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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 040948
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
248 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SWITCHING TO NORTHEASTERLY BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. AFTER THAT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THURSDAY PROMOTING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFYING SYSTEM
DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN AZ. THIS WOULD DRIVE A FAIRLY
POTENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD STILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT DUE TO THE DRY OVERLAND PATH OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION UPWARD DUE TO BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM UP QUICKLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. LIGHT SFC WINDS BCMG SW-W
5-15KT AND GUSTS UP 25KTS AFT 19Z. EAST OF KPGA-KRQE LINE BKN CLOUD
BASES AOA 12KFT MSL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DJO
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF