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000
FXUS64 KMAF 271111
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Southeast winds will become somewhat
gusty this afternoon, at all but CNM and maybe even HOB, then
diminish after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge responsible for the hot wx and remains the dominate wx
feature.  This ridge was centered from the 4 corners region eastward
across the Red River to LA.  The ridge will shift westward over the
next couple of days with the axis extending up across the Rockies as
an upper trough deepens over the Eastern U.S.   As the center of
this ridge moves westward... NW flow aloft will allow disturbances
to move into the region late in the week helping rain chances.

Unseasonably hot temps will continue across the region today...
especially over the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys.  850mb temps
across the Permian Basin will be very warm again today around 28C/82F
and slowly cool next couple of days.  Expect another day of 100
degree temps for most of the area.  Yesterday Dryden hit 105 degrees
and a station in the Big Bend hit 105 too.  Will extend the heat
advisory for Brewster and Terrell counties along the Rio Grande
another day.  The Presidio valley will be close to advisory
conditions but will not include at this time.  Nighttime temps will
continue to be very warm as dewpts in the 50s and 60s along with a
steady nocturnal wind keep temps up.  At midnight it was still 89
degrees in Presidio and 92 at Dryden.

Models have been showing a boundary moving down into the northern
CWA Monday but this may actually be a weak front as it has a
thermal/pressure gradient with it.  This feature lifts northward
Tuesday.  On Thursday it appears another front will move into the
area with models trying to push it all the way to Mexico.  This will
increase rain chances and give a break from the recent hot wx.
Latest MEX long range guidance calling for highs in the 80s now
Thursday and Friday... will stay above that for now.

Even with the ridge did have more afternoon clouds Saturday south of
the Pecos river and should see these again this afternoon.  Had a
few late afternoon storms skirt the Big Bend yesterday and model qpf
shows could have that again today so have expanded the isold pops
from the Davis Mtns south to the Rio Grande and northward to GDP.
On Monday models develop rain along the boundary/front across the
Permian Basin during the afternoon and evening... and to a lesser
extent on Tuesday.  Could be a few storms over the higher elevations
on Wednesday but a better shot of rain begins Thursday and Friday
when the front returns and may have some upper support.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

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