Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311638
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
938 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK EACH AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT LESS ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA.

&&

.UPDATE...THE MORNING KFGZ SOUNDING HAD 0.84 PWAT AND A CAP AT
AROUND 570 MB. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID SURFACE HEATING AND STORMS SHOULD
START TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 1100. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A
MESOSCALE CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES.
THIS WILL AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS AND WILL UPDATE
TO INCREASE THE POPS THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /352 AM MST/... MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH STORM
COVERAGE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOMEWHAT DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SHIFT THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES...THOUGH WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE WEST. DAILY
MAX/MIN TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THRU THE 7-DAY
FORECAST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS)
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION
WILL BE LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY RAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GREATEST STORM HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE MONSOON MOISTURE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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