Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271622
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 AM MST THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME DRYING WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES
ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BEFORE GRADUALLY COOLING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY TODAY
ACROSS NRN AZ. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING FROM BELLEMONT SHOWING GOOD
INSTABILITY. STORM STEERING WINDS ARE WESTERLY NOW BUT FORECAST TO
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. THE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
MAY ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE FROM THE RIM INTO NRN GILA AND YAVAPAI
COUNTIES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 435 AM...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RE-
CIRCULATE UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW WILL
BECOME RATHER WEAK AND UNORGANIZED DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL
CHANGE THE CHARACTER OF STORM ACTIVITY...FROM BEING SOMEWHAT
DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN...TO SLOW MOVING TERRAIN-BASED STORMS. BY THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE
WEST COAST WILL PUSH THE RIDGE EAST OF OUR STATE. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY DRY OUT THE WESTERN ZONES...BUT THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES WILL HAVE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THIS
DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND EJECTING S/WVS THAT WILL INCREASE
SHEAR AND DYNAMIC FORCING. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BEFORE GRADUALLY COOLING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH 02Z FRI. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GENERALLY BE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
IFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC...GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE STRONGEST STORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFT 02Z
FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL /  PETERSON
AVIATION...DL


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.