Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 211154
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
654 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.AVIATION...
A cold front, currently located across northern Oklahoma,
will push slowly southward today into this evening. North
and northeast winds can be expected behind the front.  By this
afternoon and evening, MVFR ceilings will begin to develop.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
For today, a cold front will continue a slow southward push across
central and southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Models vary
a little on the exact timing of the associated wind shift and
daytime highs.  Overall, a cooler day is in store for northern
Oklahoma, while southern Oklahoma and north Texas will need help from
the AC.

Post frontal clouds will develop later this afternoon, and
especially this evening and overnight. Rather warm temperatures
above this cloud layer will limit/prevent thunderstorm
development. Mid to high clouds are expected to increase tonight
through early Wednesday. This may result in a few light showers,
similar to weak radar returns over Seminole this morning. It
appears better chances for elevated convection will be northeast
of the forecast tonight into Wednesday.

Although a mid level ridge axis will be over the southern Plains
Wednesday and Wednesday night, clouds and an easterly wind will
result in near average temperatures for most of Oklahoma. The
exception may be far southern Oklahoma, closer to a stalled
frontal boundary.

Surface winds will become rather strong and gusty on Thursday as
surface low pressure deepens over eastern Colorado. Frequent wind
gusts near 40 mph plus can be expected by Thursday afternoon.
At least scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the Panhandles late Thursday afternoon and
evening, as a strong trough approaches. Although timing will
not be ideal, strong forcing should result in scattered showers
and thunderstorms across at least western Oklahoma and perhaps
adjacent areas of north Texas. By early Friday afternoon,
thunderstorm intensity should increase as a dryline pushes across
the eastern half of Oklahoma. Strong to severe storms are
possible, especially across the eastern third of the state.

Another trough will move across the southern and central Plains
on Sunday. Scattered showers and storms are possible along with
a chance of strong to severe storms. Storm chances will increase
again late Monday into Tuesday ahead of another system.

Fire Weather...
Today...
Rather hot and dry conditions are expected ahead of a cold front
today, especially across western north Texas and perhaps part of
southern Oklahoma. The main mitigating factor this afternoon will
be winds below 20 mph. Breezy winds north of the front should
experience relatively high humidity.

Thursday...
A strong southerly flow with frequent gusts near/above 40 mph.
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will result, but
afternoon humidity is expected to remain at or above 30 percent.

Friday...
Critical fire weather conditions are certainly possible Friday
afternoon, as a dryline pushes into central Oklahoma. Afternoon
humidity is expected to fall to or below 20 percent across
western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Strong wind gusts
are also expected too. A Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning may
be required.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  80  51  65  56 /   0  20  30  30
Hobart OK         77  49  68  54 /   0  10  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  87  56  78  58 /   0   0  10  10
Gage OK           69  43  62  49 /   0  20  10  20
Ponca City OK     71  46  57  52 /   0  20  20  30
Durant OK         85  60  75  58 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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