Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 262153
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
253 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK...A STORM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION DECREASING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...A LONGWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER...LIGHT WINDS...AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY DATA
INDICATES THE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME A YEAR. AS A
RESULT...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL DECREASE A BIT...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...700 MB GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN LEADING TO INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH MODEL SPREAD REMAINS CONCERNING THE
PASSAGE OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL...MODELS HAVE TENDED TO DELAY THIS SYSTEMS
ARRIVAL. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS PREDICT A SOONER ARRIVAL THAN THE ECMWF. I HAVE REDUCED
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...BUT HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
TUESDAYS AND WEDNESDAYS POP FORECAST LARGELY UNCHANGED. AT THIS
POINT...GIVEN THE PRESENT UNCERTAINTY...CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SEEM WARRANTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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