037
FXUS64 KOUN 010230
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
930 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 930 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight south, but
  severe weather potential is decreasing.

- Low (10-30%) chances for isolated to scattered showers and
  storms continue through the week into the weekend.

- Humid conditions continue, with heat indices near 100 degrees
  most afternoons.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Convection continues to push southward, although a big area of
anvil precipitation has spread northeast across south central and
southeastern Oklahoma. Updated forecast to lower POPs north
overnight with the current trends and to update hourly temperature
grids due to the widespread area of rain-cooler air that has
spread across much of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Storms are expected to develop along an outflow boundary this
afternoon and evening, generally south of I-40. With sufficient
instability, high PWATs, and little wind shear (resulting in pulse
storms with little movement), downbursts and localized flooding will
again be the main risks with these storms, though some hail with the
stronger storms cannot be ruled out as well. This activity is
expected to shift south through the evening and dissipate overnight.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

By Tuesday morning, most of our rain chances will have shifted
southward leaving only low chances mainly across southern Oklahoma
and north Texas. Timing-wise, this would include any lingering
showers in the morning followed by any redevelopment in the
afternoon. That being said, most of the CAMs keep us dry all day.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be slightly cooler with highs primarily
in the upper 80s to low 90s (due to the passage of a cold front the
night before).

Temperatures start gradually warming back up on Wednesday. Ridging
will keep us mostly dry, though we will still maintain some low
chances for rain.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

The center of the upper ridge will reposition itself to our south
and east mid to late week, allowing for low chances of showers and
storms to continue through the end of week. A trough is forecast to
cross the area by the weekend, which may bring more widespread
shower and storm activity to the region, though models disagree
somewhat on the strength and timing of this trough. Temperatures
will remain near seasonal average through the end of the week,
generally in the upper 80s to low 90s, then warm into the mid to
upper 90s by the weekend.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

A line of convection, currently nearing the Red River, will offer
varied category potential (along with gusty winds) at
KSPS/KLAW/KDUA through about 03-04 UTC this evening. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period with a
modest north/northeast wind and mid/high clouds.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  87  70  89 /  20  10  20  20
Hobart OK         70  89  70  92 /  20  20  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  71  91  73  94 /  70  20  10  10
Gage OK           67  87  67  88 /  10  10  30  20
Ponca City OK     68  87  67  88 /   0   0  10  20
Durant OK         73  92  73  95 /  80  20   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...09