Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 231202

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
500 AM MST FRI SEP 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect cooler and drier conditions for most of area
today, behind a cold front that moved through overnight. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue near the New Mexico border, before the
front moves out of the state this evening. Dry and slightly warmer
conditions are anticipated for the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...A cold front is currently located between Flagstaff
and Payson, extending northeast to the Four Corners. This front is
interacting with remaining moisture over the area and is producing
isolated showers and thunderstorms as it moves eastward. The front
will slow down a bit today and may become more active near the New
Mexico border as surface heating improves later today. Much colder
and drier air trails the front, with gusty southwest winds
continuing ahead of the front.

This system will exit the area to the east by this evening and a
cold night is expected as winds decrease in the drier airmass.

Expect heights to rebound over the weekend, although northeast
gradients will develop, keeping areas along and northeast of the
Mogollon Rim a bit cool.

Models advertise some additional energy to move south around the
building Pacific ridge next week. This may consolidate into a closed
low, which might retrograde westward under the ridge. This pattern
will slow down any warming trend and may bring moisture back into
the area from the east and southeast. This remains to be seen and is
not agreed upon by all models. We have taken a compromise approach
and will wait and see what the next few models runs look like.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...A band of showers and
thunderstorms will sweep across northeast Arizona through the
morning hours, moving into New Mexico during the afternoon. Within
the band, look for ceilings at or below 3000 ft AGL with MVFR to IFR
conditions. Southerly winds of 20-30 kts along and ahead of this
band. Elsewhere, VFR conditions. General VFR conditions for all of
northern Arizona from late this afternoon onward. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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