Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 152243

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
343 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Lingering moisture will bring a chance of rain and
high elevation snow showers to northern Arizona through tonight,
with decreasing chances for showers on Monday. Fair weather and
warming daytime temperatures are forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Then, an active weather pattern will likely set up
across northern Arizona leading to increasing chances for snow and
rain late next work week and into next weekend.


.DISCUSSION...The main low pressure system has moved well east of
Arizona this afternoon, currently over SE New Mexico. Weak troughing
and plenty of moisture will linger over northern Arizona through
Monday. Showers have finally redeveloped as enough breaks in the
clouds have allowed for weak sfc heating, mainly along/southeast
of a Prescott-Flagstaff-Kayenta line. Snow levels will be in the
6500-7500 ft range into tonight, with some spotty light
accumulation above 7000 feet or so. A more persistent area of
showers is likely over the west-facing slopes in the White Mtns,
and a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 11 PM. Also
with all the low level moisture around, patchy fog will remain a
possibility through Monday morning.

A warming trend with dry weather is forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday as weak ridging develops over the region. Daytime
temperatures should warm close to normal with mainly clear skies.

From Thursday through Saturday, model forecasts have been
consistent in developing a longwave trough across the western
United States. Although there are some differences in timing,
confidence continues to grow that northern Arizona will
experience the passage of a shortwave trough/surface cold front
late next work week (late Thursday or Friday), with a second
even colder/wetter front possible over the weekend. At any rate,
while many of the details have yet to be worked out, a period of
wet and cold weather is probable. Significant and possibly high-
impact winter weather could develop, please keep up to date with
the latest forecasts at


.AVIATION...For the 00Z decks will continue BKN070-
080 MSL resulting in LIFR/IFR CIGS in the higher elevations with
terrain obscured through 14-16Z. Scattered -shra/-shsn will decrease
this evening from west to east. Isolated showers will continue east
of a KPAN-KRQE line 17Z-00Z.  Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.


until 11 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ017.




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