Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
445 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect colder temperatures today, behind a cold front
that moved through overnight. Gusty southwest winds will continue
east of Winslow, slowly decreasing through the day. A few light snow
showers from the Grand Canyon to Window Rock will also dry up after
sunrise this morning. Cool and dry conditons will develop Friday and
Saturday. An unsettled pattern arrives late in the weekend and early
next week, with better chances for rain and snow.


.DISCUSSION...A cold front is moving through north-central Arizona
early this morning. This front is bringing some light snow to the
west facing slopes of the Grand Canyon and Kaibab Plateau, as well
as the Chuska Mountains and Black Mesa. Gusty southwest winds
continue ahead of the front, mainly in the Little Colorado River
Valley. Much colder and drier air will move across much of the CWA
during the day today, as the front moves to the east.

Cold and dry zonal flow will dominate the weather pattern through
Saturday, before a series of winter storms affect the southwest
United States Sunday through Tuesday. Models still differ on the
possibility of a sub-tropical moisture tap with the storm on
Monday/Tuesday, as well as the ability to phase with a colder
northern stream system. This will have large impacts on the amount
of snowfall in our area. For now, we have a minor event arriving
Sunday, with higher POPs on Monday and Tuesday. We have played it
conservative for now, until we see if the northern stream will phase
with a deeper moisture tap. Stay tuned.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hours. A passing cold front will bring sct-bkn110-130
through 18Z as it moves from west to east. Most areas will see wind
speeds between 10 to 20 knots. However, isolated gusts above 35
knots will be possible along the front and just northeast of higher
terrain. Wind speeds may weaken before daylight, but breezy westerly
winds are expected to re-develop after 17Z. Winds will become light
after 00Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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