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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231715
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1015 AM MST MON FEB 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM PAYSON TO WINDOW ROCK
TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONGER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA FROM THIS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. THE LOWEST REPORTED SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN IN
THE PAGE AREA WHERE SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED BELOW 4000 FEET. ALONG
THE CENTRAL RIM...SNOW LEVELS ARE A BIT HIGHER...WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW GENERALLY ABOVE 6500 FEET.

A COMBINATION OF FRONTAL FORCING...A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS CAUSING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. SO
FAR...THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
FLAGSTAFF. THE REGION OF HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE STATE.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL TRACK OVERHEAD
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS FURTHER AND CAUSING CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

THERE ARE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND SNOW ADVISORIES OUT FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN AZ ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH 5 PM
TODAY AS PROGS HAVE THE BULK OF PRECIP FALLING BY THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /500 AM MST/...
CLEARING TO COMMENCE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
FAIR WEATHER FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PROGS ARE COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM HERE THIS WEEKEND. A
COLD AND BROAD TROUGH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY
SETTING UP A VERY MOIST WSW FLOW INTO ARIZONA. SHOULD THE PROGS
VERIFY...WE WOULD SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH SNOW LEVELS FROM 5000 FEET ALONG THE UTAH
BORDER TO 6500-7500 FEET ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WDSPRD MVFR/IFR AND SCT
LIFR IN RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MOST IMPACTED
AREA WILL MAINLY BE WEST OF A LINE FROM KPAN TO THE FOUR CORNERS.
SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM 4KFT MSL TO THE NORTH AND 8KFT MSL NEAR THE
WHITE MTNS. MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ004-
006-007-010-015-016-039.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AZZ005-009.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF