Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 150327
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
927 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017
Updated hourly temperature/dewpoint/cloud cover forecast through
13Z based on current observations/short-term models.
Mid/upper level low continues to shift eastward into Arkansas
this evening. With the ascent shifting eastward and drier air
advecting southward, most of the precipitation has ended. Only
some light rain (Trace-0.02"/hour) continues in far southeast
Oklahoma, which should dissipate the next couple hours.
Otherwise, cloud cover is expected to decrease through the
overnight hours. Overnight lows will be seasonable--generally in
the upper 20Fs to 30Fs tonight.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 529 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/
AVIATION... /For the 00z TAFs/
Light rain, MVFR ceilings, and visibility at southern TAF sites
will persist into the early evening. As the rain ends, ceilings
will quickly increase and VFR conditions will return. Northwest
winds will remain light through the TAF period.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/
Large area of precipitation will continue to move across the area
the rest of the afternoon and this evening as the upper low
continues to slowly move across Oklahoma/north Texas. Most of the
precipitation continues to be rain but for locations near the low
snow has been occurring with light accumulations on grassy and
elevated surfaces. The rain mixing with snow is expected to continue
as the low moves across the area despite sfc temps currently in the
low to mid 40s across parts of the area. Observations have shown sfc
temps dropping into the 30s as the low slowly moves east which has
helped with the occurrence of snow.
The precipitation has ended/been winding down across portions of
northern and western OK. The precipitation is expected to slowly
decrease/end from N to S/SE through this evening with all
precipitation ending overnight as the upper low exits the area.
Another relatively cool day is expected Wednesday before
temperatures return to the 60s and 70s on Thursday. These warmer
temperatures are expected to continue through the weekend into at
least early next week.
Models show another upper low moving across the region late this
week but no precipitation is expected in the fa with this system.
Models then show an upper trough moving across the central U.S.
Sunday into early next week with a closed low developing in south
Texas. With southerly winds returning to the area Thursday moisture
is expected to move into the area and would be in place ahead of
this system which would bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms
Sunday into Monday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 33 54 34 66 / 10 0 0 0
Hobart OK 31 54 32 66 / 10 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 34 55 33 67 / 10 0 0 0
Gage OK 28 56 32 72 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 30 54 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 38 56 35 63 / 20 0 0 0