Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271132
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
435 AM MST THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
FRIDAY....ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME DRYING WILL DEVELOP
TO THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BEFORE GRADUALLY COOLING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RE-CIRCULATE UNDER A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW WILL BECOME RATHER WEAK
AND UNORGANIZED DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL CHANGE THE CHARACTER
OF STORM ACTIVITY...FROM BEING SOMEWHAT DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN...TO SLOW
MOVING TERRAIN-BASED STORMS. BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...A
DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH THE RIDGE
EAST OF OUR STATE. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY DRY OUT THE WESTERN
ZONES...BUT THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WILL HAVE AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THIS DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND
EJECTING S/WVS THAT WILL INCREASE SHEAR AND DYNAMIC FORCING. OUR
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE GRADUALLY
COOLING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY 17Z. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GENERALLY BE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
IFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC...GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE STRONGEST STORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND 02Z
FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...RR


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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