Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 022216

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
316 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...For tonight, scattered rain and snow showers to
continue along the Mogollon Rim east of Happy Jack, and then
linger over White mountains Saturday morning. Elsewhere showers
and cloud cover to decrease with dry weather through the weekend.
Expect gusty northeast winds from tonight through Sunday morning.
A strong cold front may bring much colder temperatures and
showers as early as Tuesday afternoon.


Satellite imagery from this afternoon shows the upper low
centered just south of Yuma. We did see scattered light snow
showers primarily around Flagstaff with only trace amounts at 7000
feet. Also noted on satellite is a cloud and shower plume coming
out of the low desert east of Phoenix. It is aimed at the
Mogollon Rim and should pass between Happy Jack and the White
mtns this evening. This area may see up to an inch of snow
tonight, and lingering light snow showers in the Whites Saturday

 Elsewhere clearing and drying to push in from the northwest
tonight with dry weather through Monday night. Still expecting
gusty northeast winds to develop tonight along the Mogollon Rim
and continue through Sunday morning, with the fastest speeds
(sustained 20-30 mph with higher gusts) Saturday night. Temps to
start a warming trend for the weekend, though wind chills may have
one thinking differently.

Regarding the cold front next week. The latest indications are
for a slower arrival time and the bulk of the coldest air to slide
through the 4 corners. This afternoons forecast changes for next
Tuesday were to lower Tuesdays high temps a few degrees over
Monday and confine the shower chances to areas along the Utah
border. Also bumped up Weds/Thurs temps a few degrees but not a
lot of confidence in how cold it could be next given todays model
output. Stay tuned.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z forecast...Expect primarily VFR
conditions for the next 24 hours. Til 12z Sat areas east of a
K0V7-KPAN line to see scattered rain and snow showers with MVFR
conditions. Sfc winds NE 10-20kt with higher gusts along and south
of the Mogollon Rim tonight, expanding in coverage aft 15z Sat.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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