Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 220424

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
924 PM MST Fri Jul 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect very active monsoon conditions for the next
several days. Local heavy rainfall capable of producing flash
flooding remains possible from stronger storms.


.DISCUSSION...Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished
rapidly this evening across most of northern Arizona with the
loss of daytime heating. Isolated to scattered shower activity is
still ongoing across portions of Navajo and Apache counties. This
is expected to linger into the overnight hours. Latest hi-res
guidance indicates little in the way of convective development
overnight. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is on tap
for Saturday as ample moisture remains in place. Thunderstorms
will be most favored over the Mogollon Rim and southward with
heavy rain and gusty winds as the main threats.


.PREV DISCUSSION /310 PM MST/...Another active day across
northern Arizona today. Storms are generally moving from northwest
to southeast and producing locally heavy rain and flooding
issue--especially over recent fire scars. A few storms also show
(on radar) indications of one inch or larger hail.

Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage after dark
tonight. However, other storms/storm clusters could develop
overnight. HRRR is showing the Northeast and White Mountains as
the favored areas for development overnight.

For Saturday and Sunday...The forecast models are still insisting
that a northeast to southwest flow sets up across Arizona in
response to high pressure becoming centered over
Nevada/Utah/Arizona. The described flow pattern will deliver a
drier air mass to the northeast corner of Arizona with a decrease
in shower and storm activity. From the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains southward and across central Arizona monsoon moisture
will remain entrenched with a good chance of showers and storms
each day.

From Monday onward...Moisture will remain in place with the
threat for daily showers and thunderstorms continuing.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity will continue to diminish over the area. Isolated showers
will remain a possibility into the overnight hours. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop again on Saturday
after 18z. MVFR/IFR conditions in the stronger storms. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Active monsoon conditions will continue through
the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
The best thunderstorm chances will be from the Mogollon Rim
southward. Heavy rain and gusty winds will remain the primary
threats. Expect near average temperatures across the area.

Monday through Wednesday...Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue as moisture remains in place over the area
through mid week.






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