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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261111
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
405 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. FAIR
WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR NORTHWEST THE PAST FEW
DAYS WILL SHIFT INTO CO/NM LATER TODAY...GIVING NORTHERN ARIZONA
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EASTWARD...THIS WILL ALLOW A CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BE PULLED UP INTO
ARIZONA...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS...DEVELOPING FIRST OVER
YAVAPAI/GILA COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN
SPREADING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE. EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY 0.10-0.40
INCHES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTH. SNOW LEVELS IN THIS MILD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN HIGH...
8500-9500 FEET WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER TROUGH SETS UP OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS
NEXT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TO OUR NORTH. THIS LOW SHOULD HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO WE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CLOSEST TO
OUR AREA. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERS INTO SATURDAY...THEN
DECREASES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A BIT COLDER...WITH SNOW LEVELS
POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN IS LOW THIS FAR OUT...AS MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO
CHANGE...SO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z TUES.
INCREASING CIRRUS THROUGH 18Z...THEN CIGS LOWERING TO AOA 11KFT MSL
BY 00Z TUE. AFT 00Z RAIN SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR SPREADING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ THROUGH 12Z TUES. SNOW LEVELS AOA
9000 FEET. SFC WINDS NORTHEAST-EAST 5-15KT THIS MORNING BECOMING
EAST SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF