Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 221625

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
925 AM MST Sat Apr 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and warm weather through the weekend. High
pressure will deliver light winds through tonight. Conditions
will turn windy starting Sunday, lasting for much of the week as a
series of weather disturbances brush Arizona. The stronger of
these systems will lead to a cooling trend starting Wednesday in
addition to a slight chance of showers.


The short term forecast is in good shape with no updates needed.


.PREV DISCUSSION /332 AM MST/...For today, high pressure will
result in warm and dry weather. Weak pressure gradients will
ensure light winds through tonight.

Starting Sunday, a series of shortwave troughs will move across
Arizona. The main impact of these systems will be to deliver
windy daytime conditions to northern Arizona as pressure
gradients strengthen aloft. The windiest periods look to be
Sunday/Monday and Wednesday/Thursday with the stronger shortwaves.
The winds will be most gusty during the afternoons with daytime
heating/vertical mixing, especially from the Mogollon Rim
northward. There is a Fire Weather Watch out on Sunday from the
Mogollon Rim northward for dry and windy conditions. After Monday,
moisture will be on the increase and a cooling trend will set in
under the general pattern of troughing over Arizona. A stronger
shortwave and cold front may even usher in a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms starting Wednesday lasting into Friday.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...VFR conditions under mostly clear
skies are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds generally in the 5-
10KT range through 15Z Sunday...then increasing to 15-20KT by 18Z
Sunday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will bring generally light winds and
much above normal temperatures today. A passing trough will cause
strong southwest winds for most locations along and north of the
Mogollon Rim on Sunday, and a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect
from Noon to 7 PM MST.

Monday through Wednesday...Gusty southwest winds will continue
Monday with critical fire weather conditions possible again, mainly
northeast of the Mogollon Rim. Increasing humidity is forecast for
Tuesday and especially Wednesday as another trough approaches.
Occasionally windy conditions should continue with a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
FOR AZZ104-106-107-109-111>116-139-140.




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