Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 211647

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
947 AM MST Fri Apr 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and warm conditions through the weekend.
High pressure will bring light winds through Saturday. Windy
conditions will return for the afternoons from Sunday through
Tuesday as two troughs brush Arizona.


.DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement through Tuesday
morning. In the short term a ridge of high pressure will build
across the desert southwest through Saturday evening. Look for
dry and warm conditions across our area, with light north
northeast winds today and then very little wind Saturday.

On Sunday, we return to west southwest flow aloft, and have a
disturbance cross the Great Basin. Expect gusty SW surface winds
for the afternoon, sustained at 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Fastest speeds are expected along and north of the Mogollon Rim
and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for most of this area Sunday
afternoon. Max temperatures to be around 10 degrees above normal
for the weekend.

Monday and Tuesday. Westerly flow aloft will keep dry and warm
weather in the forecast through Tuesday. Afternoon winds to
persist, from the W-SW with gusts from 25 to 40 mph, the fastest
gusts across Navajo and Apache counties.

Tuesday night through Thursday. Operational model disagreement is
increasing for this time frame. The large picture has a broad
trough of low pressure moving west to east through the Great
Basin. The Canadian, ECMWF and ensemble GFS models have
precipitation across the northeast corner of AZ as early Tuesday
night, the operational GFS late Wednesday. The current broad brush
chances for showers for days 5-7 look good for now, we will refine
the timing as new data arrives. High and low temps will be on a
cooling trend, reaching seasonal normals on Thursday.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...VFR conditions are forecast over
the next 24 hours. Winds generally in the 5-15 kt range with
variable direction. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect light northerly winds at most locations
today. High pressure will lead to well above normal temperatures,
low humidities and light winds on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...On Sunday, a passing trough will likely
cause strong southwest winds to combine with low humidities at most
locations along and north of the Mogollon Rim. A Fire Weather Watch
has been issued from noon to 7 pm Sunday. Breezy southwest winds and
dry conditions continue Monday and Tuesday.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
FOR AZZ104-106-107-109-111>116-138>140.




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