Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 251749
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1249 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
All terminals are expected to remain under VFR conditions through
the afternoon. With a sharp dryline in place across the Texas
panhandle, and very moist and unstable air ahead of the dryline,
some TSRA could develop mainly across our southwest toward 00z.
However, a weak inversion cap may inhibit the TSRA development, so
there is some uncertainty. However, if any convection should
develop, they would be rather isolated but severe in intensity. As
a result, tempos are in the forecast for our terminals in
southwest Oklahoma and north Texas. If TSRA develop, ceilings as
well as visibilities could reduce to MVFR for a short period of
time, or even briefly to IFR conditions under the storms.
Otherwise, sfc winds will remain southerly through the entire
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/
The 12Z aviation discussion follows....
There is a lot of uncertainty regarding development of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms today, as a weak mid-level wave
passes over Oklahoma, where strong instability will be in place
again. It appears that convection, if it happens, will be much
more isolated than in the past couple of days. Ceilings will be
all over the place this morning. There will be areas of
essentially clear skies, alternating with MVFR and even marginally
IFR conditions. This should become SCT to BKN at 3500 feet or
higher by afternoon. Another layer of stratus with ceilings in
the 1500 to 2500 foot range will likely stream north into north
Texas and much of Oklahoma late tonight.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/
The chance for showers and thunderstorms today and tonight will be
quite a bit lower than it has been for a few days. Flow aloft will
be less conducive for widespread convection, and at this point,
it appears that any storms that might develop this afternoon or
early evening will be isolated. However, with plenty of
instability available, any storms that do develop will have a
good chance of becoming severe.
A couple of upper-level shortwave troughs will enter the southern
Plains Thursday and again on Friday. This will amplify the risk of
storms once again, and rain chances will again climb into the
chance category. Severe storms appear likely on Thursday, mainly
over western Oklahoma.
Shortwave ridging aloft will temporarily reduce the convection
late Friday night into Saturday, but it won`t be held down long.
More moisture will flow back into north Texas and Oklahoma on
Sunday, and rain chances dutifully climb again.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 87 71 84 64 / 20 20 40 50
Hobart OK 91 70 87 65 / 20 10 40 30
Wichita Falls TX 90 72 87 64 / 20 10 60 60
Gage OK 93 63 89 60 / 10 10 30 20
Ponca City OK 89 72 86 66 / 20 20 40 40
Durant OK 85 71 81 67 / 20 20 50 60