Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 121712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1012 AM MST Thu Oct 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry southwesterly flow will persist through the week
with temperatures near to slightly above normal. Expect breezy
afternoon winds to continue through Saturday with weakening winds
late in the weekend and into early next week.


Short-term forecast looks in good shape with no major updates
anticipated this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /336 AM MST/... Models continue to remain in good
agreement concerning the passage of a trough of low pressure
across the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Plains through the
rest of the week. While this system won`t directly impact Northern
Arizona, the tightening pressure gradient aloft will create strong
southwesterly winds that will be able to mix down to the surface
during peak convective mixing each day from late afternoon through
early evening through the rest of the week. Dry conditions are
expected across the area due the dry southwesterly flow aloft
throughout this time frame.

Some cooler temperatures will be noticed across the area this
weekend as a dry back door cold front is expected to move in from
the Four Corners region Saturday evening and Sunday. No
precipitation is expected with this, however northerly winds and
a cooler air mass across the high country will create a brisk
start to Sunday, with temperatures dropping about 5 degrees below
forecasted values on Saturday. The cool temperatures should be
relatively short lived with a warming trend returning over the
next few days as a ridge of high pressure moves into the Western
United States behind the trough passage.

The ridge will move off by the middle of next week, as the next
wave of energy moves inland from the Pacific. Models continue to
have trouble coming to a consensus of how this next disturbance
develops and moves inland. Have gone with a more middle of the
road compromise at this point, and will move the forecast towards
the eventual consensus as it develops in subsequent model runs.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the 24
hour forecast period. Sfc winds Sw12-22g22-32kts from 18Z-01Z
today. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect above normal daytime temperatures today and
Friday, along with gusty southwest winds and dry conditions. The
strongest winds are anticipated today, with a few areas
approaching critical fire weather thresholds this afternoon. Wind
speeds will decrease slightly on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Temperatures will remain above normal for
this time of year. Expect much lighter winds over the weekend, with
a directional switch to northerly or northeasterly.






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