Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 030316
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
916 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WAS HANDLED WELL IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST GRIDS. KEPT WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DEALING
WITH CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW...THOUGH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM CHEYENNE TO
MEDFORD HAVE REPORTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 46 MPH RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST MESONET REPORTS. MOST GUSTS SHOULD
STAY JUST BELOW 40 MPH.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER MAY
BE TRICKY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MOST LATEST MODELS DEPICTED
CLEARING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT...WHICH MAY NOT OCCUR AS
THERE APPEARS TO BE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA FROM A DEPARTING SNOW STORM.
ALSO...NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN FAVOR STRATOCUMULUS MAINTENANCE
WHICH MAY PUSH THE CLOUD SHIELD SOUTH OF I-40 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THUS...GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOWS
NORTH OF I-40 WHERE CLOUDS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR AND THE COLDER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOWS SOUTH OF I-40 WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR. CLOUD COVER MAY AGAIN
BE TRICKY. FOR NOW...WENT WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY...THOUGH NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR DUE TO LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY WINDS AND NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. USED
A MODEL BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS WITH A SLIGHT PREFERENCE TOWARDS
THE COOLER NUMBERS. HIGHS MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST IF CLOUD COVER LINGERS. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOWEST
TO CLEAR OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY CONTINUE IN
PLACES...BUT THESE CLOUDS MAY HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF GETTING
ERODED ON THURSDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB AND 925 MB INCREASE. THINK HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HINTED THAT A
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT A LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW...POSSIBLY MUCH BELOW...
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  26  43  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         26  44  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  27  47  24  53 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           22  41  17  50 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  40  21  49 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         32  47  27  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/26


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