Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 252342
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO NW OK THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO AROUND 20 KT AT
WWR/GAG. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT IMPACTING MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY OVER PNC...OKC
AND OUN. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TO SAY THIS IS A CHALLENGING FORECAST WOULD BE AN UNDERSTATEMENT...
SO LETS START FROM THE BEGINNING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... AFTER PLEASANT WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL RUSH SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IN RESPONSE... NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING... SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN/SWRN OK AND WRN
N TX. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NRN... WRN AND SWRN
OK AND WRN N TX. ON THE HEELS OF THIS FRONT... LOWS WILL DIP INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING... THE FIRST OF SEVERAL MINOR... YET
IMPORTANT H500 SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE SRN PLAINS. WITH A VERY
COLD AIRMASS ALREADY SITUATED OVER THE REGION... PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN NM INTO THE PANHANDLES THU NIGHT. THE CHANCE
FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS WRN/SWRN OK
AND WRN N TX. MID-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVIDED IN SOME RESPECT...
WITH THE 12Z GFS DEVELOPING A NARROW SWATH OF SNOW NOSING INTO
TEXOMA THROUGH NOON FRIDAY... WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF ARE A TAD SLOWER
AND DEVELOP A BROADER AREA OF SNOW... AT THE MOMENT... CONTINUED
WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE... WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS... MAYBE
0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES... ALONG/NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY/SWRN OK/WRN N
TX. THE CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY INTO
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... BUT NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
LATER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY... PRECIP TYPE BECOMES A GREATER CHALLENGE... WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... A SFC
HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
CAUSING SFC WINDS TO ORIENT E/SE... WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS LINED UP WELL WITH
THE GFS WITH REGARDS TO SFC/BL FLOW... WITH A GREATER SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT SETTING UP THROUGH THE LATE AFTN. MEANWHILE... AT THE SAME
TIME... MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ORIENT TO THE S/SW... INCREASING
THE WARM NOSE THROUGH THE DAY. BY NOON IT WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION... WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET ACROSS
CENTRAL OK AND LIGHT RAIN/FZRA MIX ACROSS TEXOMA. NOTE... BUFR
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN INVALUABLE FOR DIAGNOSING
PRECIP TYPE.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY... WITH SOUTHERLY SFC/BL FLOW CONTINUING...
TEMPS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH RA/FZRA MIX CHANGING TO RA SLOWLY
ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX TO CENTRAL OK BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A WINTRY
MIX WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS NRN OK THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN OK/WRN N TX.

MONDAY... AT THE MOMENT... FZRA LOOKS LIKELY... WITH MAYBE SOME
SLEET ACROSS WRN/NRN OK FROM ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ERICK TO
WEATHERFORD TO GUTHRIE TO STILLWATER THROUGH NOON. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT... MAYBE .01 TO .02 INCHES OF ICE... BUT TEMPS WILL WARM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND RAIN CHANCES WILL PUSH NORTH... WITH A
WINTRY MIX THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING.

THE BIG TAKEAWAY AT THE MOMENT IS THE IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE SAT-MON... WITH PERIODS OF
WARM UP... SO IMPACTS LOOK MINOR AT THE MOMENT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
AN ICE STORM OR A MAJOR SNOW STORM AT THE MOMENT. STAY WEATHER AWARE
AND CHECK BACK FREQUENTLY FOR UPDATES.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  22  32  12  28 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK         23  33  12  26 /  10  10  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  25  37  17  29 /   0  10  10  50
GAGE OK           17  28   8  21 /  10   0  20  40
PONCA CITY OK     19  30   8  26 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         24  35  18  30 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ004>025-027-033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

17/03/03


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