109
FXUS65 KFGZ 030510
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1010 PM MST Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread to scattered showers and thunderstorms
through Thursday. Drier and very warm conditions return for the
holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Widespread convection as expected today, with outflow
boundaries now back-building into the prevailing southerly flow.
This is a concern, as storm motion is slowing down and some training
has developed. Additionally, there are some modest dynamics over the
western and central zones due to a s/wv ejecting from the California
coast. This may prolong convection into the evening, especially from
the I-17 corridor westward. Not sure how far west the outflows will
propagate, for now, we are thinking to about the Prescott area.

As convection slowly winds down tonight, the trough axis from the
ejecting low will approach the Lower Colorado River. The trough axis
will then be a focal point for convection Thursday, largely from the
I-17 corridor eastward.

Behind the trough axis, expect much drier and more stable air
heading into Friday and the weekend. Simultaneously, a high will
build from the east. We expect a significant warming trend as a
result, with subdued convective chances, probably just the White Mtn
zones from Friday onward, maybe sneaking a bit back westward early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 03/06Z through Friday 04/06Z...Areas of -SHRA
and ISO -TSRA continues to move northward overnight. SCT TSRA/SHRA
re-develops after 18Z, mainly north of a KPRC-KPAN-KJTC line, and
continues through 03Z. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic
outflow winds expected in and around TS. Winds SE-SW 5-10 kts
overnight, becoming W/SW after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 04/06Z through Sunday 06/06Z...ISO -SHRA/-TSRA
possible Friday afternoon in vicinity of KSOW/KJTC. Brief MVFR
conditions and gusty, erratic outflow winds expected in and around
TS. Otherwise, VFR conditions with winds S/SW 10-15 kts on Friday,
subsiding to 5-10 kts on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Rest of Today through Friday...Showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the overnight hours tonight.
Heavy rain, hail, and gusty winds are the primary concerns with
storms this afternoon/evening. Additional showers/thunderstorms
forecast for Thursday afternoon, before much drier conditions return
on Friday. Minimum RH values look to drop from 20-40% on Thursday to
10-20% on Friday. Outside of gusty storm-driven winds, look for
south through west winds 10-20 mph.

Saturday through Monday...Hot and dry conditions expected through
the weekend, before another monsoon pattern sets up for next week.
Minimum RH values look to generally be between 10-20% each
afternoon, with light southwest winds. Precipitation chances on
Monday look to be mostly Flagstaff eastward.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff