Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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778
FXUS64 KOUN 202126
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
326 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast focus is on near-critical fire weather conditions
Thursday.

Currently and through this afternoon, the broken to overcast low
stratus deck will continue to slowly shift eastward as the elongated
surface trough continues to push across the southern plains. West
and northwest winds will increase behind this boundary, breezy
through sunset, primarily across northwestern Oklahoma.

Overnight, the general consensus is the stretched 500mb short wave
trough will begin to strengthen and cutoff as it exits and lifts
eastward over the ARKLATEX. This is primarily due to the
strengthening positively tilted 500mb ridge developing from the Baja
to the northern high plains. In response, this will result in a
gradual return of southwesterly warm air advection off the Llano
Estacado and western high plains into Tuesday afternoon. Northerly
flow will remain in place across most of Oklahoma through Tuesday,
but a shift to southwesterly winds in the far northwest and western
Oklahoma is expected through the afternoon. Therefore, given
downslope enhancement, increased temperatures in northwestern
Oklahoma a few degrees, with highs topping out in the upper 70s
instead of mid 70s.

.FIRE WEATHER...
With this transition to southwesterly flow and the slow push of
the ridge eastward through wednesday, warm, dry air will continue
to advect off the west Texas plains and across Oklahoma, resulting
in elevated fire weather conditions through the week. Conditions
on Thursday will be the focus, as a surface trough pushes in from
the northwest into the afternoon, resulting in gusty southwest
winds ahead of the front across western Oklahoma into north Texas.
Expect sustained winds to reach 15 to 20 mph gusting around 35
mph for several hours through the afternoon. In combination with
winds, relative humidity values will dip into the mid teens and
high temperatures will range from the upper 80s nearing 90 across
western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma to the upper 70s and
low 80s in northwestern Oklahoma. This will result in Near
Critical to possibly Critical Fire weather conditions for portions
of western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Rainfall from last
night will help fuels, as is reflected by the latest ERC-G values,
which have dipped below average, between 30 and 40, however, with
two full days of southwesterly flow, and regions still under a
drought, will likely see these values crawl back to around 50 or
so before Thursday. Fire weather conditions on Friday will remain
elevated. This primarily responsible because of breezy northwest
winds that will preceed the surface trough through the day as the
parent 500 mb short wave swings across the central plains.
Temperatures will be much cooler and relative humidity values will
be higher, but winds will remain gusty.


Next weekend, trimmed back rain chances for Sunday. Decent agreement
between long range solutions continues to lend confidence to lower
precipitation chances, primarily Sunday night across far western
Oklahoma, as the southern plains remains under a zonal flow regime
through the weekend.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  44  73  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         41  75  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  45  73  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           35  76  42  82 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     43  73  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         49  73  47  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/04



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