Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 171121
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR MAY OCCUR AT KPNC THROUGH 14Z...
BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

ISO TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA 18-02Z...MAINLY WEST AND
SOUTH OF A KAVK-KOUN-KSNL LINE...BUT CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY TAF SITE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS DEALING WITH HOT WEATHER...PERHAPS THE
HOTTEST SO FAR THIS SUMMER...DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ANY
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SPARSE AND LOCALIZED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

DID NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AS CONFIDENCE OF HEAT INDICES
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES REMAINS RATHER LOW. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH FORECAST SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS...WHICH MAY DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE GROUND DRIES OUT.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY. MORE SUN WILL ALLOW FOR HOTTER
READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
95 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE.

THIS MORNING...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA. KEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF A WAURIKA
TO ADA TO HOLDENVILLE LINE. ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...THINK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY IN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
LATEST HRRR HINTS AT FIRST DEVELOPMENT 1 TO 3 PM ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...SOMEWHERE NEAR A GAGE TO HOBART TO ATOKA
LINE. WENT WITH 10 TO 20 PERCENT ISOLATED MENTION WEST AND SOUTH
OF AN ALVA TO CHICKASHA TO SEMINOLE LINE. ANY STORM WOULD MOVE
VERY SLOWLY WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE
MAIN HAZARDS...THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO VERY WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. REMOVED RAIN CHANCES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW 15 PERCENT...THOUGH THERE MAY A FEW MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WENT FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE
WITH TEMPERATURES. WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT MAY OCCUR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  98  73 101  74 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK        101  73 103  74 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX 100  75 103  77 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK          100  70 102  71 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     96  71 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         96  74  99  76 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/17


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