Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 281746 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
28/18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/18Z TAFS...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS ALONG WITH KSPS IN AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN WAKE OF SNOW. SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF FORECAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER ALL TERMINALS AFTER
02-04Z...IF NOT BEFORE...AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. WILL
MENTION MAINLY FZDZ AND FZFG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

UPDATE...
CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...
LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY SEVERAL DEGREES...MOSTLY 20S INSTEAD
OF TEMPS AROUND AND ABOVE FREEZING. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO WILL APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED THE
FREEZING MARK BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
THEN REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...WILL SPEED UP NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AND MID LEVEL TEMPS
INCREASE AND DRY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE WITH LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW THIS
MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LIGHT SNOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. FREEZING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING, LIKELY TO GIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES. LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SNOW WILL MIX THROUGH THE
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS STRONG WARMING OCCURS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WORKS IT WAY TOWARD THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE MAIN WAVE HELPING MORNING SNOW PRODUCTION
IN THE NORTH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, LESS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL
EXIST IN SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL CREATE
A GOOD CHANCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE PRECIPITATION
TRANSITION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS EFFECTIVE THROUGH
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. CURRENTLY WE EXPECT A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
BECAUSE POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW, THE ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT 6
PM TODAY.

A WEAK FRONT LATER SUNDAY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT, BUT NOT MUCH
COLDER AIR. STRONG WARMING ALOFT AND MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND A CHANCE ELSEWHERE BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER A COLD DAY WEDNESDAY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE LINGERING UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  29  44  29 / 100  40  40  10
HOBART OK         28  28  45  30 /  80  40  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  29  47  35 /  60  40  40  30
GAGE OK           27  26  39  24 / 100  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     27  27  41  26 / 100  60  40  10
DURANT OK         32  32  45  36 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

84/99/11


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