Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 161050
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
350 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
STORM. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE THIS
EVENING AND EXIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND SNOW...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 5500 FEET. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. AS WE HEAD INTO LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. CONDITIONS WILL TURN COLDER AND A GENERAL
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM MID-DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN
5000 AND 6000 FEET DURING THE BULK OF THE EVENT.

MODEL QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.15"-0.40" IN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS & ECMWF WITH NAM VALUES HIGHER AS TYPICALLY SEEN
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE REDUCED SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY IN THE
FORECAST...AND WE`LL SEE HOW MODEL AND OBSERVED TRENDS DEVELOP
TODAY.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING DRY AND WARMER...AND EXTENDED RANGE MODEL HAVE
ALSO TRENDED DRIER FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 18 OURS...THEN LOWERING
CIGS AND VSBYS TO MIXED MVFR AND IFR AS AN UPPER LEVEL WX SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST OF A
KPGA- KPAN LINE THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...THEN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA
AFT THAT TIME. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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