Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250437
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
936 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
SUNDAY. BRISK NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LESS WIND RETURN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN SATURDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM DUE NEXT WEEK.

&&
.DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES ABOVE WHAT THEY
WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
HAS ALLOWED THE TEMPERATURE TO DROP WITHIN A FEW DEGREES FROM 24
HOURS AGO. CURRENT FORECAST HAS OVERNIGHT LOWS 8 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN WINDY AREAS. THIS LOOKS GOOD WITH NO
UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /320 PM MST/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS WIDESPREAD GRAVITY WAVE
UNDULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH AS INCREASING
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN
THE 25-40 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AS A 145 KT JET STREAM SPEED MAX
CROSSES THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE 4
CORNERS.

SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH PLEASANT LATE FALL WEATHER IN STORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THOUGH.

FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR
THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PROGS ARE HAVING SOME TIMING ISSUES AS THE
SHOW A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST AND THEN
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE GFS IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER IN BRINGING
A MOIST COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY (DAY 7). THE
ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM ARRIVING NEXT TUESDAY (WHICH IS BEYOND THIS 7
DAY FORECAST PERIOD). SO THIS FORECAST HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
OVER THE WEEKEND AND A COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...NW SFC WINDS 15-25G30KTS
OVERNIGHT ALONG AND JUST SW OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND BRADSHAW MTNS
WITH LIGHTER WINDS TO THE NORTH. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MOST AREAS
TUESDAY. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/DL
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF













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