Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 251745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

The May 25-26, 2017 18 UTC TAF discussion follows:


Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities are expected to continue
through at least this evening with gusty, southerly winds. Low-
level wind shear is expected to increase after 03Z as a veered
55-60 knot low-level jet develops across western north Texas into
central Oklahoma. Greatest confidence of >30 knots of wind shear
will be from KSPS to KLAW to KOKC/KOUN. Strongest winds are
expected at 1500-2000 ft AGL.

A cold front is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma after
midnight, and will progress southeastward through all terminals
(except KSPS) Friday morning. Winds will gradually shift to the
west and then the northwest as the front passes by. At least
temporarily MVFR ceilings will be possible behind the front.
Greatest confidence for flight restrictions is across northern
Oklahoma (KGAG/KWWR/KPNC).



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1118 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

Temperatures have already warmed into the lower 90s across
parts of west Texas late this morning. Very hot to very warm
temperatures can be expected this afternoon, especially across far
southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. Near surface moisture
will continue to increase during the afternoon, with lower 60
dewpoint returning to the eastern half of Oklahoma by late

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

12Z TAFs.

VFR conditions will prevail with only mid/high clouds expected
through the forecast period. Winds will be gusty from the south
today. Towards the end of the period, a cold front will settle
into northern Oklahoma shifting the winds to northwest at KGAG,
KWWR and perhaps KPNC, and a dryline will move into western
Oklahoma shifting winds to southwesterly at KCSM, KHBR and perhaps

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

It is starting to get hot out there. Temperatures will be
significantly warmer across the area today, but especially in the
southwest where we will likely see triple digit temperatures in
north Texas near and west of US-283 where downslope winds develop.

Beyond today, things get more complex. Models are now bring the
cold front farther south tomorrow than yesterday morning`s runs.
And again a dryline pushes west across north Texas and southern
Oklahoma. The from will bring somewhat cooler (but still warm) air
into the north while it will bake again in the southwest ahead of
the front and behind the dryline. Again, confidence is not very
high on specific locations of these boundaries tomorrow given the
relative subtle forcing. But the other issue is precipitation
chances. Storms will likely develop on the high plains with
upslope low-level winds north of the boundary, and we could see
some of these storms move into northwest Oklahoma. We also see a
highly conditional chance of storms developing in the southeast
near the front and/or dryline. There is a lot of uncertainty about
storm development southeast given the lack of significant forcing
and the unknown quality of low-level moisture return given the
last front did scour out Gulf dewpoints. The model solutions of
mid- upper 70s dewpoints seems to be quite generous given the
current condition of the Gulf, so some of the extreme instability
values forecast are very likely too high. But very high
instability is still expected and CIN values will still be
relatively low. So there is a very conditional threat of severe
storms in the southeast tomorrow and tomorrow evening -
precipitation chances are relatively low, but if storms go, they
will go big.

Some complexity and uncertainty extends into Saturday, mainly
surrounding positions of the surface features. But overall, there
will be one additional day of moisture advection and a more
defined shortwave with which to contend, so storm chances and
severe weather risk likely will be higher. Again, we could see
some storms northwest coming off the high plains, and higher
chances of storms near the front and dryline Saturday afternoon
and Saturday night. Storms may linger near the front in the south
into Sunday.

After Sunday, the area remains under the influence of northwest
flow aloft and the potential for storms to move off the central
high plains toward the area. /..speg.


Oklahoma City OK  87  66  90  67 /   0   0  10  10
Hobart OK         93  61  93  64 /   0   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  96  73  99  70 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           93  59  85  60 /   0   0  10  20
Ponca City OK     84  62  87  66 /   0   0  10  10
Durant OK         88  70  94  73 /   0   0  10  20




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