Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 192240
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DELIVER FAIR
WEATHER...A FEW CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THE LARGE AREAS OF LOW CLOUD
AND FOG THAT EXISTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING HAVE LARGELY BURNED OFF WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD REMAIN WITHIN THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EAST OF WINSLOW. WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING...THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER AND CHINLE
VALLEYS. I HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW
MORNINGS LOWS IN PLACES WHERE LOW CLOUD AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM.

TOMORROW THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND PLACING ARIZONA
UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRUSH ARIZONA RESULTING IN
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS
LIKE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY
COOL.

FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND BEYOND...SOME LONG RANGE MODELS STILL
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF COLD...WINDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE PASSAGE OF
A DEEPER...SLIGHTLY WETTER SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING WORTH CHECKING BACK ON.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...STRATUS AND FOG FCST TO EXPAND AGAIN BY EARLY
EVENING WITH INCREASING IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS. AREAS IMPACTED
OVERNIGHT MAY INCLUDE BUT NOT LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE CHINLE
VALLEY...LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...PORTION OF THE COCONINO
PLATEAU...AND MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS INCLUDING THE PAGE AREA.
OUTSIDE OF THE LOW STRATUS AREAS...VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS THRU THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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