Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 162229

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
329 PM MST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An approaching cold front will produce strong
southwesterly winds on Friday. Scattered showers are possible
along the Utah border through Friday evening. The cold front
to cross the northland Friday night, with cold temperatures
through Sunday morning. Dry and warmer weather returns for
next week.


The large scale pattern this afternoon has an upper level trough
moving onshore in the Pacific northwest and a surface cold front
stretching from San Francisco to Boise. Models are in good
agreement through Sunday, and show the cold front crossing the
AZ/UT border early Friday evening.

Forecast focus was on the Wind Advisory for Friday, which
remains unchanged. Areas along and north of the Mogollon Rim
should see SW winds sustained in the 25 to 35 mph range with
gusts 40-55 mph.

For tonight, moist onshore flow to increase across the desert
Southwest as the cold front approaches. Low level moisture and
some lift to increase overnight through Friday afternoon across
the Kaibab Plateau and pops were increased in this area, with
accumulations in the .10 -.30" range possible across SW facing
slopes. Shower chances do expand southward on Friday to areas
north of a line from Ash Fork-Winslow-Window Rock, but only
expecting trace amounts for areas away from Utah.

Following the cold frontal passage Friday night, dry weather
returns, bu high and low temps through Sunday morning could be
the coldest of the season across northeast AZ. Breezy northeast
sfc winds should keep things mixed along and south of the Mogollon

Monday through Thursday, progs suggest another ridge of high
pressure to build over the desert southwest. The strength of the
ridge is in question, with the GFS sharper and warmer the ECMWF by
Tuesday. Bottom line is dry weather with warming temperatures and
light winds through the period.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions are forecast for
the majority of northern Arizona over the next 24 hours under
increasing cloud cover. A chance of light rain will develop this
evening through Friday afternoon, with the highest chances over the
higher elevations north of a KGCN-KOV7 line. MVFR conditions are
possible in these areas at times, including briefly at KGCN Friday
morning. Winds may remain breezy tonight at locations northeast of
higher terrain. After 17Z Friday, southwest winds will increase to
20-25 kts with gusts 30-45 kts, strongest along/north of the
Mogollon Rim. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...An approaching cold front will cause increasing
southwest winds through Friday, with the highest speeds expected
Friday afternoon along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Light showers
are also possible tonight through Friday evening, mainly along and
north of Interstate 40. Saturday, expect winds to become north to
northeast and decrease, ushering in a very dry air mass behind the

Sunday through Tuesday...Light winds and very dry conditions will
return as high pressure builds. Temperatures will gradually increase
each day, reaching well above average values by Tuesday.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Friday FOR AZZ004>007-




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