Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311106
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 AM MST SUN MAY 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. SUNDAY WILL THE THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR
THIS YEAR. THEN THERE WILL BE A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...COOLER WEATHER IS THE FORECAST...WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON FRIDAY AND LAST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&
.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES FOR 10-30% CHC OF HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. A WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE MONDAY CAUSING INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
FORECAST DECREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THIS TIME, EXPECT COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES (AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL) AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 20-30 MPH AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. IN
ADDITION, BOTH MODELS FORECAST A CLOSED LOW TO DROP DOWN THE WEST
COAST INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE NEXT WORK WEEK. THE GFS TAPS INTO
A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AND PREDICTS SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AZ FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS, AND
CLIMATOLOGY LEANS TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION, THEN FOR NOW, A SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR  CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CHANCES FOR BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
AND WHITE MOUNTAIN REGIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
OUR EASTERN FIRE ZONES NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN



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