Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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289
FXUS65 KFGZ 162146
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
246 PM MST SAT MAY 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF BY LATE EVENING...AS A COLD
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE REGION. AFTER SOME IMPROVEMENT ON
SUNDAY...A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A
TRAILING DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
ROTATING THROUGH NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND IS HELPING IN SOME PART
TO FUEL INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING CONTINUING
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WE OBSERVED
GRAUPEL (FROZEN PRECIPITATION) DOWN TO 7000 FEET OUT OF THE
SHOWERS HERE IN BELLEMONT THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT SOME SNOW OR
ICE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THIS EVENING DOWN TO 7000
FEET...WITH RAIN BELOW. EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET AND
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT.

A BRIEF BREAK ENSUES ON SUNDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY
YET STILL REMAIN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID MAY.

LONG WAVE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK CONTINUING THE ACTIVE MAY WEATHER PATTERN AND COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AMPLE SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS NEXT TROUGH (SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SYSTEM) ALONG WITH MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS WARMER WITH SNOWFALL BEING MUCH LESS
OF A CONCERN AND CONFINED TO ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH YET
ANOTHER TROUGH POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A KPRC-KFLG-KPGA UNTIL 03Z AS A
STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER ANY SHOWERS.
SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM 7000-8000 FEET ABOVE MSL. AFTER
03Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS
ARIZONA FOR SUNDAY. LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES. ON MONDAY, AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE
PACIFIC WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH DAY WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM



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