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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031033
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS..SKIES WILL CLEAR TODAY AFTER A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES AND
SNOW FLURRIES. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PASSING OVER
ARIZONA THIS MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT ECHOES NOTED ON
RADAR INDICATING A FEW SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT NO MEASURABLE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST TODAY WITH CLEARING SKIES IN THE
SUBSIDENT AIR BEHIND IT.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST FROM LATER TODAY
UNTIL THURSDAY PROMOTING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. ONLY ONE MORE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY THE FOUR
CORNERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF ANY POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANCE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
FOR NOW...NUMERICAL MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...GIVEN ITS TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN PRIOR
TO ARRIVING IN NORTHERN AZ...IT WILL LIKELY FEATURE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION IF ANY...AND THE MAIN IMPACT COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT
COOL-DOWN ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL
PRODUCE SOME LOW STRATUS AROUND THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME TOPS OBSCD
MAINLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DJO
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF