Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 181630

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
930 AM MST Tue Apr 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and seasonably warm conditions to continue
through the week. Breezy conditions will develop each afternoon
through Thursday. A weak front will bring a slight chance of
showers to the Kaibab Plateau today and and tonight.


.UPDATE...Ongoing forecast remains on track. A weak disturbance
will skirt north of the area with a slight chance of showers this
afternoon and evening along the Utah border. This system will also
bring breezy afternoon winds with gusts up to 35 mph to a large
portion of the region. Otherwise, another warm and dry day on tap.


.PREV DISCUSSION /409 AM MST/... Dry and breezy conditions will
dominate the forecast for the next week as quasi-zonal flow from
the southwest continues to stream across the area as a broad ridge
remains over the New Mexico Texas region. Temperatures will
remain about 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal values throughout
this week. Some breezy conditions will develop through the late
morning hours across Northern Arizona and will continue into early
evening. Warm and quiet conditions are expected to dominate on

By Thursday a large scale ridge off the Pacific Coast will move
inland. A strong pressure gradient will develop across Northern
Arizona as the associated cold front moves across the region.
Precipitation should be limited with this system and the
temperature drop behind the cold front will be minimal with most
locations remaining well above seasonal average throughout the
time frame. Wind highlights may become necessary as the system
progresses, but will hold off from issuing any advisory or warning
products at this time.

By Friday northerly winds will develop behind the frontal passage
and are expected to remain over the area through the weekend. With
light winds across the region on Sunday.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...Expect VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours. Through 03Z Wednesday, expect southwest winds from 15-
25 kts with gusts from 25-35 kts at most places. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Southwest flow aloft will produce warm and dry
conditions with breezy southwest winds.

Thursday through Saturday...Winds and relative humidities may
combine to approach critical fire weather thresholds north of the
Mogollon Rim Thursday afternoon. High pressure will lead to dry
conditions and lighter winds Friday and Saturday.






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