Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 200449

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
949 PM MST Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy weather with seasonable temperatures
will continue through Wednesday. Windy and cooler conditions are
expected from Thursday through the weekend, with a slight chance
of showers at times.


.DISCUSSION...Wind speeds have significantly decreased across
northern Arizona this evening. Breezy, downslope winds will
likely continue at locations immediately to the northeast of
higher terrain. The current forecast is on track and no updates
are anticipated at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION /332 PM MST/...A trough across the western U.S.
will continue to deepen and dig southward over the next few days.
Southwest winds on Wednesday will again be quite breezy like
today. A further uptick in winds looks likely for Thursday, and a
wind advisory may well be needed to account for the gusty winds
across for portions of northern Arizona. As the trough nears and
pushes across the state, a chance for showers will develop late
Thursday and into Friday, with much cooler daytime temperatures
developing for Friday and the weekend. In addition, many locations
above 6500 may experience the first significant freeze of the
season on Saturday/Sunday mornings. Climatologically, this is
about right on time for when we normally experience this.


.AVIATION...For the 06z package...Expect VFR conditions for the
next 24 hours. Increasing south to southwest winds are forecast
after 16Z, becoming 10-20 kts with gusts from 20-30 kts. The
strongest winds will occur along and north of the Mogollon rim.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A broad area of low pressure will sit over the
western United States for several days. The main impact will be
increasing southwest winds each afternoon, strongest on Thursday.
Look for a slight decrease in speeds for Friday.

Moisture is expected to increase across northern Arizona on Thursday
and Friday leading to a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
A cold front should cross the area early Saturday, with much drier
and cooler air behind the front, lasting through early next week.






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