Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 280257
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
857 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE
FREEZING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE... THIS TURKEY DAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE A
GOOD ONE... UNDER SUNNY SKIES... HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE WRN HALF OF OK TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR 60 ACROSS TEXOMA AND WRN N
TX. WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO SLIDE TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING... S/SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS WRN OK THROUGH AM FRI. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

OVERALL... MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARM UP IS STILL EXPECTED... AS THE H500 RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BROADEN FRI... WITH LL WINDS PERSISTING OUT OF THE S/SW THRU SUN.
HIGHS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE 60S FRI... WITH SAT THE WARMEST...
INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. LOCATIONS ACROSS WRN N TX MAY
APPROACH THE UPPER 70S.

WITH WARMER TEMPS... BREEZY S/SW WINDS... RH VALUES IN THE 30S AND
20S... AND A HISTORY OF MINOR GRASS FIRES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTN-SUN. PLEASE BE TAKE
CARE IF BURNING AND DISPOSE OF CIGARETTES PROPERLY. FROM ACTIVITY
NOTED TODAY... MULTIPLE HOT SPOTS ON IR... FUELS APPEAR TO BE PRIMED.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT SUN... A HEFTY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE AFTN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE... AND WAA WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO BRIEFLY
HIT THE 70S ACROSS TEXOMA TO 60S ACROSS CENTRAL OK... WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NRN OK. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT... TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S ACROSS NRN OK TO THE 40S
ACROSS TEXOMA MON AM.

BEYOND MONDAY... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GO OUT OF PHASE
QUICKLY... WITH STARK CONTRASTS... PRIMARILY STARTING WED... BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. ADDING TO THE ISSUE... RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
FROM EACH HAS BEEN HIT OR MISS. THE MAIN ISSUE APPEARS TO BE EACH
SOLUTIONS HANDLING OF THE H500 PAC SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
CUT IT OFF OVER THE PAC... HALTING ITS PROGRESS... DEVELOPING A
BRIEF REX BLOCK FROM SRN ALASKA SOUTH ON TUE... WITH SOME SUPPORT
FROM THE CANADIAN FOR THIS SOLUTION. IN RESPONSE... THIS SLOWS THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
FOLDS IT INTO THE GREATER SYNOPTIC FLOW... PULLING IT ACROSS THE
PACNW THRU WED EVE/THU AM. EVEN WITH SUCH VARIABILITY... FEEL
RELATIVELY CONFIDENT IN KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS THE GFS RETURNS NEGLIGIBLE MOISTURE AND THE ECMWF INTRODUCES A
SHALLOW RIDGE OVER THE REGION.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  63  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         37  64  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  68  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           35  71  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     37  62  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         37  64  51  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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