Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 220231 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
931 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Storms developed late this afternoon and early evening in the
Southern High Plains but continue to have difficulty making much
progress east into central portions of the Texas Panhandle and
West Texas, much less approaching western parts of the fa. With
storms currently ending well before they approach the fa... have
removed pops for the rest of the evening (through 06Z).

There is some uncertainty with the models on whether some
showers/storms might develop overnight/early Sunday and move into
parts of western Oklahoma and western north Texas likely towards
and after sunrise Sunday morning. Have kept pops in parts of the
fa for overnight through Sunday morning but have lowered the
chances for showers/storms. Any severe storms are now unlikely
through Sunday morning across the fa, with the next chance for
severe weather not occuring until Sunday afternoon/evening. Have
also made some adjustments to sky cover and hourly grids to show
current trends. all updates out soon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

22/00Z TAF discussion follows.

Primarily VFR conditions through this evening outside of
possibility of TSRA affecting northwest Oklahoma terminals. MVFR
cigs expected to develop/spread back over region toward and after
06Z and last through 16-18Z. broken cigs near MVFR/VFR threshold
after 18z. will refrain from mentioning TSRA in TAFS outside of
first few hours of forecast cue to wide variation in model
solutions. E/SE winds will stay relatively light overnight with
moderate to strong S/SE winds developing after 12Z all terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 142 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

The upper ridge over Oklahoma will drift east tonight opening the
way for multi-day influence of a slowly-moving, large upper level
trough over the western U.S. Boundary layer moisture and
decreasing stability will exist over the panhandles tonight
allowing for showers and some thunder this evening. some of this
may move into western Oklahoma late this evening and overnight.
Further, showers and thunderstorms may develop early sunday over
northwest texas when a weak upper low passes through the upper
ridge. some of this rain and thunder could pass over southern
Oklahoma and possibly into central Oklahoma during the day Sunday.
Stronger upper flow and further decreased stability will arrive
over western Oklahoma Sunday afternoon while the dry line remains
over the panhandles. Scattered severe thunderstorms may form in
this moist airmass or move into it from the dry line. Monday,
Tuesday, and Wednesday will be similar in that no airmass change
is expected, instability will be high, and upper level flow will
create moderate to strong shear each day. The modulating factors
for where will be severe weather will be the dry line and
mesoscale boundaries. By Thursday or Friday the large upper trough
is expected to move into Oklahoma, possibly giving the most
widespread severe thunderstorms of the week.


Oklahoma City OK  62  79  64  80 /  10  20  30  40
Hobart OK         65  79  66  83 /  20  40  40  30
Wichita Falls TX  66  81  66  83 /  20  40  40  30
Gage OK           65  81  63  87 /  30  30  40  20
Ponca City OK     62  80  65  80 /  10  10  40  50
Durant OK         63  80  65  81 /  10  20  30  50


.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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