Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 172212

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
312 PM MST Fri Mar 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions to
continue through Monday. Expect breezy afternoon winds over the
weekend and into early next week. A chance of rain and snow
showers returns Tuesday night and Wednesday as a cold front will
move across the area.


.DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure situated over the
southwestern portion of the country will result in continued warm
temperatures and dry conditions into early next week. Winds will
become breezy Saturday afternoon and continue into early next week
as a trough begins to push eastward resulting in a tightened
pressure gradient over northern Arizona.

This trough will be slow to progress eastward with clouds and
precipitation not entering the forecast until early Wednesday. The
cold front associated with the trough will cross the region
Wednesday night and early Thursday with precipitation tapering off
during the day on Thursday. Snow levels are expected to fall below
7000 feet during the event. There is still differences within the
model guidance on the thermal profile as well as the timing of
the system so the forecast will be fine-tuned as we get closer to
the event.

There remains indications of another storm system impacting the
area later next weekend, but as usual confidence is low that far
out in the forecast.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Expect VFR conditions through
the next 24 hours. S-SW wind increasing to 10-20 kt Saturday 18z-
00z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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