Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 260937
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
437 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
BIG PICTURE STILL SHOWS THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY TAKEAWAY IS THAT
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES DISCUSSED BELOW...
RESIDENTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TODAY
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES AND SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE MINUTIA OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN TIMING AND EVOLUTION
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST.

ON THE LARGE SCALE... THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE AND THE PRIMARY UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AT 00Z... WELL TIMED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE INSTABILITY WILL DEFINITELY
SUPPORT HIGH-END SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BUT THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS
REMAIN ABOUT SPECIFIC EVOLUTIONS. FIRST IS TIMING. ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE MAIN WAVE LOOKS REASONABLE... SATELLITE HAS SHOWN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING FROM EL PASO NORTHEAST TOWARD GUYMON
HINTING AT A FEATURE THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE RESOLVED BY THE
MODELS. WOULD REALLY LIKE TO SEE WIND PROFILER DATA AT THE OLD
WHITE SANDS AND TUCUMCARI PROFILER SITES TO SEE WHAT IS HAPPENING
HERE. BUT AS CLOUDS DEVELOP AND SATELLITE CAN BEGIN ESTIMATING
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS HERE...CURRENT GOES ESTIMATES ARE 70-85 KNOTS
AROUND 300 MB AND EVEN 70 KNOTS AROUND 500 MB... MUCH HIGHER THAN
PROGGED...SO DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY AFFECT FROM
THIS APPARENT ENHANCEMENT ARE RESOLVED IN ANY WAY BY THE MODELS.
THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT IF THIS WILL SUPPORT AN EARLIER
INITIAL WAVE OF DEVELOPMENT AND IF SO... HOW WILL THAT AFFECT THE
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS TOO EARLY IN THIS
PACKAGE... BUT WILL CLOSELY WATCH EVOLUTION. ON THE OTHER SIDE...
WITH A RELATIVELY STOUT CAPPING INVERSION... THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATER AS WELL.

SECOND QUESTION IS TORNADO POTENTIAL. LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR CERTAINLY SUPPORT TORNADOES TODAY. BUT AGAIN LOOKING AT
THE DETAILS... MOST FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW A VEEING/BACKING/
VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WHICH IS NOT NECESSARILY CONDUCIVE TO
LONG-LIVED TORNADIC STORMS.

BUT AGAIN WHILE IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THESE UNCERTAINTIES FROM
A FORECAST PERSPECTIVE... THE BIG PICTURE REMAINS THE SAME THAT
SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-END
SEVERE STORMS /ESPECIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL/ AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

MOVING FORWARD... THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY LINGER
IN THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE MOVING OUT. STORM
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS WITH A WARM
FRONT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS STATES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT STORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  .26.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  56  79  51 /  40  40  10   0
HOBART OK         85  51  79  50 /  20  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  84  55  83  53 /  40  20  10   0
GAGE OK           85  48  74  44 /  10  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     81  56  78  49 /  40  60  10   0
DURANT OK         81  62  84  57 /  30  80  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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