Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 130243
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
943 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN...AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL
TO A FEW FLASHES OF LIGHTNING AND MAYBE A SMALL AREA OF HEAVY
RAIN. RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FURTHER TOMORROW AS A
LARGER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

WE HAVE ADDED AN AREA OF LOW POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
SUNRISE.

NO OTHER CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED. WINDS ARE THE BIGGEST
CONCERN.

WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING...
SCALED BACK MENTION AND ONLY KEPT THEM NEAR KOKC AND KOUN
15-18Z. MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP NEAR KGAG AND KWWR AFTER
18Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE 01-15Z...BUT
DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AS SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN GUSTY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST 15-24Z BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND GUSTY
WINDS...POSSIBLY 35-40 KT. THINK FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEAR
KOKC...KSPS...AND KLAW 21-24Z.

A FEW GUSTS MAY BE NEAR 35 KT AT KOKC 15-24Z WHICH WOULD REQUIRE
THE ISSUANCE OF AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING. DID NOT ISSUE AT THIS
TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

TSRA MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC
AFTER 21Z. ADDED VCTS AT THESE SITES.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EXTREMELY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA ALONG WITH
WINDS ABOUT 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO JUSTIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING
INTO THE EVENING TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN
TIMING, BUT THEY BOTH PUSH THE DRYLINE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE FRONT RACING SOUTH. BY
NOON THE DRYLINE MAY BE NEAR AN EL RENO TO WALTERS LINE - THIS
TAKING THE AVERAGE OF POSITIONS BETWEEN THESE 2 MODELS. THE
SOUTHWEST AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL BE LEFT OUT OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES; HOWEVER, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
LIKELY QUICKLY TOWARDS THE NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY. THE WINDOW IS
BASICALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING FAST. THE
BIG STORY WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS (APPROACHING WIND
ADVISORY) AND THE COLD AIR. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM THE 90S IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO THE 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP QUICKLY INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40 EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WATCH IS
EFFECTIVE EARLY TUESDAY OF MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 20S AND LOWER
30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  83  39  48 /  10  50  40  30
HOBART OK         65  83  38  52 /  20  20  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  89  40  53 /  20  20  20  10
GAGE OK           58  72  34  49 /  20  20  40  30
PONCA CITY OK     65  75  35  47 /  10  70  40  40
DURANT OK         65  76  44  52 /  30  50  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ004>032-034-035-038>043-046>048.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ021>023-033>038-044.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

23/17



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