening hours. Look for storms to diminish after sunset,
though northern Navajo and Apache counties could see scattered
storms continue until around midnight or so.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected across all
of northern Arizona tomorrow, beginning after 10AM MST. Storms
will initially develop in the higher terrain and slowly work their
way to the lower elevations. The main threat with storms tomorrow
will once again be very heavy rain due to the slow storm movement,
which could lead to localized flash flooding. The stronger storms
will also be capable of producing small hail and gusty winds.

Beginning Friday, drier air will start to move in from the west.
This will reduce storm chances across Coconino and Yavapai
Counties. For the weekend, the greatest storm chances will remain
over southern Navajo and Apache Counties where the highest
moisture remains.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will continue before diminishing around 02Z. A
few showers will develop overnight. Expect MVFR/IFR conditions in
heavy showers. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will redevelop
around Thursday 18Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...An active wet Monsoon weather pattern will continue
on Thursday with drier air moving into western Arizona on Friday.
Drier air will reduce chances for showers and thunderstorms starting
on Friday afternoon.

Saturday through Monday...A drier low grade Monsoon pattern will
remain in the forecast. The highest chances for showers and storms
will be across the White Mountains Region.


MST this evening FOR AZZ004>008-015- 037-038.




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