Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252149
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
249 PM MST SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
RETURN TO MORE OF A TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN WITH DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...NORTHERN ARIZONA REMAINS DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM. STORM ACTIVITY FROM THE WHITE MTNS NORTH TOWARD
WINDOW ROCK WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY
WINDS AND MODERATE RAIN WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY STORM THREATS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY PUSHING THE EASTERN ARIZONA
MOISTURE PLUME EVEN FURTHER EAST. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
LIMITED TO THE WHITE AND CHUSKA MTNS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

WE STILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING THE RETURN
TO MORE TYPICAL MONSOON WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE....LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 03Z
TONIGHT EAST OF A LINE FROM KPAN-KINW-KCEZ. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS IN
THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM PAYSON TO
WINDOW ROCK. ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.
EXPECT LOCALLY BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AT TIMES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLOW INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED WITH AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WITHIN
SEASONABLY NORMAL RANGES.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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