Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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186
FXUS65 KFGZ 161057
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
357 AM MST SAT MAY 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6500 TO
7000 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE ALL RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME IMPROVEMENT
SUNDAY...A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SIGNIFICANT S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
BETWEEN PAYSON AND SHOW LOW. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN BRINGING MODERATE
RAIN AND SNOW TO ZONES SE OF FLAGSTAFF FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
WAVE MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. WE HAVE CANCELED THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR
THE WESTERN RIM AND SHORTENED THE VALID TIMES OF THE REMAINING
ADVISORIES.

A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL STAY ACTIVE TO THE EAST AND WILL REDEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA...AS ONE MORE WEAK S/WV MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS LAST WAVE IS NEAR LAS VEGAS AND SHOULD AFFECT THE
CENTRAL ZONES WITH SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

WARMER AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ARRIVES SUNDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER
LOW DUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THE
CURRENT SYSTEM...BUT WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
GENERATE MORE SHOWERS. SOME DRYING MID-WEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY
YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DUE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD SHRA/SHSN WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS EAST OF A KPRC-KFLG-KPGA THROUGH AROUND
18Z AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
OVER MOUNTAIN REGIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF LOW
VISIBILITY IN SHSN. SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM 6500-7000 FT MSL.
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED IFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY WITH CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
MAINLY EAST OF I-17 TO PAGE WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. SHOWERS LOOK TO
FAVOR FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA. BREEZY WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
AZ PUBLIC ZONES 016-017.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS



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