Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 162329
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR BR MAY DEVELOP IN THE 10Z TO 15Z
TIMEFRAME...AS WINDS GO LIGHT TO CALM. SOME BKN MVFR CIGS MAY ALSO
REDEVELOP AT KPNC...NORTH OF THE LINGERING FRONT. WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY SHIFT TO A MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...BECOMING GUSTY BY 15Z TO 16Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND VARIOUS WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM FOR MID-
SEPTEMBER.

THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT APPEARS TO BE A STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FURTHER...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE...AND THAT THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN ITS MAIN EFFECTS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE...HOWEVER...ON THE EXIT STRATEGY OF THE
STORM. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA LONG ENOUGH TO
GENERATE HUGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO
ADVANCE THE STORM...RESULTING IN LESS EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
OUR FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...AND WE CERTAINLY HOPE THIS IS
THE MORE CORRECT OUTCOME...SINCE THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN SERIOUS FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
HOBART OK         68  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  90  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
GAGE OK           65  91  65  90 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     66  89  67  89 /  10  10  20  20
DURANT OK         69  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84


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