Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 222048
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
248 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA REMAINS THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED RAIN SOUTH OF AN ALTUS TO STILLWATER LINE
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR AN ARCHER CITY TEXAS TO WICHITA FALLS
TO DUNCAN LINE. WIDESPREAD ONE TO THREE INCHES...IF NOT LOCALLY
MORE...OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

THINK AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
EAST OF THE LINE MENTION ABOVE...AND SOUTH OF ADA...THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AS MID/UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO MOVE TODAY. LOCALIZED URBAN/RURAL FLOODING CAN BE
EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT FLASH FLOODING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED 2 INCHES TODAY AND
WHERE RAIN RATES EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FLOODING POTENTIAL...INCLUDING RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
THESE AREAS. GENERALLY THINK THESE RAINS WILL EASE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.

REST OF TONIGHT...MOST RAINFALL SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR A DAMP MUGGY AND MILD NIGHT. SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA...THOUGH DOUBT FOG WILL BE AS DENSE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AND EARLIER TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA. FOG
MAY BE A CONCERN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. IT WILL BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WHERE GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 MPH. FOR NOW...DID NOT
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH VERTICAL
MIXING WILL OCCUR. KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON RAIN
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY WARMER THAN LAST WEEK...CAN
BE EXPECTED. WITH NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED. A FEW DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AT TIMES.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  62  35  56 /  30  30  20   0
HOBART OK         49  62  34  57 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  66  38  59 /  40   0   0   0
GAGE OK           40  57  29  54 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     54  62  33  53 /  10  50  20   0
DURANT OK         55  70  40  60 /  80  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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