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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281653
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
953 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...MONSOON MOISTURE DIMINISHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND LOW WIND SHEAR WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS...SO HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. CLOUD COVER REMAINS ACROSS SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS YAVAPAI AND
WESTERN COCONINO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THERE FIRST...WITH A SLIGHTLY DELAYED
INITIATION ELSEWHERE. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AND THEN INTO
NORTHWEST AZ. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND THE YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT STORMS TO FORM OVER HIGH TERRAIN FIRST...THEN
SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE WILD CARD IS AN MCV CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER GILA COUNTY. THIS MCV COULD INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ITS VICINITY...SO WE WILL BE WATCHING
THIS AREA CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /338 AM MST/...THE REST OF THIS WEEK...DEEP
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CAUSES THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD...CENTERING OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM. EXPECT A
GRADUAL THINNING OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH A LESS FAVORABLE
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LEADING TO A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN MOISTURE BY NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL RUN CLOSE TO AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD
+TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR VSBY AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004>008-
015-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF