Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 151057

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
357 AM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Areas of rain and snow will continue early today,
though showers will gradually decrease in coverage and intensity
from west to east. Drier and warmer conditions are expected to
develop Friday and into the weekend.


The bulk of precipitation associated with our current storm system
is pushing southeast this morning, with most showers now across
southern Apache County and just widely scattered showers
elsewhere. The main lingering threat for snowfall accumulation is
primarily across the White Mountains above 7500 for the next
several hours, with generally dusting amounts possible in other

A break in the weather is expected Friday into the
weekend, with warming daytime temps anticipated. Winds will turn
southwest and gusty by Sunday afternoon. There are indications in
the forecast models for another storm system moving toward the
state from the north early next week, but details are sketchy at
this point as a consensus in the model runs is not yet evident.


.AVIATION...For the 12z Package...A weather disturbance continues
to move across Arizona this morning. Expect areas of MVFR/IFR
conditions in rain and snow showers through 15Z. Showers will
decrease from west to east through the early morning. Expect areas
of FG and BR to develop as precip clears through the early
morning. MVFR remain ceilings possible through most of the day
Thursday as low level moisture hangs around. Southwest winds
generally at 5-15 kts through Thursday turning north to northeast
Thursday evening. Aviation discussion not updated for amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Weakening low pressure will move east out of
Arizona by early Thursday morning. Rain and snow showers will
clear west to east Thursday with most before places dry by
Thursday afternoon. For Friday through Saturday, a return to fair
weather with temperatures around or just above normal. On Sunday,
gusty southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 to 35 mph will
develop by the afternoon ahead of the next low pressure system.

Monday through Wednesday...A trough of low pressure approaching
from the Great Basin will bring very strong southwest winds for
Monday. Showers should return for Monday as well as very much
colder temperatures Monday and Tuesday.






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