Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 190401

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
901 PM MST Sat Mar 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions to
continue through Monday. Expect breezy afternoon winds this
weekend and into early next week. A chance of rain and snow
showers returns Wednesday through Thursday as a cold front will
move across the area.


Periodic upper-level cloudiness will continue through tonight.
Little change anticipated to the current short-term forecast this


.PREV DISCUSSION /350 PM MST/...A broad ridge of high pressure
will allow for dry, warm, and at times breezy conditions to
continue across the area through the weekend and into early next
week. An approaching trough will begin to usher the large scale
ridge off to the east, as increasing cloud cover and the potential
for showers increases...especially after Tuesday night. By
Wednesday, wind speeds will begin to approach criteria levels for
a wind advisory across parts of the high country. Have kept
speeds below that threshold for the time being, but gusty breezy
conditions can be expected ahead of the cold front that will push
across the area Wednesday and Thursday.

Models continue to show widespread showers spreading across the
area Wednesday and through the day Thursday. Snow levels look to
fall below 7000 feet with the frontal passage. This could allow
for some snow accumulation overnight into Thursday morning. No
winter weather highlights are anticipated at this time, with any
snow that does accumulate quickly melting in the daylight hours on

Since this system is a ways out, expect the forecast concerning
the storm to become more refined as the week progresses.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...VFR conditions will persist
throughout the next twenty-four hours under occasional upper-level
cloudiness. SW winds gusting 15-25 KT will develop after 16-17Z
Sunday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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