Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 200929
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
429 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures are expected the next 7 days as an
upper level ridge builds across New Mexico and west Texas through
Tuesday and then shifts northwestward toward the 4 corners region
next Wednesday through Friday. At the surface a lee trough is
forecast to remain in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New
Mexico through early next week. Very intense heating along the
surface trough with upslope flow in the mountains combined with
weak trapped mid level moisture underneath the upper high should
generate mainly afternoon and evening isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast
New Mexico Plains, upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall today
and this evening when moisture will be greatest.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to shift toward
the four corners region. Precipitation chances will decrease as
the upper ridge takes the mid level moisture northwestward away
from the forecast area. Went with the warmer ECMWF temperatures
through the extended based on 850 millibar temperature forecast
consistency.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              98  72  98  74  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               102  68 101  69  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                 102  74 102  75  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          100  73 100  73  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          97  67  95  69  /  30  30  20  20
HOBBS NM                   97  67  99  69  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   94  63  93  62  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  74  99  75  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                   102  75 102  75  /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12





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