Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 211042

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
342 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and above average temperatures are
forecast through Wednesday. Expect breezy winds Wednesday
afternoon followed by much colder temperatures Thursday as a
passing cold front moves through the area. There will be a chance
of showers from Wednesday into Thursday, while additional chances
for precipitation return late in the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...A high pressure ridge axis stretches from New
Mexico northeast into the central plains this morning with a low
pressure trough across the Pacific Northwest. This will keep
Arizona in a warm southwesterly flow. High temperatures today will
max out around 10 degrees above average for late February. We
expect mid and upper level clouds to increase and spread east
through this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings indicate
just enough moisture across northwestern Arizona around the Grand
Canyon region for a few very light showers to develop.

Expect increasing southwest winds on Wednesday as the trough moves
further inland and a cold front approaches Arizona. Northern
Arizona will see wind gusts of 30-40 MPH and a Wind Advisory may
be needed for areas north of the Mogollon Rim.

Model trends continue to look drier with the frontal passage late
Wednesday/Thursday, but still show potential for some
precipitation so will keep low chances for showers in the
forecast primarily for areas from around Flagstaff north.

Forecast model guidance is trending later with the weekend trough
passage with better potential for rain and snow from Sunday
afternoon through Tuesday. There is consistency among operational
model runs with an initial wave bringing precipitation Sunday
afternoon into Monday followed by a colder trough moving through
on Tuesday. There is good model consistency on shifting the
precipitation later in the weekend into early next week, but
there is still plenty of spread on resulting precipitation and
snow level impacts. We have adjusted precip chances accordingly
and kept a blended approach to temperatures and snow level
forecasts in this period.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hours. ISOLD -SHRA possible from around KGCN northwest
20Z-06Z. Probability of occurrence too low to include in KGCN TAF.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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