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000
FXUS64 KMAF 121311
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
811 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to allow the Wind Advisory to expire.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

3 MB/hr surface pressure rises behind a strong cold front are
shifting south of the Rio Grande this morning.  Gusty northerly
winds are also shifting south as the surface pressure gradient
continues to ease over the area.  Therefore, will allow the Wind
Advisory over southwest Texas to expire at 12/13Z.  The surface
pressure gradient is still tight enough for high winds through
Guadalupe Pass though, so the High Wind Warning will continue in the
Guadalupe Mountains until 12/18Z.  Blowing dust will continue to
settle as surface winds subside.  Will send an update shortly to
accommodate these changes.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2014/

UPDATE...

Issued update to allow the Wind Advisory for the Permian Basin,
Western Low Rolling Plains, and southeast New Mexico to expire.

DISCUSSION...

Winds behind the cold front have weakened as the surface pressure
gradient weakens across the Permian Basin, Western Low Rolling
Plains, and the southeast New Mexico plains.  For this reason, the
Wind Advisory for these areas is being allowed to expire.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, winds behind the cold front are very strong and gusty.
Winds are strong enough for advisory criteria to be met so a Wind
Advisory is in effect for the area. Winds are reaching high wind
criteria in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is in
effect through this morning. High temperatures today will be around
30 degrees colder than those yesterday as the surface high is near
the area.

Temperatures will begin to warm up on Thursday as slight ridging
develops over the area behind the upper trough that brought the cold
front through the area. An upper level low will approach the region
on Friday with a lee surface trough developing across the area.
Surface winds will increase out of the west as a response to this
surface trough which will contribute to downslope warming and above
normal temperatures for Friday.  This upper low may produce some
rain as it passes overhead but it appears at this time that the rain
will remain north of the CWA.  A brief cold front will move through
the area behind the upper low but should not have much effect on
temperatures. Another upper low/trough will come right on the heals
of the previous one on Saturday with the surface trough redeveloping
in advance of the upper trough.  This will cause temperatures for
Saturday to be similar to those on Friday.  The upper trough will
dig southward into Mexico on Sunday as it moves over the region.
The GFS and ECMWF differ in regards to how far south the upper
trough digs with the ECMWF bringing it further south than the GFS.
A cold front along with precipitation is expected on Sunday with
this upper trough.  The discrepancy between the models is causing
the models to not be in agreement on the timing or placement of the
precipitation.  After this system passes, a gradual warm up is
expected into the middle part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  31  63  40  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              57  33  65  41  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                56  29  66  39  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  63  42  63  43  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  38  67  45  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  32  61  42  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   55  29  62  37  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   51  25  61  32  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  32  64  41  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  32  64  41  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  33  67  40  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Noon MDT today FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Noon MDT today FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$