Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 150307

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
807 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A mild westerly flow aloft will deliver dry
conditions, above normal temperatures and periods of cloudiness
through Wednesday. Then, a passing weather disturbance is expected
to increase wind speeds Thursday and Friday. Fair weather and near
to slightly above average temperatures are expected this weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Mainly clear skies and seasonable overnight
temperatures are in store. Yet another beautiful fall night. No
need for an update.

Wednesday...Well above average temperatures and dry conditions
will continue as westerly flow aloft persists over Arizona.

Thursday and Friday...Pressure gradients tighten over northern
Arizona as a short wave trough moves toward Arizona from the
Pacific Northwest. Enhanced southwesterly winds are forecast both
days, with the strongest winds at 700 mb indicated by the NAEFS
mean mid-day Friday over far northeastern Arizona. Even in the
ensemble mean, speeds to 50 kts are forecast at 700 mb. This is
near the 99th percentile for mid-November. Strong winds should
continue downwind of high terrain features overnight from Thursday
into Friday. Chances for light precipitation exist on Friday
morning, mainly near and north of Interstate 40. This is in the
pre-frontal air mass, so snow levels will be above 9000 feet.

Saturday and Sunday...A cold frontal passage from the north on
Friday night will knock temperatures down somewhat, as well as
usher in some very dry air. High temperatures Saturday will be
near average for mid-November, warming to slightly above average
Sunday. Low temperatures near average are forecast both Saturday
and Sunday mornings as well, which given the warm lows we`ve been
observing this month will be quite noticeable. Many areas which
have not observed a freeze for some time will do so, especially
along and northeast of the Mogollon Rim.

Monday and Tuesday...A ridge will try to redevelop over the
southwestern states during this time period, but some weak
disturbances may move through the general westerly flow. Most
notably, a short wave trough in the ensemble mean on Monday could
bring a slight chance of showers. Above average temperatures are


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Light east to southeast winds may
reduce visibility into the MVFR or even IFR category overnight at
KGCN, due to smoke. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
persist over the next 24 hours. Southwest winds 10-20 knots
Wednesday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and above average temperatures will
continue for the next couple of days. Modest southwesterly afternoon
breezes on Wednesday will give way to stronger southwest winds on
Thursday, especially over the Coconino and Kaibab plateaus.

Friday through Sunday...Temperatures will drop to near average from
Friday into Saturday behind a cold front. Strong west-southwest
winds are forecast for Friday, especially northeast of the Mogollon
Rim. Very light precipitation amounts are possible Friday morning,
mainly north of Interstate 40. Temperatures begin to warm again on
Sunday, with very dry air expected over the weekend.






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