Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 241722

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1022 AM MST Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and breezy conditions will persist this weekend
as a low pressure system sits over the Great Basin. Expect
freezing temperatures for much of the high country Sunday and
Monday mornings. A chance for precipitation returns starting
Wednesday of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Freezing morning low temperatures occurred across
much of northern Arizona this morning - namely at locations above
6000 feet and certain lower terrain areas (including Chino Valley
and Paulden) in northern Yavapai County. Similar low temperatures
are expected tomorrow morning. Otherwise, look for breezy
conditions today, with high temperatures around 8 to 12 degrees
below normal at most places.


.PREV DISCUSSION /322 AM MST/... A deep trough of low pressure
continues to move slowly across the Rocky mountains bringing cool
temps to the region through the weekend. Breezy conditions on
Sunday will give way to lighter winds across the area as the axis
of the trough pushes past Northern Arizona late Sunday night and
Monday morning.

As the bulk of the energy moves out of the southwest and quickly
up to the northern plains, the trough looks to remain in the area
allowing for cool conditions to stay through the middle of next
week. Some slight increase in temperatures every day is expected
as the air mass moderates out, however temperatures will stay
around 5 degrees below seasonal averages.

By Wednesday... the next round of energy will stream down the
Pacific Coast, and deepen the trough as it crosses the axis. This
will create the next potential round of showers over the four
corners area.

Models have been rather agressive with the amount of moisture
that gets tapped from the Gulf of Mexico with this developing
system. Have increased pops for this system due to multiple model
suites from multiple runs converging on this solution, however due
to the fact that is four days out at the soonest, have left some
room for increasing confidence to up pops if trends continue
towards this solution.

The cooler flow looks to break down by the end of next week with a
ridge of high pressure redeveloping over the southwest united
states, confidence in this quick transition is rather low due at
this time but will continue to update the forecast as subsequent
runs refine this time period.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions will prevail
over northern Arizona through the TAF period. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...For today and Monday, look for light winds, dry
weather and well below normal temperatures.

Tuesday through Thursday...Expect light winds and below normal
temperatures. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase
on Wednesday and Thursday as a weather disturbance and associated
moisture sets up over Arizona. Wetting precipitation amounts are
possible across Navajo and Apache counties.






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