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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241051
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
350 AM MST THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK DEFORMATION AREA OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA HAS
ENABLED PERSISTENT LIGHT SHOWER AND SUBSTANTIAL DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
OVER MUCH OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD THROUGH TODAY...WITH POSSIBLE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS A RESULT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT...BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STILL A BIT CAPPY. DRIER ALOFT MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE EAST MAY ALSO HAMPER ACTIVITY FOR A FEW DAYS
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. ASIDE FROM THESE DETAILS...A FAIRLY
STANDARD MONSOONAL CIRCULATION WILL SET UP FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME DRYING NEXT WEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DECENT...BUT INSTABILITY IS
A BIT WEAK. LOW TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE GRADE MONSOONAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT. WITH PARTIALLY
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED -SHRA TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...PRIMARILY WEST OF A KAYENTA TO WINSLOW LINE. AREAS OF
SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY PRODUCE MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF
KSEZ...KFLG...AND KGCN. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40
KTS AND BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF