Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 272328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS MADE FOR A COMFORTABLE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID-
60S.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW EVENING NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST ASCENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DOWNDRAFT
CAPE OVER 1300 J/KG...SO GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA MONDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK AS AN
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPS 26-27C NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER
ON TUESDAY AND NEAR 30C ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASED TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER
WAVE SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY PROVIDE
CONTINUED ASCENT. AS A RESULT...WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  90  68  93 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK         64  92  67  96 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  91  68  95 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           64  93  67  94 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     67  93  69  94 /   0  10  20   0
DURANT OK         65  90  67  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25/25



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