Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 200255 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
955 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS MORE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER. THINK
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE 70 DEGREES OR HIGHER AND DUE TO
HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

THE FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR TONIGHT...THAT WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
FROM HOBART TO ALTUS TO QUANAH AT 950 PM APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD POOL. WITH THIS THOUGHT AND LOOKING AT
LATEST HRRR RUNS...THINK THIS LINE WILL GROW UPSCALE...BECOME A
LARGE ORGANIZED COMPLEX AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BRINGING SOME WIND AND HAIL REPORTS. A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES
COULD OCCUR ALONG THIS LINE AS WELL. THIS LINE MAY ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
STAY SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
A FEW NON SEVERE AND LIGHTER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY AFFECT
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CURRENT MASS OF TSRA FROM THE TX PANHANDLE E INTO CENTRAL OK WILL
FILL IN AND BECOME A SINGLE LARGE STORM COMPLEX TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS
A COLD FRONT ADVANCES S FROM KS. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE EXTREMELY VARIABLE OVER SPACE AND TIME.
IN ADDITION...SCT +TSRA OVER S OK AND N TX WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...AND SOME OF THEM WILL BE SEVERE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A
SINGLE LARGE STORM COMPLEX SHOULD ADVANCE SE ACROSS ALL OUR TAF
SITES EXCEPT KGAG...KWWR...AND KPNC...WHICH SHOULD BE N OF THE
AREA OF DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 2 HOURS OF
+TSRA...FOLLOWED BY MAYBE AN HOUR OF -RA AS THE STORMS ADVANCE
SOUTH OF EACH SITE. AS THE STORMS DEPART TO THE S/SE...N WINDS
WILL BEGIN...AND COOLER AIR WILL FLOW IN. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
UNLIMITED ONCE THE RAIN STOPS...BUT LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY SLOW INCREASES IN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...BUT IF THE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE LAYER IS THIN
ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EXISTING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN MERGE INTO A SINGLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE STORMS WITH
IT...TEMPORARILY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN HAS
CAUSED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE...AREAS OF FLOODING. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS
AND HIGHWAYS IN URBANIZED AREAS UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WE
HAVE EXPANDED OUR FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN IN/NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WEEKENDS...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE THE
CLASSIC SEVERE-WEATHER LOOK TO IT. IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED.
NEVERTHELESS...IF WE DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY.

DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MAY BRING US A FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY NOT GUARANTEED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  68  53  66 /  70  40  20  10
HOBART OK         53  67  52  66 / 100  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  76  57  69 / 100  40  50  30
GAGE OK           45  62  47  64 /  40  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     51  66  50  66 /  60  30  10  10
DURANT OK         62  80  59  71 / 100  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012>014-
     016>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

&&

$$

MBS


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