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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 192236
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ON SUNDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF
STATE WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
 PROGS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG A LINE FROM PAGE TO PHX THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE HIGHEST CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING COUNTS IN NE GILA COUNTY AS
WELL AS THE BOOTHEEL OF APACHE COUNTY. PRECIP COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A FEW DAYTIME SHOWERS / TSTORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

ON MONDAY...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA AS A FAST
MOVING RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE MAIN IMPACT SHOULD  BE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ARIZONA. ON WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND
AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP THROUGH FRIDAY. PROGS ARE BRINGING A
BROAD TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SATURDAY MEANING GUSTY SW WINDS
POSSIBLE THAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT-BKN CU/TCU/SC AND ISOLD CB
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 02Z-04Z. EXPECT CIGS FROM 5-8KFT AGL WITH ISOLD
MVFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. EXPECT VFR AFTER 02Z-04Z THIS EVENING
WITH ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA AGAIN AFT 18Z SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON. WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY...DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES. LESS WIND
AND SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF