Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 162300
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
350 PM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF I-40. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING AND POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PRECIPITATION.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-40 BOTH OF THESE DAYS. SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AREA RADARS SHOWING TWO PRECIP MODES ACROSS ARIZONA...SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LEADING EDGE OF ODILES CLOUD
BAND...AND MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AZ. BOTH AREAS ARE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS ODILE
ADVANCES TOWARDS AZ.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO POP AND QPF FORECASTS FOR
THESE DAYS. THESE CHANGES ARE TO INCREASE PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS
FOR NORTHERN GILA COUNTY THROUGH THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS (IE PAYSON, CARRIZO, WHITE RIVER, HONDAH, ALPINE AREAS)
AS THIS AREA SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN NORTHERN AZ.
CURRENT THINKING FOR THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

AREAS NORTH OF THE RIM SHOULD SEE SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT A LIMITING FACTOR IS THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELD FROM ODILE.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
THE REMANDS OF ODILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ROCKY PT MEXICO TO
NEAR GLOBE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST PRECIP THREAT SHOULD BE
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DECAYING SYSTEM...WHICH AGAIN APPEARS TO
BE FROM PAYSON THROUGH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN THIS FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. PROGS SHOW EASTERLY AND NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS COCONINO
COUNTY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD DECREASE PRECIP COVERAGE IN
THIS AREA.

FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...PROGS STILL DISAGREE ON A NEW TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST / SRN CAL AND ITS MOVEMENT. THE GFS WANTS TO
DRAW DEEP MOISTURE BACK ACROSS NRN AZ WHERE IT INTERACTS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME SHEAR PRODUCING A MORE SERIOUS TSTORM
THREAT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS NEW LOW WELL WEST OF ARIZONA. WE HAVE
LEFT SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY
02/03Z. LIGHT-MOD RAIN/VFR-MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF WEAKENING TROPICAL
STORM ODILE WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS EVENING...EXPANDING NORTHWARD
WITH TIME THROUGH TOMORROW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONES 007-008-012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









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