Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 152212
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 PM MST FRI MAY 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE RIM
COUNTRY INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. AFTER SOME IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY...A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
NEVADA/UTAH BORDER CONTINUED TO SPIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES. YET
ANOTHER MOIST DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THIS CIRCULATION AND ACROSS ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOOK
FOR NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALOFT SUPPORTS A SNOW LEVEL AS
LOW THE 6000-6500 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MAIN ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE FROM THE EASTERN RIM INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7000 FEET WHERE THE BEST LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION, OROGRAPHIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL EXIST. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR DETAILS.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE
AFFECTING THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK. TWO MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY OR TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN LATER IN
THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE NOT AS
STRONG. AS A RESULT, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE AND ALL RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD SHRA/SHSN WILL AFFECT
NORTHERN AZ THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OVER MOUNTAIN
REGIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY IN SHSN.
SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM 6000-7000 FT MSL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AZ
AND ABOVE 7000 FT MSL TO THE EAST...ALL AREAS FALLING TO 6000-7000
AFT 06Z SATURDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 6000-7000 FEET WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE THIS LEVEL. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST ON SATURDAY WITH COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER TAKING HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY. SHOWERS LOOK TO
FAVOR FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA. BREEZY WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

1) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MST TONIGHT ZONE 15.
2) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN EFFECT FROM 800 PM TONIGHT UNTIL
   NOON MST SATURDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET ZONES 16 AND 17.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS



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