Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251637
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM DUE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO SKY COVER WHERE MADE FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST CAUSING DECREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION /328 AM MST/...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR THIS
PERIOD. THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME
AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND FLATTENED EVEN FARTHER...IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND INCREASE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ARIZONA TO PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY...AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ARIZONA STAYS ABOUT THE
SAME AS SATURDAY...WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING
BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TIMING
ISSUES WITH THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...THE OPERATIONAL GFS
AND THE ECMWF HAVE COME CLOSER IN AGREEMENT ON THEIR TIME OF ARRIVAL
OF THE TROUGH...THE GFS HOWEVER IS STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER THE ECMWF.
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST.
MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCING AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS FROM 6500 TO
7500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC WINDS
VARIABLE TO 10KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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