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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 051025
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
325 AM MST THU MAR 05 2015

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES OVER
THE COMING DAYS. EXPECT WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ALONG THE WEST
COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING A COOL AND BREEZY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW GOING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA THAT IS
FORECAST TO CUT OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL BAJA BY FRIDAY
AND THEN THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT EASTWARD BY LATE
SATURDAY. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWERS OR TWO
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS LATE ON SATURDAY...MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL BE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WITH NO SHOWERS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
PRECEDE TO FLATTEN AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL TEND TO INCREASE THE WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WIND
GUSTS. THE LONG RANGE FORECASTS DIVERGE WITH ONE MODEL SHOWING A
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WEST WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER WHILE ANOTHER
MODELS INDICATED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY OVER ARIZONA
WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. FOR NOW IS WAS DECIDED TO
STAY WITH A MILD AND DRY FORECAST OUT THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS  ARE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......MS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF