Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 270421
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
921 PM MST FRI SEP 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THREATS INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. STORMS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH
COUNTRY ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A LIGHT FROST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE
APPROACHING STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ITS IMPACTS TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA OVER ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL TIMING AND IMPACTS
REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THIS EVENING WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL STILL EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS BEING OBSERVED IN NAVAJO/APACHE COUNTIES
AND ALSO IN WESTERN COCONINO/YAVAPAI COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION THIS EVENING HAS BEEN WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA FROM MOHAVE COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA WHERE STRONGER WIND
SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH ARE AT PLAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
INTO COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN SPREAD EAST INTO NAVAJO/APACHE COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEVADA AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEST COMBINATION OF INS ABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR RESULTING IN SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY ACROSS
COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO GILA/NAVAJO/APACHE COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE STORM THREATS WILL INCLUDE LARGE
HAIL (GREATER THAN 1 INCH)...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. STORMS WILL BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY AT 35 TO 45
MPH...BUT TRAINING STORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS MAY LEAD TO
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WE RECOMMEND THE PUBLIC
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY AND RECONSIDER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
GILA...NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ELSEWHERE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
ARIZONA A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE EAST PACIFIC.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA WILL LOCK US IN A DRY AND COOL
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON
MONDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...WDSPRD CU/TCU/CB WITH BASES FROM
4-6KFT AGL ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA AND ISOLD +TSRA
THROUGH 09Z-11Z. AFT 11Z...EXPECT A LARGE INCREASE IN ACTIVITY WITH
WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA AND SCT +TSRA. STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE
AND DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60KTS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE A TORNADO. FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS AFT 11Z-13Z...WITH SOME
IFR/LIFR IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BEP

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.