Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 230348
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1048 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue until 240600 with south
winds gusting more Friday afternoon, especially in western
Oklahoma. Mid-level clouds will start to increase from the south
and west later in the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 740 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue until 232400 with south
winds gusting more Friday afternoon, especially in western
Oklahoma.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
One more seasonably warm to hot day is expected tomorrow as the
591 dam mid-level ridge shifts eastward in response to an
approaching high-amplitude trough.

Significant mid-level height falls and associated ascent will
spread across the Southern Plains by early Saturday. In response,
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday into
Sunday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms--with the threat for
gusty winds--will be possible Saturday afternoon with progged
MLCAPE/instability ~2000 J/kg.

However, heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard--especially
late Saturday into Sunday as a cold front progresses through the
region. Progged precipitable water values of 1.8-2.0" (around
climatological maximum) and warm cloud depths >10,000 ft indicate
that thunderstorms will be efficient at producing rainfall.

Beyond Sunday, there continues to be uncertainty on the evolution
of the trough. The ECMWF/12Z develops a cut-off low that would
maintain a chance of showers through at least Tuesday. This
solution is similar to the 00Z run from last night. In
comparison, the GFS is fairly progressive with the trough. For
now, opted to slowly taper shower chances with seasonably cool
temperatures through early next week.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  90  71  87 /   0   0  20  50
Hobart OK         67  91  72  86 /   0   0  20  60
Wichita Falls TX  69  92  73  89 /   0  10  20  50
Gage OK           67  90  70  86 /   0   0  30  50
Ponca City OK     68  91  72  88 /   0   0  20  50
Durant OK         68  92  72  90 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/09/09



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