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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310427
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 PM MST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STARTING FRIDAY...MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES
INCREASE AS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY AND TAPS INTO
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUED
TODAY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT CAPPED VERTICAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES...SLOWLY INCREASING OUR CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

A LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN CONTINUES FOR ONE MORE DAY ON THURSDAY AS
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD AWAY FROM ARIZONA. OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO
NORTH ORIENTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA OPENING THE DOOR FOR MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
MOVE UP INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MODERATE MONSOON ACTIVITY
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY EXTEND SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF