Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 292237

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
337 PM MST Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An increase in moisture will result in a chance of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the mountains of eastern
Arizona today into Wednesday with just a slight chance elsewhere.
A more stable air mass will move over the state starting Thursday
with the threat for thunderstorms generally ending. Otherwise,
seasonable temperatures will continue with some increase in
afternoon winds on Wednesday and Thursday.


.DISCUSSION...High pressure continues to dominate the weather
pattern across much of the western U.S. and will continue to do so
through the middle of this week. Overall, expect seasonably warm
temperatures through the week with a chance of afternoon showers
or thunderstorms and increased breezes by Wednesday and Thursday.

Thunderstorms have developed this afternoon over the White
Mountains of eastern Arizona. Some of these storms have produced
outflow winds of around 35 mph. These storms are expected to
persist until early evening before dissipating. This source of
moisture will gradually spread northwest across northern Arizona
over the next 24 hours. We expect shower or thunderstorm activity
to favor the mountains of eastern Arizona through Wednesday, with
a chance for storms extending as far west as about the Flagstaff
region for Tuesday and Wednesday. The biggest storm threat will
continue to be gusty outflow winds and lightning.

A slow moving west coast trough will gradually spread eastward
across the region Wednesday through Thursday delivering breezy
conditions. A drier air mass will spread across the state
Thursday pushing the moisture east of Arizona. A return to mainly
dry conditions is forecast from Thursday into the weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will continue over
northern Arizona for the next 24 hours. Moisture increasing from the
southeast will bring isolated -SHRA/-TSRA south of a KPAN-KRQE line
through 02Z. Additional shower development possible again in the
afternoon hours Tuesday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...On Tuesday, chances for showers  and thunderstorms
will spread northwest--mainly south of a Prescott-Page line. Strong
outflow winds are possible in the vicinity of storms, otherwise
winds will be light. A cooling trend begins Wednesday along
with another round of showers.

Thursday through Friday...The cooling trend continues Thursday along
with and a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. Drier
condtions develop Friday and Saturday as temperatures begin to
trend warmer.






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