Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 210416

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
916 PM MST WED JUL 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread showers and thunderstorms will remain in
the forecast through tomorrow. A drier westerly flow will decrease
shower and thunderstorm coverage across western Arizona Friday
into the weekend, though decent chances for thunderstorms will
remain across southern Navajo and Apache counties.


Another active monsoon day is winding down across northern Arizona
this evening. The remainder of the evening is anticipated to be
rather quiet, though widely scattered showers may continue,
especially across Apache county. Residents and visitors to lovely
northern Arizona should be prepared for another active day of
thunderstorms on Thursday.


.PREV DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...Another round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected across all of northern Arizona tomorrow,
beginning after 10AM MST. Storms will initially develop in the
higher terrain and slowly work their way to the lower elevations.
The main threat with storms tomorrow will once again be very heavy
rain due to the slow storm movement, which could lead to localized
flash flooding. The stronger storms will also be capable of
producing small hail and gusty winds.

Beginning Friday, drier air will start to move in from the west.
This will reduce storm chances across Coconino and Yavapai
Counties. For the weekend, the greatest storm chances will remain
over southern Navajo and Apache Counties where the highest
moisture remains.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Isolated storms will continue
overnight, especially southeast of a KRQE-KSOW line. Look for
sct-nmrs SHRA/TSRA to redevelop after 17Z Thursday. Brief MVFR/IFR
conditions with hail and gusty winds possible with stronger
storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...An active wet monsoon weather pattern will
continue on Thursday with drier air moving into western Arizona
on Friday. Drier air will reduce chances for showers and
thunderstorms starting on Friday afternoon.

Saturday through Monday...A drier low grade monsoon pattern will
remain in the forecast. The highest chances for showers and
storms will be across the White Mountains region.






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