Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 241833
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
133 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
UPGRADED HEAT ADVISORY TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR KAY...
GRANT... GARFIELD... NOBLE... AND PAYNE COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVING TEMP TRENDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK... ALONG WITH DPTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S THIS AFTN... HEAT INDICES HAVE JUMPED
EARLY... ABOVE 105 AT MOST SITES. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE
NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE DOING A DECENT JOB RESOLVING DPTS IN
NRN OK THIS AFTN. OVERALL... FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT HEAT
INDICES WILL CLIMB TO 110 OR A FEW DEGREES HIGHER FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTN IN NRN OK.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A RIDGE ALOFT
WILL KEEP CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A
NORMAL DIURNAL CYCLE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY
AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT NIGHT.

MAHALE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WILL PROMOTE MAINLY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS TODAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HEAT WILL COMBINE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HUMIDITY
FOR LATE JULY...TO PRODUCE VERY HIGH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES. BASED
ON MESONET DATA...MANY AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 REACHED
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 ON THURSDAY. WITH
SIMILAR VALUES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL BE ADDED TO THE HEAT
ADVISORY.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS. THE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WELL WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  A FEW STORMS MAY SKIRT NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...MAINLY DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR LATE NEXT WEEK...AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         75 102  75 101 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  77 100  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73 100  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     77  99  77  99 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         76 100  76 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ018-019-024>032-
     040>043-047-048-051-052.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-
     008-012-013-020.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/84


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