Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 061705

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1005 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect breezy northeast winds and near normal
temperatures today. From tonight through Thursday, a dry cold
front will bring a round of below normal temperatures and strong
northeast winds to locations along and southwest of the Mogollon
Rim. High pressure will lead to warming temperatures and lighter
winds from Friday through the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...The main story over the next 24 hours will be a cold
front dropping south across the area with strengthening
northeasterly winds and below normal temperatures. Latest guidance
indicates 700 mb winds increasing to 50-55 kt along and south of
the Mogollon Rim by early Thursday. Therefore, localized gusts of
40-50 mph still appear likely in these areas Thursday. Along with
the gusty winds, colder air will filter in behind this front with
below normal temperatures expected Thursday. Decreasing winds and
warming temperatures will begin Friday and continue into the

Previous forecast covers these trends well so no updates are
needed this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /244 AM MST/...For today, expect a round of dry
weather, breezy northeast winds and near normal temperatures.
From tonight through Thursday morning, an upper level shortwave
trough and a dry surface cold front will sweep across the area
from north to south bringing very strong northeast winds to
locations along and immediately southwest of the Mogollon Rim and
higher terrain in Yavapai County. Localized gusts in the 40 to 50
mph range will be possible in these areas Thursday morning.

The coldest day of the forecast period will be on Thursday as
cold air streams into the area behind the cold front. Daytime
temperatures will be between 5 to 10 degrees below normal at most
places, with high temperatures ranging from the mid-30`s to
mid-40`s along and north of the Mogollon Rim. In addition, breezy
northeast winds will persist, with the strongest winds continuing
along and southwest of the Mogollon Rim.

Beginning Friday, high pressure will build across the western
United States bringing a prolonged period of dry weather and
warming temperatures. Above normal daytime temperatures are
forecast by the weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions across
northern Arizona over the next 24 hours. Surface winds east-
northeast from 10-20 kt through 00z Thu. Wind increases through the
night and into Thu morning with localized gusts to 35-40 kt along
and southwest of the Mogollon Rim. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Mainly dry, northerly flow aloft will continue
today and Thursday. Yet another disturbance will dive across New
Mexico tonight and Thursday, bringing increased east through
northeast winds and pronounced cooling/drying to portions of
northern Arizona on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Dry weather will continue with high pressure
building over the west coast. Daytime temperatures will slowly
return to average or above average, with easterly winds gradually






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