Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 232155

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
255 PM MST SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms each
day through next week, mainly along and south of the Mogollon Rim
with drier conditions to the north. Hot afternoon temperatures
will continue through the weekend, especially below 4000 feet.


.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
ongoing across portions of northern Arizona this afternoon, mainly
along the Mogollon Rim into the White Mountains and across northern
Navajo and Apache Counties. Storm coverage should increase a bit
more, especially along the Mogollon Rim late this afternoon into
this evening as the cap breaks. However, the lack of MLCAPE due to
the dry boundary layer should prevent much in the way of any
strong storms.

Sunday...Low-level flow will be out of the west/northwest Sunday,
meaning relatively dry air will still be in place below 600 mb or
so north of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Southerly flow
aloft will continue to advect good moisture above 600 mb into the
region. As such, we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms
develop Sunday afternoon, mainly from Flagstaff south and
southeastward into the White Mountains. Showers and storms may
redevelop late Sunday night across southern Navajo and Apache
counties as a weak disturbance moves into southeast Arizona.

Monday through Tuesday...Moisture will begin to creep back
farther north into Arizona, which means storm chances gradually go
up. The best chances will once again be along and south of the
Mogollon Rim and across the White Mountains. Northeasterly flow
will steer the storms off the higher terrain into the lower
elevations of Yavapai County and across Gila County during the
late afternoon and evening.

Wednesday and beyond...The upper-level high will shift into the
southern Nevada area, bringing northerly winds into Arizona. This
will effectively advect drier air into the region, so storm
chances will decrease, especially north of the Mogollon Rim.
Scattered storms chances will continue along and south of the Rim.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Isolated to scattered storms
will continue to develop this afternoon and evening mainly from KFLG
eastward. VFR conditions will prevail but local MVFR conditions and
gusty winds will be possible near any shower or storm. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 7
PM MST this evening FOR AZZ006-037.




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