Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240344
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
845 PM MST MON MAR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS FOR TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...BRINGING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BREEZY WINDS WILL DECREASE BY 5 TO 10 MPH TOMORROW AS
THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVES EAST AWAY FROM ARIZONA
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. A SECOND WEAKER
TROUGH DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING IN
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
SECOND TROUGH CAUSING BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY.

EXPECT THIS DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF MARCH.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THIS TROUGH
PASSES...THOUGH AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STILL BE 4-6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION WHERE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE NEXT WEAK TROUGH COULD AFFECT THE REGION NEXT
MONDAY...THOUGH MODEL FORECASTS ARE INCONSISTENT AT THIS POINT. WE
INCLUDED LOW POPS FOR MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....BOHLIN/JJ
AVIATION...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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