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442
FXUS65 KFGZ 230301
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
801 PM MST THU SEP 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will
continue ahead of a cold front that will move west to east through
the region overnight. Cooler conditions will develop on Friday,
with continued dry and slightly warmer daytime temperatures over
the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...A line of showers and thunderstorms is just entering
western Coconino County in association with a cold front and cold
low pressure system approaching. This line is expected to push
east across northern AZ this evening bringing another round of
scattered showers and storms. Given the frontal forcing for ascent
and ample wind shear in place ahead of the approaching trough...a
strong to severe storm or two cannot be ruled out. Have updated
the short term forecast to reflect the expected trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /329 PM MST/...An upper low is located over
Nevada and will move into Utah overnight, pushing a cold front
from west to east across our region overnight. Latest hi-res
models runs show potential for a line of showers & storms with the
front, so Pops were kept up through midnight from Flagstaff
westward, and through sunrise east of Flagstaff. There is still a
low chance of a few stronger or locally severe t-storms over the
next several hours ahead of the front, mainly for areas north and
west of Flagstaff. Wind will also remain elevated until the front
passes, and may actually increase for a while just ahead of the
front.

Drier and cooler conditions are expected Friday behind the front.
Just enough moisture lingers near the AZ/NM border for a low
chance of showers. With the drier and cooler air mass in place,
low temperatures Saturday morning should be among the coldest so
far this season, with freezing temperatures down to the 6500 foot
level. May need to consider a freeze warning but will watch latest
guidance and make decision on later shifts. Rest of the forecast
through the weekend and into next week looks generally dry, though
there are some disagreement among guidance and a low chance that
some moisture could return early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...A band of showers and
thunderstorms are developing along a cold front currently over the
western edge of Coconino County. This band will sweep eastward
across the northern third of Arizona tonight. Low clouds at or below
3000 ft agl with scattered MVFR and isolated IFR conditions are
expected for areas along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Breezy
southerly winds will also develop tonight just ahead of cold frontal
passage. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT/JJ
AVIATION...Bohlin


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff