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000
FXUS64 KMAF 220534
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Look for MVFR ceilings to develop overnight and then deteriorate
to IFR late tonight at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico
terminals. Some fog is also possible but extensive low clouds
should help limit its occurrence. Expect VFR conditions to
develop at the terminals by 22/18z. A strong upper level
disturbance will move into southeast New Mexico and west Texas
near 23/00z, bringing with it the chance for MVFR tsra. For now
will place prob30 groups at KCNM, KHOB, and KFST for tsra late
this afternoon and this evening.

12



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 601 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...
Thunderstorms will develop into wester portions of the forecast
area, but probability is too low to include any mention at KCNM
and KPEQ.  Expect MVFR ceilings to form and spread northwestward
over the area later tonight, followed by IFR ceilings, if not
lower, late tonight.  Have kept fog mention to a minimum
considering the extent of the expected MVFR/IFR cloud deck.
Think ceilings will improve from west to east from 22/14Z after.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 140 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

Shrtwv trof moving across nrn MX along with steep LR/s and ample
low level moisture have combined to result in pockets of heavy
rain across the Big Bend/Lower Trans Pecos (2.14" at Chisos
Basin). These storms are tracking e and area of heaviest rain
confined to the Lower Trans Pecos. Additional development is
possible further w into the Big Bend area, but strongest storms
will likely be farther e. Local heavy rain/a few severe storms
will be possible remainder of the afternoon across parts of the
Trans Pecos. Farther n into the PB a smaller, but at times severe,
cluster of storm is moving n. Most recent radar indicate some
weakening. These storms have good chance to moves into
Andrews/Martin Counties?We have made an adjustment to PoPs and wx
for this PM to account for local heavy rain/severe tstms. By late
afternoon Mon/Mon evening steep mid level LR/s within NW flow and
surface Td in M50s in alignment with daytime heating along with
an identifiable shrtwv trof will be a good set-up for tstms across
PB. Initially tstms will be favored to develop in NE-E NM where
NAM12 indicates highest CAPES will be co-located with an area of
weak CINH. NAM12 targets the N-NE CWFA after 03Z while GFS is
farther w and earlier. Tstms are likely to be severe with MLCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG and 0-6km bulk shear of 40kts so large hail is
favored, NAM12 insists on strong outflow wind too. A cold front
will quickly re-enforce outflow winds and brief post-frontal
precip will be possible mainly in the morning across the PB and
then Lower Trans Pecos/Big Bend region in the afternoon. High/low
temps on Tue are trending lower in the latest MOS #`s, highs in
the U60s-L70s are possible across the PB if clouds hold in. The
warm-up over the following days will be rapid and the cool wx on
Tue will seem like a distant memory. By Thur 85h temps over 30C
and downslope winds will push high temps into the U90s and L100s.
85h temps fall back into the U20C range Fri, but still mostly hot
Memorial Day weekend Fri-Sun.

HYDROLOGY...

Rio Grande at Castolon/Johnson Ranch responded to heavy rains
there this morning, flood warning at Castolon. Terlingua creek
also rose rapidly. Levels will fall rapidly in absence of
additional heavy rain.

Recent rains have done some good to local lakes. Champion Creek
south of Colorado City has risen 6 ft, and is at 50% capacity
which highest level since about 1998. Moss Creek Lake in Howard
County rose 3 ft and Lake Colorado City has risen about 3 ft to
48% capacity. Elsewhere O.H. Ivie is at 24.6% capacity and Lake
J.B. Thomas is at 59% capacity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     79  58  72  53 /  30  60  40  10
Carlsbad                       85  57  75  53 /  30  20  20  10
Dryden                         82  64  80  58 /  30  30  30  10
Fort Stockton                  85  61  74  55 /  20  30  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 82  55  70  52 /  20  20  10  10
Hobbs                          80  54  71  50 /  40  40  20  10
Marfa                          84  55  76  49 /  30  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           81  57  73  54 /  30  50  40  10
Odessa                         81  57  72  54 /  20  50  40  10
Wink                           84  59  75  54 /  20  40  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/12