Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 291617 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA. THIS
AREA WILL CONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT IS A CHAOTIC MESS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY. HEATING IS OCCURRING IN THE PANHANDLE AND A SFC
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT THERE SO STORMS COULD
DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND MOVE INTO THE FA THIS AFTN/EVENING. ALSO
NOTING THAT SOME THIN SPOTS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IN THE FA... SO HEATING MAY CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP AS WELL. EVENTUALLY A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FRONT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST IN THE HIGH
PLAINS COULD ALSO DEVELOP INTO AN MCS THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. LIKE I SAID A CHAOTIC MESS. OVERALL... SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY JUST WHERE AND WHEN IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT THE
BIGGEST CONCERN ONCE AGAIN WILL BE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH
FLOODING/FLOODING.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE POPS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS AND TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AND EAST PARTS OF THE CWA FOR THIS
AFTN. HAVE ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO
SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES COULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS. WILL LIKELY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS BOTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT... HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
RISK AND IMPACT ACROSS THE AREA.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN ON
SATURDAY AND THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN A DRIER AIRMASS. THIS ALONG
WITH RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BRING AND END TO THE PRECIP FOR A WHILE
AT LEAST. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL END THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT
EARLIER AS WELL. WILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO END AT 7 PM SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY... MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  62  73  57 /  20  70  30   0
HOBART OK         80  60  74  54 /  30  70  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  64  77  58 /  20  70  40  10
GAGE OK           79  55  72  50 /  30  40  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  60  73  54 /  30  70  10   0
DURANT OK         80  65  76  60 /  70  70  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

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