245
FXUS64 KOUN 070313
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1013 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1009 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

- Low to moderate rain/thunderstorm chances continue through at
  least mid-week.

- Hot and humid conditions later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue in north
Texas and south central Oklahoma with an apparent MCV between
Wichita Falls and Fort Worth which looks to be drifting slowly
north or northwest. These showers/storms will continue this
afternoon. Although most models have these dissipating early this
evening, having an MCV in a weakly-capped environment means that
we will be watching the trends about how long these may persist
into the evening.

Meanwhile, we have seen cumulus development from west central into
north central Oklahoma and into Kansas. Although the shower and
storm development so far has primarily been in Kansas, it seems
likely that we will see some scattered showers and thunderstorms
develop in north central Oklahoma this afternoon in this weakly-
capped environment. Storms may not be widespread, but mesoscale
analysis shows 1000-1200 J/kg of Downdraft CAPE across these
areas, so some gusty winds will be possible with any strong storms
that develop. And although drier air in mid levels has moved over
the area as seen in the 12Z sounding, the precipitable water was
still calculated at 1.75 inches which is still 90th percentile for
this time of year. With that, locally heavy rainfall will be
possible as well. Showers/storms in this area will likely decrease
around sunset.

Also meanwhile, we may again see the potential of a storm complex
develop and move southeast from afternoon/evening storms in the
Colorado High Plains. Most models suggest that the highest storm
potential will be either north or west of the forecast area, but
there is at least some potential moving into the northwest after
midnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

With the upper ridge holding off to the west, we remain in
northwesterly flow aloft with waves moving southeast across the
northern/central Plains into the Midwest with the associated lift
aiding storm potential. Most of the forcing and the highest
precipitation chances remain to the northeast, but there is still
signal of getting some scattered showers/storms into the area on
both Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures look to continue to be near
or slightly below average for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

PWATs go down as we enter into mid to late week. Reduced cloud cover
will allow for temperatures to gradually warm (though the forecast
does appear to be coming in slightly cooler than previous runs).
Northwest flow will favor nocturnal storm complexes approaching
northern Oklahoma.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1009 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR/MVFR ceilings expected. Showers/storms in northern OK will
continue to slowly move south but are expected to weaken/dissipate
over the next several hours. Additional storms coming out of the
High Plains may move into parts of NW OK early Monday morning.
Scattered showers/storms will then be possible again tomorrow
afternoon/evening in parts of central and southern OK. Winds will
generally be from the S and SE except in some locations, primarily
N and Central OK, where winds shift for a short period of time
due to outflow from the storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  89  72  90 /  20  20  10  40
Hobart OK         70  92  71  93 /  10  10  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  73  90  73  93 /  10  20  10  30
Gage OK           66  90  67  92 /  30  20  40  20
Ponca City OK     70  90  70  91 /  60  10  30  40
Durant OK         74  91  74  91 /  10  30  10  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...25