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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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000 FXUS64 KMAF 200929 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 429 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014 .DISCUSSION... Above normal temperatures are expected the next 7 days as an upper level ridge builds across New Mexico and west Texas through Tuesday and then shifts northwestward toward the 4 corners region next Wednesday through Friday. At the surface a lee trough is forecast to remain in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico through early next week. Very intense heating along the surface trough with upslope flow in the mountains combined with weak trapped mid level moisture underneath the upper high should generate mainly afternoon and evening isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains, upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall today and this evening when moisture will be greatest. Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to shift toward the four corners region. Precipitation chances will decrease as the upper ridge takes the mid level moisture northwestward away from the forecast area. Went with the warmer ECMWF temperatures through the extended based on 850 millibar temperature forecast consistency. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ANDREWS TX 100 73 99 73 / 10 10 10 10 BIG SPRING TX 98 72 98 74 / 10 10 0 0 CARLSBAD NM 102 68 101 69 / 20 20 20 20 DRYDEN TX 102 74 102 75 / 10 10 0 0 FORT STOCKTON TX 100 73 100 73 / 20 20 10 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 97 67 95 69 / 30 30 20 20 HOBBS NM 97 67 99 69 / 20 20 10 10 MARFA TX 94 63 93 62 / 30 30 20 20 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 99 73 99 72 / 10 10 10 10 ODESSA TX 99 74 99 75 / 20 20 10 10 WINK TX 102 75 102 75 / 20 20 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 67/12
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