Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 062325
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
AT 23Z...A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TSRA EXTENDED FROM BETWEEN
KPNC AND KICT TO KWWR. THIS LINE OF TSRA WILL ADVANCE SE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING 2-4 HOURS OF TSRA TO MOST TAF SITES BY 10Z
TONIGHT. AFTER THE INITIAL TSRA...WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL FILL IN
NEAR/N OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ROUGHLY FROM
KLTS-KCHK-KOUN-KSNL. THE RAIN TOMORROW WILL AFFECT MOST OF OK AND
N TX. A FEW TSRA WILL ALSO OCCUR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO
FEW/FAR BETWEEN TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS. BY
AFTERNOON...+SHRA WILL LIKELY COVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM KSPS TO
KOKC...BRINGING CEILINGS DOWN TO ROUGHLY 500-800 FT. OUTSIDE THIS
AREA...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE LESS INTENSE...AND PERHAPS LESS
EXTENSIVE.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY PRODUCING OUTFLOW THAT WILL MOVE OUT AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTION. A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL FAVOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT...AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO IT THIS
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...AND WARM MOIST AIR IS FORCED NORTH OVER THE
COOLER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEMS WEAKEN OVER US...AND WILL DISAPPEAR ENTIRELY BY THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TAKING OVER. AS IS USUAL...THIS
WILL BRING HOT WEATHER BACK TO NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
AND...WITH THE EXTREMELY WET GROUND...HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER
HIGH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DAYTIME
HEATING THAT CAN OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  78  63  80 /  60  80  80  50
HOBART OK         68  75  62  84 /  80  90  70  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  83  64  85 /  50  80  80  60
GAGE OK           61  72  59  81 /  90  70  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     64  76  63  78 /  90  70  70  40
DURANT OK         74  87  69  85 /  20  40  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ005>042-
     044>046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/23/23


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