Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
FXUS64 KMAF 251108
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
508 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014
See aviation discussion below.
VFR conditions with an abundance of high clouds are expected the
next 24 hours. Light winds early this morning will generally
become south at 10 to 20 mph through early this evening.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CST Thursday...skies are clear across
the CWA. Water vapor imagery is indc a mid/upper system moving
through the Wasatch Range in Utah with a trof stretching
Southwest flow sfc/aloft will bring above normal temps to the CWA
today and Friday. High clouds associated with the trof will temper
the high temps a bit...even with the downslope flow. It looks like
it will be windy today across the Guadalupe Mtns...but latest
thinking is that it should remain below warning criteria. This
will continue to be monitored.
The mid/upper trof weakens and splits as it moves east with the
southern portion struggling to move across the Southern Plains
this weekend. This trof will drag a cold front thru the CWA...with
the models waffling on how much cold air will drop this far south
and how much moisture there will be to work with. With the model
differences have went with slight chc pops in southeast New Mexico
Friday...with slight chances slowly moving south and east through
Saturday night. Temperature profiles keep the precip liquid through
Friday evening...then mixing or changing to snow late Friday night
and Saturday. With slight chc pops and light showers at most it
does not look like there will be any significant winter weather.
Temps will be below normal Saturday...warming to near normal on
Sunday and Monday.
On Tuesday a shortwave diving south out of the Northwest
Territories of Canada will move into the Desert Southwest with a
cold front moving through the CWA. This system will slowly lift
ENE into the Northern TX Panhandle by late Thursday. The models
have pulled back on the amount of cold air that will move into the
CWA. Whereas temps will be well below normal models are not nearly
as cold as they have been showing the past several days. It will
be interesting to see what future model runs show. The models are
also waffling on how much...if any precipitation will occur with
this system. For now the forecast will show slight chance pops for
the end of 2014.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 62 37 62 28 / 0 0 10 20
BIG SPRING TX 63 40 67 32 / 0 0 10 20
CARLSBAD NM 69 34 59 29 / 0 0 20 20
DRYDEN TX 61 36 66 39 / 0 0 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 71 43 67 34 / 0 0 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 59 38 50 28 / 0 0 20 20
HOBBS NM 63 32 57 26 / 0 0 10 20
MARFA TX 63 30 61 29 / 0 0 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 63 35 66 27 / 0 0 10 20
ODESSA TX 63 39 63 29 / 0 0 10 20
WINK TX 66 34 67 31 / 0 0 10 20
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