Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 191702

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1002 AM MST Sun Mar 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A dry southwest flow aloft will deliver warm daytime
temperatures and breezy afternoon winds through Monday. On
Tuesday...a cooling trend will begin as a storm system approaches
Arizona leading to even cooler temperatures on Wednesday and
Thursday along with good chance of showers.


.UPDATE...No major updates were required to the ongoing forecast.
Some record highs may be tied or broken later today. However,
impacts should be minimal. The updated products have been sent.


.PREV DISCUSSION /333 AM MST/...For today and Monday northern
Arizona will be positioned between a high pressure system over
Texas and building low pressure off the west coast of the United
States. The main impact of this setting will be a continuation of
above normal temperatures and dry conditions. Pressure gradients
are those familiar to late winter and early spring, so look for
breezy conditions each afternoon. The only exception will be
along the Arizona/Utah border where just enough moisture will
interact with a weak passing disturbance/daytime heating for a
slight chance of high based thunderstorms.

From Tuesday through Thursday...The low pressure system off the
west coast will head across the western United States. On Tuesday
the approach of this low will mean daytime temperatures about 5
degrees cooler along with a continuation of breezy conditions.
From Wednesday through Thursday the low pressure system and
associated cold front will move across Arizona. Pacific moisture
sweeping in ahead of the front will interact with a decent upward
motion field and terrain to produce a good chance of showers. The
combination of cooler temperatures aloft, daytime heating and
moisture could even trigger an isolated thunderstorm or two. The
snow level could dip as low a 6500 feet Wednesday night into
Thursday as the axis of coldest air moves overhead but snow
accumulations are expected to be generally an inch or less. The
exception, higher elevation locations such a the San Francisco
Peaks, Kaibab plateau and White Mountains where decent
accumulations are possible. Otherwise, even cooler, dipping to
below normal on Thursday with breezy winds continuing day and

For Friday and beyond...Breezy and unsettled conditions will
continue. Another chance for showers with a passing disturbance
next weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...VFR conditions will persist
throughout the next twenty-four hours. Variable thin high clouds
through the period. SW winds gusting 15-25 KT through 01Z Mon.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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