Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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921
FXUS64 KMAF 171716
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1116 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will last through tonight, and during the day
tomorrow.  Gusty southwest winds will diminish after 18/00Z, but
pick up behind a cold front in the morning.  Sustained northerly
winds of 20-25kt could occur for an hour or two, but it will remain
windy through out the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/

As of 3:30 AM CST Friday...the operative three-letter word for
the next 7-10 days is...DRY!

Satl imagery is indc dry mid/upper levels with quasi-zonal flow.
High resolution models such as the HRRR and RAP13 for the most
part keep low clouds/fog out of the CWA. However...there could be
a "sunrise surprise" with a brief period of low clouds. For
now will leave it out of the fcst since the impact will be
minimal.

A combination of zonal flow...thermal ridge...and downslope low
level flow will bring record high temps to the area today. The
forecast high of 89 for MAF blows the old record of 84 out of the
water (pun intended). An mid/upper trof will pass across the
Plains tonight with a dry cold front moving thru the CWA late
Friday night/Saturday morning. Winds will be gusty ahead of the
front in the Guadalupe Mtns this aftn with a mountain wave
signature indc...however winds look to remain below high wind
criteria. It will be much cooler on Saturday (a little below
normal...normal for MAF is 64) with gusty winds. Winds look to
remain below Advisory/Warning criteria.

Ridging is fcst to build next week from Baja California NNE into
the Intermountain West with a trof into the Gulf Coast. This will
result in a dry north to northwest flow with occasional dry cold
fronts clipping the CWA. In general temps will range from near
normal to above normal with the coolest days next week
Tuesday/Wednesday.

The operational 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM (Canadian) models keeps West
Texas/Southeast New Mexico dry for the next 10 days. The 00Z GFS
ensembles are indicating dry weather right thru the end of
November.

Strobin

FIRE WEATHER...Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are
possible today, particularly across portions of the Guadalupe
Mountains and Southeast New Mexico due to warm, dry and breezy
conditions. Red Flag conditions look to be isolated and brief
across these areas. In addition, fuel moisture remains fairly high
at this time so decided to forego the Red Flag Warning and
instead issue a Fire Danger Statement. A strong cold front will
move through the region Saturday with cooler temperatures and
improving relative humidity expected.

CLIMATE...Record high temperatures are expected today.

Location     Fcst     Old Record     Year
--------     ----     ----------     ----
MAF           89          84         1933/1981
Wink          91          84         1948/1966
Fort Stockton 92          88         1981
Big Spring    89          82         1981
Hobbs         85          85         1981
Carlsbad      87          81         1948/1999/2016

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  53  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       87  53  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         90  58  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  92  55  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 80  51  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          85  50  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          84  45  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           89  54  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         89  54  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           91  52  64  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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