Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261121
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
421 AM MST TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WET AND COOL
STORM SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT
TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY AS THE LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG WIND AND SHOWERS MONDAY
SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE WEATHER ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
ACROSS THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE WETTER THAN MONDAY`S AND JUST ABOUT AS COLD,
THOUGH THANKFULLY NOT NEARLY AS WINDY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS
FALL TO AROUND 7000 FEET WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
ABOVE THE 7500-8000 FT LEVEL. CONTINUED COOL FRIDAY WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT IN HANDLING THE NEXT LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
STATE. THE 00Z RUN OF GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE WEAKER AND
FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW TRACK WHILE THE EURO RUN WAS
FARTHER WEST, BRINGING THE LOW CENTER RIGHT INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA.
FOR NOW, DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST, CONTINUING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS NRN AZ THROUGH 12Z WEDS. AREAS EAST AND NORTH OF A SUPAI-KSEZ-
KSJN LINE TO SEE ISOLD-SCT SHRA OR SHSN THROUGH 03Z WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE AZ NM BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC WINDS WESTERLY 10-20KT GUSTS 20-30KT BTWN 17Z TUES-03Z WEDS
OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM TODAY. DRY AND
BREEZY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON VENTILATION WILL BE
VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT EACH DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SERIES OF STORMS SYSTEM WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS MAY FALL ON THURSDAY
ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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