Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 191142 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
19/12Z TAFS...WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF FORECAST VFR THIS ISSUANCE
ALTHOUGH CIGS EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE MVFR FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY AS MOISTURE IN THE 3 TO 6 KFT LAYER INCREASES FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KSPS NORTHEAST
TOWARD KOKC AND KPNC THIS MORNING. WILL CONFINE MENTION OF VCSH
TO KPNC. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE TOWARD AND AFTER
06Z AND MAINLY AFFECT KPNC DOWN TO KOKC/KOUN. WILL LEAVE MENTION
OF TSRA OUT FOR THIS FORECAST BUT WILL INCLUDE PROB30 FOR -SHRA
AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AS COMPACT
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL ALSO MENTION
SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING IN PART TO MENTION UPPER LOW. MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND PROVIDE
A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF STORM OR TWO MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL FOR RAIN IS
WEAK...IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN ALL MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF OKC.

BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
BUT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE UNLIKELY. ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE SIMILAR ON TIMING AND INITIAL IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE...DETAILS
DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAVE. DPROG/DT
WOULD INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF CWA FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  55  82  57 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         75  56  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  57  83  58 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           78  52  81  51 /   0  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     75  55  80  54 /  10  40  30  10
DURANT OK         74  53  80  58 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/99/11



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