Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 272257
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
357 PM MST SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BEGINNING SUNDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA. THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
CAUSING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR TODAY, THE GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN AND AROUND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM. WE DID RECEIVE A REPORT FROM VERNON
INDICATING ENOUGH PEA SIZED HAIL FELL FROM ONE OF THE DAYS
STRONGER STORMS TO COVER THE GROUND. MOSTLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS
OCCURRED ELSEWHERE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN YAVAPAI
COUNTY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO, AND HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THERE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GENERALLY SPEAKING, TODAY HAS BEEN A
LITTLE MORE ACTIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS.

FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TO
A MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA EACH DAY. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. ISOLD TO
SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THRU 03-04Z WITH GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR AND
SW OF A KSJN-KPAN LINE. AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...LOOK FOR INCREASING
COVERAGE OF TSRA PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASES. GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY THAN ON
SUNDAY. ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA EACH AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THOSE OBSERVED LAST WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ006.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...AT
FIRE WEATHER...AT


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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