Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201623
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
923 AM MST WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...MOST NOTABLY DECREASING THEM OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY LATE
TONIGHT. PER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...EXPECT LESS
RAIN ACTIVITY TODAY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. ANOTHER INCREASE IN
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TOMORROW AS THE SOUTHWEST US
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO AZ.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /348 AM MST/...
IT HAS BEEN A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS
THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN YESTERDAY HAS MOVED
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. GPSMET AND GOES SOUNDER BASED PRECIPITABLE
WATER MEASUREMENTS SHOW THAT MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH MUCH OF THIS DECREASE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. THE VALUE AT FLAGSTAFF PEAKED AT JUST OVER AN INCH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAS FALLEN TO NEAR 0.6 INCHES THIS MORNING...WITH
SIMILAR DROPS AT THE KINGMAN AND SHOW LOW GPSMET SITES. AN UPPER
LOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE IT SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. IT IS NOT YET CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA
TODAY TO PROVIDE ANY LIFT...SO EXPECT A LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS
TODAY...MOSTLY FOCUSED ON AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW AFTER TODAY...WITH THE CONSENSUS NOW BRINGING
THE LOW INTO WESTERN AZ THURSDAY AFTN...THEN INTO EASTERN AZ OR
NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY. STORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED FOR THURSDAY AS
UPWARD MOTION COMBINES WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH. BY FRIDAY...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD TROUGHING IN THE NORTHWEST
U.S. WILL BRING A WESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO NORTHERN AZ.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. WE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW UNTIL WE GET A BETTER IDEA OF HOW MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WHITE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT REDUCED VSBY IN TSRA AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30
KTS AS THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER
03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........AT/JJ
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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