Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

000
FXUS64 KOUN 181530 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1030 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.UPDATE...
With the thunderstorm complex moving southeast of the fa, the
weak WAA that caused isolated showers/storms in NW and Central OK
appearing to have ended, and no additional activity expected,
have removed PoPs for the rest of the day. Overall, rest of
forecast looks pretty good with some minor tweaks to sky cover and
hourly grids to show current trends. All updates out soon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016/

AVIATION...
18/12Z TAFs. LIFR conditions will be seen at KPNC with fog forming
on northern periphery of exiting thunderstorm complex. This fog is
expected to dissipate by 16Z. MVFR fog will be mentioned across
central and southern Oklahoma terminals with clearing skies, light
wind, and wet ground. After 14-16Z expect VFR conditions to
prevail with light winds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MCS will continue moving southeast and out of the CWA early this
morning. Damaging wind threat has come down the past hour or so
but will continue to be monitored. We will hold on to low pops
across western and central portions of Oklahoma with isolated
elevated activity trying to develop over eastern TX panhandle and
is supported with latest short range models. Afternoon should be
dry across the area. That will be the end of POPs until late week
when impacts from developing longwave trough begin to influence
the region.

Unseasonably hot and humid conditions expected through at least
mid-week and the recent rainfall will exacerbate the humidity.
Afternoon heat indices Monday and Tuesday will approach or
slightly exceed 100 many areas. Lower level thermal ridge progd to
shift north and west of most of CWA Wednesday into late week as
stronger and backed flow commences ahead of strengthening western
trough. This yield progd temperatures to be a little cooler for
the latter half of the week. Guidance appear to be cooling things
off a little too much too soon so went with warmer
initializations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  71  94  70 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         89  68  95  69 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  92  71  96  71 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           90  64  95  67 /  20   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     87  70  93  70 /  20   0   0   0
Durant OK         90  71  95  71 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/17



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.