Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 260436

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
936 PM MST Tue Apr 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Much lighter winds and warmer afternoon temperatures
are expected Wednesday. Winds will increase again on Thursday
before colder and wetter system impacts the northland Friday and
Saturday. Fair and warmer weather returns for Sunday.


.DISCUSSION...The cold front that brought the strong winds to
northern Arizona today has moved across the area this evening.
Have already updated the forecast with a cooler and quiet night
tonight. 9 PM MST temperatures are running 8 to 13 degrees (F)
cooler than last night at this time. Mountain valleys could drop
into the mid to lower 20s tonight.


.Prev Discussion /304 PM MST/...

For Wednesday and Thursday...Expect fair and warmer weather
Wednesday as a milder air mass moves across the state. A weak
shortwave passing through the 4 corners Wednesday night will bring
a slight chance of light showers to areas east of a line from Page
to Window Rock.

On Thursday, gusty west-northwest winds to return as a strong
cold front approaches our area from the north. Moisture is
increasing Thursday night once again across the 4 corners and
we kept the chance of showers going, any qpf to be light.

On Friday and Saturday...The GFS and European model forecasts
continue to show a strong trough and cold front moving southward
across northern AZ of Friday. The main impacts from this front
will be temperatures from 10 to 20 degrees below normal both days
and gusty winds Friday. There is a potential for showers and even
some snow in the mountains, though amounts should be light. Best
chances for showers and greatest amounts are currently shown to
be in the 4 corners once again. Wind chills Saturday afternoon
could be in the upper 30s for areas above 7000 feet.

Fair and warmer weather returns for Sunday and early next week.

.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...VFR conditions are expected for
the next 24 hours. Light winds are expected for the TAF sites for
the rest of tonight. Winds Expect west to northwest winds
10-20KTS to develop again around 17Z to around 01Z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...West winds will continue to be gusty Wednesday
afternoon. Minimum humidities are not expected to drop below
critical values for a lengthy duration. Dry and breezy conditions
with near normal temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Unsettled conditions with breezy west winds
each day. Increasing chance of showers and cooler for Friday and






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