Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280318
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
818 PM MST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
THIS. NO FURTHER FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /326 PM MST/... STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TODAY DUE TO A TROUGH PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH HAS LED TO
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY DAYTIME WINDS. AS THIS TROUGH
SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LIKELY RETURN
ARIZONA TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN...AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PERSISTING INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES AFTER 18Z
TUES...WITH ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTHWEST AS KFGZ.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE
RETURN OF THE MONSOON FLOW AND MOISTURE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND AS FAR NORTH AS WINDOW ROCK...WITH ISOLATED
STORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE GRAND CANYON.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/KD
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...TC


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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