Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 081939
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
239 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CURRENTLY... 19Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE LEADING WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR NW OK/SE KS THROUGH W/NW OK INTO THE TXPH. AN ILL-
DEFINED FRONT... IT`S ALSO FAIRLY SHALLOW... AS SHOWN BY CROSS
SECTIONS THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM KOKC THIS AFTN
SHOW THE CAP CONTINUES TO HOLD ON... WITH 800-700MB TEMPS OF 10 TO
16 C. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT
BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS WELL ELEVATED... NEAR 12000 FT. HOWEVER...
CONTINUE TO GET SOME LIGHT RETURNS OFF KVNX ACROSS FAR NW OK INTO
SRN KS/NW TXPH... THOUGH GIVEN TEMP/DPT SPREADS... IT`S UNLIKELY
MUCH... IF ANY... PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND.

FOR THIS AFTN/TONIGHT... TRIMMED BACK PRECIP/WX A TOUCH... AS
ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN LIKELY AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO NRN TX... BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION IS LOW AT THE MOMENT. OVERALL...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE
TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND PARTS OF NRN TX. AS ALWAYS...
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON UPDRAFTS/CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NWRN OK... AS ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD POSE A RATHER STOUT
WIND THREAT THIS AFTN.

OVERNIGHT... AS THE H500 TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND LIFT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES... THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTH...
PROVIDING CONTINUED LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL INTO NRN OK. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/NE AND WANE DURING THE DAY ON
WED INTO EARLY THU.

ON THE ERN CONUS TROUGH`S HEELS... STRONG RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE ROCKIES FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE... TEMPS WILL SOAR BACK INTO THE UPPER
90S TO LOWER 100S FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER... THERE IS
POSSIBLY A SILVER LINING... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS... FORCING A DECENT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. HOWEVER... IT IS JULY... SO LETS NOT HANG OUR HAT ON THIS
SOLUTION JUST YET.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  91  72  95 /  30  20  20  10
HOBART OK         70  94  73  99 /  30  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  97  76  99 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           64  92  71  98 /  30  20  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     65  90  69  94 /  20  10  30  30
DURANT OK         75  96  74  96 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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