Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 260929
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
429 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING... AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS NORTHWEST... BUT DO NOT THINK
THAT THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TOO BIG OF AN ISSUE THIS MORNING.
SO AGAIN THE HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE. AGAIN... DO NOT TRUST
THE MODEL BLEND OF PROJECTED DEWPOINTS GIVEN THAT WE HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO HANG ON TO SOME DECENT DEWPOINTS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
/THE SOMEWHAT DECREASING TREND DAY-TO-DAY NOTWITHSTANDING/ SO HAVE
KEPT DEWPOINT GRIDS HIGHER THAN THE INITIALIZATION. THE FORECAST
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE RIGHT NEAR 105 SO AGAIN WE UP RIGHT AGAINST
THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES. WILL
KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY AS IS. RIGHT NOW THE HEAT INDEX PROJECTIONS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER... BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON
THE HOW HIGH THE DEWPOINTS CAN STAY TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  98  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        102  75 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 101  76 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK          100  73 100  72 /  20  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     99  76  99  76 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK        100  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-
     050>052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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