Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 200933
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SCATTERED WAA SHOWERS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW
OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS LATE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT APPEARS
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
EAST OF CWA. WEAK FRONT PROGD TO STALL NEAR INTERSTATE-40 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE EFFECT EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND
SHIFT...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COUPLE OF MODELS
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF RETREATING
FRONT. POPS WILL NOT BE ADDED THIS PACKAGE WITH MEAN RIDGE
POSITION.

LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL PROGD TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY MID-WEEK...YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO KEEP MORE ENERGY AND COLDER TEMPS
ALOFT FARTHER NORTH AND DECREASING QPF OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. POPS WERE LOWERED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40 AND ALSO WITH
TREND OF A FASTER PROGRESSION OF TROUGH...POPS WERE DECREASED OR
REMOVED ALTOGETHER THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  57  80  57 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         82  58  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           79  53  79  53 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     78  54  78  54 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         80  58  82  57 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



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