Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 221006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
306 AM MST MON AUG 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will remain in place with the
potential for shower and thunderstorm activity continuing through
the coming week.


.DISCUSSION...Moisture will remain in place across northern
Arizona today and Tuesday. In addition, a shortwave trough and
associated upper level jet stream maximum will induce weak upward
motion from late this afternoon through Tuesday. In response, showers
and storms will be most numerous across northwest Arizona this
afternoon and evening shifting eastward with the shortwave overnight
and on Tuesday. Due to the shortwave dynamics shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to continue through the
overnight hours. Models show the most unstable air over northwest
Arizona this afternoon shifting eastward with the shortwave on
Tuesday. Temperatures will remain on the cool side aloft so an
isolated storm or two could produce 1.0 inch diameter hail where the
most unstable conditions are located.

From Wednesday onward...behind the Monday/Tuesday system some
drying will push into Arizona with a decrease in storm activity.
Beyond Wednesday, most models show moisture pushing back
northward across Arizona in conjucntion with the circulation
around low-level high pressure over southern Arizona. So, expect
at least low-grade monsoon activity through the weeks end. Storms
look to be most numerous over and north of the Mogollon Rim
through this period.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...ISOLD -SHRA will continue over
northern Arizona through 17Z. After 17Z...SCT -SHRA/-TSRA will
develop, most numerous over the higher terrain. MVFR VSBYs and
erratic winds with gusts between 20 to 30 knots will be possible in
the vicinity of stronger storms. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.






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