Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241721
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1021 AM MST SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL BRING CONTINUED WINDY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST REGION TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE
PRODUCING A STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT BREEZY
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN ON MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHES ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE WIND ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
IN COCONINO, GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /354 AM MST/...

A BIG CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS UTAH. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHWEST ARIZONA MONDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY, ENTERING NEW MEXICO BY MONDAY EVENING.

VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A
HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA
WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA, WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED, AND A
WIND ADVISORY WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-40, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE KAIBAB PLATEAU. SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE KAIBAB PLATEAU MONDAY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, WITH COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. A BRIEF
WARM-UP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
REGION.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE COMING WEEK LOOK TO BE
FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. A RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE TROUGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTD FOR THE NEXT
18 HOURS...CIGS BECMG SCT MVFR OVER HIGHER TRRN IN NW AZ. BREEZY SW
WINDS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTNG OVERNIGHT...SW WINDS INCRS
BTWN 16-18Z MONDAY 15-30KT G35-50KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY. INCREASING BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A TROUGH APPROACHES. VERY WINDY
FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WIND.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
AZZ011-013-014-017-040.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/CLM
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.