Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 190221 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
921 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.UPDATE...
evening update follows.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increased/added pops to areas of western Oklahoma north of I-40
based on radar/model trends. Scattered to numerous showers will
continue to develop and move east out of western Texas this
evening and overnight. Will keep mention of thunder to far
southern Oklahoma and our Texas counties. Other than hourly tweaks
to dewpoints and temps, no other changes this update.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings persist across southeast Oklahoma and north central
Texas including KSPS and KLAW. Through the evening, the MVFR
ceilings will become more widespread. Rain developing over west
Texas and the Texas panhandle this evening will spread into north
Texas and Oklahoma overnight with most TAF sites likely
experiencing prevailing precipitation for a time. Areas of IFR
ceilings are likely to develop Thursday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 421 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Cloud cover and rain chances will increase tonight into tomorrow
across north Texas and most of Oklahoma, as moisture begins to
flow back north. However, rain should be relatively light, and
thunderstorm chances will be low, because the southerly flow will
be made up mostly of recirculated cool air.

An upper-level shortwave trough will pass over Oklahoma and
vicinity tomorrow, and as it departs tomorrow night, rain chances
will drop again, leading into a dry Friday and Saturday.

Over the weekend, southerly flow will continue, and little change
is expected through midweek. This will cause a gradual increase in
rain/thunderstorm chances. The highest chances will start out in
the west Saturday night, then shift slowly east with time. Some
severe weather appears likely each day from Sunday onward through
midweek...again mainly in the west at first, then shifting
slightly east each day.

Temperatures will show a gradual warming trend through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  65  53  74 /  40  60  30  10
Hobart OK         52  64  53  74 /  70  60  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  54  66  55  77 /  60  70  20  10
Gage OK           47  65  51  73 /  40  50  20  10
Ponca City OK     50  67  52  74 /  10  40  30  10
Durant OK         56  66  57  76 /  50  70  40  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

11/26



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