Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 232203
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
303 PM MST SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER.
THEN...BEGINNING MONDAY...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS MOISTURE SURGING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTERACTS WITH A WEATHER
SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FROM
THURSDAY ONWARD...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND INCREASE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ON SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM MID LEVEL
AIR WILL LARGELY INHIBIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HURRICANE MARIE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO INSTIGATE A SURGE OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE. THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT
WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA
LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS GOOD MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. IN
ADDITION...GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS INDICATE THAT TIGHTENING
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO 25
TO 35 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. SO...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR TO PRODUCE ROTATING SUPERCELLS.

THURSDAY ONWARD...LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE LEADING TO DRYING
CONDITIONS...WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...AND DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT-BKN CUMULUS 4-6KFT AGL WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING AND MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
SITES. EXPECT MORE SCT COVERAGE AFT 06Z. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR PERIOD WITH AN ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN AZ. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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