Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240433
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 PM MST SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY.
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL INCREASE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE 00Z KFGZ SOUNDING SHOWED A MOIST LAYER BELOW A
STRONG INVERSION AT AROUND 630 MB/13000 FEET MSL. THIS ALLOWED
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ELEVATED INVERSION PREVENTED ANY SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST EARLIER THIS EVENING TO REMOVE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO STABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /303 PM MST/...
ON SUNDAY...RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM MID LEVEL
AIR WILL LARGELY INHIBIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HURRICANE MARIE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO INSTIGATE A SURGE OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE. THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT
WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA
LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS GOOD MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING. IN
ADDITION...GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS INDICATE THAT TIGHTENING
GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO 25
TO 35 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. SO...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR TO PRODUCE ROTATING SUPERCELLS.

THURSDAY ONWARD...LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE LEADING TO DRYING
CONDITIONS...WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...AND DECREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...FEW-SCT120 MAINLY NORTH OF A KP23-KSJN LINE
TONIGHT. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR PERIOD.
WITH AN ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE IN EASTERN AZ 18Z-01Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/RR
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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