Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231149

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
347 AM MST MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Look for breezy late mornings and afternoons with
below normal temperatures through the coming week as a series of
weather disturbances brush northern Arizona.


Cool and breezy conditions are expected through the bulk of the
work week as southwest flow aloft streams over the area due to a
large scale low pressure system off the California Coast
dominates the weather pattern in the near term. Temperatures will
remain 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal values, with limited
potential for moisture through the first half of the work week.

By Wednesday the low pressure trough should eject some energy
over the area and could produce some showers and thunderstorms
starting wednesday afternoon and continuing through Thursday.
While the current model consensus agrees on this solution in
general terms, the lack of previous model runs supporting this
conclusion is limiting confidence that this will continue to be
the forecasted track the shortwave across the area. Should subsequent
model runs show this solution, confidence will increase and drive
probability of precipitation upwards.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
northern Arizona during the next 24 hours. South to southwest winds
of 10-20 knots gusting to 30 knots are expected from around 17z to
around 02z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy and dry conditions will continue on Monday
and Tuesday as pressure gradients favoring southwesterly surface
winds remain in place. Near critical fire weather conditions at
lower elevations each afternoon.

Wednesday through Friday...Locally breezy and mainly dry. Winds
trending lighter for Thursday and Friday. The passage of a weak
weather disturbance will bring with it a slight chance of






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