Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 201115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
615 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.


IFR to LIFR cigs will impact most terminals this morning before
conditions improve to MVFR around 15-17Z. Some locations may
experience some scattering/VFR cigs this afternoon before MVFR
cigs return tonight. Winds will generally remain around 10 kt from
the south today.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/

Showers continue to shift northeastward, with the mid to upper
trough this morning, across northeast OK. Elsewhere, some
drizzle/br is present. The low stratus/br should mix out fairly
quickly from west to east after sunrise. Some mid level WAA could
result in a small area of rain/showers developing this morning
over central and northern OK, but confidence is fairly low so will
only include SCHC PoPs through 18Z. Expect dry conditions by this

Late tonight through Saturday morning, WAA on the eastern
edge of the ridge axis may again support showers and elevated
storms across central and northern OK. Then, during the afternoon
hours, a mid level shortwave trough will move through the ridge
axis. Showers and storms may develop early in the afternoon near
northwest OK along the dryline. Another area for possible
development will be across western north TX where deeper boundary
layer moisture is expected. During the overnight hours Sat-Sun AM,
weak height falls associated with another mid level shortwave
trough may result in moist convection shifting eastward into
western OK through the morning. A few strong to severe storms will
be possible through Sat evening, with a threat of damaging winds
and hail.

By sunday afternoon, low level moisture is expected to be abundant
across the Southern Plains with dewpoints in the upper 60s and
even low 70s for a few locations. The dryline should remain just
west of our FA. Height falls associated with an approaching mid
to upper trough to our west and an unstable airmass in place
should result in more widespread moist convection developing
during the afternoon along the dryline and spreading east during
the overnight and early morning hours Monday. Although mid to
upper flow will remain modest (~30 kt), steep mid level lapse
rates and sufficient effective bulk shear could support a large
hail threat especially across western OK and western OK through
Sunday evening.

An unstable airmass is expected to remain in place this entire
week, with several other mid level shortwave perturbations moving
within the WSW flow ahead of a digging trough. Expect the
possibility of strong to severe storms each day, with storm
organization and intensity likely increasing through the week as
the mid to upper flow does the same. For now it appears Thursday
may have the best potential for producing widespread severe
weather as a signficant 500 mb vort max lifts northeastward with
an accompanying jet max, although it`s unclear what will transpire
near the surface.


Oklahoma City OK  75  60  81  62 /  20  20  20  20
Hobart OK         75  61  83  64 /  20  10  10  30
Wichita Falls TX  78  61  85  64 /  10   0  20  20
Gage OK           74  60  83  63 /  20  10  20  30
Ponca City OK     72  59  78  62 /  20  20  30  20
Durant OK         75  60  83  63 /  10   0  10  10


.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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