Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 122133
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
235 PM MST FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. STARTING
SATURDAY...MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING CHANCES FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MONDAY...PRIMARILY TO AREAS ABOVE 6500 FEET. STARTING TUESDAY...A
STRONGER MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SAT IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED FLAT CU ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH
ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF EVENING STORMS GOING FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...ELSEWHERE
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP IN EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TONIGHT SHOULD BRING BREEZY EAST WINDS TO GILA AND
SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY TONIGHT.

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PROGS HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BELOW
H5) SPREADING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE H5 TO CONTINUE AS WELL THOUGH AND STABLE AIR IS
SEEN OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND GCNP AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. THUS EXPECT SCATTERED DAYTIME TSTORMS PRIMARILY ABOVE 6500
FEET ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 40 AND ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY ONWARD...PROGS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY DEEP
MONSOON MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEARING 2 INCHES ARE BEING FORECAST BY SOME MODELS FOR THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN WESTERN AZ WITH VALUES DECREASING TOWARDS
THE 4 CORNERS. THE CURRENT POP FORECASTS SHOW A GRADIENT OF 30-50
PERCENT CHANCES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LINE FROM FREDONIA TO ST JOHNS
AND 15-30% FOR AREAS NORTH OF THIS LINE. STAY TUNED ON THIS ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 3Z WITH ISOLD
MVFR THEN ENDING. AFT 18Z SAT...SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 AND ISOLD STORMS ELSEWHERE.
ISOLD POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF













USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.