Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 220430

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
930 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to strengthen over Arizona
through this Holiday weekend. Daytime temperatures will warm
enough by Wednesday, Thanksgiving, and Friday to challenge long
standing high temperature records. Cooler and breezy conditions
are expected early next week.


.UPDATE...Considerable high cloudiness is moving over northern
Arizona this evening has high pressure off the southern California
Coast strengthens are moves northeastward. The 900 PM MST
temperatures are up as much as 7 degrees from 24 hours ago.
Updated sky grids earlier for partly cloudy conditions.


.PREV DISCUSSION /350 PM MST/...A ridge of high pressure will
continue to build in from the west bringing well above normal
temperatures and dry conditions for Wednesday through the weekend.
Temperatures will range 15-20 degrees above normal with some
record high temperatures possible for Wednesday, Thanksgiving
Day, and Friday. Winds remain light with intermittent periods of
high clouds possible through the weekend.

By early next week, an approaching trough from the Pacific
Northwest will move across the Great Basin and into the Four
Corners region. This will causing breezy conditions to develop
ahead of the trough.

Models have these winds developing over Northern Arizona on
Monday and strengthening ahead of the associated cold front
passage on Tuesday. No significant precipitation is expected with
this frontal passage at this time.

Temperatures are expected to decrease with this frontal passage,
although confidence in how much is rather low at this point due to
the possibility of this event is still 7 days out.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions under
periods of considerable upper-level cloudiness over the next 24
hours. Local IFR conditions will be possible in the early morning
hours at KGCN due to smoke from a nearby burn. Gusty north
easterly winds will develop during the late morning and afternoon
hours Wednesday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...The persistent pattern of dry and unseasonably warm
weather with generally light winds will continue through Saturday as
strong high pressure builds over the state. Daytime temperatures
will warm through Friday, with highs becoming 15 to 20 degrees
above normal. High temperature records may be set Wednesday
through Friday.






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