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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031609
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST TUE DEC 03 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA TODAY WITH VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. A POTENT COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS START
ON THE KAIBAB PLATEAU TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BUT HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY, SNOW TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, AND A SECOND STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ALONG A LINE FROM SALT LAKE CITY WESTWARD
THROUGH EUREKA CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. PROGS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE SURFACE FRONT NORTH OF ARIZONA THROUGH
SUNSET TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
HOUSEROCK VALLEY AND PAGE AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS EVENING
AND BE ALONG A LINE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO PRESCOTT BY 5 AM
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING. WE HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE KAIBAB PLATEAU FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY. LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO EXPAND THIS
ADVISORY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MID DAY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS THROUGH
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW LEVELS IN THE FRONTAL
BAND WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET. TODAYS 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE PRETTY
SKIMPY ON QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING AND KEEP PRECIP IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS ONLY. THUS WE HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS WEST OF A LINE
FROM KAYENTA TO PAYSON FOR THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME WESTERLY. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES GO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS FALL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY-PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE BRING ANOTHER
STRONG AND COLD SYSTEM SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST THEN ACROSS
ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE INCREASED FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS
THROUGH 02Z/WED. SW SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS
FROM 30-40KTS AFT 17Z-19Z...DECREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.
AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLD IFR IN -SHSN/SHSN WILL FORM ALONG A COLD
FRONT FROM 02-04Z NEAR KKNB AND WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARD KGCN AND KFLG
BY 05Z-08Z. FROM 08Z-12Z/WED...AREAS OF SN WITH IFR/LOCAL LIFR
AFFECTING LOCATIONS ABOVE 6KFT MSL NW OF A KPAN-KINW-K0V7 LINE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR
AZZ004>007-009-011>017-039-040.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY
FOR AZZ004.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/DL
AVIATION.......BOHLIN/JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF