Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291021
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA MONDAY AND
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... SKIES ARE NEARLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER APACHE COUNTY ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE FROM SE TO NW...AN INDICATION THE MID LEVEL HIGH
CENTER IS NOW EAST OF ARIZONA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE SEEN IN
MODELS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THUS THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH CENTER WILL BRING ABOUT 24 HOURS WORTH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
NORTHERN AZ FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN WHAT
WE SAW FRIDAY...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT STORMS TO
NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PUSH INTO
NORTHWESTERN AZ. THE BEST TIME FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH OF A SELIGMAN TO WINDOW
ROCK LINE OWING TO MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAYING THE
MONSOON PLUME.

FOR NEXT WEEK...PROGS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG
DRYING TREND STARTING MONDAY IN WESTERN AZ AND MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT FOR STORMS FROM 10 PM TO 10 AM IS NIL
FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT APACHE COUNTY. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS APACHE COUNTY WITH ISOLATED DAYTIME COVERAGE
ELSEWHERE. ON TUESDAY PRETTY MUCH ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE EAST OF A
KAYENTA TO PAYSON LINE AND BY WEDNESDAY ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS ALONG THE AZ NM BORDER. MAX TEMPS TO HOVER NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST AREAS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA WHERE ISOLATED COVERAGE IS FORECAST. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ERRATIC GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
AND HAIL. STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AFTER 03Z
SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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