Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 080946
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
346 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SUBTLE CAA WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT`S MOVED
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS AM. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS OK THIS AFTERNOON. MEAN WINDS THROUGH
THE ML ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 TO 45 KT ACROSS CENTRAL OK
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR.
JUST WEST, ACROSS W AND NW OK, CIRROSTRATUS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY INHIBITING MIXING A BIT THERE.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR MOST
OF OK AND A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH TX. EXPECT A LONGER DURATION
OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS, AND STRONGER GUSTS, ALONG I35 THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BL
DECOUPLES.

NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THURS AS A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CAA THROUGH FRI
AM SINCE ITS DEEPER WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER RIGHT NOW SO LEANED CLOSER TO WARMER
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT (GFS/GEFS/ECMWF) ON MORE SIGNFICANT CAA IMPACTING
THE REGION SAT AM AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES AS A RESULT. POPS
WERE MOSTLY REMOVED FOR DAY 7 (SUN-MON AM) BUT DID LEAVE A SMALL
AREA OF SCHC IN FOR SE OK WHERE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS ENOUGH
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAA. OVERALL, THE FORECAST APPEARS
IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH AREA WIDE BY LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME
STRONGER SUSTAINED SPEEDS, AND GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. MINRH WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ALONG AND
WEST OF I35 BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FROM NE TO SW RESPECTIVELY. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX, HOWEVER, MAY BRIEFLY CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR WICHITA, CLAY, AND ARCHER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WHERE TEMPERATURE CRITERIA IS NOT REQUIRED. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS TO DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         52  30  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           50  27  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     45  27  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  32  55  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ086-089-090.

&&

$$

06/03


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