Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 030555
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING TUESDAY. AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST
MVFR CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OTHER AREAS TUESDAY EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
WENT WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT SOUTHEAST
OF A KNOX CITY TEXAS TO PONCA CITY LINE. MADE VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO ALL HOURLY ELEMENTS.

DISCUSSION...
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE IS
THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATED VISIBILITIES 3 MILES OR LESS
ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE WITH ADA REPORTING
1/4 MILE. ALSO...LATEST RADARS INDICATED SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE
OCCURRING IN THESE FOGGY AREAS.

FOR NOW...WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THINKING LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL STAY JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING AND KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WE
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR AS THERE IS CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AND EXPANSION. THE DRIZZLE MAY GET HEAVIER SOUTHEAST OF A WAURIKA
TO SHAWNEE LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
HRRR RUNS.

BLACKWELL AND NEWKIRK IN KAY COUNTY OKLAHOMA WERE THE ONLY TWO
MESONET STATIONS IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BELOW FREEZING AT 31
DEGREES AS OF 845 PM WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND DECREASING
VISIBILITIES. THINK TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT
FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS.

WITH A SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF DRIZZLE WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...BUT WILL MENTION A CHANCE AT
LAW/SPS/OKC/OUN OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SOME FOG...MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 2-3SM. WINDS WILL VEER AHEAD OF A STRONG
FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A BETTER CHANCE OF SUNSHINE
AND VFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST ARE CENTERED ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND FOG. VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS MAY FALL TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES WHERE
MORE DENSE FOG DEVELOPS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...RELATIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS MAY FINALLY CLIMB
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS. BUT DONT BE FOOLED!
OLD MAN WINTER IS SET TO REVISIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT SURGES SOUTH...REACHING CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...AND MOVING SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER BY MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH HANGING BACK TO THE WEST...PLENTY OF
LIFT WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO FREEZING RAIN...TO
SLEET...AND FINALLY SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO OCCUR RELATIVELY QUICKLY...IDEALLY
PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SOUTH AND EAST OF I-44. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH
PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...FROM
WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A HALF INCH LOOK
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET/AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON ROADS...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. AS THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES OR WATCHES FOR NOW...BUT AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A NOTED WARMING TREND IS ALSO FORECAST...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY THE
WEEKEND.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  59  26  28 /  20  20  50  60
HOBART OK         36  61  25  29 /  10  10  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  66  33  34 /  20  30  60  60
GAGE OK           36  54  20  26 /  10  10  50  60
PONCA CITY OK     33  53  23  28 /  20  20  30  50
DURANT OK         39  61  36  37 /  30  40  60  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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