Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 291145
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THIS EVENING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
THE STORMS...MAY IMPACT GAG/WWR AFTER 5/6Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK WAA THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS OF FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THIS EVENING...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGH PW`S NEAR 2 INCHES AND A MODERATE LEVEL JET WILL
RESULT IN STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR A
DEVELOPING ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL END ON THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FA WILL REMAIN
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  68  76  65 /  20  60  90  70
HOBART OK         85  66  83  66 /  40  60  60  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  70  88  68 /  30  40  30  50
GAGE OK           82  64  74  62 /  40 100  80  50
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  72  64 /  10  60  90  40
DURANT OK         90  72  81  66 /  20  30  50  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-022>025-027>029-040.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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