Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250354
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
854 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS WEEKEND. STARTING MONDAY...A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS EVENING. SHORT-TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE PRODUCED BY THE RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR
NORTHWEST. AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIM WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SUB-TROPICAL RAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A HIGH PROBABILITY EVENT...WITH
LOW TO LOCALLY MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS. MODELS ARE REMAINING
CONSISTENT WITH THIS IN THE AFTERNOON RUNS...WE RAISED POPS A BIT
MORE...BUT THE OVERALL LOOK WILL REMAIN THE SAME.

LATER IN THE WEEK...A WEAK MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...ROUGHLY ANCHORED SOUTH OF THE MEAN
WEST COAST RIDGE. AS LONG AS THIS LOW REMAINS IN PLACE...IT WILL
HAVE THE ABILITY TO SEND OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE OUR WAY. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS HAPPENING AGAIN NEXT
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES.

THE 12Z GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CANADIAN...DEVELOPED A DRAMATIC
CHANGE FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM. THESE RUNS NOW INJECT A COLD
CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM...CREATING
A LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF OVER ARIZONA. THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION...BUT THE 18Z GFS STILL HAS SOME...ALBEIT
WEAKER...SUPPORT FOR THIS. WE HAVE RAISED POPS AGAIN LATE IN THE
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT THE
OUTLIER SOLUTIONS SUGGEST. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...AS THINGS
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS N-NE 10G20KT ALONG AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/PETERSON
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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