Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 240555
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUES TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL REMAIN MAINLY
EAST OF I-35 WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED. RAIN RATES HAVE
DECREASED IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA TO SHAWNEE
LINE. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THESE LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES
AT BEST WITH MANY LOCATIONS ONLY RECEIVING LESS THAN AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL AS THE AIR IS WORKED OVER AND STABLE FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION.

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS VERY LOW DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONFINED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
MENTIONED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE.

MAY REMOVE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND
UNDER 1 INCH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

RA WILL CONTINUE TO END WEST TO EAST AT MOST SITES THROUGH 12Z.
ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA MAY OCCUR AFTER 12Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE
MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

ONCE RA ENDS...WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FORM. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY BE IFR OR LOWER 12-15Z WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z.

MBS

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/17/30


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