Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241001
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE FROM
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. MAX
TEMPERATURES COOL TO SEASONAL NORMALS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TODAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS
UNSEASONABLY WARM.  H5 ( AT 18KFT MSL)  WIND STREAMLINES SHOW THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER AZ THIS MORNING AND MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS (BELOW 10KFT MSL) BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES.

THIS WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHERN ARIZONA CAN EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH. THE FASTEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AZ UT BORDER. PROGS ARE SHOWING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND THUS EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE STRATUS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM
WILLIAMS TO THE WHITE MTNS. THE SREF MODEL HINTS AT SOME LIGHT
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MTNS AREAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE NO MOISTURE SEEN BELOW H5 AND NO MODEL QPF SO
PRECIP CHANCES WERE REMOVED. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS INTO FAR
NRN AZ EARLY MONDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE MAX
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO SEASONAL NORMALS LEVELS MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PROGS SHOW A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH
NORTHWESTERLY THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MAX AND MIN
TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT IFR/MVFR VIS IN SMOKE FROM
PRESCRIBED BURNS AT KGCN AND KFLG. VIS IMPROVING SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF DAY AT AREA TERMINALS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










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