Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 282202
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 PM MST FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH MID
EVENING THEN CLEARING SKIES. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING
MOISTURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR INTO
NORTHWEST ARIZONA MONDAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... WE ARE SEEING WIDELY SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION ALOFT IS CENTERED OVER NW
AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THIS
FEATURE INTO NEW MEXICO SATURDAY. THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
CENTER WILL BRING A DAYS WORTH OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO NORTHERN
AZ. MOISTURE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE STORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE...THOUGH NOT TO THE LEVELS SEEN THURSDAY. WE HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PUSH INTO NORTHWESTERN
AZ. THE BEST TIME FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH OF A SELIGMAN TO WINDOW ROCK
LINE OWING TO MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAYING THE
MONSOON PLUME.

FOR NEXT WEEK...PROGS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG
DRYING TREND STARTING MONDAY IN WESTERN AZ AND MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WERE BASED ON GFS LI AND POP
FORECASTS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE THREAT FOR STORMS FROM 10 PM TO 10
AM IS NIL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT APACHE COUNTY. SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS APACHE COUNTY WITH ISOLATED DAYTIME
COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. ON TUESDAY PRETTY MUCH ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE
EAST OF A KAYENTA TO PAYSON LINE AND BY WEDNESDAY ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE AZ NM BORDER. MAX TEMPS WERE RAISED 1-3
DEGREES EACH DAY NEXT WEEK OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. EXPECT -TSRA TO
DECREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE FROM 01-02Z. ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP AROUND 18-19Z SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS
NEAR STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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