Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 261721
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR TSRA NEAR KWWR AND KGAG
03-12Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING... AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS NORTHWEST... BUT DO NOT THINK
THAT THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TOO BIG OF AN ISSUE THIS MORNING.
SO AGAIN THE HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE. AGAIN... DO NOT TRUST
THE MODEL BLEND OF PROJECTED DEWPOINTS GIVEN THAT WE HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO HANG ON TO SOME DECENT DEWPOINTS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
/THE SOMEWHAT DECREASING TREND DAY-TO-DAY NOTWITHSTANDING/ SO HAVE
KEPT DEWPOINT GRIDS HIGHER THAN THE INITIALIZATION. THE FORECAST
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE RIGHT NEAR 105 SO AGAIN WE UP RIGHT AGAINST
THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES. WILL
KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS. RIGHT NOW THE HEAT INDEX PROJECTIONS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER... BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON
THE HOW HIGH THE DEWPOINTS CAN STAY TOMORROW.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17



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