Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS65 KFGZ 241641

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
941 AM MST SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will increase across northern Arizona
from south to north through Tuesday. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms, especially over the mountains. On Wednesday drier
air should move areas north of Interstate 40 leading to only
isolated storm chances there. Elsewhere, expected scattered
convective activity to continue.


.DISCUSSION....The upper air sounding from Bellemont this morning
shows steeper lapse rates below H5 vs yesterday. Radar shows some
scattered precip now in central Navajo county, likely due to a
small scale vort max seen in low level radar velocity. Precip
chances from now through 5 pm today were increased, especially
over the high terrain from Flagstaff southeastward and the Yavapai
county mountains. Expect slow moving storms to produce lightning,
heavy rain and hail

Additionally an excessive heat warning continues for the Grand
Canyon Below 4000 feet through 8 pm this evening, with forecast
high temperatures from 109 to 114.

Monday and Tuesday - Subtropical moisture to move northward
through Tuesday due to light easterly then southerly mid level
wind trajectories. Moderate to high grade monsoon activity is
expected from the Mogollon Rim south today, with this storm
coverage spreading northward to the Utah border by Tuesday.

Starting Wednesday - A drier northerly flow is forecast which
will bring a downturn to only isolated afternoon thunderstorm
activity north of Interstate 40. Elsewhere the typical monsoon
pattern of scattered daytime and isolated overnight convective
activity to continue.


.AVIATION....For the 18Z package...Scattered SHRA/TSRA will redevelop
across northern AZ around 18Z Sunday. Conditions to remain mostly
VFR with local MVFR/IFR in +RA possible. Gusty winds up to 35 kts
also possible near any storms. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM
MST this evening FOR AZZ006.




For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.