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000
FXUS64 KMAF 221128
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
528 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A mix of RA/SN/BR being reported across the area including TAF sites.
No real improvement is expected today and in fact they will be
worse at least temporarily and have used TEMPO groups frequently to
reflect deteriorating wx thru the forecast. Prevailing SN later
today and tonight may result in snow packed runways.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is centered over northern New Mexico resulting in
increasing upper lift and moisture over the region.  This upper
system has resulted in snow currently across the TX panhandle and
parts of southeast New Mexico with rain and isolated thunder across
central TX.  Temperatures across the area this morning are
continuing to fall as colder air pushes southward.  Went cooler than
most of the model guidance on high temperatures today due to gusty
winds advecting the colder air into the area faster than what the
models predicted.  Used soundings off of the Texas Tech WRF model to
aid in determining temperatures today.  The change from rain to snow
will depend on how quickly the temperatures drop to near freezing
thus making it a challenging forecast.  Generally expect snow today
across southeast New Mexico, most of the Permian Basin, and the
mountainous areas of West Texas.  A mix of rain and snow will be
present south of the above mentioned area with mostly rain present
across the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend area, and Presidio Valley.
Also, expect the heaviest precipitation today to be across southeast
New Mexico, the western Permian Basin, the Guadalupe Mountains, and
the Upper Trans Pecos.  A Winter Storm Warning is in effect through
tonight across southeast New Mexico, western and central portions of
the Permian Basin, the Upper Trans Pecos, and locations south and
west of the Pecos River excluding the Presidio Valley and Terrell
County.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through tonight for
the eastern and southern Permian Basin.

As temperatures drop to below or near freezing across the CWA
tonight, expect the precipitation to mainly be in the form of snow.
The area of heaviest precipitation tonight appears to shift to the
Lower Trans Pecos area.  The precipitation will begin moving out of
the area on Friday morning as the upper trough moves over central
TX.  Expect storm total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across
the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Higher amounts of 4 to 6+ inches
are possible across parts of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe
Mountains, and the Davis and Apache Mountains.  Most, if not all, of
the precipitation should be out of the CWA Friday afternoon with
surface winds becoming westerly.  This will cause afternoon
temperatures on Friday to warm up into the 40s across most of the
area.

Temperatures heading into the weekend and next week are expected to
warm up with above normal temperatures starting on Sunday.  An upper
trough will be over the eastern conus with an upper ridge over the
western conus.  This upper pattern will aid in keeping conditions
dry for most of the extended forecast.  The models are hinting at
precipitation developing across the area next Thursday and Friday
with the approach of the next upper trough just off the coast of
southern California.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING until 5 AM MST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM CST
     Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Crane...Reagan...Upton.

     WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...
     Pecos...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Glasscock...Howard...Mitchell...Scurry.


&&

$$

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