Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 260350 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1050 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WINDS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED SO CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND JUST HAVE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE FA.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IN
KANSAS AND PANHANDLES INTO NW OK WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING... WITH STRONG AND VARIABLE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT. SATELLITE
SHOWS STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING SOON. LARGE HAIL
LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE AREA GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
HIGH CLOUDS BASES EXPECTED. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE
FRONT... BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS WELL. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A LINE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT BARRELS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.

ALSO OF CONCERN ARE THE VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE WE UPGRADED
TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING EARLIER THIS EVENING. GUSTS OF 60 MPH
WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH A SLIGHT WARMING THIS WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS SOLUTION IS STILL QUITE AN OUTLIER WITH
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PERSISTING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  43  61  40  63 /  90   0  10   0
HOBART OK         40  62  38  66 /  20   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  45  63  42  69 /  60   0   0   0
GAGE OK           33  66  36  70 /  40   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     38  60  36  59 /  40  10  10   0
DURANT OK         49  62  41  66 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>047-050-051.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/25



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