Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

FXUS65 KFGZ 261138

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
438 AM MST FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a chance of thunderstorms and cooler than
normal daytime temperatures through the weekend as a weak low
pressure system moves into Arizona. A drying and warming trend is
expected early next week, before increasing moisture and storm
chances return by mid week.


.DISCUSSION...At 4 AM...areas of rain with a few thunderstorms
were moving eastward across central and northern Arizona producing
widespread 0.20"-0.50" rainfall amounts since late Thursday
evening. Expecting this activity to shift into eastern Arizona
through mid morning and then dissipate. Otherwise, a weak area of
low pressure located to our west will move into western Arizona
Saturday then into central parts of the state for Sunday. This low
will provide for cooler than normal mid-level temperatures (which
increases instability) as well as some weak lift. Should see
enough sun by early afternoon to get some storm development over
the higher terrain of Coconino and Yavapai counties. Recent high
res model runs show a delayed start to additional convection for
the rest of the region, probably due to morning clouds and cool
boundary layer following this morning`s rain. Storm threats with
today`s activity will be locally heavy rainfall/flooding, and
mostly small hail. Saturday and Sunday, there will be some drying
in the boundary layer especially over central and northwest
Arizona, though even cooler mid-level temps near the weak low will
offset this somewhat. PoP values were increased a bit for the
weekend in the latest package.

Drier and warmer weather is forecast Monday into Tuesday with the
best chance of storms near the AZ/NM line. Later Tuesday into
Thursday, a trough over the west coast could pull deeper moisture
back north into the area increasing our thunderstorm chances.


.AVIATION...For the 12z package...Isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight with general storm
motion to the northeast. Brief MVFR conditions will be possible
under the stronger showers. After 17Z, expect at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing first over higher terrain,
with storm motions to the east-northeast and into lower terrain
areas. MVFR visibilities will be possible with the stronger storms.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.