Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 231526
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1026 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

...Update...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Based on trends in the observations, we have adjusted the Heat
Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning. The emphasis for the most
dangerous heat has shifted south given relatively cool/dry outflow
from morning convection limiting potential for criteria to be met
across north-central Oklahoma. The northern end of the current
advisory/warning may still struggle to reach criteria and we will
monitor trends and make adjustments as needed.

Also made some adjustments to wind, precipitation probability,
and weather grids. Morning sounding modified for expected
afternoon temperatures shows a weakly sheared environment with
moderate instability. Single cells and multicells should become
fairly numerous later this afternoon, particularly near and south
of remnant outflow from morning convection where low-level
convergence is maximized. A hot well-mixed boundary layer with
min/max theta-e difference in the vertical of ~35k will support
downburst potential. Any severe wind gusts should be fairly
isolated and brief given weak effective shear and resultant short
life cycle of storms.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 528 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
A surface boundary across northern Oklahoma is expected to focus
scattered thunderstorms today. This boundary will move slowly
south and bring a chance for scattered thunderstorms into central
and southern Oklahoma overnight. Very gusty winds are expected
during the afternoon near thunderstorms. VFR conditions will exist
outside of storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The outflow boundary in northern Oklahoma along with a weak trough
to the northeast of Oklahoma will provide a focus for scattered
shower and thunderstorm development today and Monday. The boundary
will likely affect the northern half of Oklahoma today, although
a few storms could form most anywhere given the slight cooling
aloft with the upper trough in the Midwest. It will be extremely
hot and humid, and the surface boundary will allow surface
moisture to pool near it. The heat advisory and excessive heat
warning remain in effect for central and eastern Oklahoma today.
On Monday, the influence of the upper trough will still be to the
northeast of Oklahoma providing a similar, favorable atmosphere
along with the fading, but lingering surface boundary. Central and
southern Oklahoma may have a higher chance for rain and
thunderstorms than areas to the west. Because of the heat, gusty
winds will be likely with any storms today or Monday. Beyond
Monday, the upper ridge builds over Oklahoma once again bringing
very high temperatures and humidity once again during mid-week. A
break may arrive late Thursday or Friday when the upper flow
pattern gradually shifts to more north-south as the upper ridge
moves slightly to the west. A front could move into Oklahoma
Friday bringing rain and thunderstorms with it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 100  74  95  75 /  40  50  30  20
Hobart OK        100  74  97  75 /  30  30  20  10
Wichita Falls TX 100  75  98  75 /  30  30  20  10
Gage OK           96  70  96  72 /  40  40  20  20
Ponca City OK     97  72  95  74 /  40  40  20  20
Durant OK         97  75  94  75 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ019-020-025-026-
     028-029-040-041-046-047-050>052.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ030>032-042-043-048.

TX...None.
&&

$$

12/11


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