


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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234 FXUS64 KOUN 062324 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 624 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 622 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 - Low to moderate rain/thunderstorm chances continue through at least mid-week. - Hot and humid conditions later this week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue in north Texas and south central Oklahoma with an apparent MCV between Wichita Falls and Fort Worth which looks to be drifting slowly north or northwest. These showers/storms will continue this afternoon. Although most models have these dissipating early this evening, having an MCV in a weakly-capped environment means that we will be watching the trends about how long these may persist into the evening. Meanwhile, we have seen cumulus development from west central into north central Oklahoma and into Kansas. Although the shower and storm development so far has primarily been in Kansas, it seems likely that we will see some scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in north central Oklahoma this afternoon in this weakly- capped environment. Storms may not be widespread, but mesoscale analysis shows 1000-1200 J/kg of Downdraft CAPE across these areas, so some gusty winds will be possible with any strong storms that develop. And although drier air in mid levels has moved over the area as seen in the 12Z sounding, the precipitable water was still calculated at 1.75 inches which is still 90th percentile for this time of year. With that, locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well. Showers/storms in this area will likely decrease around sunset. Also meanwhile, we may again see the potential of a storm complex develop and move southeast from afternoon/evening storms in the Colorado High Plains. Most models suggest that the highest storm potential will be either north or west of the forecast area, but there is at least some potential moving into the northwest after midnight tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 With the upper ridge holding off to the west, we remain in northwesterly flow aloft with waves moving southeast across the northern/central Plains into the Midwest with the associated lift aiding storm potential. Most of the forcing and the highest precipitation chances remain to the northeast, but there is still signal of getting some scattered showers/storms into the area on both Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures look to continue to be near or slightly below average for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 101 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 PWATs go down as we enter into mid to late week. Reduced cloud cover will allow for temperatures to gradually warm (though the forecast does appear to be coming in slightly cooler than previous runs). Northwest flow will favor nocturnal storm complexes approaching northern Oklahoma. Day && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 VFR/MVFR ceilings this TAF period. Scattered thunderstorms in southern KS and parts of N OK will continue to move south this evening. Strong variable winds will be possible with some of the storms. Additional showers/storms will be possible Monday. Winds will generally be from the S and SE although winds could shift for a short time due to outflow from the storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 71 89 72 90 / 10 20 10 40 Hobart OK 70 92 71 93 / 10 10 20 30 Wichita Falls TX 73 90 73 93 / 10 20 10 30 Gage OK 66 90 67 92 / 30 20 40 20 Ponca City OK 70 90 70 91 / 20 10 30 40 Durant OK 74 91 74 91 / 10 30 10 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...25