Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 310327
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET FROM SHATTUCK AND WOODWARD THIS EVENING.
FARTHER NORTH...DDC HAS BEEN REPORTING SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS. DRY
AIR BELOW CLOUD BASE MAY RESULT IN MORE SLEET REPORTS AS INITIAL
PRECIPITATION FORMS/REACHES THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVELS MODIFY THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A COLD
RAIN.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE AROUND A
HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. AT THE PRESENT TIME...ANY CHANCE OF SNOW
LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER MAY HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION MAY END
BEFORE ANY TRANSITION OCCURS. EITHER WAY...NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

A STRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S. WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY COULD BE OVER 40 MPH.

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS...RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. IF
THE CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE GFS SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
OR SNOW FOR NOW. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY. THIS COOL DOWN LOOKS BRIEF...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  43  37  41 /  40  80  80  30
HOBART OK         36  42  36  44 /  60  90  70  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  45  41  47 /  30  90  80  20
GAGE OK           34  42  32  38 /  60  70  60  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  43  34  38 /  40  80  80  30
DURANT OK         38  48  42  49 /  10  50  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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