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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201616
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO  THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE
LOOK FOR MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. FAIR AND WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MONDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
PASSING COLD FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER WINDS MAY RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS WELL INTO NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AVER AZ. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO YESTERDAY BUT WARMING THROUGH THE
COLUMN. THUS EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
FIRING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN FIRST...WITH STORM MOTION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION 345 AM...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED THE REGION SATURDAY HAS MOVED INTO NEW
MEXICO. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH OTHERWISE MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON MONDAY...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS A FAST
MOVING RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF ARIZONA. ON WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL...WITH BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING IN EASTERN
ARIZONA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE LOW. STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCT-BKN CUMULUS AT 14KFT MSL WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA/ -TSRA OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH BRIEF GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTIVE CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVELY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIER AND WARMER TREND
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN ARIZONA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON
TUESDAY WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AREA-WIDE...BUT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS. DRY
AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH LATE TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR AZ FIRE ZONES 105>110-112>114-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL / JJ
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF