Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021703
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1003 AM MST THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MONSOON WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER STRETCHES FROM THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING
WITH AMPLE MONSOON MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. WE
EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THE MEAN FLOW TODAY IS PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHWESTERN AZ WHERE STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA (NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM/NAVAJO NATION/HOPI).
DEEP LAYER WINDS ARE WEAKER TODAY AND LESS WIND SHEAR WILL
DECREASE THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE GREATEST STORM
THREATS TODAY ARE HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND HAIL
FROM LOCALLY STRONG STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /455 AM MST/...A FAIRLY INTENSE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX DEVELOPED EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND MARCHED WESTWARD OVERNIGHT, REACHING SEDONA, ASH FORK
AND WILLIAMS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS COMPLEX HAS NOW WEAKENED AND
MOVED INTO FAR WESTERN ARIZONA. CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING ROUGHLY NORTH OF
I-40 WITH GRADUAL CLEARING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS, BUT WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AS MID-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLIES DIMINISH IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVING CLOSER TO THE STATE. THIS SHOULD LOWER THE THREAT OF LONG-
LIVED STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND LIKE WE HAVE SEEN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. COULD STILL BE A FEW PULSE TYPE STRONG
STORMS AROUND, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM/WHITE MTNS AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST AZ LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STEERING FLOW TODAY SHOULD BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN AZ WITH LIGHT FLOW OVER EASTERN AZ.
THIS CONTINUES TO BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS MOVING INTO
GILA/YAVAPAI COUNTIES SO POPS ARE LOWER THERE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH DAILY
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
TOWARD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS WILL PUT NORTHERN ARIZONA IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD INITIALLY BRING
A MOISTURE INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF
STORMS CONTINUING. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES BY TUESDAY INTO MID
WEEK, THE BEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN AZ WITH
A DRYING TREND FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA AND ISOLD
+TSRAGS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST THROUGH
AROUND 02Z. STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KPRC-KPAN-KCFT. ONLY ISOLD -TSRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A TYPICAL MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH DAILY CHANCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/JJ
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...BAK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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