Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 231350
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
850 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated pops and slowed diurnal warming trend this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers/storms continue to move east with a new area of storms
that developed just east of OKC/Norman. Have updated short-term
pops with the latest trends in radar and satellite. HRRR/RAP and
various hi-res models show redevelopment before 18z across
northwest and central Oklahoma so have adjusted late morning pops
to account for this possibility. And made significant changes to
the hourly temperatures and dewpoints given the cloud cover will
keep temperatures cooler this morning and the post-convective
worked over airmass keeping dewpoints lower. Still expect we will
see eventual recovery to forecast highs, but it will likely take
some time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
A few thunderstorms remain near SPS and OKC/OUN early this
morning, and may continue for a couple more hours. Otherwise,
expect MVFR cigs to return late this morning for a few terminals
before becoming VFR by this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected again tonight, mainly after 00Z. Confidence in timing
is not exceptional, however, so expect some amendments/changes to
future TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An MCS continues its track across southern OK and north TX early
this morning. Very heavy rainfall and damaging winds accompanied
it earlier, and are still expected across southern OK through the
early morning hours. Most of this activity should move out of our
area near or before sunrise. Later this afternoon storms will
initiate along the dryline again from the southeastern TX
panhandle into western and northwestern OK, and move east during
the evening hours. Supercells will be likely, with ALL severe
weather threats possible. The highest rainfall totals are again
expected over western and southwestern OK, and western north TX.
These areas already received a significant amount of rainfall this
morning so we have decided to issue a Flood Watch thru early Wed
AM.

The overall forecast has changed very little for the work week.
The severe threat will continue to shift slowly east each day
with the dryline and approaching upper trough. The tornado threat
should also increase during the late afternoon and early evening
hours with the onset of the LLJ, especially across western and
southwestern OK by Tue. There may be a break in COVERAGE Wednesday with
surface convergence becoming a bit more diffuse along the
dryline. However, if any isolated supercells can manage to develop
they will again be capable of producing ALL severe weather
threats.

By Thursday, a southern stream mid to upper level shortwave trough
is expected to lift over northeast TX and into SE OK around mid
day. Heavy rainfall and embedded supercells will be possible with
this activity. Further west, the upper trough will begin to near
the southern plains with rapid height falls and increasing mid to
upper flow expected over the dryline across western OK.
Widespread severe weather continues to appear possible thru
Thursday night, including the threat of tornadoes. Finally, by
Friday, the upper trough will being to lift northeastward but will
not pass overhead until late Friday night. Additional severe
weather will remain possible from along/just west of I35 through
eastern OK.

Additional storm chances are expected through the weekend and into
early next week as another upper trough moves over the western
CONUS and WSW flow aloft ahead of it continues over the Southern
Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  67  83  68 /  30  40  20  50
Hobart OK         83  68  87  69 /  20  50  50  40
Wichita Falls TX  84  69  87  71 /  20  50  30  30
Gage OK           89  67  91  64 /  30  40  20  30
Ponca City OK     81  68  83  69 /  40  40  20  50
Durant OK         83  70  83  70 /  80  50  20  40

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-044-045.

TX...Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$


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