Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301216
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
515 AM MST SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A WARMING TREND AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AND
WET WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...LASTING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA IS POISED
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA LATER THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
IS ALREADY IN PLACE...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTING MOST OF THE
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. QPF PRODUCTION SHOULD BE QUITE EFFICIENT...DUE TO MODEST
INSTABILITY...UPSLOPE FLOW AND HIGHER ANTECEDENT MOISTURE VALUES.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 7500-8000 FEET...BRIEFLY DROPPING TO
NEAR 7000 FEET IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY TO CONTINUE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BEFORE DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HIGHER HGHTS
ARRIVE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A
DEEPER AND COLDER LOW FORMING OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
BLOCKING PATTERNS AND TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND
LONGER RANGE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN VERY STABLE. WE HAVE A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM KRQE-KFLG-KPRC.
PERIODS MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED. THUNDER IS  POSSIBLE. S TO SW WINDS
GENERALLY 10-20 KTS THROUGH THE DAY DECREASING AROUND SUNSET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY WITH PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FAVORING NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARIZONA. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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