Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291630
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TODAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...EXTREME NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND SOUTHERN APACHE
COUNTY. COOL DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM THE POLAR
FRONT JET WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS UTAH TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER ALONG THE UTAH BORDER REGION AND ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES TODAY. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW HAS ONE
MORE DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS
MORNING...AND THEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO HEAD NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. THIS LAST DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY SENDING A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM KIGM TO KGCN
TO K0V7 TO KFMN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY NORTHEAST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

THIS PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A DRY...COOL...AND STABLE
AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA TO REMIND US THAT FALL WEATHER IS
HERE. EXPECT COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AT SOME MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING FREEZING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MORNINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 4-8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THE LAST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES WITH WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS
LASTING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...10/6.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS FAR NRN AZ TODAY WILL BRING SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS AT 6-10 KFT
AGL. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KGCN-KOV7-KSOW THROUGH 00Z TUES...THEN CLEARING. AFTERNOON SFC WINDS
SW-W 10-20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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