Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 192327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
527 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below.


Have very low confidence in the TAFs.

At KOKC and KOUN, believe conditions will generally bounce
between MVFR/VFR before 12 UTC. IFR conditions and a wind shift
to the north will likely occur 1-6 hours behind a cold front
passage 12-21 UTC. Went with a later time of -TSRA (09-12 UTC),
but storm timing, if -TSRA happens at all, remains very uncertain.

AT KSPS, KLAW, KHBR, and KCSM, generally think VFR conditions will
occur, though MVFR conditions are possible, mainly after 06 UTC.
Went with a later time of -TSRA (07-11 UTC) at KSPS and KLAW, but
storm timing, if -TSRA happens at all, remains very uncertain.
Chances for -TSRA remain too low to mention near KCSM and KHBR.
Surface winds at KCSM and possibly KHBR remain tricky before
06 UTC near a front, though they should shift to the
south/southeast. A wind shift to the north will occur with cold
front passage 12-21 UTC.

At KPNC, worsening conditions are expected now through 15 UTC with
IFR/LIFR conditions expected. Airport minimums may be met as well
03-15 UTC. Improving conditions are expected after 15 UTC.
Kept TEMPO -RA mention 05-09 UTC, though confidence of occurrence
is decreasing.

At KWWR and KGAG, surface winds remain tricky before 12 UTC, but
generally think they will shift to the southeast. MVFR conditions
will likely become IFR and possibly LIFR near KWWR 03-15 UTC.
KGAG may have IFR/LIFR conditions 03-15 UTC as well. Surface
winds will become northerly by 12 UTC. Improving conditions can
be expected after 13 UTC.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/

A shallow cold airmass has moved across the northern half of
Oklahoma (western half) today behind a cold front. The front may
move as far south as Hobart, Norman and Chandler before becoming
stationary by late afternoon/early evening. Overnight, most high
resolution models lift the frontal boundary northward during the
evening and overnight. The front may lift back to around a
Stillwater to Woodward line. Areas of fog and drizzle may also
develop along and north of the boundary. So far the NAM has done a
decent job with the frontal position and post frontal
temperatures. Therefore, will follow its frontal timing as the
front moves southward on Tuesday. Expect this timing may be a
little slow however.

On the warm side of the front, widely scattered showers and a few
storms have developed over the past hour or so. Widely scattered
storms will remain possible through the afternoon mainly elevated
in nature. There is enough instability and effective shear for
some hail.

Better shower and thunderstorm develop will arrive this evening
and overnight as part of the western trough lifts northeast into
the central and northern Plains. A weak shortwave trough will also
approach western Texas this evening. Overall not very confident
how convection/precipitation will evolve tonight, but will keep
higher rain chances mainly along and east of Highway 81.

Precipitation chances will diminish from north to south on Tuesday
as the cold front pushes into northern Texas by late Tuesday
afternoon/early evening. Rain and storms should linger across
parts of southeastern Oklahoma Tuesday night. Some of the rain may
be heavy which may result in areas of minor flooding.

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough will approach the southern Plains.
This may result in more precipitation with a risk of freezing
rain and maybe sleet. How quickly the cold air erodes is still
uncertain, but some ice accumulations seem possible Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Surface winds during the period are not expected
to be very strong.

At least two more opportunities for rain and storms will arrive
Thursday into Friday/early Saturday.


Oklahoma City OK  64  68  27  37 /  70  60  10  30
Hobart OK         61  66  25  35 /  30  20   0  30
Wichita Falls TX  66  72  32  38 /  60  50  20  50
Gage OK           39  47  15  33 /  10  10   0  30
Ponca City OK     39  49  22  37 /  60  60   0  20
Durant OK         65  66  38  42 /  80  90  70  60




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