Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 161653
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
953 AM MST THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
THEN...AS A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY...MILD...AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ TODAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /344 AM MST/...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES 3-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS BAJA AND UP ACROSS ARIZONA ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER
FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAYS
HIGHS.

A SERIES OF GENERALLY WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE FIRST ONE WILL BE FRIDAY`S
SYSTEM...THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN
THE SOUTHWEST. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY IS NOT GOOD...AND
LONGER RANGE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED AS THERE WILL LIKELY
BE TIMING ADJUSTMENTS AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS. A
STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...IMPACTS
WITH THAT SYSTEM COULD RANGE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO NUMEROUS
LIGHT SHOWERS...MODELS OVERALL HAVE BEEN TRENDING TO A WETTER
SCENARIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO
TREND BACK TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND LOWER TO
AROUND 20 KFT MSL AFTER 06Z. SEVERAL PLANNED BURNS WILL ALSO BRING
LOCALIZED SMOKE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/TC
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.