Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 172204
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
305 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
THURSDAY. EXPECT AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 5500 FEET. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF THREE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION SOUTH OF
I-40. WILL DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FROM FLAGSTAFF
NORTHWARD...AND KEEP THEM GOING FROM THE YAVAPAI CO MOUNTAINS...
ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM TO THE WHITE MTNS THROUGH 8 PM.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THIS WAVE PASSES
BY...THOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND
WE GET SOME MID LEVEL DRYING...SO AREAS OF FOG WERE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE THIRD AND FINAL WAVE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY... BEGINNING AROUND
SUNRISE IN WESTERN AZ AND SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THIS PERIOD IN THE LATEST FORECASTS...BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT AT THIS TIME...MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WAVE EXITS THE REGION RAPIDLY
THURSDAY EVENING.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE MUCH
WEAKER WITH SATURDAYS DISTURBANCE WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK FOR COOL NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS AND FAST NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A LARGE AND WARM RIDGE ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PUSH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO START A STRONG WARMING TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...TWO WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
ACROSS ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH WIDESPREAD AND MIXED MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE
WAS OVER SW ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST. THE SECOND WAS
OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF -SHRA/ -SHSN WITH EACH WAVE...AND
STRATUS WITH MIST AND FOG BETWEEN WAVES. SNOW LEVELS FROM 5K FT MSL
ON THE KAIBAB PLATEAU TO 6K FT MSL IN THE WHITE MTNS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ008-016>17.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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