Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 240214 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
914 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR OVERNIGHT
HOURS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS OR ELEVATED NON-SEVERE STORMS
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR AT MANY SITES
02-14Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

ISO -TSRA MAY AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 08-16Z...AND PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 21Z. DID NOT MENTION AS
CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ASCENT FROM THE WAVE WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA...WHICH APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS.
SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELLS. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS DO INITIATE A FEW DISCRETE STORMS WITH UPDRAFT HELICITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE
GREATEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TRENDED THE STORM CHANCES SOUTHWEST TO
ACCOUNT FOR MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT ON LATEST GUIDANCE. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT IS CURRENTLY
LOW. THE EXTENT OF THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MODULATED BY THE
DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN...WHICH LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR NOW.

MONDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION.

TUESDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER DAY. CURRENTLY...CONSENSUS INDICATES THE
DRYLINE/CONVECTIVE INITIATION WOULD BE JUST WEST OF I-35 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY
AND VERY STEEP MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TO GIANT HAIL. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THE
TORNADO RISK MAY INCREASE AS THE STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
LOWER LCL HEIGHTS.

THE GREATEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES ARE THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH
AND THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE. CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST NAM IS SLOWER THAN BOTH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...WITH A
SLIGHT DISPLACEMENT IN SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE TIMING OF
THE TROUGH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE DOWNSTREAM
SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THEREFORE...THERE MIGHT SOME VARIATIONS/SHIFTS IN
THE FORECAST...BUT BOTTOM LINE...BE PREPARED FOR POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY.

BEYOND TUESDAY...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY..ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY.

A BRIEF BREAK APPEARS POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. FLOODING/FLASH
FLOODING COULD BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD. SEVERE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

THE NEXT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER MIGHT BE
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
APPROACHES THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS THIS FAR
OUT....BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  79  62  84 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         59  81  58  86 /   0  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  82  62  89 /   0  10  10   0
GAGE OK           60  85  53  82 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  80  61  82 /  10  20  30  20
DURANT OK         57  79  64  81 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/17



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