Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 060944

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
244 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect breezy northeast winds and near normal
temperatures today. From tonight through Thursday, a dry cold
front will bring a round of below normal temperatures and strong
northeast winds to locations along and southwest of the Mogollon
Rim. High pressure will lead to warming temperatures and lighter
winds from Friday through the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...For today, expect a round of dry weather, breezy
northeast winds and near normal temperatures. From tonight
through Thursday morning, an upper level shortwave trough and a
dry surface cold front will sweep across the area from north to
south bringing very strong northeast winds to locations along and
immediately southwest of the Mogollon Rim and higher terrain in
Yavapai County. Localized gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range will be
possible in these areas Thursday morning.

The coldest day of the forecast period will be on Thursday as
cold air streams into the area behind the cold front. Daytime
temperatures will be between 5 to 10 degrees below normal at most
places, with high temperatures ranging from the mid-30`s to
mid-40`s along and north of the Mogollon Rim. In addition, breezy
northeast winds will persist, with the strongest winds continuing
along and southwest of the Mogollon Rim.

Beginning Friday, high pressure will build across the western
United States bringing a prolonged period of dry weather and
warming temperatures. Above normal daytime temperatures are
forecast by the weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions across
northern Arizona over the next 24 hours. Surface winds east-
northeast from 10-20 kt through the period. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Mainly dry, northerly flow aloft will continue
today and Thursday. Yet another disturbance will dive across New
Mexico tonight and Thursday, bringing increased east through
northeast winds and pronounced cooling/drying to portions of
northern Arizona on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Dry weather will continue with high pressure
building over the west coast. Daytime temperatures will slowly
return to average or above average, with easterly winds gradually






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