Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 251750
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST TAF SITES. A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL AFFECT KGAG
AND KWWR BY MID-AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AFTER 00Z. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN
MVFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE BY 18Z TOMORROW.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
WITH THIS UPDATE WE WILL REMOVE ALL BUT ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES
FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST OF BRYAN...AND IN SOUTHEAST
ATOKA...COUNTIES...AND SNOW IS STILL LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A COMPACT UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS TODAY...BUT ALL SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS. BKN MID LEVEL CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO MID AFTERNOON FROM KSPS/KLAW TO KOKC/KOUN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO ALL
TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 02Z. A FEW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE MANY CONCERNS THIS MORNING REGARDING CHANCES FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. FIRST...WE LOOK TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY OVER
FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THEN FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO INCREASING POTENTIAL OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND FREEZING RAIN.

THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NUDGES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
EXPECT MOST OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...BUT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MAY LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...THOUGH SOME AREAS WITHIN THE ADVISORY MAY SEE LITTLE
MORE THAN A DUSTING WITH THE EXTREMELY TIGHT SNOW GRADIENT WE
EXPECT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW TODAY...A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF TOMORROW. SPOTTY
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE MAY OCCUR...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN FREQUENT AND WIDESPREAD 40+ MPH WIND GUSTS IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE
AN ADVISORY. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE WINDS UPSTREAM
TO DETERMINE WHETHER AN ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE NEXT SHOT OF WINTER WEATHER
WILL TAKE SHAPE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION.
MODELS VARY GREATLY ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE NAM...AS
USUAL...BEING MOST AGGRESSIVE. STILL...GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
COLD AIR...AND RATHER LARGE SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS...SOME
ACCUMULATIONS DO APPEAR LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...AREAS OF WEST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LOOK TO
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL
PRIMARILY BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS MAY
RECEIVE MORE. THIS IS ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE...SO SUBSTANTIAL
DEVIATIONS IN AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH...AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THE FORECAST
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE GETS EXTREMELY TRICKY...AND
DOWNRIGHT FRUSTRATING. SEVERAL RIPPLES WILL TRAVEL THROUGH THE
SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MOST ANY DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN APPEAR
PROBABLE NORTH OF I-40...BUT THIS IS GOING TO CHANGE BETWEEN NOW
AND THIS WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY...THE MAIN TROUGH AND SFC LOW SHOULD
ALLOW MOST PRECIP TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN...AND THERE COULD
EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE WEEKEND...AS
PROLONGED FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STAY TUNED!

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  22  30  14 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         56  23  32  14 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  27  37  18 /  20   0  10  20
GAGE OK           56  18  27   9 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     51  20  28   9 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         39  26  35  21 / 100   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ048-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/04/10


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