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000
FXUS64 KMAF 041133
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
533 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...
One more day of pleasant weather before much colder temperatures
and the potential for freezing and frozen precipitation arrives
across a significant portion of west Texas and southeast New
Mexico Thursday through Saturday. A strong cold front is currently
across the northern Texas Panhandle. This front is forecast to
remain north of the forecast area through late this afternoon.
Much above normal temperatures with dry and breezy to windy
conditions are expected. Will continue the high wind warning
through early this evening for the Guadalupe Mountains due to 700
millibar winds forecast to remain in the 40 to 50 knot range out
of the west. The cold front is expected to plunge south tonight
as far south as the Pecos River. Will continue the slight chance
of rain late tonight across the eastern Permian Basin due to
frontal passage. The rain may mix with or change to freezing
rain across the northeast Permian basin in the colder air.

Much colder air will funnel southwestward Thursday toward the
mountains. Prefer the coldest ECMWF model due to the magnitude
of the colder air upstream across the central Rockies and Plains.
Temperatures will basically be falling through the day across
areas mainly north of the Pecos River. In the meantime large
scale forcing and warm advection will increase dramatically ahead
of an approaching upper level trough and above the surface cold
dome. Went with likely pops for rain...freezing rain...sleet
across the northern and central Permian Basin including the
eastern half of Lea county New Mexico Thursday. All model
soundings are indicating a persistent and significant layer of
warm air aloft just above the surface to 750 millibars during
this time period.

The shallow cold air will continue to spill south Thursday night
and forcing and overrunning will continue as the upper level storm
system finally approaches. Freezing rain, sleet and even some
light snow is expected across much of the Permian Basin, southeast
New Mexico Plains and the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. Present
indications are that ice accumulation will be up to a quarter inch
Thursday through Thursday night and that would likely result in
hazardous driving conditions. Later shifts will need to monitor
for the potential issuance of a winter weather advisory for as
early as Thursday and continuing into Thursday night.

By Friday the precipitation is expected to come to an end as the
upper level trough weakens and moves east. The cold air will
continue to ooze south with high temperatures likely remaining
at or below freezing under cloudy skies across the northern and
central Permian Basin with 40s and 50s south of the Pecos river to
the Rio Grande River. A reinforcing shot of even colder air is
expected Saturday under cloudy skies with high temperatures
remaining in the 20s and 30s across much of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico. The exception will be the 40s along the Rio
Grande River and the Van Horn Highway 54 corridor. In addition
patchy freezing drizzle will be possible Saturday and Saturday
night across the Permian Basin as overrunning commences again
ahead of the next upper level trough approaching from the Rockies.

This next upper trough will amplify as it drops southeastward over
the central/ southern Rockies Saturday night with the initial
shortwave trough ejecting eastward from it resulting in the base
of the ua trough skirting northern fringes of the forecast area
Sunday. This will allow the cold airmass over the region to be
dislodged somewhat as westerly downslope winds develop to the east
of the higher terrain. Temperatures will warm to the 50s and 60s
along and west of the Pecos River, but will remain in the 40s
along and to the east. However, cold temperatures will return to
the region Monday as another arctic airmass drops south through
the region in the wake of this ua trough. Temperatures could be
even colder than the first airmass, with an outside shot at light
wintry precipitation occurring Monday night through Wednesday as
additional shortwave troughs reamplify the upper pattern over the
central Conus. For now, have gone with the colder temperatures,
but left any mention of precipitation out for Monday through
Wednesday next week. If the colder solutions in the models verify,
some record cold temperatures could occur these days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Ambient dry conditions will prevail again today across the region,
however minimum afternoon RHs will not be quite as low as yesterday
since high temperatures will be a few degrees cooler.  Dry fuels and
westerly winds of 15 to 25 mph sustained, and gusts of 25 to 35 mph
in some areas, will result in elevated fire weather conditions, but
not enough for critical conditions.  Recovery tonight will be good
or better areawide.  Another arctic airmass will move southwestward
into the region Thursday morning.  Therefore, cooler temperatures
are expected over all but the Presidio Valley and Big Bend region.
Gusty southwest winds will prevail over the Presidio Valley and Big
Bend region Thursday afternoon, but RHs areawide should stay above
25 percent during the afternoon.  The colder air will push into
Mexico by Friday morning with good to excellent recovery areawide.
There will be a chance of precipitation Thursday and Thursday night,
some of which will be freezing rain, sleet or snow.  Much below
normal temperatures will persist through the weekend with more cold
air expected to move into the area next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail areawide as high clouds continue to
spread northeastward over the region. Gusty west southwest winds
will affect all TAF sites this afternoon with the strongest winds
around 25kt sustained at KCNM and KHOB. Clouds will thicken late
this afternoon and tonight, but remain solidly in the VFR
category.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  38  32  24  /   0  20  60  60
BIG SPRING TX              78  34  32  24  /   0  20  60  70
CARLSBAD NM                76  52  49  31  /   0  10  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  83  56  62  41  /   0  10  20  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  51  47  32  /   0  10  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  48  43  31  /   0  10  60  50
HOBBS NM                   72  44  35  24  /   0  10  60  60
MARFA TX                   72  46  60  39  /   0  10  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    77  35  35  25  /   0  20  60  60
ODESSA TX                  78  43  34  25  /   0  20  60  60
WINK TX                    79  50  41  30  /   0  10  50  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

67/12