Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 120435 AAB
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1035 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

.AVIATION...
12/06Z TAFS. VFR conditions will prevail with mainly light
east/southeast winds the next 24 hours. A more southerly and
slightly strong wind will be seen over far western Oklahoma
terminals after 16Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 504 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018/

..Updated Aviation Discussion...

AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs:

Generally light winds tonight are not expected to be impactful to
aviation, although they will veer with time becoming more
northeasterly and eventually easterly. Stronger winds at around
10-15 knots at most sites from the southeast are expected by
tomorrow afternoon. Departing cirrus will give us a brief period
of SKC before another batch of cirrus (currently seen in GOES-16
visible satellite over southern New Mexico) arrives later tonight,
followed by more cirrus late tomorrow. VFR conditions will
prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Mid and high cloud cover this afternoon will gradually
move east of the area though early evening. With mainly
clear conditions and lighter winds, another cold night
is in store.

Cold surface high pressure building southward into the
northern Plains today, will generally move east and southeast
through Monday night. The circulation around the high will bring
east and southeast winds through about Tuesday afternoon.
Therefore, Monday and Tuesday will be cool, before much warmer
temperatures return Wednesday into Thursday.

As the flow becomes southerly, higher dewpoint air will return to
Oklahoma and north Texas Tuesday night and especially Wednesday.
The return in moisture will also coincide with an increase in
low clouds and a risk of fog Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning.

With very warm and breezy conditions expected during the afternoon
Wednesday and Thursday, elevated fire weather conditions may
develop. This will mainly be across western Oklahoma and part of
western north Texas where humidity will likely be between 20 and
30 percent.

Models (operational GFS/ECMWF) are in better agreement today in
pushing a strong cold front across Oklahoma and north Texas
Thursday night into Friday. A little early to go too cold on
Friday, but there will be an opportunity of winter precipitation
behind the front Thursday night into Friday. For now will go with
rain or snow. Precipitation chances will linger into Saturday. Yet
another strong cold front may arrive around Monday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  18  46  28  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         17  46  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  20  49  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           14  42  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     13  44  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         22  50  31  50 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/11



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