Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 200407
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY IN APACHE COUNTRY.
EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIER SOUTHWEST PACIFIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA
COMBINED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP US IN A DOWN
TURN FOR STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY WILL BE IN APACHE COUNTY.

TUESDAY ONWARD...HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL HELP
BRING A MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. PW WILL INCREASE...BUT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LARGELY BE OFF THE SURFACE KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER QUITE DRY. WHILE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE BETTER DURING THIS PERIOD AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH BASED
CONVECTION WITH MOST PRECIPITATION EVAPORATING BEFORE IT MAKES IT
TO THE GROUND. IN ADDITION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COUPLED WITH DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/RR
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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