Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 221108
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
608 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 231200.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER RELATIVELY DRY AND SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR
TODAY BEFORE A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE ROCKIES BRINGS STRONGER
SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PASSING ACROSS WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CAUSE A CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDER LATER SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS APPROACHING OKLAHOMA AND A DRYLINE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OF NEXT WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE COINCIDENCE OF VARIOUS FEATURES,
ESPECIALLY THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WITH WESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE DRY AIR BY MID-DAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING BACK NORTH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
AND THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONT MAY BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED
RIVER. MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHICH COULD PROVIDE A TRIPLE POINT THURSDAY IN OKLAHOMA.
THIS DAY MAY HAVE SIMILAR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS TUESDAY.
THE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL WITH ASSOCIATED
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  52  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         78  50  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  52  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           78  53  82  59 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     77  50  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         78  54  80  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/09/09



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