Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 141617

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
917 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A period of mainly dry weather and above normal
temperatures will continue through much of the week. Some light
precipitation is possible from the Mogollon Rim northward late
Tuesday into Wednesday. A pattern change to cooler and wetter
weather will be possible by the end of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Little change in the weather from yesterday is
expected as above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue.
There will be some increasing mid and high level clouds later
today and into early tomorrow, but these will have little impact
on the sensible weather across the area. Latest model guidance is
still indicating a transition to a more active pattern with cooler
and wetter weather by the end of next week.


.PREV DISCUSSION /430 AM MST/...Expect a fairly high amplitude
ridge over the area today, bringing well above normal
temperatures to much of the area. Temperatures at the lower
elevations will be tempered somewhat by persistent inversions.

This ridge will partially break down later Monday and Tuesday as a
weak s/wv moves through the Great Basin. This wave will split and
bring some cooler mid-level air into Arizona Tuesday night and
Wednesday, which could lead to some light rain showers.

The ridge rebounds again Thursday, before breaking down and giving
way to a fast-moving and cold trough by late Friday and Saturday.
This system at the end of the week is now consistently forecast to
produce some light to moderate rain/snow shower activity and
sharply colder temperatures, the grids have been adjusted further
in this direction.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Light winds and VFR conditions are
expected for the next 24 hours. Expect increasing mid-to-upper level
cloudiness later today and especially tonight. Aviation discussion
not updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Unseasonably strong high pressure will lead to warm
daytime temperatures and dry conditions through Monday. Winds will
be generally light for most locations.

Tuesday through Thursday...A weak low pressure trough will brush the
state late Tuesday into early Wednesday with a slight chance of
light precipitation, though above normal temperatures will persist.
Dry weather anticipated again for Thursday.






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