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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 111039
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 AM MST FRI APR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
CROSSES THE REGION. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY SPREADING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS AND ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

FOR SATURDAY...THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA. THE MAIN
DYNAMICS...MOISTURE...AND COOL AIR ALOFT WITH THIS RELATIVELY WEAK
AND WARM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES STILL INDICATE THAT
THERE COULD BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN MODELS ARE
SHOWING...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO GENERATE SLIGHTLY MORE
WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME INCORPORATING ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY WILL COOL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH BREEZY TO
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DAY OF LIGHTER WINDS ON
MONDAY OR TUESDAY...LIKELY TURNING MORE GUSTY MID TO LATE-WEEK AS
TROUGHING DEVELOPS AGAIN OVER THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS...WITH PATCHY MIDDLE CLOUD COVER BY THIS EVENING. SW
WINDS 10TO20G25KTS EXPECTED FROM 17Z-01Z TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY...BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS AGAIN
TODAY...ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE STATE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
A FEW HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
EAST OF FLAGSTAFF AND TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST OR THE
NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES OF COOLING
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF FLAGSTAFF. LIGHTER WINDS WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE AND WARMING TREND REDEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC..........DJO
AVIATION........PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER....PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF