Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 050449
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 PM MST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY... MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. ANOTHER
DRY PUNCH OF AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY
AND SHOULD CAUSE DECREASES IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES.

MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF
WEATHER AND TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /250 PM MST/...FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ON THURSDAY...MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
TO RETURN TO ARIZONA. PROGS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOW
THE RICHEST LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIONS MOVING INTO YAVAPAI THEN
COCONINO COUNTIES THURSDAY. THIS MOISTURE THEN SLOWLY SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD FRIDAY AS WINDS ALOFT TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WE MAY SEE SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF COCONINO COUNTY DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR. ON SATURDAY,
THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT BASIN. DRYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM PAGE TO PAYSON WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUSTY SW WINDS ARE STILL
IN THE CARDS ACROSS COCONINO COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS EAST
OF THIS LINE WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONFINE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS REGION ON SUNDAY. PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP ON MONDAY WITH A DECENT MOISTURE RETURN. PRECIP CHANCES
WERE SET TO CLIMO VALUES FOR EARLY AUGUST. THUS SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MAINLY VFR CONDS ACROSS NO. AZ
THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA SE OF A KPAN-KSJN LINE 19Z-
03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC/41
AVIATION...TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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