Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280430
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECASTED TO BE AS MUSH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&
.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER ARIZONA ARE THINNING AS THEY
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE FOR CURRENT
PROGRESSION OF HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /339 PM MST/...
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS IN THE FORECAST AS A
DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC SLOWLY PUSHES THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER ARIZONA SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
IN ADDITION...EXPECT STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...WINDS SLOW AS SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS SLACKEN AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST.

FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE PATH OF THE
CLOSED LOW CONTINUE TO DIVERGE. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND SEVERAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECAST THE CLOSED LOW TO EVOLVE INTO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN ARIZONA IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
FORECAST A DRIER PATTERN WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE PRESENT UNCERTAINTY...CHANCE
POPS SEEM WARRANTED. I MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCT-BKN250. LIGHT SFC WINDS THROUGH 17Z FRI
BECOMING S-SW 5-15KT...THEN LIGHT AFTER 02Z SATURDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/RR
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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