Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 152155

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
255 PM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An approaching cold front will bring increased
southwesterly winds Thursday and Friday. Behind the front, the
coldest low temperatures of the weekend are expected this
weekend. Above average temperatures return late in the weekend and
into next week.


.DISCUSSION...The main story over the next few days will be an
approaching cold front which will bring increased southwesterly
winds, a chance of light precipitation, and cooler temperatures
to the region. Ahead of the front, southwesterly winds will
increase Thursday and Friday with the strongest winds over the
higher terrain Friday. Wind advisories may be necessary for areas
along and north of the Mogollon Rim. There is a chance of light
precipitation with the front late Thursday into early Friday with
areas north of I-40 most likely to see any precipitation.

Behind the front, cooler and much drier air will filter into the
region with the coldest lows of the season likely this weekend.
Near normal high temperatures Saturday will rebound to above
normal values by early next week. Model guidance continues to
advertise the potential for another disturbance to move near the
area in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe, but confidence remains low
on the exact track of this feature and any impacts on northern


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions are forecast under
scattered/broken mid to high clouds over the next 24 hours. SW sfc
winds of 10-20 kt diminishing after 01Z this evening. Stronger winds
are anticipated after 18z Thu with SW sfc winds 15-20 kt and gusts
25-30 kt. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Southwesterly afternoon breezes will increase over
the next two days with the strongest winds occurring Friday,
greatest along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Temperatures will cool
Friday to near normal values. Very light precipitation amounts are
possible Thursday night and Friday morning, mainly along and north
of Interstate 40.

Saturday through Monday...Behind the front, near normal temperatures
will continue on Saturday before returning to above normal values
late in the weekend and into early next week. Otherwise, dry air and
weaker winds can be expected through the period.






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