Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 211657
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1155 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to continue through much of the forecast period
across all TAF sites. Light east/southeast winds with a few high
clouds through this evening. An increase in mid clouds will occur
late tonight as well as the development of MVFR ceilings from north
Texas into southern Oklahoma.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 12 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light surface winds are expected to continue.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Below average temperatures are expected to continue for
the next several days. Rain chances will increase Monday, then
continue for the rest of the week.

The biggest changes to the previous forecast were to remove rain
chances today and tonight across far southern Oklahoma and western
north Texas as well as to decrease low temperatures tonight. The
surface cold front and low level drier air have pushed farther
south than previously forecast.

Today will be a sunny day with low humidity across the region.
Patchy fog may impact a few low lying areas across southern
Oklahoma before 9 am, but did not mention due to low confidence
of occurrence. Preferred the slightly warmer side of guidance
highs today, mainly in the mid to upper 80s, about 4-8 degrees
below average.

Tonight should be mostly clear and fairly cool for late August.
Several locations will fall into the 50s. Could not completely
rule out patchy fog formation south of a Knox City to Wichita
Falls to Atoka line late tonight into Monday morning, but did not
mention due to low confidence of occurrence.

Monday and Monday night, moisture will increase south to north.
Kept the highest rain chances in southern Oklahoma and north
Texas, mainly during the late afternoon and nighttime hours.
Widespread rainfall seems unlikely. Locally heavy rainfall may be
possible with any storm as precipitable water values climb to
1.6-2" (85-99% for this time of year). Severe potential appears to
be rather low due fairly weak shear and weak instability.

Tuesday through Saturday, rain chances were kept each day. Tuesday
and Wednesday may be breezy and perhaps warmer than the past few
days. A front may arrive and stall somewhere over the central and
southern Plains Wednesday through Saturday which may allow for
rounds of showers and thunderstorms with perhaps a focus for heavy
rainfall over northwestern Oklahoma. Heavy rainfall will be the
main hazard with any showers and thunderstorm with nearby deep
moisture. Increasing mid level winds and stronger 0-6 km shear
support multicells during this time frame, especially Wednesday
and Thursday, which combined with increasing instability and
abundant moisture may allow for some severe storms with
damaging winds.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  86  59  88  71 /   0   0  20  50
Hobart OK         88  59  88  70 /   0   0  20  40
Wichita Falls TX  88  63  87  71 /   0  10  30  50
Gage OK           87  57  89  69 /   0   0  10  30
Ponca City OK     85  56  87  71 /   0   0  10  40
Durant OK         87  64  86  72 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/17/17



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