Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

866
FXUS64 KMAF 191050
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
450 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Current water vapor imagery indicates a trough across the western
CONUS, and a dome of high pressure over the southeast, resulting
in continued southwesterly flow aloft over the region. This
southwesterly flow aloft is maintaining a conveyor of subtropical
moisture, and weak disturbances in this flow could provide enough
lift to generate showers and thunderstorms across portions of the
area today into tonight.

After a foggy start for some this morning, downslope flow will
result in temperatures this afternoon in the 70s and 80s for most
locations. High resolution guidance suggests the development of
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the higher terrain to
the southwest this afternoon, though activity should gradually
weaken as it moves northeastward off of the higher terrain.
Additionally, a dryline is expected to redevelop this afternoon
just east of the forecast area, which will retreat westward and
yield an opportunity for storms across the far eastern Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos this evening into tonight. While
severe weather is not anticipated, some storms that develop may
be capable of producing small hail, gusty winds, and moderate
rainfall. In addition to the chances for precipitation today,
breezy to windy conditions are also expected, especially across
the higher terrain and adjacent plains. A High Wind Warning
remains in effect through this evening for the Guadalupe
Mountains, and a Wind Advisory has also been issued for the Eddy
County Plains and the Van Horn/Hwy 54 corridor, where winds could
gust up to 50 mph from late this morning through this evening.

As the western CONUS trough nears the region on Tuesday,
temperatures will cool slightly, though still remain above normal
with highs in the 60s and 70s for most. However, the string of
above normal temperatures looks to come to an end on Wednesday, as
a cold front moves into northern portions of the forecast area
early Wednesday morning, and progresses southward through the day.
Given the timing of the front, there`s quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding high temperatures Wednesday afternoon, but it looks
like there will be a wide range of temperatures across the
forecast area. Highs Wednesday will likely struggle make it out of
the 40s across the northern Permian Basin, but could still reach
the 60s and 70s south of I-10. While most of the area will remain
dry Wednesday, a few showers are possible with the front, mainly
across far eastern zones where moisture will be available. Another
cool day is on tap for Thursday with light easterly surface flow
and abundant cloudcover. A warm-up is then expected Friday into
next weekend, with temperatures returning to the 60s and 70s for
most of the area, and precipitation chances confined mainly to far
eastern portions of the forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  54  73  34 /  20  20   0  20
Carlsbad                       75  45  65  37 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  58  82  51 /  20  30   0  20
Fort Stockton                  79  51  73  42 /  20  20   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 64  40  56  38 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          72  43  64  33 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          71  39  68  34 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           77  52  71  36 /  20  20   0  20
Odessa                         77  51  70  36 /  20  20   0  20
Wink                           80  47  71  38 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning to 9 PM CST
     /8 PM MST/ this evening for Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

44/84



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.