Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
390 FXUS64 KOUN 120025 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 725 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 A lead shortwave trough is resulting in an area of showers and embedded thunderstorms across the Texas panhandle into western north Texas/southwest Oklahoma. Rain will move to the east- northeast in tandem with the shortwave trough. However, with a dry subcloud layer, rain should gradually decrease in coverage with northeast extent this evening. A mid/upper-level low will slowly move eastward across Kansas Sunday into Sunday night in tandem with a mid-level jet associated with the subtropical jet. Both features will be associated with synoptic-scale ascent across the Southern Plains. The ascent will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms that will move eastward during the day Sunday. While cloud cover should significantly limit solar insolation and attendant surface-based instability, there is the potential for hail with the most intense cores from elevated instability. By late afternoon, there might be sufficient solar insolation in the wake of the earlier convection for surface-based instability east of the dryline across the Texas panhandle. If this occurs, more robust convection is possible in this area, which could move eastward into western Oklahoma and north Texas late afternoon into the evening hours. Large hail will the primary hazard and damaging wind gusts the secondary hazard (especially if there is some upscale growth of any convection). Any convection should decrease in intensity during the evening with decreasing instability with eastward extent. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Given the slow eastward movement of the upper-level low, wrap- round rain chances will continue into Monday--especially across the eastern half of the area. There should be a lull in rain on Tuesday as mid-level heights rise as the mid/upper-level low moves toward the Midwest. The lull will be brief as another trough approaches the Southern Plains late Wednesday into Thursday with widespread rainfall expected. While it`s too early for specifics, elevated instability and shear appear sufficient for some severe weather potential. Dry conditions are expected in the wake of the system by Friday. Mahale && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 722 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Scattered showers will move across the area this evening, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected initially. Lower clouds and MVFR ceilings will increase Sunday morning and another couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms will affect the area on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 59 71 60 76 / 20 80 90 40 Hobart OK 57 71 57 78 / 50 80 80 20 Wichita Falls TX 61 72 62 81 / 40 90 50 10 Gage OK 54 72 52 75 / 70 90 80 30 Ponca City OK 59 74 59 74 / 20 70 100 70 Durant OK 61 72 64 82 / 20 70 60 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...26