Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 261649

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
355 AM MST Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect drier conditions today as chances for showers and
thunderstorms retreat the White Mountains this afternoon. Aside from
a very slight chance of showers and thunderstorms near the White
Mountains again Tuesday afternoon, the rest of the week will feature
sunny skies and warm conditons, with gusty southwest winds.


.DISCUSSION...A trough approaching the central west coast will push
much drier mid-level air into the region starting today. This trough
will move into the Great Basin later today and Tuesday, flattening
the stubborn high amplitude ridge over the region and increasing
southwest winds. This will be a very dry airmass and today will be
the last day any convective showers have a real chance, mainly in
our the far southeastern part of our CWA.

Temperatures will continue to slowly retreat from the record highs
seen for the last week. However, due to the dry airmass and high sun
angle, hghts still support above normal conditions through the week.
Although heat products will not be active, keep in mind that we will
only be about 5-10 degrees from the high temperatures experienced
for the last several days. Other concerns will be for Fire Weather
as hot and dry conditons combine with stronger winds for much of
next week.


.AVIATION...For the 12z package...Local mvfr possible today due to
smoke from area wildfires, with showers and thunderstorms around the
White Mountains. Thunderstorms developing btwn 18z-02z. Sfc winds
this afternoon SW 10-20kt gusts to 30kt, strongest winds in Coconino
county. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Today is a transition day back to dry weather for
most of northern Arizona as westerly flow aloft returns. Afternoon
thunderstorm chances will linger around the White Mountains through
Tuesday. Expect afternoon wind speeds to increase through Tuesday,
with speeds approaching critical thresholds Tuesday afternoon. Warm
temperatures and low afternoon humidity will continue, along with
high Haines indices.

Wednesday through Friday...Dry weather and clear skies for all
through this period. Gusty afternoon winds speeds near critical
thresholds will continue Wednesday. Speeds are forecast to decrease
starting Thursday. Max temperatures to remain around 4 degrees above






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