000
FXUS64 KOUN 250328
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1028 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms will move across south central and southeast
Oklahoma through the night. New thunderstorms are expected to
form along a front in northwest Oklahoma before sunrise and move
south through the central Oklahoma during the morning and into
southern Oklahoma through the day Sunday. Gusty north winds will
follow the front. MVFR ceilings are expected in northern and
western Oklahoma behind the front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1001 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Updated the the chance of showers/storms overnight. Also updated
temperature/dewpoint/wind forecast based on current trends.

DISCUSSION...
One wave of showers/storms continues to progress eastward across
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas this evening. The
greatest flood threat will continue across this region, where the
thunderstorms have had very high rainfall rates (1-2+" per hour).
Farther north, into central and northern Oklahoma, the atmosphere
is more stable with an outflow cooled airmass in place.

It appears there will be a break in the precipitation before a
second wave of showers/storms develops in response to a cold front
that will move into northwest Oklahoma later tonight. Updated the
chance of precipitation overnight based on this trend.
Consequently, probabilities were decreased substantially across most
locations after 06Z.

Mahale

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 703 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
A broad line of thunderstorms will move across western and central
Oklahoma through the night tonight. New thunderstorms are expected
to form along a front in northwest Oklahoma before sunrise and
move south through the central Oklahoma during the morning and
into southern Oklahoma through the day Sunday. Gusty north winds
will follow the front. MVFR ceilings are expected in northern and
western Oklahoma behind the front.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Heavy rainfall will be main concern next 36hrs.

Large upper low over Wyoming/Colorado will continue to move
slowly east this afternoon into this evening before lifting
northeast into the Northern Plains tonight into Sunday. Models
still depicting a large piece of this low remaining behind,
retrograding and closing off somewhere near the baja tomorrow.

As this occurs, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop across Oklahoma and western north Texas. Although
overall wind fields will be rather weak, sufficient instability
will be present late today into this evening for a few strong to
perhaps severe storms across approximately the western half of
the CWA.

As the northern part of the upper low moves through the
Northern Plains, a cold front will push south through Oklahoma
into Texas during the day on Sunday. This will bring cooler and
drier air into the area, which will limit the rain/thunder to Red
River valley by Sunday night.

Drier and cooler air will then overspread the area, resulting in
a couple of pleasant and more fall-like days early in the week.
High temperatures Monday/Tuesday will only climb into the 70s
with nighttime temperatures dropping into the upper 40s and lower
50s by Tuesday morning.

The upper low over the baja is expected to lift northeast
through southern and central Rockies into the plains by late in
the week. This may result in a few showers across northwest
Oklahoma by late Thursday into Friday. Otherwise, temperatures
will warm back to into the low/mid 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  75  57  74 /  80  80  30  10
Hobart OK         67  74  57  73 /  70  80  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  70  78  59  74 /  90  90  50  30
Gage OK           61  71  50  75 /  50  30   0   0
Ponca City OK     67  73  53  75 /  90  70  10   0
Durant OK         71  84  63  77 /  80  70  40  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/09/09