Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 091629

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
929 AM MST Wed Aug 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A break in monsoon thunderstorm activity will continue
across much of northern Arizona today, though the White mountains
area has a slight chance of afternoon storms. Moisture should
return to the northland Thursday, leading to increasing storm
coverage and intensity from Thursday through Monday.


.DISCUSSION...Clear skies and light winds across northern Arizona
this morning. The 12z upper air sounding from Bellemont this
morning was slightly drier than yesterday, most notably in the
lower levels. Therefore, continue to expect another generally
quiet day with minimal shower and thunderstorm activity. The area
most favored to see a few storms is over the White Mountains.
An increase in moisture resulting in more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity still appears on track beginning Thursday
and into the weekend.


.PREV DISCUSSION /345 AM MST/...Satellite imagery showing clear
skies across most of northern AZ early this morning. High
pressure aloft was centered over far SE Arizona and will slowly
move to Texas through Thursday.

For today, Dry and stable conditions will continue today for most
of the northland due to W SW flow around around the high center.
We kept the slight chance of afternoon storms in the White mtns
as a bit of moisture and instability may return there.

From Thursday onward, light southerly flow to return to our area.
This flow to bring increasing moisture, instability and increasing
storms chances. Still seeing the possibility of an upper level
disturbance moving across the area Friday and Saturday, and this
could increase overnight convection during this timeframe.
Monsoon moisture looks to remain over the northland through at
least Monday.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Look for VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible over the White Mountains this afternoon. Storms will
diminish after sunset. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and warm conditions will continue across most of
the area today, with only isolated showers and thunderstorms in the
White Mountains. Monsoon moisture will begin to spread back across
Arizona Thursday as the flow turns southerly, bringing an increasing
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday through Sunday...Monsoon moisture will remain over the region
with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below normal.






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