Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 141741
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS WILL SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS PREVAILING. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATE TO PRECIP FORECAST...

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL
OK... WITH AN AREA OF SNOW SLOWLY MOVING E/SE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OKC METRO. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED... OKDOT
TRAFFIC CAMS AND REPORTS VIA SOCIAL MEDIA SHOW LIGHT SNOW
FALLING... WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING NEAR 1 TO 1 1/2 MILES.
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT PATH OF SNOW... WITH -RA/SN
MIX POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE I-44/40 CORRIDOR... CONSIDERING
SFC/BL TEMPS AND RECENT 15Z OBS FROM KCSM AND KHBR... REPORTING
UNKNOWN PRECIP. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW BL TEMPS WARMING SLOWLY
THROUGH NOON... WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AS THE SFC HIGH ACROSS KS
CONTINUES TO SINK SWRD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. EFFECTS OF THIS ARE
ALREADY BEING SEEN ACROSS FAR NWRN OK.

PRECIP... SN... RA/SN WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE SFC HIGH... WHERE
A DECENT REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT RESIDES WITHIN THE 290-295K
LEVEL... SYNONYMOUS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE WITHIN THE 850 TO 700
MB LEVEL. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH NOON...
AS THE H500 TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK EWRD AND THE SFC HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE REGION THIS AFTN.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NRN HALF OF OK THIS AM.
CIG/VSBYS MAY DROP TO IFR BRIEFLY AT NRN SITES AS THE HEAVIER PRCP
MOVES THROUGH. PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY AFTN. STRONG N WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER
30 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY
EARLY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SNOW FROM TX PANHANDLE INTO NW CORNER OF THE FA CONTINUES
TO MOVE STEADILY EWD. SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS DESPITE WARM GROUND TEMPS AND AIR TEMPS RIGHT AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WX ADVY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. TEMP PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THIS MORNING.
PRECIP SHOULD SHUT OFF BY AFTERNOON AS TROUGH TRANSLATES INTO ERN
OK. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND WILL LEAVE
WIND ADVY IN PLACE.

WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS A COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH
BELOW FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED AREAWIDE AND FREEZE/HARD FREEZE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE
RETURN OF SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

ANOTHER S/W TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NW AROUND MIDWEEK BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES AND ANOTHER FRONT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  61  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         24  63  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  29  63  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           22  66  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     24  61  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         31  60  38  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>025-
     027-033>038-044.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ026-028>032-
     039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ083>089.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ090.

&&

$$


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