291
FXUS64 KMAF 262315
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
615 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 611 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (20-70%) continue for areas
  west of the Pecos River each day. Locally heavy rainfall and
  flash flooding will continue to be the main threat.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) return to the Permian
  Basin/Lower Trans-Pecos early next week.

- Temperatures remain near normal each day and night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

A similar weather pattern is in store throughout the short term
period. Showers and thunderstorms are forecasted to continue each
afternoon into the evening hours across the western zones of the
forecast area. This is due to a similar synoptic pattern from
previous days as an upper-level ridge sits over the eastern half
of the US, while shortwave troughs over the western half of the
US. Precipitable Water (PWAT) values continue to reach near the
climatological daily maximum indicating heavy rainfall is going to
be prevalent. Guidance also has these showers and storms training
in certain locations near the higher terrain. Given this
combination plus the ground being saturated, especially across the
western half of the forecast area, a Flood Watch has been
extended through Friday night for these areas. More widespread
coverage of precipitation is expected to be confined further to
the west as a weak mid-level ridge builds overhead Friday
afternoon. High temperatures tomorrow will remain in the mid 80s
to lower 90s across southeast New Mexico and the northwestern
Permian Basin, while areas across the central/eastern Permian
Basin into Stockton Plateau are forecasted to be in the mid 90s.
Friday night lows are anticipated to remain near to slightly above
normal for this time of year regionwide.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

The extended forecast is about as climatological as it can get.
High pressure off to our east slowly builds back west over the
next few days and ultimately gets centered over the Four Corners
region of the western U.S. The high never gets settled over our
area enough to exert strong subsidence so temperatures will mostly
remain in the 90s with some 80s in the mountains. Moisture gets
pulled northward and continues the threat of afternoon showers
west of the Pecos River with isolated flash flooding a
possibility, especially in the mountains and at low water
crossings on area roads. Models show an upper disturbance moving
into West Texas and eastern New Mexico early next week increasing
rain chances for the Permian Basin.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through this
evening across portions of the area. Brief VCTS and -SHRA are
possible at both MAF and HOB over the next hour or two. All
activity will quickly weaken near and after sunset. VFR conditions
and southeast winds are expected overnight. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected once again. That said, the overall
threat is lower than previous days. Westernmost terminals would be
the focus for any potential impacts. This will be monitored for
potential inclusion in later TAF issuances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  96  74  97 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 69  89  69  93 /  30  40  20  20
Dryden                   73  97  74  97 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            71  93  71  94 /  10  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass           65  81  66  85 /  40  50  20  30
Hobbs                    68  90  70  92 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                    64  83  64  85 /  40  60  10  60
Midland Intl Airport     73  95  73  96 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                   72  93  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                     71  93  72  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through late Friday night for Chinati Mountains-
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for Loving.

     Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through late Friday night for
     Presidio Valley.

NM...Flood Watch through Friday evening for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea-Northern
     Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...91