Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 042132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
332 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL DIG ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE SHORT
RANGE. MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET... WITH SEASONABLY NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BOTH SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDINESS INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS COUPLED WITH LOW RH
VALUES IN THE 30S WILL ALSO ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY.  THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING FROM OUT OF THE WEST... AND WILL
PUSH A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH AS WELL. ALTHOUGH GFS
KEEPS US DRY... THE ECMWF AS WELL AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE NAM
RUNS BRING IN PREFRONTAL QPF ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA... ALTHOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP POPS AT 20 FOR NOW.
LIGHT COLD RAIN MAY DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA... BUT DISSIPATING BY THE TIME THE FREEZING
AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN. HOWEVER... THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO A FEW SNOW FLAKES
BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE MORNING... SO WILL MAINTAIN A RAIN SNOW
MIX IN THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THERE. THE 1000-850 MB LAYER
THICKNESS FIELDS KEEPS THE REALLY COLD AIR UP IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS... SO EXPECT TEMPERATES TO REBOUND QUICKLY TO SEASONABLE
FOR SATURDAY.

A SECOND BUT MUCH DEEPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTH WILL DIG THROUGH
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... ALONG WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.  SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LARGER SYSTEM... BUT EXPECTING NO PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING MONDAY MORNING TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE BLENDED
MODEL OUTPUT... SO ADJUSTED THE MIN GRIDS SLIGHTLY COOLER TO
REFLECT THIS. THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
ALSO REMAIN DRY... WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP AND SEASONABLY NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  54  30  54 /   0   0  10   0
HOBART OK         29  53  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  58  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           24  49  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  54  27  52 /   0   0  20   0
DURANT OK         30  54  34  55 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/68


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