Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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224
FXUS64 KOUN 150003
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
603 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings will develop this evening lowering to IFR over
night across most of central and western Oklahoma. However, a
cold front will shift winds to the northwest and quickly return
conditions to VFR starting around GAG and WWR after midnight and
reaching central OK late Wednesday morning. Skies will then clear
across most central and western OK TAF sites during the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Dreary drizzly weather continues. Clouds have lifted a bit this
afternoon, however, surface moisture is set to return tonight.
Low clouds, drizzle, and perhaps some fog will be possible
overnight into the morning.

The surface front is due to arrive at our doorstep around midnight,
then gradually make its way through the CWA by early afternoon.
Overall, rain chances will be low, but the highest chances will be
along and near this front.

A stronger front is due to come through early Saturday morning.
Timing is off by about 6 hours between the slower ECMWF (and most
other models) and the faster GFS. Following WPCs suggestion in
leaning more toward the slower ECMWF/NAM/CMC solution. This will
impact not just the colder air coming in on Saturday, but also the
pre-frontal warming and winds on Friday.

Friday will see abnormally warm high temperatures into the 70s and
80s. That combined with gusty winds will lead to elevated to near
critical fire weather. Gusty winds will continue into Saturday,
where temperatures will be cooler, but moisture will still be
somewhat reduced. Blended some MOS into the forecast to account for
the model tendency to underdo winds and temperatures on these
elevated fire weather days.

Looking toward the weekend and early next week, cool temperatures
return and the forecast stays pretty dry as a ridge builds over us.
A shortwave may bring another chance of rain midweek next week, but
by this point model diverge wildly.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  57  62  41  61 /  10  10   0  10
Hobart OK         55  62  40  63 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  59  65  46  64 /  10  20   0   0
Gage OK           47  60  36  63 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     54  61  37  60 /  30   0   0   0
Durant OK         62  66  51  63 /  10  40  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/09/09



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